|
Doomtalker posted:Counterpoint- rent's gotta be paid, mortgage isn't going to go away. Heat is a must in winter, and food is a must at all times. Most people have no cash reserves, and that means going to work regardless. Even when the state has been shut down for blizzards and the Boston Bombing, retail guys still had to go to work. If the options are risk ebola or be homeless for sure, most folks will roll the dice. You would probably have things like the national guard issuing stockpiled rations to people in case a long term quarantine. And I don't think the county sheriff is going to be inclined to go around serving eviction orders during and right after a full scale regional quarantine. Yes people still went to work after the Boston Bombing, but that wasn't even a mandatory quarantine situation, people were just asked to stay off the streets with no penalty for disobeying. A police badge is going to be enough to make some grumbling manager shut up about no one showing up to his business that's illegal to get to in the first place.
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 17:20
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 07:50 |
|
|
Wrongo, Fishmech. You really think the rentier class is going to lay off squeezing the poors for their free money just because those dirty poors have caught the sniffles? This is America! Land of opportunity!(To squeeze those poor fuckers for all they're worth.) The sheriff is going to get his orders to put people on the street, but they can't be on the street- so they will go to jail. The police have no mercy, come on, man. You know better than that. They get their orders from the rich, and the rich have neither patience nor sympathy. Honestly, my brain can't go to the logical endgame, here- it's too loving bleak. But if there's one thing I've learned in life, you cannot trust the police to do the right thing.
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 17:27
|
|
|
Doomtalker posted:Wrongo, Fishmech. You really think the rentier class is going to lay off squeezing the poors for their free money just because those dirty poors have caught the sniffles? This is America! Land of opportunity!(To squeeze those poor fuckers for all they're worth.) The sheriff is going to get his orders to put people on the street, but they can't be on the street- so they will go to jail. The police have no mercy, come on, man. You know better than that. They get their orders from the rich, and the rich have neither patience nor sympathy. Honestly, my brain can't go to the logical endgame, here- it's too loving bleak. But if there's one thing I've learned in life, you cannot trust the police to do the right thing. Tell me more about how the rich are going to get customers in their stores when the cops are barricading the malls and wal marts.  It's like you don't get that half the point of so many major retail chains being a franchise model is that the corporation as a whole has lesser risk if a few stores go under while the general manager of McDonald's #45939 could barely afford to bribe a cop to avoid a traffic ticket.
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 17:44
|
|
|
Doomtalker posted:Counterpoint- rent's gotta be paid, mortgage isn't going to go away. Heat is a must in winter, and food is a must at all times. Most people have no cash reserves, and that means going to work regardless. Even when the state has been shut down for blizzards and the Boston Bombing, retail guys still had to go to work. If the options are risk ebola or be homeless for sure, most folks will roll the dice.
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 17:52
|
|
|
Nintendo Kid posted:Tell me more about how the rich are going to get customers in their stores when the cops are barricading the malls and wal marts. They won't have to, because quote:the corporation as a whole has lesser risk if a few stores go under Walmarts and chain supermarkets go under and the corps don't give a poo poo, small stores can't get supplies through quarantine (and if they can, not in a volume to make up for the hole left by corps; not in sales nor, more importantly, in employment opportunities) Evilreaver fucked around with this message at 18:01 on Sep 5, 2014 |
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 17:55
|
|
|
Evilreaver posted:Walmarts and chain supermarkets go under and the corps don't give a poo poo, small stores can't get supplies through quarantine (and if they can, not in a volume to make up for the hole left by corps; not in sales nor, more importantly, in employment opportunities) No one cares about small stores, and small stores haven't been a significant portion of business for many decades. They'd also shut down if their employees caught fuckin' ebola too.
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 17:58
|
|
|
Guys, his name is literally Doomtalker.
|
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 18:47
|
|
|
My Imaginary GF, you seem to have a lot of knowledge about all this. Obviously don't answer if you feel uncomfortable doing so, but do you have any involvement in what's going on in terms of quarantine and care?
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 19:35
|
|
|
twodot posted:The only way this could possibly be an issue is if quarantine lines cut between someone's house and job. Maybe you are arguing that the US would be dumb and design quarantines that have that problem, but it's definitely not a necessary condition. Obviously you will probably always cut off at least one person, but I would wager people with long commute times are easier to police than the general population. Ah, yes, because money is notoriously sterile. Also, quarantines will certainly allow total movement within the quarantine zone, when Boston PD's idea of handling things was demonstrably keeping people literally in their homes a mere 2 years ago. Be realistic- if cops get carte blanche to enact house arrest on towns, counties, and states at a time, do you really think the economies will thrive? If they don't, do you really think multinational corporations will have any patience for the region? I'll give you a hint: investments in sierra leon are not exactly rocketing right now. e: lookin like a fool with my dictionary on the ground.
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 20:01
|
|
|
Doomtalker posted:Ah, yes, because money is notoriously sterile. Also, quarantines will certainly allow total movement within the quarantine zone, when Boston PD's idea of handling things was demonstrably keeping people literally in their homes a mere 2 years ago. Be realistic- if cops get carte blanche to enact house arrest on towns, counties, and states at a time, do you really think the economies will thrive? If they don't, do you really think multinational corporations will have any patience for the region? I'll give you a hint: investments in sierra lione are not exactly rocketing right now. Economies will thrive a lot more with a month cool down and 5 deaths instead of free trade and tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of deaths, yes. Also, credit and debit cards exist, and the government has legal authority to demand the surrender of old currency to be exchanged for new. This will be especially easy to compel at banks and retail establishments.
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 20:08
|
|
|
This whole conversation is odd. In the hypothetical event of Ebola in the US, community containment probably wouldn't even be needed. Ebola doesn't spread until symptoms start manifesting. There isn't some period of time where you're feeling fine and walking around shedding Ebola everywhere. And even if your coworker gets Ebola and braves coming in to work the first day or two, by day three when their fever hits 104 they're not gonna feel good enough to come to work - it's a pretty self-limiting infection. And even if they do, Ebola spreads by contact with the infected vomit, blood, and feces of a victim. If your coworker shows up in the middle of an Ebola outbreak and pukes all over the floor, what are you gonna do? You're gonna call 911, have him dragged the gently caress into a hospital, and wait for the nice men with PPE to clean up the puddle of sick. Liberia quarantined the population of West Point for two reasons: because elements of the population do not believe in Ebola and thus think that looting a treatment center for mattresses is a good idea, or that ritual funeral rites must be performed even when people say "that's gonna get you sick", or that drinking strong coffee and salt water will keep you safe..., and because their public health institutions are far too weak to make any difference. Neither of those factors apply to the US. Americans are scared to loving death of two patients flying in a specially outfitted airplane to a hospital that has some of the strictest isolation procedures seen outside BSL-4 labs. Do you think they're going to steal a bloody mattress if Ebola was here? Or not go to the hospital? If anything I bet ERs will be slammed ("I have the sniffles... could it be EBOLA?  "). And while there are plenty of gripes about the American health care system, the country as a whole is capable of extremely strong public health responses to threats - see polio and smallpox for examples.The quarantines we will see will be extremely limited: if you had high-risk contact with an infected person. That'll be it. ETA: see the CDC guidelines on risk levels: http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/hcp/case-definition.html
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 20:14
|
|
|
Doomtalker posted:Ah, yes, because money is notoriously sterile. Also, quarantines will certainly allow total movement within the quarantine zone, when Boston PD's idea of handling things was demonstrably keeping people literally in their homes a mere 2 years ago. Be realistic- if cops get carte blanche to enact house arrest on towns, counties, and states at a time, do you really think the economies will thrive? If they don't, do you really think multinational corporations will have any patience for the region? I'll give you a hint: investments in sierra leon are not exactly rocketing right now.
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 20:15
|
|
|
Nintendo Kid posted:Economies will thrive a lot more with a month cool down and 5 deaths instead of free trade and tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of deaths, yes. C'mon, fishmech. What planet are you on? What retail employee doesn't have to slide each card, every card, for every retail customer, because they're all dumb as poo poo? What retail employee, what gas pumper or parking concierge feels that 6 weeks of no paycheck is worth some rear end in a top hat in the midwest maybe dying? America might believe in germs, but blue collar Joe has a mandate to not become homeless or starve to death, and I do not believe that the million/billionaires have a moment of mercy for those who shake hands and take money from the unwashed masses. After all, ebola is awfully hard to transfer if you don't touch the infected(currently). Rent does need to be paid, after all. Can't have the parasites live rent free, right?
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 20:20
|
|
|
Doomtalker posted:C'mon, fishmech. What planet are you on? What retail employee doesn't have to slide each card, every card, for every retail customer, because they're all dumb as poo poo? What retail employee, what gas pumper or parking concierge feels that 6 weeks of no paycheck is worth some rear end in a top hat in the midwest maybe dying? America might believe in germs, but blue collar Joe has a mandate to not become homeless or starve to death, and I do not believe that the million/billionaires have a moment of mercy for those who shake hands and take money from the unwashed masses. After all, ebola is awfully hard to transfer if you don't touch the infected(currently). Rent does need to be paid, after all. Can't have the parasites live rent free, right? That's why you'd quarantine people out of businesses, friend.  What, the employees and the customers are going to dodge militarized police lines to go the store in Quarantined For Ebolaville, USA?
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 20:26
|
|
|
No connection to the current class warfare discussion, but I was looking at the tables and charts and something bothers me: Is the outbreak's lethality computed as the ratio of the dead to the infected? It appears that it is so, but that seems wrong. Shouldn't it be the ratio of the dead to the sum of the dead and the healed? After the outbreak has run its course it makes no difference but right now there is a considerable number of people who are sick and have not yet died or survived, so their outcome is unknown. In effect the ratio of dead to infected assumes that all infected will recover, and that artificially lowers the expected lethality of the outbreak. I could be reading it wrong (shame me and then educate me then) or it could be a problem with the method, or it could be precisely the point of calculating this way, if you don't want the outbreak to look even scarier than it does right now.
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 20:35
|
|
|
Enjoy my self Ad Homienem. I work in retail. I do, I am a goon, soup to nuts. Hate me as you will. I have personally seen people demand(and I do mean demand) services in hurricanes, blizzards, and summer storms with tornado warnings. I have had bosses ask me if I'm quitting during state emergencies. I once had an entire staff go home during a shift due to a tornado warning- and then got "written up" for the terrible sales numbers that day. "Corporate" has no mercy with regards to local situations. Numbers matter, people are collateral damage. Hypothetically, the state could mandate a right proper quarantine. Go nuts. Bank of America will demand their mortgages, Macy's will demand their sales deficits. Shareholders will brook no failures on the part of the employees. e: Welcome to capitalism? Hell no. Welcome to the republican party.
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 20:36
|
|
|
Doomtalker posted:Enjoy my self Ad Homienem. I've worked in retail too. If there was cops blocking entrances to our store we would be unable to operate. It's really simple! See all the things you've described are things where there aren't cops enforcing no questions asked blocks against all public places.
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 20:43
|
|
|
HerStuddMuffin posted:No connection to the current class warfare discussion, but I was looking at the tables and charts and something bothers me: Is the outbreak's lethality computed as the ratio of the dead to the infected? It appears that it is so, but that seems wrong. Shouldn't it be the ratio of the dead to the sum of the dead and the healed? After the outbreak has run its course it makes no difference but right now there is a considerable number of people who are sick and have not yet died or survived, so their outcome is unknown. In effect the ratio of dead to infected assumes that all infected will recover, and that artificially lowers the expected lethality of the outbreak. The measure is the case fatality rate. And yeah the problem with the measure is that currently ill cases can skew it a bit. http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/disease/ebola/en/ - if you recompute the CFR off older reports, it'll fluctuate. But the CFR is only used for time-limited events like this. If you are an Ebola patient you are guaranteed to either die or get better, so the number on aggregate remains OK. Depressingly, as more and more people have been sick the number becomes stable because unresolved cases don't impact it too much.
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 20:47
|
|
|
Nintendo Kid posted:I've worked in retail too. If there was cops blocking entrances to our store we would be unable to operate. It's really simple! The problem here is your innocent assumption that the US police would ever stand in front of a retail store and stop anybody from going in and get away with it. There is no chance that happens. The state will issue a warning, cops will stake out the streets and pull people over- and yet, the stores will be open and staffed, and have people come in and spend money. The customers will not be locals- mostly immigrants. The retail staffers will be those without the ability to "call out" without repercussion. It has happened, it will happen again.
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 20:57
|
|
|
Doomtalker posted:The problem here is your innocent assumption that the US police would ever stand in front of a retail store and stop anybody from going in and get away with it. There is no chance that happens. The state will issue a warning, cops will stake out the streets and pull people over- and yet, the stores will be open and staffed, and have people come in and spend money. The customers will not be locals- mostly immigrants. The retail staffers will be those without the ability to "call out" without repercussion. It has happened, it will happen again. How is that an "innocent assumption"? In Ferguson cops got right away with blocking many businesses for literally no reason at all. This was happening less than two weeks ago! The stores are not going to be open if the cops block them. Full stop. Also where the hell are immigrants going to come from in the middle of an ebola crisis so severe that localized quarantines are imposed? It's hard enough to immigrate to the US during normal conditions. Nintendo Kid fucked around with this message at 21:15 on Sep 5, 2014 |
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 21:11
|
|
|
Johnny Cache Hit posted:Neither of those factors apply to the US. Americans are scared to loving death of two patients flying in a specially outfitted airplane to a hospital that has some of the strictest isolation procedures seen outside BSL-4 labs. Do you think they're going to steal a bloody mattress if Ebola was here? Or not go to the hospital? If anything I bet ERs will be slammed ("I have the sniffles... could it be EBOLA? Eh. I actually think the American healthcare system would be the biggest barrier to a public health response to a major epidemic. We've got the weird confluence of three things that could spell disaster combined: 1. We've got a near-hypocondriac populace that's easily frightened, with a sensationalist media that loves to hype things up. 2. Buuut we've also got a lot of people who adopt a 'wait and see' attitude with regard to health issues because they usually can't afford to go to the doctor or skip work, so even when people have horrible diarrhea and 110 degree fevers they'll still try and go to work. 3. Due to most hospitals and ambulance companies being run by private corporations, hospitals tend to be built and crewed so that there's very little excess capacity to deal with emergencies or epidemics.
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 21:24
|
|
|
Johnny Cache Hit posted:Ebola doesn't spread until symptoms start manifesting. There isn't some period of time where you're feeling fine and walking around shedding Ebola everywhere. NPR posted:The doctor secretly treated the diplomat in a Port Harcourt hotel room. The diplomat reportedly has survived. http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2014/09/05/346033875/a-diplomat-infected-a-doctor-as-ebola-spreads-in-nigeria You don't have to feel all better; you just have to feel well enough to function, as this doctor did.
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 21:26
|
|
|
axeil posted:My Imaginary GF, you seem to have a lot of knowledge about all this. Obviously don't answer if you feel uncomfortable doing so, but do you have any involvement in what's going on in terms of quarantine and care? No, I work on rural education in East Africa and have worked on improving healthcare in Zimbabwe in the past. I went to grad school with a bunch of MPH'ers and did their readings I do know the planning process in East Africa for quarantine and care; West Africa is a bit out of hands at the moment. E: Not gonna wade into the American outbreak clancychat as history provides great lessons on the measures willing to be taken there. Will gladly discuss quarantine and isolation problems currently experienced in West Africa, and anticipated issuss in East Africa, if anyone has questions. My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 21:45 on Sep 5, 2014 |
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 21:41
|
|
|
Doomtalker posted:The problem here is your innocent assumption that the US police would ever stand in front of a retail store and stop anybody from going in and get away with it. There is no chance that happens. The state will issue a warning, cops will stake out the streets and pull people over- and yet, the stores will be open and staffed, and have people come in and spend money. The customers will not be locals- mostly immigrants. The retail staffers will be those without the ability to "call out" without repercussion. It has happened, it will happen again. You sound loving nuts fyi, like so nuts fishmech is making sane and rational points vs. you. My Imaginary GF posted:clancychat D and d loves to latch onto stupid phrases and drive them into the ground don't they.
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 22:55
|
|
|
Unhinged Vulcan posted:So you are certain that The United States population would be receptive to this: Why is the guy's rifle carrying a blank firing adapter? Weird picture.
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 23:24
|
|
|
Kaal posted:Why is the guy's rifle carrying a blank firing adapter? Weird picture. Training Excersise pic clearly 
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 23:43
|
|
|
I don't know about you guys but my company's policy is to pay people as if they were working in the event of some kind of epidemic/pandemic. And I can get my groceries through amazon dot com prime shipping!
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 23:55
|
|
|
Nintendo Kid posted:How is that an "innocent assumption"? In Ferguson cops got right away with blocking many businesses for literally no reason at all. This was happening less than two weeks ago! That's a big if. I'll give it to you, though.
|
|
#
?
Sep 5, 2014 23:56
|
|
|
Doomtalker posted:That's a big if. I'll give it to you, though. None of that is a "big if". It's literally what a quarantine would be. Peven Stan posted:I don't know about you guys but my company's policy is to pay people as if they were working in the event of some kind of epidemic/pandemic. And I can get my groceries through amazon dot com prime shipping! Ah yes, because you're totally going to make your shift at The Building Being Blocked Off By Cops and then go shopping at The Supermarket That's Also Being Blocked Off By Cops. Nintendo Kid fucked around with this message at 00:04 on Sep 6, 2014 |
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2014 00:01
|
|
|
tsa posted:D and d loves to latch onto stupid phrases and drive them into the ground don't they. Well, it's is an incredibly stupid conversation.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2014 00:08
|
|
|
Holy poo poo.quote:Sierra Leone will impose a four-day, countrywide "lockdown" starting Sept. 18, an escalation of efforts to halt the spread of Ebola across the West African country, a senior official in the president's office said on Friday. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/05/us-health-ebola-leone-idUSKBN0H029420140905 edit: I feel like this sort of quarantine would have the side effect of, while perhaps curbing the spread of ebola, killing entire households where a single person is infected. Also unclear what capacity they have to enforce this sort of thing outside central areas. Xandu fucked around with this message at 00:22 on Sep 6, 2014 |
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2014 00:16
|
|
|
Xandu posted:Holy poo poo. There isn't a capacity to enforce this outside of central areas. There's only capacity to enforce it in central areas if troops are willing to use force. What I've seen, things are getting pretty dire. Food supplies are low to out in places, rural harvests are down significantly, and international cereal shipments have ceased. I'd expect central authority to collapse soon enough; there's only enough food for so many, there's not enough food for everyone. When the riots really start, far better PR to fire on individuals breaking ebola quarantine than starving massing.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2014 00:28
|
|
|
My Imaginary GF posted:No, I work on rural education in East Africa and have worked on improving healthcare in Zimbabwe in the past. I went to grad school with a bunch of MPH'ers and did their readings Wow that's really impressive. It sounds like if Nigeria's cases flame out the country should be able to keep a lid on any more Ebola patients from entering the country. Two questions based on that. 1. What if that doesn't happen? Presupposing an outbreak in Nigeria would they be able to contain it or would we see a similar situation to what's going on in Liberia where general law and order are beginning to break down? What other countries would likely be infected? One of my best friends grew up in Nigeria and he said it's really the hub of West Africa so I'm guessing the answer is "a lot" And finally, how is this going to play with the ongoing Boko Haram rebellion/uprising/whatever you want to call it? Are they onboard with stopping the spread of the disease or are they in the "Ebola isn't real" camp? 2. If Nigeria does get things under control what other countries are at risk? It sounds like Liberia is doing basically nothing to prevent people from leaving the country. What about other bordering countries? Have they set up border patrols/checkpoints/etc? edit: and I just thought of this one. 3. What's the endgame in Liberia/Guinea/Sierra Leone? Are we going to get to the point where the military is out putting everyone in camps or shooting them? Because from what I've read it sounds like the only way to enforce quarantine procedures is if you go all out and just start gunning down people who disobey which, obviously, is going to just lead to more problems. Oh and 4. What is the rest of Africa doing about this? Is there a lot of trade/travel between West Africa, East Africa and Southern Africa? (is there a term for the area from the DRC on down other than sub-Sahara?) What governments are the best and worst equipped to deal with this? It sounds like the DRC, for all its flaws, has a very good handle on how to control outbreaks. axeil fucked around with this message at 00:36 on Sep 6, 2014 |
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2014 00:31
|
|
|
My Imaginary GF posted:There isn't a capacity to enforce this outside of central areas. There's only capacity to enforce it in central areas if troops are willing to use force. Goddamn. Anyone have any good streams to watch?
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2014 00:35
|
|
|
My Imaginary GF posted:There isn't a capacity to enforce this outside of central areas. There's only capacity to enforce it in central areas if troops are willing to use force. Holy poo poo. When push comes to shove is the military actually going to fire on people?
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2014 00:37
|
|
|
Baloogan posted:Goddamn. Anyone have any good streams to watch? Sierra Leone is in the top 10 poorest nations in the world and about 2% of the population has internet access. You're probably not going to get streams.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2014 00:43
|
|
|
Nintendo Kid posted:Sierra Leone is in the top 10 poorest nations in the world and about 2% of the population has internet access. You're probably not going to get streams. drat. Think this might make them even poorer.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2014 00:49
|
|
|
axeil posted:Wow that's really impressive. 1. Near-term outcome is collapse of Nigerian healthcare institutions. Near to mid term outcome is a freezing of all new international cargo shipments to Nigeria and closure of Nigeria's oil export capacity. Mid-term outcome is collapse of the Nigerian government through an inability to pay wages. Additionally, during this collapse is when one sees the most likely international transmission events: those with the means to leave will do so, and those with enough means have shown themselves willing to disobey quarantine in the past. Mid to long term outcome is spread to neighboring countries and likely spread of outbreak events to Ethiopia, Ghana, India, and China. Long-term consequence is civil war in Nigeria and Boko Haram's further rise. Imagine if ISIS attempted to impose a quarantine according to their interpretation Islamic law, and you've got the likely outcome in northern Nigeria. Deathtoll: Bad. 2. All of West Africa is at very high risk for an outbreak event. If this current outbreak is contained, you're still likely to see collapse of some sectors of Nigerian civil society and worsened terrorism. I've been following the private sector logistics train throughout this outbreak, and Nigeria isn't likely to resume normal food imports and resource exports until after christmas, assuming this outbreak is contained. The most likely nations for an Ebolavirus Zaire-strain (spread of West African pandemic) outbreak to occur are Ghana and Ethiopia. The likely nations for Ebolavirus Sudan-strain outbreak are Sudan, South Sudan, and DRC. The likely nation for a Ebolavirus Tai-Forest outbreak is Cote d'Ivoire. The less shipping capacity to Africa, the higher food prices in Africa rise and the lower government tarrif revenue is, and the more rapid the collapse of civil society and more rapid the spread of Ebolavirus. Many individuals would rather risk infection than starve to death. Do note, there are currently two separate Ebola outbreaks occuring simultaneously at this time. 3. It depends who you ask. Frankly, there isn't an end-game right now, as the systemic issues are out of control. The primary objective is ebolavirus containment, which may not be possible for another 12 months at the minimum. Again, depends who you ask and what sort of models they use. Personally. I'm a big fan of system dynamics and think it impossible to accurately project the end-game without considering the most relavent factors at play. Ebola and HIV didn't emerge in a vacuum; they've been in the animal reservoir since time immemorial. E: 4. DRC is aided by its inhospitity and remoteness. There are only so many urban centers in DRC, and few roads between. Every rainy season, the roads become that much worse; road is often the polite term for bush trails. Outbreaks in DRC are easier to contain than in West Africa due to the isolation of urban areas and travel time between. However, if an outbreak is able to get to an urban center in DRC, the current capacity to halt it is qiestionable as the traditional surge strategy may not have enough resources available to work. It's not necessarily the eating of bush meat that is most likely to cause a transmission event; its the hunting of bushmeat itself. When one is out in the bush and manages a kill, if it isn't small-game, hunters typically divide the body on the spot in order to ease transportation back to their encampment. Its this division of the body that makes hunting for bushmeat the most likely non-medical transmission jump between animal and human. E2: To further clarify on what I mean by 'non-medical transmission jump,' before the discovery of hormone therapy, it was an experimental procedure to transplant simian testicles into humans in order to prevent the then-assured long-term death of eunochs due to lack of hormones. There were also a few experiments of simian-to-human blood transfusions that found compatibility of simian blood in human beings regardless of human blood type, I believe. My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 01:11 on Sep 6, 2014 |
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2014 00:54
|
|
|
axeil posted:Holy poo poo. When push comes to shove is the military actually going to fire on people? Liberian military has fired on and killed multiple people attempting to escape quarantine in Monrovia already.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2014 01:24
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 07:50 |
|
|
Arsenic Lupin posted:The Liberian Port Harcourt index case (I may be using that term wrong) was a doctor who secretly treated a diplomat who had broken quarantine from the infected area in Lagos. Jesus loving christ what is it with "D&D sub-point gotcha" (you made ten points and I think I can poke a small hole in the seventh? Gotcha!  )Public health bodies are unequivocal on this point: If you've just caught EBOV, you are not infectious until you are showing symptoms. http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/guinea/qa.html posted:Can I get Ebola from a person who is infected but doesn’t have fever or any symptoms? (Note my careful wording to prevent language lawyering: recovered patients do shed EBOV in their semen, but this is of little practical concern) "But", you cry, "what about the doctor in Liberia? He felt good enough to do his job..." Early EVD looks like one of a million common ailments that affect people in Africa. Read any account from a survivor of Ebola: almost to a person the first thing they say is "I woke up with a fever so I took antimalarials." Early cases of EBOV look like malaria, dengue, typhoid, and plenty of other nasty infections that are everywhere in Africa. This is why it's such a bitch to detect, and why the WHO still says airport screenings are worthless -- if you aren't sure if it's EBOV it doesn't really matter; if you know it's EBOV you don't have to rely on early-stage screenings like "do you have a fever", etc. A doctor in New York that wakes up with a fever after treating EVD patients? They're not going to wake up and think "oh gee, maybe it's malaria, I'll take a handful of chloroquine and go about my day  " HCWs are the at risk population even in the US. But increased education/training of doctors, coupled with the lack of endemic diseases that look like early stage EBV, means you aren't going to see a Dr. Enemuo case in the US.If you're not a HCW, there's even less to worry about. This is the CDC's guidance on contact with EVD patients: http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/hcp/monitoring-and-movement-of-persons-with-exposure.html. If the guy in the cubicle beside you comes down with EBV, you'll almost certainly freak out (who wouldn't!), go to the hospital, and be sent home and told to take your temperature twice daily and watch for other symptoms. Even if you had a fever they'd almost certainly do the same, unless you'd been raw-dogging him in the broom closet in which case your exposure would be bumped up to high risk. Ratoslov posted:Eh. I actually think the American healthcare system would be the biggest barrier to a public health response to a major epidemic. We've got the weird confluence of three things that could spell disaster combined: If anything I think the hype cycle would be the biggest risk. EVD is so blown out of proportion in the US that people aren't going to wait and see. This could lead to overloading at hospitals. But remember, the US does have experience deploying HCWs in disasters so it's not like there is zero slack in the system. If there was a credible concern of EVD in the US it would start as a localized threat so there's no reason proper measures wouldn't be put in place immediately.
|
|
#
?
Sep 6, 2014 02:50
|
|