Fantasy Football 2014: Barely More Accurate Than Flipping a Coin

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Sports Argument Stadium > The Armchair Quarterback > Fantasy Football 2014: Barely More Accurate Than Flipping a Coin

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Deer_fire: Jul 30, 2003

Kazak_Hstan posted:

I brought up Josh Gordon because like Gronk, he's immensely talented and will faceroll if he's on the field, but there is no way of knowing whether he will play this year.

I never said Gronk is only worth a four or fifth round WR, I said, a person who owns Gronk can make a plausible valuation at that level. Personally, I wouldn't trade Gronk for DeSean, but I don't think a person is an idiot if they do, especially without knowing their entire roster.

Arian Foster is a great example. He's going 12th in espn adp, gio bernard, reggie bush, antonio brown are all going around 30. If I had Foster, who I don't believe in one bit, I would trade him straight up for any of those three. Am I an idiot / is that presumptively collusion just because of the gap in adp? I don't think so. I might wind up being wrong about Arian, but I can make a straight face argument that Arian is made of balsa wood and will break, and that that I am better off with a guy going in the 3rd / 4th.

That's cool and all, and I don't disagree with what you're saying even, but if you draft Gronk in the 2nd and then 24 hours later turn around and trade him for DJax straight up? Uhhh, no. That's where this trade gets shady for me.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 19:08

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# ? Jun 8, 2024 06:09

RCarr: Dec 24, 2007

Yea, it's either collusion or just plain trade rape. Maybe talk to her and see what she has to say?

# ? Aug 26, 2014 19:12

GaussianCopula: Jun 5, 2011; Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

Tiptoes posted:

Don't bother with Tim Wright. The Pats needed depth at the Move TE position because they didn't have one before this. He's not a Gronk replacement. His value last year was because he was lining up in the slot for TB but the Pats have WAY better slot guys. He's a marginal role player.

They traded Logan Mankins, who is a cornerstone of their offensive line, for this guy. They must see something in this kid.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 19:32

Marshmallow Blue: Apr 25, 2010

GaussianCopula posted:

They traded Logan Mankins, who is a cornerstone of their offensive line, for this guy. They must see something in this kid.

yeah, but what about fantasy relevance.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 19:38

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

The Patriots pass catching corps is Vereen, Gronk, and then five big question marks.

I'm not saying Tim Wright is going to be the next Hernandez, but it's not like he needs to climb the Mount Everest of depth charts.

Also:

@Chet_G posted:

Patriots picked up Woodhead Sept 18 he was starting Sept 26

# ? Aug 26, 2014 19:39

Tiptoes: Apr 30, 2006; You are my underwater, underwater friends!

GaussianCopula posted:

They traded Logan Mankins, who is a cornerstone of their offensive line, for this guy. They must see something in this kid.

That was done because of contract/cap considerations. They also got a 4th round pick back.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 19:43

Matt Zerella: Oct 7, 2002; Norris'es are back baby. It's good again. Awoouu (fox Howl)

Y'all are completely ignoring the real news with this trade, the Bucs just helped their Oline which boosts Martin/VJAX.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 19:43

Teemu Pokemon: Jun 19, 2004; To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause

Amendola is made of glass, Edleman kinda proved last year that he doesn't need to be in the slot to be effective, Welker and Hernandez proved a few years ago that two guys like that an co-exist in the Patriots offense, and Wright already showed ability last year under much more unfavorable conditions.

If you need a TE and/or have an open bench spot, I'd definitely give him a look just to see.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 19:44

Sleazy P: Aug 31, 2006; Giving aids back to the monkeys.

I picked up Kelce in the last round as a back up to Pitta because I liked his upside, but I'm seriously considering dropping him for Wright now.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 19:46

Marshmallow Blue: Apr 25, 2010

Franks Happy Place posted:

The Patriots pass catching corps is Vereen, Gronk, and then five big question marks.

I'm not saying Tim Wright is going to be the next Hernandez, but it's not like he needs to climb the Mount Everest of depth charts.

Also:

I think the question marks would be Dobson and Thompkins, but Edelman and Amendola (when healthy) aren't questions at all. Even devlin is showing flashes of skill in the preseason out of the backfield (however much that counts).

# ? Aug 26, 2014 19:46

Gyshall: Feb 24, 2009; Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

LmaoTheKid posted:

Y'all are completely ignoring the real news with this trade, the Bucs just helped their Oline which boosts Martin/VJAX.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 19:46

Teemu Pokemon: Jun 19, 2004; To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause

Sleazy P posted:

I picked up Kelce in the last round as a back up to Pitta because I liked his upside, but I'm seriously considering dropping him for Wright now.

I just did.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 19:48

Varg: Jan 13, 2007; A friendly face.

LmaoTheKid posted:

Y'all are completely ignoring the real news with this trade, the Bucs just helped their Oline which boosts Martin/VJAX.

was gonna post this

# ? Aug 26, 2014 19:48

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Marshmallow Blue posted:

I think the question marks would be Dobson and Thompkins, but Edelman and Amendola (when healthy) aren't questions at all. Even devlin is showing flashes of skill in the preseason out of the backfield (however much that counts).

Edelman is adequate but did dick all with a bazillion targets last year, aka "Just Another Guy" syndrome. Amendola being made of glass is exactly what makes him a question mark.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 19:48

Gyshall: Feb 24, 2009; Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Edelman is actually p. good in PPR leagues

# ? Aug 26, 2014 19:53

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Gyshall posted:

Edelman is actually p. good in PPR leagues

Which is why PPR is dumb. That one game where Edelman had like 13 catches for 75 yards last year was my favourite moment of the year.

Like I said, he's not bad, he's just nothing special. If Wright was a serious depth chart challenger because he started playing really well, Edelman is a speed bump. Even if you think Edelman stays involved in the offense (he probably will), there's still plenty of business to go around, as we saw with Gronk/Hernandez/Welker/Woodhead.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 19:56

ZIGfried: Nov 4, 2005; I can hardly contain myself!

Sleazy P posted:

I picked up Kelce in the last round as a back up to Pitta because I liked his upside, but I'm seriously considering dropping him for Wright now.

I also own Pitta with a Kelce chaser. Still like Kelce and his situation better.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 19:57

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

I'd call Kelce vs. Wright a wash. Wright has a pro season under his belt, Kelce has been practicing with the team all camp/pre-season and the Chiefs are desperate for pass catchers.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 19:58

Papes: Apr 13, 2010; There's always something at the bottom of the bag.

Man my Martin pick in the 3rd is looking pretty solid now

# ? Aug 26, 2014 20:20

Sleazy P: Aug 31, 2006; Giving aids back to the monkeys.

Yeah I'm still waffling with Kelce/Wright. The thing edging me towards Wright is the fact he's potentially a Gronk injury away from a big jump in relevance.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 20:21

Amergin: Jan 29, 2013; THE SOUND A WET FART MAKES

b0ng posted:

I've noticed a lot of people who are picking the Texans DST. Why? The offense is going to be really poor and is going to put that defense in a lot of no-win situations. I also don't think they are going to get many picks as both of their safeties are pretty bad. The CB's are okay, but outside of Watt and Clowney I don't really see another guy who is going to get a lot of sacks.

Previous page but I wanted to point out they actually have a few decent pairings early in the season. Week 1 vs. Redskins, which hurts (but if you can nab the Chiefs DST they have a great week 1), but then they go Raiders wk2, Giants wk3, Bills wk 4. They're a pretty decent pickup for that 3-game stretch in my mind and should be easy to pick up since many folks got burned by them last year and don't want to touch them.

Plus, Watt + Clowney = sack points for days.

EDIT: Then you dump them after week 4 and stream: they have the Cowboys, Colts and Steelers weeks 5-7.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 20:33

GaussianCopula: Jun 5, 2011; Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

Aaron Hernandez rookie season (2010): 45-563-6 with QB Tom Brady
Tim Wright rookie season (2013): 54-571-5 with QBs Josh Freeman (currently unemployed), Mike Glennon (currently backup QB behind McGloin)

# ? Aug 26, 2014 20:34

Kloaked00: Jun 21, 2005; I was sitting in my office on that drizzly afternoon listening to the monotonous staccato of rain on my desk and reading my name on the glass of my office door: regnaD kciN

Which two of the following would you want for your starting RBs?: Murray, Ball, Le'Veon, Foster, Gio, Zac, Martin

# ? Aug 26, 2014 20:41

headcase: Sep 28, 2001

What about Wright over Jordan Reed in Dynasty? Over reaction?

# ? Aug 26, 2014 20:42

Diqnol: May 10, 2010

headcase posted:

What about Wright over Jordan Reed in Dynasty? Over reaction?

Yes. Big time.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 20:43

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

If I had a married couple in my league, I would force them to only trade with each other.

e:

Forever_Peace posted:

I've decided to keep an eye on Storm Johnson in keeper leagues this year (just picked him up in the SAS dynasty league). Here's my reasoning:

1) He's showing pretty good vision on tape, and has really great burst off the cut once he gets to the open field. He's also plenty creative, which is hard to teach.
2) He already has rapport with Bortles, who should take over within a year or two.
3) He can catch the ball, and Bortles already likes him as a pressure valve.
4) The people "ahead" of him at RB are Toby Gerhart, Jordan Todman and Denard Robinson. They've been pretty clear that Todman and Robinson are change of pace backs, which already puts Johnson as the successor to Gerhart. So now the question isn't just whether or not you like Storm, but how good you think Toby actually is?
5) He can return the ball (disclosure: this is from a scrimmage)
6) He's 6' tall and over 200 pounds, but he runs low and agile (if a little tight). He's exactly the sort of runner that's perfect for the Jags O-line.
7) People smarter than me like him.
8) He's probably sitting on your WW right now (nfl.com shows him as owned in all of 0.1% of leagues).

Problems:
1) He's slow for a feature back (but again, does have great burst).
2) He runs exclusively with his right hand on the ball, and as a consequence has poor ball security.
3) He needs to work on his pass blocking.
4) Word out of camp is that he's over thinking things, and not trusting his instincts enough.

If Gerhart disappoints, and/or you start to hear the magical word "improved" about his blocking and fumbling problems, you may want to pick him up at the end of the season as a keeper for next year. Don't bother with him in redraft leagues for now.

I'm quoting this post so I can find it later during the inevitable "oh god I'm hosed and everybody's dead" phase of the season

3 DONG HORSE fucked around with this message at 20:45 on Aug 26, 2014

# ? Aug 26, 2014 20:43

RTM: May 21, 2001; hewwo!

Had my first draft of the season last night and already have a trade offer of my Brandon Marshall for his Montee Ball. League is 8 teams, 2QB, .5ppr. Here are our teams:

His team:
QB Nick Foles
QB Jay Cutler
RB Jamaal Charles
RB DeMarco Murray
WR Roddy White
WR Wes Welker
TE Rob Gronkowski
FLEX Montee Ball
D/ST Bills D/ST
K Phil Dawson
Bench Colin Kaepernick
Bench Ryan Mathews
Bench Shane Vereen
Bench Eric Decker
Bench Terrance Williams
Bench Dwayne Bowe

My Team:
QB Peyton Manning
QB Matthew Stafford
RB Le'Veon Bell
RB Zac Stacy
WR Dez Bryant
WR Brandon Marshall
TE Jordan Cameron
FLEX Toby Gerhart
D/ST Lions D/ST
K Adam Vinatieri
Bench Michael Crabtree
Bench Joique Bell
Bench Kendall Wright
Bench Mike Wallace
Bench Lamar Miller
Bench Josh Gordon

I could use a decent RB1 since I waited a few rounds to pick my RB's (drafted 3rd spot, went QB/QB/WR/WR) so I'm leaning towards taking it. Thoughts?

# ? Aug 26, 2014 20:44

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Kloaked00 posted:

Which two of the following would you want for your starting RBs?: Murray, Ball, Le'Veon, Foster, Gio, Zac, Martin

Ball and whichever one of Murray, Bernard, Stacy or Martin you prefer. My personal rankings would be Stacy > Bernard > Murray > Martin. If Martin has a good Week 4 preseason game, I might bump him up a notch.

Bell and Foster are a big 'ole Do Not Want.

headcase posted:

What about Wright over Jordan Reed in Dynasty? Over reaction?

I'd wait to see if Belichick intends to actually use Wright or not. If he does, then yeah, I could see taking a guy with Aaron Hernandez upside over a dude catching passes from RGIII who also has a history of brutal concussions. Get out before he goes Jahvid Best on us, etc.

But for now, keep your powder dry.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 20:45

GaussianCopula: Jun 5, 2011; Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

Kloaked00 posted:

Which two of the following would you want for your starting RBs?: Murray, Ball, Le'Veon, Foster, Gio, Zac, Martin

Ball and Martin or Gio. Mankins is a great run blocker (but sucks in pass blocking the last years) which should push Martin over Gio, assuming no PPR.

headcase posted:

What about Wright over Jordan Reed in Dynasty? Over reaction?

Over reaction in my opinion. Reed is only one year older and has actually produced on his team and has no real competition there. Wright is a gamble.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 20:47

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

GaussianCopula posted:

Aaron Hernandez rookie season (2010): 45-563-6 with QB Tom Brady
Tim Wright rookie season (2013): 54-571-5 with QBs Josh Freeman (currently unemployed), Mike Glennon (currently backup QB behind McGloin)

Josh McCown. McGloin is on the Raiders.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 20:49

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

Kloaked00 posted:

Which two of the following would you want for your starting RBs?: Murray, Ball, Le'Veon, Foster, Gio, Zac, Martin

Murray, Ball

# ? Aug 26, 2014 20:50

kiimo: Jul 24, 2003

Kelce's upside is gargantuan, just saying.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 20:52

keldegar: Sep 27, 2004; what, you don't like pizza?

Pick up Brandon McManus for 4 weeks

# ? Aug 26, 2014 20:56

Its Miller Time: Dec 4, 2004

Pierre Thomas, Bishop Sankey, Golden Tate or Terrance Williams for a flex option?

MFL10s, 2rb/3wr/1 flex, PPR.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 20:56

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

Its Miller Time posted:

Pierre Thomas, Bishop Sankey, Golden Tate or Terrance Williams for a flex option?

MFL10s, 2rb/3wr/1 flex, PPR.

Gonna go Tate here.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 20:58

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

3 keepers, 0.5 ppr 10 teams; roster QB, 2RB, 2WR, W/T, R/W/T, D, K, 5B, 1IR:

Cutler (14th)
Peterson (1st+1)
Lacy (3rd)
Nelson (6th)
Boldin (7th)
Welker (2nd)
Gronk (4th)

If I keep those three, they count as a 1/2/6 during the draft. I'm considering Gronk since I've seen him go high in every draft this year, but I feel like Nelson for a 6th is too good to pass up.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 21:01

Combo: Aug 19, 2003

Its Miller Time posted:

Pierre Thomas, Bishop Sankey, Golden Tate or Terrance Williams for a flex option?

MFL10s, 2rb/3wr/1 flex, PPR.

I like Thomas for PPR.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 21:02

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Josh Gordon decision (apparently) incoming. :siren:

@ItsFillar posted:

Schefter just said on SC that he's heard Gordon decision has been made and Henderson just needs to decide when to issue it. #takeyourtime

# ? Aug 26, 2014 21:08

3 DONG HORSE: May 22, 2008; I'd like to thank Satan for everything he's done for this organization

Franks Happy Place posted:

Josh Gordon decision (apparently) incoming.

Oh god oh god oh god I hope this turns into the best FA pick up in history :ohdear:

# ? Aug 26, 2014 21:11

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# ? Jun 8, 2024 06:09

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

If anything the crazy loving delay helps his injunction chances, since it's a 365 day suspension, and they've dragged this out so long he'll end up missing camp next year.

# ? Aug 26, 2014 21:11

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