|
Brannock posted:Hypothetically, what happens if this bubble never pops? Or if it flattens out and stays steady, never crashes? The OP will continue to  until 2089* when inflation finally makes our housing market sane again. 2189* for Vancouver. *no actual math was done to conclude these dates
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 18:00
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 18:23 |
|
|
Brannock posted:Hypothetically, what happens if this bubble never pops? Or if it flattens out and stays steady, never crashes? In about 15-20 years, children will begin to inherit the houses that their parents were unable to sell. The property taxes will be more than they can rent the property out for and the city will seize them.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 18:00
|
|
|
Brannock posted:Hypothetically, what happens if this bubble never pops? Or if it flattens out and stays steady, never crashes? Hypothetically if this bubble never pops your your 500k, 500sqft shitbox will be worth 1 million dollars in 10 years. If it flattens out and stays steady, then your shitbox will still be worth 500k. For any of these scenarios to happen, you'd have to assume that Canada's GDP does nothing or keeps magically increasing, while unemployment also keeps increasing, and our biggest trading partner's economy also stays the same.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 18:01
|
|
|
Rick Rickshaw posted:*no actual math was done to conclude these dates You'll never make fat consulting stacks if you write things like that out loud.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 18:02
|
|
|
Hey do you guys want a good reason to never read the Financial Post? http://business.financialpost.com/2014/07/30/fort-st-johns-vibrancy-and-growth-is-fuelled-by-the-natural-gas-industry/?__lsa=f9e8-03c0 Right at the bottom of this tripe:  quote:Q: How has the natural gas industry changed the regional economic outlook?  e: just so you all know  http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/natural-gas.aspx?timeframe=10y namaste friends fucked around with this message at 18:07 on Aug 6, 2014 |
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 18:04
|
|
|
National Post is reprinted garbage from company press releases and right wing think tanks. Just like all media in Canada.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 18:15
|
|
|
tsa posted:Well that's just the thing, you picked a very convenient time to start looking at trends considering up till 1980 houses hardly moved at all over the previous century (assuming Canadian housing followed a similar trend as the states, which is reasonable to think). Housing has only "always increased" if you are considering the late 80s till now, it's not some historical rule. This is easy to see in the case shiller index that is often referenced. OK but again, is that the bubble we (as in housing bears) are saying will pop? The one that started in the 80s? I mean, fine if that's the case, but a 35 year bubble is a drastically different beast than a 15 year one. Also nobody really called the entire 35 year trend a bubble. The only distinct bubbles you see (they even look like literals bubbles on the chart) are in the 80s and 2007-09. What exactly caused those? Also, phonepostin so too lazy to quote the people asking, but yes, housing "normally" is supposed to track income. The maximum mortgage you can get is limited by the down payment you can put away (and monthly of course, which also tracks income , obviously).
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 18:42
|
|
|
I compiled this from SRAR data, to complete one of the previously posted graphs (RIP Saskatoon Housing Bubble blog) I can understand a bubble in places like Toronto and Vancouver. Those are international destinations for many people. But Saskatoon?
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 19:52
|
|
|
DrLexus posted:I can understand a bubble in places like Toronto and Vancouver. Those are international destinations for many people. But Saskatoon? Vancouver and Toronto prices may be affected by foreign capital more than Saskatoon but the main reason is the increased ease of obtaining a mortgage. I'm sure that's also the reason why Saskatoon is seeing a bubble. Looks like your market is about to get hosed, Montreal style. http://saskatoon.ctvnews.ca/saskatoon-housing-inventory-at-six-year-high-realtors-1.1948144
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 20:18
|
|
|
any thoughts on how a bubble pop or deflation will affect rural or farm prices? Not sure if I've asked this question before here, but I'm hoping purchasing a farm is in my future and Garth Turner has had a few anecdotes saying that farm valuations have been coming back under offers (at which point buyers are hosed because banks only approve mortgages based on valuation. Oops!)
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 21:05
|
|
|
peter banana posted:any thoughts on how a bubble pop or deflation will affect rural or farm prices? Not sure if I've asked this question before here, but I'm hoping purchasing a farm is in my future and Garth Turner has had a few anecdotes saying that farm valuations have been coming back under offers (at which point buyers are hosed because banks only approve mortgages based on valuation. Oops!) Rural properties will collapse first. I don't know about farmland though. Kelowna has been underperforming since the great recession started.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 21:07
|
|
|
kinda figured. Another anecdote but there are a ton of farms for sale near the farm where my husband is working, getting experience before we buy. They can't give them away. Apparently old-timers list them every year just to see if they get a bite so they can retire. These ones have been on the market since he started, which is 4 months ago now. Maybe not a long time for agricultural properties, but in the process of a bubble burting, it's probably not a good sign. http://www.chestnutpark.com/properties/listing/20140270 http://www.chestnutpark.com/properties/listing/20141971 http://www.chestnutpark.com/properties/listing/20143127 http://www.chestnutpark.com/properties/listing/371240183
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 21:12
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:Rural properties will collapse first. I don't know about farmland though. Kelowna has been underperforming since the great recession started. Once you add in the complexity of things like sub-urban farmland (where you can just put a giant gently caress off home on and resell as a mansion on an acreage), or Agricultural Land Reserve speculation in BC, farmland is even goofier than normal housing. E: If you ever want a distilled taste of how incongruous Greater Vancouver housing is, drive down No. 6 Road in Richmond to the entertainment complex. Marvel at the Taj Mahals nestled in between generational sikh homes and the onion fields. Don't accidentally drive into the ditch though because it really is a terrible road. ocrumsprug fucked around with this message at 21:25 on Aug 6, 2014 |
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 21:13
|
|
|
peter banana posted:kinda figured. Another anecdote but there are a ton of farms for sale near the farm where my husband is working, getting experience before we buy. They can't give them away. Apparently old-timers list them every year just to see if they get a bite so they can retire. hahahah holy poo poo that's loving ridiculous ocrumsprug posted:Once you add in the complexity of things like sub-urban farmland (where you can just put a giant gently caress off home on and resell as a mansion on an acreage), or Agricultural Land Reserve speculation in BC, farmland is even goofier than normal housing. I don't know poo poo about farming but let's say I wanted to become one, wouldn't my primary concern be irrigation and soil constitution? Not all farmland is equally fertile right?
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 21:19
|
|
|
I've got a feeling that argriculture-zoned farmland, as opposed to farmhouses in the outer suburbs, is a market of its own. It might suffer from the aftershocks in the mortgage market, but I'd be surprised if farmland prices correlated to real estate indexes... Again, outside of the outer suburbs and hobby farms.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 21:20
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:hahahah holy poo poo that's loving ridiculous Well, it depends where you are and what you want to grow. Even then what has been grown on the land previously will have as much if not more of an effect than topography. If you want an organic vegetable CSA and your land has been cash-cropped with RoundUp Ready soy for 10 years, forget it or be prepared to spend another 10 rebuilding those nutrients. Livestock or hilariously misguided "horse farms", which I see everywhere in Ontario, are a much better option. From the top of the CN Tower, you can see 1/3 of Canada's Class 1 farmland. Most of it is suburbs now. 52% of Canada's Class 1 is in Ontario and we used to be the biggest exporter of wheat until about 10 years ago. Only 11% of the land in Canada is in agricultural use. I guess to answer your question yes, but you can build those tests into you purchase an inspection for you farm mortgage. Most farm mortgage issuers will recommend a soil test, and typically a business plan. Farm mortgages are a little different and you need at least 20%, but you don't necessarily need a farm mortgage to buy a farm, it depends on the municipality. Obviously if there's a dwelling on the land you can apply for a residential mortgage and depending on the municipality, change zoning to put up your farm store or labour house or barn or what have you. Then again, if you just buy an acreage, there are OMAFRA programs you can apply to to build new structures and get reimbursed from the province. I've actually been surprised on both ends how expensive and how cheap some farm land can be. We want to grow apples so we're sort of limited to certain regions, but there is absolutely no consistency in pricing for a 50+acre lot. Some are over $1M, some are $300k, even within the same region (Georgian Triangle, Prince Edward County, w/e). We're more concerned with the land and topography itself before region though. However, Leamington is a great, fertile place and the Heinz factory just closed, which will no doubt have an effect on the local economy.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 21:32
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:I don't know poo poo about farming but let's say I wanted to become one, wouldn't my primary concern be irrigation and soil constitution? Not all farmland is equally fertile right? As if anyone purchasing agricultural land before they are priced out forever, have any intention of farming it. (Not directed at Peter Banana.) In my forty years in BC I have heard precisely zero people thinking about buying farming land to farm on it, though that is partly selection bias. You buy farmland to sit on it until you can convince the ALR to release the land, at which point lay some road and make a subdivision. (A mall if you are in Tsawwassen.) This is how Surrey ended up with it's unique character of being unnavigable.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 21:37
|
|
|
ocrumsprug posted:E: If you ever want a distilled taste of how incongruous Greater Vancouver housing is, drive down No. 6 Road in Richmond to the entertainment complex. Marvel at the Taj Mahals nestled in between generational sikh homes and the onion fields. Don't accidentally drive into the ditch though because it really is a terrible road. I've seen this, was on my way to that trampoline place. It was farms, then huge concrete-walled compounds with Indian architecture, then more fields, then a dense patch of McMansions, then more fields, then another fortified indian palace. One of them I swear had security dudes patrolling the perimeter. Drug lord? Cult? Extremely valuable onions? I don't loving know but it's weird. Victoria seems a lot better at actually enforcing its ALR despite the development industry constantly saying it's the primary reason housing is expensive and if we just paved over every inch of Saanich farmland we'd finally have affordable housing. I've actually known 3 totally unrelated people who wanted to get into farming, all ended up having to move out of BC to find affordable farmable land where they stood a chance to make a living. Two moved to Ontario and one moved to Quebec. All really wanted to stay in BC, preferably the island or lower mainland. No chance. Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 21:49 on Aug 6, 2014 |
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 21:44
|
|
|
Thankfully the impending changes to the ALR will effectively gut it, and we can all eat condos when food import costs start to skyrocket.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 21:53
|
|
|
Rime posted:Thankfully the impending changes to the ALR will effectively gut it, and we can all eat condos when food import costs start to skyrocket. Whoa, what changes?
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 21:56
|
|
|
Even though I live in Victoria I've been 'eating local' more and more. It isn't some greenwashed fad, it's actually cheaper and I'm getting way better poo poo. Farms are rad and good food is rad. Food is everything, the very basis of civilization, I wish we respected farmers and our local farmland more. Rising fuel and transport costs is going to force that though, but until then oh gently caress stop paving over our richest farmland to build suburbs that will end up as slums or abandoned you loving idiots.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 22:00
|
|
|
peter banana posted:Livestock or hilariously misguided "horse farms", which I see everywhere in Ontario, are a much better option. There are so many horse farms north-east of Toronto the only laundromat in Uxbridge specializes in washing horse blankets.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 22:04
|
|
|
One of the joys of living in Seattle is shopping at Trader Joes.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 22:06
|
|
|
well there's no reason people who live on 1/8 acre in suburbia couldn't have backyard chickens (most municipalities don't allow them, though) or an edible garden. This is American data, but in Joel Salatin's book "Folks, This Ain't Normal" he cites that before 1950 almost half of the produce consumed was grown at home. Except for the fact that I mostly associate the suburbs with giving up on life and outsourcing even more of your personality to chain restaurants and retail plazas. But suburbanites could, theoretically, grow their own! Maybe! If some regulations were repealed! That didn't sound as hopeful as I wanted it to.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 22:07
|
|
|
I was reading somewhere that hipsters aren't raising chickens in their backyards anymore because they realized the coops attracted rats.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 22:10
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:Whoa, what changes? They're effectively gutting it, removing all prohibitions against Oil & Gas exploration on ALR zoned land for example. I imagine the drought in California this year is going to remind people abruptly that it was only about forty or fifty years ago that most produce in BC was seasonal and locally grown.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 22:13
|
|
|
Yeah, agricultural land use needs to be given serious teeth and probably needs to be merged with environmental protections with the understanding that farmers need flexibility on managing their land. Or we just need to straight up creating agricultural preserves. The only thing that might stop the paving of farmland would probably be for the housing bubble to finally pop.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 22:14
|
|
|
this loving country
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 22:15
|
|
|
Baronjutter posted:Even though I live in Victoria I've been 'eating local' more and more. It isn't some greenwashed fad, it's actually cheaper and I'm getting way better poo poo. Farms are rad and good food is rad. Food is everything, the very basis of civilization, I wish we respected farmers and our local farmland more. Rising fuel and transport costs is going to force that though, but until then oh gently caress stop paving over our richest farmland to build suburbs that will end up as slums or abandoned you loving idiots. that's cool. You're cool. You can come to my farm. Cultural Imperial posted:this loving country
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 22:19
|
|
|
Dreylad posted:Or we just need to straight up creating agricultural preserves. The only thing that might stop the paving of farmland would probably be for the housing bubble to finally pop. This would be a temporary reprieve at best, as building condo's will always be the way to make more money this year. Agricultural preserves should be maintained with an iron-fist (while still letting farmers do things) in order to kill the speculation.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 22:23
|
|
|
peter banana posted:that's cool. You're cool. You can come to my farm. Do you grow blueberries?? I've basically been living off fresh blueberries. I got some in a panic at the supermarket after hearing they got in some "fresh local" stuff but they had zero taste. I could feel that they were in my mouth but no taste. They were also some how more expensive than the ones at the farm market.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 22:24
|
|
|
Hey lookee here https://www.biv.com/article/20140805/BIV0101/308059995/-1/BIV/farmers-suspicious-of-new-two-tiered-system-for-alr quote:British Columbia farmers, ranchers, fruit growers and vineyard owners generated $2.8 billion in 2012, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 22:31
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:“Developing and marketing land in the Interior of B.C. is so cost-prohibitive now that you cannot make a buck.” How outrageous!
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 22:36
|
|
|
Baronjutter posted:Do you grow blueberries?? I've basically been living off fresh blueberries. I got some in a panic at the supermarket after hearing they got in some "fresh local" stuff but they had zero taste. I could feel that they were in my mouth but no taste. They were also some how more expensive than the ones at the farm market. we will! We'll need them for flavouring our hard cider! I make blueberry pie so good it'll make you re-evaluate your life.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 22:36
|
|
|
quote:Across the lake from the village of Burton on Arrow Lake in the Kootenays is 340 acres of beautiful waterfront property that is locked within the Agricultural Land Reserve (ALR). This is straight up bullshit, the Arrow Lakes flooded some of the most fertile agricultural land on the entire continent and this is what is left. Everyone in BC should watch The Reckoning to understand the various ways in which the Columbia River Treaty hosed this province, especially since the recent LNG aspirations are very similar.
|
|
#
?
Aug 6, 2014 23:00
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:this loving country Empty quoting this Also: Oil! Oil! Oil! Professor Shark fucked around with this message at 00:09 on Aug 7, 2014 |
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2014 00:06
|
|
|
Mr. Wynand posted:
What I would like to see is a graph of housing prices over the years against total income + credit. We see housing increases far surpass that of income because we ignore the fact that in the last thirty years available credit has increased dramatically.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2014 04:01
|
|
|
.
Sassafras fucked around with this message at 09:59 on Aug 9, 2014 |
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2014 08:25
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/497461141443207170 There is a pdf report embedded in this Tweet by rbc about why household net worth is increasing. It's all due to debt.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2014 22:37
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 18:23 |
|
|
http://www.canadianrealestatemagazine.ca/news/item/2119-foolish-investors-are-not-looking-for-value-real-estate-guru-saysquote:Investors are being fooled by big promises of price appreciation and not looking at where the buying value and cash-flow is. And it’s not going to end well, says one experienced landlord. Lol Winnipeg. I'm posting this from here right now. gently caress this shithole town. This article should be notable because it's in a REALTOR publication.
|
|
#
?
Aug 7, 2014 22:46
|
|