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Grand Theft Autobot posted:So what you're saying is that building tons of office parks and buildings in order to create a supply of tenant businesses was an rear end-backwards idea? Well when your supply far exceeds demand what do you think will happen? Take your time.
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# ? Aug 30, 2014 06:26 |
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# ? May 13, 2024 09:29 |
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Jesus loving christ is everything fake in China? http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d72ec42a-2f87-11e4-83e4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3BoXMoz00 quote:
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# ? Aug 30, 2014 06:31 |
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^^Wow that sounds like it could be pretty bad news.Fall Sick and Die posted:It was less a case of white knighting and more a case of you being retarded and using the wrong "you're" when you were defending the Queen's English Hahaha I just noticed that. It's hardly "defending the Queen's English" to point out the difference between the adjective and noun form to someone, but whatever makes you feel good I guess. You seem to be under the impression that I was trying to poo poo on someone when I was just trying to be helpful.
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# ? Aug 30, 2014 06:36 |
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Speaking of hilarious deliveries, anyone remember Diablo 3? Well the video game was banned in China and sellers/buyers used the code word Da Bo Luo 3. Which literally meant 3 pineapples. Well some nerd paid double the price for the American version of 3 pineapples expecting he will get the game. Nope, he 3 got 3 dole pineapples
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# ? Aug 30, 2014 06:45 |
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Not the first time Dole has crushed the dreams of foreigners in the pursuit of profits.
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# ? Aug 30, 2014 06:47 |
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caberham posted:Speaking of hilarious deliveries, anyone remember Diablo 3? Well the video game was banned in China and sellers/buyers used the code word Da Bo Luo 3. Which literally meant 3 pineapples. Hilarious. Anyone brought an iPhone 5 got 5 bags of Apples instead? I also heard a joke on Taobao goes like this, "One day a buyer ordered a phone from a Taobao seller with a slogan 'Guaranteed authentic, one fake gets ten in compensation!' which is a very popular phrase on Taobao . He opened the delivery package, 11 phones fell out..."
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# ? Aug 30, 2014 13:11 |
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Sounds like Taobao's ranking algorithms are actually at fault.
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# ? Aug 30, 2014 13:15 |
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paragon1 posted:^^Wow that sounds like it could be pretty bad news. No one is upset at you, we're just laughing cuz now you look dumb.
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# ? Aug 30, 2014 18:22 |
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It sounds like most of the Chinese economy is living in a bubble, where only growth matters and everything else is secondary.
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# ? Aug 30, 2014 18:45 |
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Except that it's doubtful it's really growing that much anymore.
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# ? Aug 30, 2014 18:46 |
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http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1440...l#axzz3Dy7nw5Ryquote:China risks ‘balance-sheet recession’ as stimulus impact wanes
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# ? Sep 21, 2014 17:38 |
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So basically it's Japan Round Two: Electric Boogaloo?
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 02:55 |
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Not exactly - Japan had well regulated markets. China has some crazy-rear end side-lending of unknown dimensions. So if person X can't get a loan at the wrong time, then the side-lending for Y and Z collapse, and it's... really kind of unpredictable. House of dominos stuff.
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 04:50 |
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Okay so it's Japan Round Two: Electric Boogaloo, now with even more incredibly unstable mega-bubbles?
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 05:03 |
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icantfindaname posted:Okay so it's Japan Round Two: Electric Boogaloo, now with even more incredibly unstable mega-bubbles? Its Japan's balance sheet recession to the power of the American housing bubble.
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 05:19 |
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It's a good thing they stockpiled a lot of USD. Crash gold already so the rest of us can laugh you crazy bastards! It's time.
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 07:58 |
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This has been said before, but it bears repeating; China can't do poo poo with its foreign reserves to deal with its debt crisis. Since the liabilities are ultimately denominated in RMB, using USD for an intervention would result in a bunch of companies and financial institutions going to the People's Bank of China looking to exchange their USD for RMB. This leads back to the government's original problem of trying to generate a bunch of RMB without causing other serious problems in the economy.
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 09:09 |
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Well, here's my crazy rant on this, I know the Chinese are weird, overvalue land ,gold, ivory, semi rare weeds. They try crazy things like trying to corner the rare earths market, prop up that rare weed thing, solar panels. I mean what do you want? Returns are gonna be bad. Like this is systemic thing, capitalism only seems better because it's been going longer, more loot, reforms and entrenchments. So print those Yuan. It's really too late to be worried about over leveraging for anyone. Speculate away, this is part of the growth process apparently. The West has had decades to build up, while China worked the factory, they control cutting edge poo poo while China has to steal and catch up. You expect it to compete at the high premium, high end markets? Where else would high returns be coming from? There's a global good old boys club called white people. Globalization is a lie. I means it's hard to sell poo poo when people are afraid you'll spy on them, think your education numbers aren't really true, think you only make cheap mass produce stuff, take their jobs, drive up home prices, violate human rights; I see a lot of negative Chinese reporting, that has to affect closing deals. The government isn't blameless of course, but colonial times extracted a huge toll that will take several generations to rebuild. Trading for USD was much smarter than trading for silver. They can still buy stuff on the global markets, gives people something to do. Build up that military, that seems profitable, everyone's doing it. Stay the course. This council of elders/quasi dictatorship was probably not destined for greatness anyways; but it did bet on a good horse, is what I am saying; thanks Nixon! Femur fucked around with this message at 12:48 on Sep 22, 2014 |
# ? Sep 22, 2014 12:36 |
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At this rate I'd give the current Communist regime...oh...20-30 years before it implodes into a democracy centered in Hong Kong minus TIbet and Uighuristan. Given that the retirement of the revolutionary generation causes massive socioeconomic upheval.
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 14:04 |
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Grouchio posted:At this rate I'd give the current Communist regime...oh...20-30 years before it implodes into a democracy centered in Hong Kong minus TIbet and Uighuristan. Given that the retirement of the revolutionary generation causes massive socioeconomic upheval. HKers really are the most self centered people in the world.
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 14:41 |
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Grouchio posted:At this rate I'd give the current Communist regime...oh...20-30 years before it implodes into a democracy centered in Hong Kong minus TIbet and Uighuristan. Given that the retirement of the revolutionary generation causes massive socioeconomic upheval. No one ever remembers Inner Mongolia and Taiwan. China's survived this long as it is. I doubt it's going to collapse because people spent their life savings on crappy apartments, golden Guanyin statues, and Audis. It'll probably go into a period of stagnation like all of its neighbors, desperately trying to keep its economy going by building stuff. The Chinese people generally hate the Chinese Communist Party, even members who aren't at the top admit this, but they love the nation state of China. The Qing committed genocide to bring Xinjiang into China, I would argue that the current regime or some hypothetical one doing the same to keep it within China wouldn't be a stretch. No one knows what will happen to Tibetan independence once the Dalai Lama dies as well. He's already said he won't likely be reincarnating so who knows what that will do to the movement. Even then, the Tibetans are not asking for independence because it would be impossible.
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 15:40 |
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Grouchio posted:At this rate I'd give the current Communist regime...oh...20-30 years before it implodes into a democracy centered in Hong Kong minus TIbet and Uighuristan. Given that the retirement of the revolutionary generation causes massive socioeconomic upheval. If PRC imploded Hong Kong would become a city state again way, way, way before they decided to become an administrative beartrap ruling over a failed state. Like they'd just Bugs-Bunny any attachment to short and float out to sea.
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 15:57 |
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RocknRollaAyatollah posted:He's already said he won't likely be reincarnating so who knows what that will do to the movement. This is a bit off topic, but isn't that an incredibly arrogant thing for him to say? Doesn't that mean that he thinks that he, of all the Dalai Lamas that have ever been, was the one to finally reach enlightenment? Or is it one of those things that every Lama says and then the Panchen Lama just says "whoops, guess he was wrong, the new Dalai Lama is right over there"?
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 17:11 |
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I don't think it's at all given that a democratic China would have kept and continued to oppress Xinjiang/Tibet/Inner Mongolia, or that the Nationalists wouldn't have given up power. I don't think enough information exists to make such a prediction, like with many things in China, and speculation is therefore useless at best. At the same time I don't think the information really exists to think that the CCP won't give up power eventually. Even if it takes more than in South Korea and Taiwan, which is probably likely.
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 18:01 |
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icantfindaname posted:I don't think it's at all given that a democratic China would have kept and continued to oppress Xinjiang/Tibet/Inner Mongolia, or that the Nationalists wouldn't have given up power. I don't think enough information exists to make such a prediction, like with many things in China, and speculation is therefore useless at best. Taking away everything else the single fact that the Himalayas supply a huge part of China's water supply will guarantee that tibet will never be a independent state .
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 18:04 |
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The demographic cehanges they're engineering mean that Tibetans and Uigurs are already minorities in their own homelands, and that's not even getting to the "job creation programs" and similar projects they're setting up to try and move then breed them out by targeting young women, etc.. Also I doubt a democracy will actually do anything to protect minority groups considering the average Han Chinese is already super racist and probably cheers every action the government takes w/r/t minorities.
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 18:45 |
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LeftistMuslimObama posted:This is a bit off topic, but isn't that an incredibly arrogant thing for him to say? Doesn't that mean that he thinks that he, of all the Dalai Lamas that have ever been, was the one to finally reach enlightenment? Or is it one of those things that every Lama says and then the Panchen Lama just says "whoops, guess he was wrong, the new Dalai Lama is right over there"? It is an attempt to delegitimize his state endorsed replacement when he dies. I am not very knowledgable about Tibetan Buddhism but I am fairly certain that the Dalai Lama reincarnates of his own volition in order to fulfill the role of spiritual leader. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 18:55 |
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LeftistMuslimObama posted:This is a bit off topic, but isn't that an incredibly arrogant thing for him to say? Doesn't that mean that he thinks that he, of all the Dalai Lamas that have ever been, was the one to finally reach enlightenment? Or is it one of those things that every Lama says and then the Panchen Lama just says "whoops, guess he was wrong, the new Dalai Lama is right over there"? The Dalai Lama is a Bodhisattva which means "he" achieved enlightenment a long time ago in a previous incarnation and he has chosen not to cease existing but rather to continue returning to Earth to show other people the path to enlightenment, which is considered a sacrifice on his part.
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 19:02 |
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The Dalai Lamas have always had that choice. The Dalai Lama has always been on the cusp of moving on to the next stage, hence why they're the Dalai Lama. There's historical precedence for it too so it's not like he's just making things up. The Dalai Lama is also a more recent part of Tibetan culture and isn't integral to a Tibetan state within or without China. He's doing it to give more power to the secular government in exile and to take away the ability of China to claim the new Dalai Lama. China by law has the power to control all reincarnation within China. So if you want to talk about assholes claiming cosmic power they have no right to, Zhongnanhai is right up your alley. Edit: ^That is probably a bit more accurate description of the theological status of the Dalai Lama. RocknRollaAyatollah fucked around with this message at 19:14 on Sep 22, 2014 |
# ? Sep 22, 2014 19:12 |
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Fall Sick and Die posted:The Dalai Lama is a Bodhisattva which means "he" achieved enlightenment a long time ago in a previous incarnation and he has chosen not to cease existing but rather to continue returning to Earth to show other people the path to enlightenment, which is considered a sacrifice on his part. I see, that makes more sense. He's basically boycotting reincarnation until Tibet is free. RocknRollaAyatollah posted:China by law has the power to control all reincarnation within China. So if you want to talk about assholes claiming cosmic power they have no right to, Zhongnanhai is right up your alley. This makes me laugh uncontrollably.
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 19:13 |
CIGNX posted:This has been said before, but it bears repeating; China can't do poo poo with its foreign reserves to deal with its debt crisis. Since the liabilities are ultimately denominated in RMB, using USD for an intervention would result in a bunch of companies and financial institutions going to the People's Bank of China looking to exchange their USD for RMB. This leads back to the government's original problem of trying to generate a bunch of RMB without causing other serious problems in the economy. And it won't happen because China has been using the purchases to keep RMB low compared to USD. A bunch of USD floating around trying to buy RMB means the USD won't buy you as much in China and that is bad news for exporters.
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 19:27 |
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Shifty Pony posted:And it won't happen because China has been using the purchases to keep RMB low compared to USD. A bunch of USD floating around trying to buy RMB means the USD won't buy you as much in China and that is bad news for exporters. Granted, the question will the Chinese government expand the monetary supply through even more lending to state banks and local governments and simply flood the balance sheets like Japan did? It seems like that is for the most part their course of action so far. That said, it is unclear if they would be any more successful than Japan was beyond maybe further increases in productivity. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 20:09 on Sep 22, 2014 |
# ? Sep 22, 2014 20:03 |
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Ardennes posted:Granted, the question will the Chinese government expand the monetary supply through even more lending to state banks and local governments and simply flood the balance sheets like Japan did? It seems like that is for the most part their course of action so far. http://online.wsj.com/articles/china-pboc-injects-81-billion-into-top-banks-1410914151 81 billion last week.
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 20:12 |
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Cultural Imperial posted:http://online.wsj.com/articles/china-pboc-injects-81-billion-into-top-banks-1410914151 That seems to be their course of action so far, but it is difficult to tell its effectiveness considering the notorious nature of statistics. GDP growth may never go down below 7%, regardless of what happens.
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 20:17 |
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Ardennes posted:Granted, the question will the Chinese government expand the monetary supply through even more lending to state banks and local governments and simply flood the balance sheets like Japan did? It seems like that is for the most part their course of action so far. The increased lending isn't their solution to their debt crisis, precisely because increased lending is how they got into the debt crisis in the first place. The lack of actual risk assessment combined with the corrupt and political nature of lending by the state banks hasn't changed substantially since 2009, so I don't see how doing the exact same thing in 2014 will have completely opposite results. In other words, loans to unprofitable projects now can never pay back the loans to unprofitable projects from previous years. But, of course, this appears to be what the CCP thinks it can do for its debt crisis. And this really is a product of factionalism and corruption in the CCP, in my uneducated opinion anyway. Any attempt to deal with the corruption that lead to this debt bubble would be a massive undertaking requiring the backing of prominent political factions in the CCP. But all of the political factions get their power in part from the money they earn through corruption. None of them would realistically give up this basis for political power, and there would be a lot of everyone-but-mine sort of thinking if they ever consented to genuine corruption fighting. Since political action in China is based on political consensus from these factions, nothing proactive or substantial will ever be done to deal with this debt crisis. At best this system is suited only to react to major crises, not prevent them. All the leadership can really do is stay the course of more lending and announce token changes for the purposes of domestic consumption.
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 20:54 |
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China's productivity has a lot more room to grow than Japan's though, for example they could put tiny holes in the bottom of all tea cups and remove beds from offices.
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# ? Sep 22, 2014 22:05 |
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Fall Sick and Die posted:China's productivity has a lot more room to grow than Japan's though, for example they could put tiny holes in the bottom of all tea cups and remove beds from offices. It's hard for people to work if you take away their desks. Failing that, abolish unofficial siesta time. China will never be able to up its productivity right now because that would require the country to have realistic hiring and employment policies. The system isn't designed for quality, it's designed for quantity, and I would wager it's topped or topping out. I would honestly say their best bet is hold through the recession, build up the rural areas, and wait for the population drop that's coming.
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# ? Sep 23, 2014 04:42 |
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RocknRollaAyatollah posted:I would honestly say their best bet is hold through the recession, build up the rural areas, and wait for the population drop that's coming. How feasible is that, though, for a government whose sole source of actual legitimacy is "we'll make you richer"?
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# ? Sep 24, 2014 08:50 |
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RocknRollaAyatollah posted:China will never be able to up its productivity right now because that would require the country to have realistic hiring and employment policies. The system isn't designed for quality, it's designed for quantity, and I would wager it's topped or topping out. I would honestly say their best bet is hold through the recession, build up the rural areas, and wait for the population drop that's coming. Yeah what does any of this even mean.
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# ? Sep 24, 2014 12:25 |
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# ? May 13, 2024 09:29 |
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Arglebargle III posted:Yeah what does any of this even mean. China, as well as the other countries in East Asia, pad their employment statistics. This leads to inefficiency because businesses over hire and do not use many of the automation techniques most post industrial societies use. Automation and greater integration of computers would streamline production and probably up productivity. It would mean less jobs and corruption though so it will never happen until the population begins to decline. This is all theoretical too because Japan still operates on this model despite it being pointed out that it's not going to work anymore. Experts are saying the population should drop below 1 billion by 2050 but I've also read that China doesn't want this to happen for some reason. A net population drop is a good thing for China and would only increase its production levels. If China can stay afloat financially and continue to expand infrastructure into the regions that have almost nothing, the rural poor have a chance at education and a job other than being unskilled labor. China is already reaching the point where factory labor is becoming "too expensive" and that's a sign that China is transitioning. If those areas don't get brought up, those people will be left behind even more than they already have been. What jobs will the rural poor have if the world is becoming less reliant on China for factory labor? Daduzi posted:How feasible is that, though, for a government whose sole source of actual legitimacy is "we'll make you richer"? I would argue that the greater source of legitimacy is protection from external threats like the USA, Japan, South Korea, and anyone else the state media wants to present as a threat. Once the PLA loses to an external or internal threat, the CCP is hosed. Economic problems can be blamed on scapegoats and Xi is cleaning out the party as it is. If the economy tanks tomorrow, Xi will have people to blame and they'll all be disposed of before people can question it.
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# ? Sep 25, 2014 02:43 |