Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Franks Happy Place posted:

It's actually a more legit brokerage than a lot of the ones that advertise on the radio. I don't listen to the radio, like, ever, so I just couldn't remember any of the really hilarious/egregious ones.

But yes, the mortgage and home-loan market is a shitshow.

Could you use $40,000, $50,000, or even $500,000?

e: Still more legit than these guys.

ocrumsprug fucked around with this message at 23:58 on Sep 5, 2014

# ? Sep 5, 2014 23:54

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# ? May 18, 2024 07:22

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

ocrumsprug posted:

Could you use $40,000, $50,000, or even $500,000?

Aha, yes, those are the... "fellows" I was thinking of.

For our American friends, here's the amazing definitely-not-a-bubble-no-sirree commercial ocrumsprug was referring to:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PT-lgwOUh4

# ? Sep 6, 2014 00:06

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Franks Happy Place posted:

Aha, yes, those are the... "fellows" I was thinking of.

For our American friends, here's the amazing definitely-not-a-bubble-no-sirree commercial ocrumsprug was referring to:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PT-lgwOUh4

Oh my god these exact same ads were on TV here circa 2006.

I tried to find some on YouTube but I'm pretty sure they've all been shoved down the memory hole.

# ? Sep 6, 2014 00:26

Kalenn Istarion: Nov 2, 2012; Maybe Senpai will finally notice me now that I've dropped :fivebux: on this snazzy av

axeil posted:

Does CMHC also cover the payments to the MBS holders after default or do the bondholders get hosed as well?

So:

The mortgage insurers (not just CMHC, there are a total of 3) insure either individual policies (in the case of people with less than 20% down) or provide what is called portfolio insurance, which is used to provide protection to some or all classes of MBS. This means that investors in the high-security classes are almost entirely protected from loss.

To understand why the bolded part is important, you need to know a bit about how MBS are constructed. I'll eschew my usual detailed explanation and say that essentially a given family of MBS has various tranches with differing security while essentially being loans against the same underlying asset pool. Security can be defined by the amortization priority of a tranche as well as by the quality of he underlying mortgage pool, among other things. A higher quality tranche might gain the benefit of portfolio insurance while a lower quality might not, either implicitly or explicitly.

As an example, let's say we have a two tranche MBS. The underlying mortgage pool is a set of A-rated mortgages (mortgage ratings work different but I'm using a more familiar ranking system for ease of discussion). The first tranche accounts for 80% of the total principal pool and receives 100% of principal repayments until it is fully repaid. The second tranche receives residual principal payments once the first tranche is paid off and accounts for 20% of he total pool. To improve the quality of the asset pool, the issuing bank obtains portfolio insurance which covers any losses after the first 20%. As you can see this leaves the first tranche with significantly less security risk than the second tranche. The first trance would likely get a AAA rating as it's essentially now sovereign risk while the second tranche would receive a rating somewhere below A as the lower payment priority hurts a lot. This means that certain investors would be exposed while others would not, but as a group investors likely only have exposure somewhere in the range of a portion of principal.

# ? Sep 6, 2014 02:25

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Kalenn Istarion posted:

So:

The mortgage insurers (not just CMHC, there are a total of 3) insure either individual policies (in the case of people with less than 20% down) or provide what is called portfolio insurance, which is used to provide protection to some or all classes of MBS. This means that investors in the high-security classes are almost entirely protected from loss.

To understand why the bolded part is important, you need to know a bit about how MBS are constructed. I'll eschew my usual detailed explanation and say that essentially a given family of MBS has various tranches with differing security while essentially being loans against the same underlying asset pool. Security can be defined by the amortization priority of a tranche as well as by the quality of he underlying mortgage pool, among other things. A higher quality tranche might gain the benefit of portfolio insurance while a lower quality might not, either implicitly or explicitly.

As an example, let's say we have a two tranche MBS. The underlying mortgage pool is a set of A-rated mortgages (mortgage ratings work different but I'm using a more familiar ranking system for ease of discussion). The first tranche accounts for 80% of the total principal pool and receives 100% of principal repayments until it is fully repaid. The second tranche receives residual principal payments once the first tranche is paid off and accounts for 20% of he total pool. To improve the quality of the asset pool, the issuing bank obtains portfolio insurance which covers any losses after the first 20%. As you can see this leaves the first tranche with significantly less security risk than the second tranche. The first trance would likely get a AAA rating as it's essentially now sovereign risk while the second tranche would receive a rating somewhere below A as the lower payment priority hurts a lot. This means that certain investors would be exposed while others would not, but as a group investors likely only have exposure somewhere in the range of a portion of principal.

I actually work in the MBS market here in the States (don't want to be more specific than that), thus all my questions. This post was really interesting, thanks! The government-guaranteed stuff here in the states doesn't even get traditionally tranched. Does the insured portion get all the pre-pays first like a typical tranched product?

It seems like only insuring the top tranche makes sorting out a default scenario much trickier. If only the top part is guaranteed and say half the mortgages in the security are delinquent how do they sort out what goes where? Does the top tranche still get whatever is needed to make the regular interest payments, the insurer picks up the rest and the bottom tranche gets nothing? Or is it split up some other way.

axeil fucked around with this message at 03:41 on Sep 6, 2014

# ? Sep 6, 2014 03:38

Kalenn Istarion: Nov 2, 2012; Maybe Senpai will finally notice me now that I've dropped :fivebux: on this snazzy av

axeil posted:

I actually work in the MBS market here in the States (don't want to be more specific than that), thus all my questions. This post was really interesting, thanks! The government-guaranteed stuff here in the states doesn't even get traditionally tranched. Does the insured portion get all the pre-pays first like a typical tranched product?

It seems like only insuring the top tranche makes sorting out a default scenario much trickier. If only the top part is guaranteed and say half the mortgages in the security are delinquent how do they sort out what goes where? Does the top tranche still get whatever is needed to make the regular interest payments, the insurer picks up the rest and the bottom tranche gets nothing? Or is it split up some other way.

I don't work directly in the market so that question is getting a bit more specific than I can speak to. Afaik the insurance is sold on the pool rather than specific tranches, hence the scenario I noted above.

# ? Sep 6, 2014 03:57

axeil: Feb 14, 2006

Kalenn Istarion posted:

I don't work directly in the market so that question is getting a bit more specific than I can speak to. Afaik the insurance is sold on the pool rather than specific tranches, hence the scenario I noted above.

Ah okay. Thanks for the info though!

# ? Sep 6, 2014 03:59

melon cat: Jan 21, 2010; Nap Ghost

melon cat fucked around with this message at 04:11 on Mar 16, 2019

# ? Sep 6, 2014 04:43

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Keeping rates low seems deliberate in order to devalue the loonie, and get exports moving again.

ZIR probably won't last too much longer as they don't need to devalue our dollar THAT much. (And bonds will rise on their own anyways, screwing the 5-year mortgage crowd.)

ocrumsprug fucked around with this message at 11:48 on Sep 6, 2014

# ? Sep 6, 2014 06:25

Rutibex: Sep 9, 2001; by Fluffdaddy

A question about CMHC insurance. How does it work exactly? If someone defaults on their mortgage does the bank pick up the payments or does it only kick in after foreclosure and sale of the house to cover the difference? Basically what I'm asking is will banks be able to foreclose on people and sit on the homes like in the states to prevent the market from tanking or will the insurance force them to sell?

# ? Sep 6, 2014 12:48

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Rutibex posted:

A question about CMHC insurance. How does it work exactly? If someone defaults on their mortgage does the bank pick up the payments or does it only kick in after foreclosure and sale of the house to cover the difference? Basically what I'm asking is will banks be able to foreclose on people and sit on the homes like in the states to prevent the market from tanking or will the insurance force them to sell?

Kicks in post-foreclosure. So presumably they'd have some options.

# ? Sep 6, 2014 13:52

RBC: Nov 23, 2007; IM STILL SPENDING MONEY FROM 1888

ocrumsprug posted:

Keeping rates low seems deliberate in order to devalue the loonie, and get exports moving again.

ZIR probably won't last too much longer as they don't need to devalue our dollar THAT much. (And bonds will rise on their own anyways, screwing the 5-year mortgage crowd.)

The moment rates go up the canadian economy is going to start collapsing because it's a house of cards built on cheap debt. Interest rates have little effect to no effect on the value of the dollar and the BoC is basically crossing its fingers hoping other sectors of the economy will improve before they have to increase rates.

# ? Sep 6, 2014 21:00

melon cat: Jan 21, 2010; Nap Ghost

Edit!

melon cat fucked around with this message at 04:09 on Mar 16, 2019

# ? Sep 6, 2014 23:44

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

RBC posted:

The moment rates go up the canadian economy is going to start collapsing because it's a house of cards built on cheap debt. Interest rates have little effect to no effect on the value of the dollar and the BoC is basically crossing its fingers hoping other sectors of the economy will improve before they have to increase rates.

It affects it a bit as people move their dough to the place with the higher rate. However at the moment, that effect is likely dwarfed by the people piling out of the clown car that is Canadian investments, into American markets. (I know I bailed out two years ago.)

It is funny watch the BoC transition from everything is fine and soft landing is a go, to assuming the crash position.

# ? Sep 7, 2014 00:09

Kalenn Istarion: Nov 2, 2012; Maybe Senpai will finally notice me now that I've dropped :fivebux: on this snazzy av

ocrumsprug posted:

It affects it a bit as people move their dough to the place with the higher rate. However at the moment, that effect is likely dwarfed by the people piling out of the clown car that is Canadian investments, into American markets. (I know I bailed out two years ago.)

It is funny watch the BoC transition from everything is fine and soft landing is a go, to assuming the crash position.

Yeah, there's extensive research around the connection of rates to currency strength. Higher rates > higher relative value in an open economy, all else equal, but only over a longer term horizon. Over the short to medium term the correlation is relatively low.

# ? Sep 7, 2014 03:02

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

quote:

Scott Findlay
‏@MortgageScott
77% of first time home buyers that purchased a home before cmhc reduced the maximum amortization from 40 years to 25 would not qualify now..
Guelph, Ontario

lol

# ? Sep 7, 2014 23:57

blah_blah: Apr 15, 2006

Holy poo poo.

# ? Sep 8, 2014 00:03

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

Cultural Imperial posted:

lol

I don't know why you lol when you're going to be bailing them out.

# ? Sep 8, 2014 00:08

FrozenVent: May 1, 2009; The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

There's a condo for sale nearby, one of three units in a building. The realtor posted the MLS sheet out front.

Building municipal valuation 306k, lot 50k, asking price (for 33% of the building!) 400k.

What the gently caress.

# ? Sep 8, 2014 00:18

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

The extra 44k is the pride-of-ownership premium. Your peers won't regard you as human garbage anymore with a property deed in your name.

# ? Sep 8, 2014 00:24

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

A lot of places go for way over the assessed value. A bunch of houses on my old street all went for about 100k over their most recent assessment, sometimes more.

# ? Sep 8, 2014 01:06

FrozenVent: May 1, 2009; The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

It's a three apartments building, valued at 360k, and one unit is asking for 400k.

There's not a 44k premium, or 100k above valuation, that's 333% valuation, assuming the other apartments are the same size and price. Unless the valuation they posted is just for the one apartment, but the sign specifically said "lot" and "building".

# ? Sep 8, 2014 02:27

HookShot: Dec 26, 2005

In BC IIRC they just split it up into "total land" and "total building" with regards to each individual address as just their labelling system.

So if there's apartments numbers 1, 2 and 3 at 123 Main Street, and the whole building of all the apartments is valued at $600k, with the land valued at $300k, every individual apartment will have the land value listed as $100k and the building value listed as $200k.

# ? Sep 8, 2014 02:51

Precambrian Video Games: Aug 19, 2002

LemonDrizzle posted:

I don't know why you lol when you're going to be bailing them out.

We deserve our upcoming misery, I guess.

# ? Sep 8, 2014 03:03

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/world/americas/canadian-universities-explore-range-of-real-estate-careers.html?_r=3

Thread favourite Tsur Somerville gets a few mentions.

# ? Sep 8, 2014 15:29

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Getting a 4 year degree in real estate studies, is a shoe shine boy moment if I have ever seen one.

# ? Sep 8, 2014 16:19

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

ocrumsprug posted:

Getting a 4 year degree in real estate studies, is a shoe shine boy moment if I have ever seen one.

My thoughts exactly.

# ? Sep 8, 2014 16:37

triplexpac: Mar 24, 2007; Suck it
Two tears in a bucket
And then another thing
I'm not the one they'll try their luck with
Hit hard like brass knuckles
See your face through the turnbuckle dude
I got no love for you

My friend is arguing with me that 40-year mortgages are great for everyone involved, because people can afford more expensive houses and banks make more money so it's a win-win.

# ? Sep 8, 2014 16:45

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

ocrumsprug posted:

Getting a 4 year degree in real estate studies, is a shoe shine boy moment if I have ever seen one.

Empty quotin' dis

# ? Sep 8, 2014 17:00

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

triplexpac posted:

My friend is arguing with me that 40-year mortgages are great for everyone involved, because people can afford more expensive houses and banks make more money so it's a win-win.

It's like money isn't worth anything any more.

# ? Sep 8, 2014 17:01

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

For jawknee re minimum wage increase in seatac.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/seatac-proving-trickle-down-economics-wrong

# ? Sep 8, 2014 17:22

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/509016196122169345

Montreal and Ottawa prices are starting to go down. 18 months of inventory in Montreal. For the unacquainted, I think Vancouver had something like 8 months of inventory in 2008.

# ? Sep 8, 2014 17:49

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Cultural Imperial posted:

https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/509016196122169345

Montreal and Ottawa prices are starting to go down. 18 months of inventory in Montreal. For the unacquainted, I think Vancouver had something like 8 months of inventory in 2008.

Montreal's months of inventory (condo's at least) has been looking dire for more than a year now though. Has it spread to the SFH market now too?

There will be something vaguely unsettling if Montreal turns out to be Canada's Phoenix or Miami.

# ? Sep 8, 2014 18:45

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

ocrumsprug posted:

Montreal's months of inventory (condo's at least) has been looking dire for more than a year now though. Has it spread to the SFH market now too?

There will be something vaguely unsettling if Montreal turns out to be Canada's Phoenix or Miami.

Ben rabidoux says 16 months of inventory for all property types across entire province.

https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/509022591613681664

# ? Sep 8, 2014 19:24

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Cultural Imperial posted:

Ben rabidoux says 16 months of inventory for all property types across entire province.

https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/509022591613681664

Is anyone familiar with what caused the problem in Montreal? From the outside, it looks like it managed to avoid the housing bubble, or at least no where near the degree that Vancouver and Toronto have. (My spouse and I were thinking about relocating 2 years ago and there were nice houses in Montreal that were 2/3rd the price of my lovely Burnaby townhouse.)

How did they end up with that much inventory?

Did they go crazy building condos, coupled with no demand for them? It seems unlikely that everyone is fleeing the province NOW.

# ? Sep 8, 2014 19:53

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

ocrumsprug posted:

Is anyone familiar with what caused the problem in Montreal? From the outside, it looks like it managed to avoid the housing bubble, or at least no where near the degree that Vancouver and Toronto have. (My spouse and I were thinking about relocating 2 years ago and there were nice houses in Montreal that were 2/3rd the price of my lovely Burnaby townhouse.)

How did they end up with that much inventory?

Did they go crazy building condos, coupled with no demand for them? It seems unlikely that everyone is fleeing the province NOW.

You've got it. Also, highest unemployment rate in Canada.

I think Montreal also has the most disreputable building/FIRE industry in Canada.

# ? Sep 8, 2014 20:14

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

https://businessincanada.com/2014/09/08/jobs-growth-in-canada-has-slipped-to-recessionary-levels/

quote:

Canada�s labour market is doing terribly; that much is obvious.

Eight readings into 2014, the nation has failed to string together back-to-back months of job gains, with employment unexpectedly falling by 11,000 in August.

After a record loss, private sector employment is now down 3,600 year-over-year, and full-time employment is up just 0.1 percent compared to August 2013.

But just how badly is the labour market performing? Well, by one measure, which compares job growth to the growth of the core or prime-age population (those between the ages of 25 and 54), employment growth is in recessionary territory.

In May, June, and August, the 12-month moving average for job growth has dipped below the 12-month moving average of the growth in the core-age population.

Taking a long-term view, 66 percent of the months in which this occurs are associated with a recession:

quote:

In a healthy economy, one would expect the rate of job creation to outstrip the growth of the core-age population, particularly when using a 12-month moving average to smooth out the data.

�Associated with a recession� is a relatively subjective definition. For these purposes, it means that the 12-month moving average for job growth (red line) dipped below the related average for the growth of the core-age population (grey line) within six months of the onset of a recession, and also includes months immediately following the recession so long as the streak is not broken.

For example, September 1989 until March 1994 is considered to be associated with a recession, though the C.D. Howe�s Business Cycle Council has determined that the recession began in March 1990 and ended in April 1992.

The current period of abysmal job creation, it should be noted, was preceded by a period of impressive job growth immediately after the Great Recession; in the grand scheme of things, the Canadian recovery is an enviable one.

And this isn�t to say Canada�s about to enter a recession or that employment growth will turn negative � far from it. The current trend of job creation has often been described by economists as a �mid-cycle slump,� and that�s probably a better way of looking at it. Robust growth in the second quarter of the year, a strong hand-off to Q3, and the likelihood that neither the Bank of Canada nor the Federal Reserve raises its policy rate in the next six months imply that a recession is, at the earliest, a mid-to-late 2015 story. That being said, a stumble in the U.S. economic recovery, financial contagion emanating from Europe, a Chinese hard landing, the bursting of Canada�s presumed housing bubble, or a true black swan could wreak havoc on the economy without warning.

The last non-recessionary period in which the growth of the core-age population consistently trended higher than job growth was mid-1995 to early 1997, a time of fiscal consolidation. Given that the current government is working to balance Canada�s budget, it might be tempting to assume that Prime Minister Stephen Harper is to blame for anemic job creation. This assumption, however, appears to be false.

Jean Chr�tien�s plan to get Canada�s fiscal house in order in the 1990s undoubtedly played a key role in pushing total employment growth below that of the core-age population: public sector employment was consistently falling, while private sector employment was rising:

quote:

The same cannot be said for the current situation. The 12-month average for public sector monthly job growth turned positive in July and surpassed the 12-month average for private sector monthly employment growth in August:

quote:

Austerity�s drag on public-sector employment appears to have dissipated while private sector employment has fallen off a cliff. As such, one can�t simply blame Ottawa for extremely meager job growth.

The more likely culprit for Canada�s job woes is the lackluster global economy. However, the nation stands to benefit going forward, as the United States� economy finally appears to be approaching escape velocity after years of subpar GDP growth. A rising tide south of the border is likely to lift Canadian boats.

YOU ALL READY TO GET hosed??????

# ? Sep 8, 2014 20:24

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/509062775575171072

Start listening from 39 minutes:

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/Masters_in_Business/v04ThN5aOv8k.mp3

# ? Sep 8, 2014 20:49

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-08/toronto-vancouver-condos-lead-record-canada-building-permits.html

quote:

Toronto, Vancouver Condos Lead Record Canada Permits
By Greg Quinn Sep 8, 2014 8:00 AM PT 0 Comments Email Print
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Canadian building permits jumped to a surprise record in July, led by Toronto and Vancouver condominiums and apartments, at a time when the central bank says high home prices and indebted consumers remain a key risk to the economy.

Nationwide, permits rose 11.8 percent to C$9.16 billion in July, confounding economists in a Bloomberg survey who forecast a 5 percent decline. Residential and non-residential permits both reached records, rising 18.0 percent and 5.2 percent respectively.

Home sales and prices have shown unexpected strength this year as the lowest mortgage rates in decades spur demand. Policy makers including Finance Minister Joe Oliver have singled out the surge in condominium construction in Toronto and Vancouver for concern.

�All eyes are going to remain on Toronto�s new home building market over the next few months,� said Derek Burleton, deputy chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank.

�This does fit in with where the risks are tilted at the moment, and that�s a housing market that isn�t going to slow as much as most had expected this year,� he said, adding that today�s gain could still represent a temporary rebound after a tough winter deterred house hunters.

The value of municipal permits for multi-unit housing jumped 43.4 percent to C$2.54 billion, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. Total permits in Toronto rose 29.6 percent to C$1.65 billion while Vancouver surged 46.1 percent to C$718 million.

Household Imbalances

Bank of Canada policy makers said last week that risks posed by �imbalances� in household finances remain, as they kept their key interest rate at 1 percent.

�Low interest rates and an improving economic outlook are seemingly encouraging builders to apply,� Krishen Rangasamy, senior economist at National Bank Financial in Montreal, wrote in a research note. �It�s unclear, however, if all those permits will translate into actual construction in the multi category where there is reported excess supply in some cities.�

Municipalities approved 14,050 multi-family housing units in July, a gain of 35.2 percent from June and 23.8 percent from a year earlier. The number of units approved for single-family residences fell 0.6 percent on the month to 6,461 units and rose by 1.3 percent from 12 months earlier.

The condo market is booming because of how expensive single-family homes are in Canada�s big cities, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal said in a note before the Statistics Canada data was released.

Average Prices

The average home resale price in Vancouver was C$824,352 ($755,250) in July, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Aug. 15, a 6.3 percent increase from a year earlier. In Toronto the average price rose 7.3 percent over that time to C$560,882.

The gain in non-residential activity was led by government spending, rather than the business investment Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said is needed to bring about a sustainable recovery. Institutional spending rose 28.4 percent, while commercial projects rose 2.6 percent and industrial buildings dropped by 32.6 percent.

�The gain in Toronto was driven by higher construction intentions for multi-family dwellings and, to a lesser extent, institutional buildings,� Statistics Canada said today. �The increase in Vancouver came mainly from multi-family dwellings.�

The Canadian dollar remained weaker after the report. The currency depreciated 0.3 percent to C$1.0915 per U.S. dollar at 10:56 a.m. Toronto time.

# ? Sep 8, 2014 20:58

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# ? May 18, 2024 07:22

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

Are developers just desperately trying to build as much as they can and cash out before a crash or do they think they can build their way out?

# ? Sep 8, 2014 21:01

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