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Majorian posted:Basically this. He doesn't need to do much more, other than maintain a permanent crisis there to keep Ukraine weak. Ukraine stays out of NATO, probably doesn't join the EU anytime soon, and remains mostly reliant on Russia economically and to keep the electricity going. Creating a permanent crisis in a country bordering yours is a very risky move that can spectacularly backfire. War zones have the tendency to draw criminals, who are not guaranteed to stay on the Ukrainian side of the border. They also tend to become a breeding ground for pathogens which aren't well known for their respect to national borders. There is also the matter of training and arming a bunch of violent wannabe partisans, then giving them all the credit for taking Donbass. History shows that such groups have a tendency of biting the hand that feeds them.
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Sep 10, 2014 23:21
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Gantolandon posted:There is also the matter of training and arming a bunch of violent wannabe partisans, then giving them all the credit for taking Donbass. History shows that such groups have a tendency of biting the hand that feeds them.
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Sep 10, 2014 23:28
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MP, the only forceful takeover I remember was by green men and the Crimean Rada, not euromaidan.
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Sep 10, 2014 23:29
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Gantolandon posted:Creating a permanent crisis in a country bordering yours is a very risky move that can spectacularly backfire. War zones have the tendency to draw criminals, who are not guaranteed to stay on the Ukrainian side of the border. They also tend to become a breeding ground for pathogens which aren't well known for their respect to national borders. There is also the matter of training and arming a bunch of violent wannabe partisans, then giving them all the credit for taking Donbass. History shows that such groups have a tendency of biting the hand that feeds them. Oh, it's definitely a risky strategy. But I'm sure that's part of why there are so many Russian soldiers massed near the border. Obviously part of it is to support the separatists, but I'd imagine they're also there to keep the conflict from spilling over into Russia. Rent-A-Cop posted:I don't think Putin cares much about that eventuality. Worst case scenario he blames it all on homonazis and just flattens Donetsk like Grozny. The Russians have developed a set of tactics that are very effective at destroying partisan groups, and everything else within several thousand meters of said groups. That too.
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Sep 10, 2014 23:30
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Rent-A-Cop posted:I don't think Putin cares much about that eventuality. Worst case scenario he blames it all on homonazis and just flattens Donetsk like Grozny. The Russians have developed a set of tactics that are very effective at destroying partisan groups, and everything else within several thousand meters of said groups. A lot of them are Russian citizens living in major Russian cities. I can see Putin deciding to flatten Donetsk, but doing the same with Moscow or St. Petersburg is going to be difficult.
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Sep 10, 2014 23:31
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SA_Avenger posted:Ugh in my opinion Europe is already antagonizing Russia way too much and forgetting that everything they do now will have long term consequences. I'd have much more preferred for Europe to negotiate deals with Russia and let it do whatever they wanted in Ukraine than what they do now. The end result will be the same anyway for Ukraine but at least in the long term we would have had better ties with Russia and less economic harshness down the drain. Ukraine is not part of NATO nor EU, Russia will do anything for it not to join either and noone is going to stop that except if we are willing to go for WW3 (I hope noone is). Russia is a local power but it's a power that is rising back and we may regret all this 20-30 years from now. This is straight up purestrain D&D right here. "Europe should roll over and spread it's legs for Russia, BECAUSE!"
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Sep 10, 2014 23:31
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Holy poo poo I was just reading that conspiracy woman's wiki article (obviously written by her insane self) 
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Sep 10, 2014 23:40
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SA_Avenger posted:Ugh in my opinion Europe is already antagonizing Russia way too much and forgetting that everything they do now will have long term consequences. I'd have much more preferred for Europe to negotiate deals with Russia and let it do whatever they wanted in Ukraine than what they do now. The end result will be the same anyway for Ukraine but at least in the long term we would have had better ties with Russia and less economic harshness down the drain. Ukraine is not part of NATO nor EU, Russia will do anything for it not to join either and noone is going to stop that except if we are willing to go for WW3 (I hope noone is). Russia is a local power but it's a power that is rising back and we may regret all this 20-30 years from now. This is incredibly stupid for practical reasons. Appeasement doesn't work, because a belligerent actor isn't going to stop their actions without any opposition. Russia isn't going to negotiate with the West if it can simply take everything it wants without anyone batting an eye.
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Sep 10, 2014 23:41
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Gantolandon posted:A lot of them are Russian citizens living in major Russian cities. I can see Putin deciding to flatten Donetsk, but doing the same with Moscow or St. Petersburg is going to be difficult. I wouldn't overestimate how much pull anti-Putin groups have in Russia. A few anti-government protests in Moscow doesn't change the fact that the rest of the country is firmly behind him. (especially when, if he had his druthers, he would move the capital to St. Petersburg in a heartbeat) Gantolandon posted:This is incredibly stupid for practical reasons. Appeasement doesn't work, because a belligerent actor isn't going to stop their actions without any opposition. Well, unless they think it won't be worth it. Given the fact that Russia's economy isn't particularly strong at the moment could act as a pretty good restraint. e: I mean, if you want a good German analogy to what Putin is doing in Ukraine, don't look to Hitler - look to Der Alte Fritz. Frederick the Great took Silesia when he did, not because the rest of Europe just decided to appease him. He made a very meticulous cost-benefit calculation in a moment of chaos (the War of Austrian Succession), decided it was worth the risk, and went for it. I don't buy for a second that Putin is somehow unaware of his country's limitations in the conquest department. Majorian fucked around with this message at 00:12 on Sep 11, 2014 |
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Sep 10, 2014 23:53
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Majorian posted:I wouldn't overestimate how much pull anti-Putin groups have in Russia. A few anti-government protests in Moscow doesn't change the fact that the rest of the country is firmly behind him. (especially when, if he had his druthers, he would move the capital to St. Petersburg in a heartbeat) I wouldn't put much hope in popular support, it can change in a heartbeat. Now they want to beat some homonazis, but it's hard to sustain nationalistic fervor without a constant stream of victories. Devastating Donbass is a consolation prize at best. quote:Well, unless they think it won't be worth it. Given the fact that Russia's economy isn't particularly strong at the moment could act as a pretty good restraint. That's what I were talking about - smart Europe would try to make military adventures a costly affair.
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Sep 11, 2014 00:23
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Majorian posted:e: I mean, if you want a good German analogy to what Putin is doing in Ukraine, don't look to Hitler - look to Der Alte Fritz. Frederick the Great took Silesia when he did, not because the rest of Europe just decided to appease him. He made a very meticulous cost-benefit calculation in a moment of chaos (the War of Austrian Succession), decided it was worth the risk, and went for it. I don't buy for a second that Putin is somehow unaware of his country's limitations in the conquest department. And Austria spent the next 150 years fighting Prussia until Prussia won.
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Sep 11, 2014 00:25
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Gantolandon posted:That's what I were talking about - smart Europe would try to make military adventures a costly affair. Europe is impotent and unwilling to deal with anything not related to domestic unemployment rates and standard of living though.
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Sep 11, 2014 00:31
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Radio Prune posted:Holy poo poo I was just reading that conspiracy woman's wiki article (obviously written by her insane self) LETTERS FROM THE INTERNET! (It's a great shame those haven't been done for a long time)
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Sep 11, 2014 00:34
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Gantolandon posted:I wouldn't put much hope in popular support, it can change in a heartbeat. Now they want to beat some homonazis, but it's hard to sustain nationalistic fervor without a constant stream of victories. Given that Putin's approval ratings have never dipped beneath 60%, I honestly doubt they will evaporate anytime soon, barring something completely out of left field. quote:That's what I were talking about - smart Europe would try to make military adventures a costly affair. If they felt it was worth the cost to themselves, sure they would. But odds are they won't, at least beyond a moderate degree of sanctions. Typo posted:And Austria spent the next 150 years fighting Prussia until Prussia won. Yeah, well, the Holy Roman Empire was a bit more of a world power then than Ukraine is now.
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Sep 11, 2014 00:41
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A few people in the thread seem to be under the impression that Putin's support was seriously suffering before the crisis hit, and that it can therefore be explained as a naked attempt to crank up his popular support. That's just not true. Putin did face problems around 2011-12, especially when the protests hit that winter, but his support in the polls stabilised back in the solid 60s later in 2012 and stayed there up until the start of the crisis. Gantolandon posted:I wouldn't put much hope in popular support, it can change in a heartbeat. Now they want to beat some homonazis, but it's hard to sustain nationalistic fervor without a constant stream of victories. Devastating Donbass is a consolation prize at best. I really disagree on this point to be honest. I am very pessimistic about the prospects of any meaningful break against Putin in Russian public opinion. The track record shows that Russian political technologists are extremely effective at their jobs, and they will pull out all the stops to make sure that Putin's core support remains where it is if things go south. The only people who I think are in any real danger of fluctuation are the well-educated creative classes who have a better chance of seeing through the various smokescreens, but they've always been politically peripheral, as the failure of the 2011-12 movement demonstrated.
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Sep 11, 2014 00:42
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Majorian posted:Who cares what looks appealing to non-NATO members, if NATO won't let them in? What's your basis for saying this is the case? Does this apply to all countries?
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Sep 11, 2014 01:15
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In calling Russian trolls "vatniks" online, I've been reported for racism now 3 times. One explained that it was the direct equal of me "calling a black person a friend of the family and I will punch your teeth out if I knew you irl". This doesnt really justify its own thread, but can any Russian Goon explain wtf is going on? I thought vatnik was just a reference to a garment of clothing/character meme that embodied the horrible "Soviet union supreme despite our lives being poo poo" mentality of Russian internet trolls? My Russian friend said its just the equivalent to calling an American a redneck. Is there some weird meaning behind the name/meme Im not grasping? Am I being an unintentional mega racist, or are Russians just confused that an American is using their meme? Sorry this isnt on-topic, but at least now you all know a way to offend Russians, apparently! 
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Sep 11, 2014 01:31
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Tell me, as NATO gathers together to accept Ukraine into NATO and Russia invades Ukraine before they do what is the response. Or does NATO have a super secret meeting where Ukraine joins NATO and then they announce it to the world and laugh at Russia and say "too slow". Do you think Russia would actually respect that? Do you actually think NATO would do that because that is not a defensive move, that is just playing games to declare war.
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Sep 11, 2014 01:33
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Discendo Vox posted:What's your basis for saying this is the case? Does this apply to all countries? NATO countries like France and Germany dragged their feet in 2008, at Brussels and then at Bucharest. I would be shocked if they've changed their tune in the interrim.
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Sep 11, 2014 01:35
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With love from Montenegro.  Near Grodno, Belarus, old tires were recycled into these rubber matts and a tank was used to test them to show how durable they are. Here are photos and a link to a video of the test. http://www.kp.by/online/news/1840589/ quote:Unusual ecological event was held at the tank firing range in the village Gozha   
HUGE PUBES A PLUS fucked around with this message at 01:45 on Sep 11, 2014 |
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Sep 11, 2014 01:41
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Dandywalken posted:My Russian friend said its just the equivalent to calling an American a redneck. This is how a redneck responds to being called redneck. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7Ggz-5XNuQ It isn't really considered an insult. "You are a redneck" response "gently caress yeah I am a redneck!" Seriously there are a lot of people here who take pride in "redneck" culture. Lowtechs fucked around with this message at 01:45 on Sep 11, 2014 |
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Sep 11, 2014 01:42
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:With love from Montenegro. Just looked it up: "Putin is a dickwad." Yup, similar to the Russian translation.
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Sep 11, 2014 01:53
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Also, I have no loving clue why the conspiracy crowd are saying it's a Ukrainian Su-25 that shot down MH17. Su-25s are a loving ground attack plane, they're like Warthogs, they fly low and slow and shoot things below them. You could have picked any plane, and you pick that one as the one to j'accuse?
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Sep 11, 2014 03:48
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The rebels initially thought/claimed they shot down an Su-25 IIRC, so they're probably claiming one shot MH17 down to make it jive better with their initial claims.
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Sep 11, 2014 03:54
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The Su-25 claim is hilarious, particularly the new idea that it shot it down with its gun. This is a plane that is not only slower than the 777, but also has a maximum altitude about 3 kilometers below MH17's cruise altitude in clean configuration with no weapons on the pylons. The maddest nose up trick shot head on from kilometers away at a high closing speed, with the whole burst hitting. 
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Sep 11, 2014 04:46
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They thought they shot down an Antanov carge plane, Ukraine was just operating Su-25s in the area and conspiracy theory nuts don't care about stuff like maximum altitudes. That's a good thing to know though, I didn't realize the Su-25 theory was impossible.
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Sep 11, 2014 05:02
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Can you imagine taking a slow ground attacker plane which is armored, carries only short-range IR missiles and LACKING RADAR and chucking it up to whatever altitude MH17 was at? e: The joke is you wouldn't
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Sep 11, 2014 05:07
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It's not strictly impossible, but it's about the shittiest plane possible if you wanted to shoot down an airliner. And they've got real fighters. It can carry short range missiles which could theoretically do the job, but since it can't catch the target it'd have to essentially ambush it and it'd only get one shot at it. A missile with a 3 kg warhead is also anything but guaranteed to actually bring down a plane that big. (compare with the Buk's 70 kg)
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Sep 11, 2014 05:09
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Arglebargle III posted:They thought they shot down an Antanov carge plane, Ukraine was just operating Su-25s in the area and conspiracy theory nuts don't care about stuff like maximum altitudes. That's a good thing to know though, I didn't realize the Su-25 theory was impossible. Ok, looks like you're right. I looked up the postings and they were calling it by the An-26 designation. I was only one off. 
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Sep 11, 2014 05:16
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Arglebargle III posted:They thought they shot down an Antanov carge plane, Ukraine was just operating Su-25s in the area and conspiracy theory nuts don't care about stuff like maximum altitudes. That's a good thing to know though, I didn't realize the Su-25 theory was impossible. There are later models of the Su-25 (Su-25TM and Su-25SM specifically), with an A2A radar in a belly mounted pod and capability of firing medium range missiles, which would stand a chance at taking down an airliner with an altitude advantage from head on. Only Russia has these models. 
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Sep 11, 2014 06:41
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Dandywalken posted:In calling Russian trolls "vatniks" online, I've been reported for racism now 3 times. One explained that it was the direct equal of me "calling a black person a friend of the family and I will punch your teeth out if I knew you irl". Consult lurkmore.to when in doubt about Russian memes/internet culture. In this instance, http://lurkmore.to/%D0%92%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA which pretty much confirms the impression you had. A Russian goon would be able to explain it better, but it is a loaded term. It's classist to an extent - something inbetween 'carpetbagger' and 'white-trash' - and is playing on the urban/rural divide. AFAIK there's a stereotype on uncouth villagers arriving to the cities, dressed in padded coats, carrying (how exactly do you manage to forget the word for cardboard, drat) cardboard suitcases and proceeding to promptly gently caress the cities up by not understanding plumbing and stealing everything that's not been nailed down well enough. Also see Sharikov in the 'Heart of a Dog'.
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Sep 11, 2014 06:49
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It's probably not a good idea to try to insult people in a language you don't know, especially if you're insulting people who do know it. Just saying.
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Sep 11, 2014 07:31
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Apparently Gazprom has started throttling its gas to Poland. On Monday the 8th the supply of gas "coming from the east" was reduced by 20%, on the 9th it was down by 24% of the amount ordered. Same today. No explanation from the Russians yet. (Polish links) http://www.rmf24.pl/ekonomia/news-juz-trzecia-dobe-dostajemy-mniej-gazu-z-rosji,nId,1498008 http://tvn24bis.pl/informacje,187/rosja-przykrecila-kurek-z-gazem-dzis-posiedzenie-sztabu-kryzysowego-pgnig,466791.html
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Sep 11, 2014 07:42
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So, does Poroshenko actually think that the Pro-Russian side will settle for this compromise or is it more of a last-ditch effort? http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/09/ukraine-poroshenko-autonomy-east-2014910163640362480.html quote:Ukraine leader pledges more autonomy for east
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Sep 11, 2014 08:04
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sparatuvs posted:Welp, DNR says it started beheading Ukrainian soldiers. That's a fake and it comes from the Syria.
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Sep 11, 2014 08:13
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For obvious reasons
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Communocracy posted:So, does Poroshenko actually think that the Pro-Russian side will settle for this compromise or is it more of a last-ditch effort? At this point it's good to at least have something on the table you can point to as a compromise. If you're the separatists you don't go through the effort of racking up a death toll in the thousands just for slightly more autonomy, but it helps emphasize that the separatists' demands are quite extreme and Ukraine would be willing to listen to and work with moderates in the area if there were any.
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Sep 11, 2014 08:25
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I would guess that Putin is setting up Poroshenko for a compromise serious enough for a "stab in the back" myth to implant itself in the well-armed ukranian militias. Add some IMF austerity and some gas shutoffs and you have a good chance at a ukranian societal collapse over the winter, allowing Putin to sweep up "historical novorossiya". If not he can still pull the same poo poo next spring/summer, albeit at a higher cost.
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Sep 11, 2014 08:32
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TeodorMorozov posted:That's a fake and it comes from the Syria. Did someone actually found the source picture or are you just assuming?
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Sep 11, 2014 08:36
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Typo posted:And Austria spent the next 150 years fighting Prussia until Prussia won. You could also make the comparison to US president Polk running total roughshod over Mexico. Hint: Mexican resistance didnt exactly work. As a matter of fact, Texan secession, the later US "manifest destiny" and the eventual US-Mexican war are far better historical analoges to Russias actions (well, not quite, to be a full analogon, Mexico would have needed French and British backing) than Hitler. Funnily enough, and that Mexican war analogy, the analoge to that times Russian empire (which was tacitly supporting a strong US because they saw them as an enemy of the British Empire, so, enemy of my enemy in full force) would be todays China.
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Sep 11, 2014 08:43
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Cheatum the Evil Midget posted:I would guess that Putin is setting up Poroshenko for a compromise serious enough for a "stab in the back" myth to implant itself in the well-armed ukranian militias. Add some IMF austerity and some gas shutoffs and you have a good chance at a ukranian societal collapse over the winter, allowing Putin to sweep up "historical novorossiya". If not he can still pull the same poo poo next spring/summer, albeit at a higher cost. That is a likely analysis. It appears that Russian decision making is somewhat undecided if a "Militias vs. Kiev" Civil War is neccessarily in their interest. However, if the Kievan goverment side wins, its strength will be diminished and Russia can negotiate with them from a clearly improved position, if the militias win Russia just has to wait for mistakes/wait until the militias alienate the west too much and then move in. There are of course a lot of things that could go horribly wrong with that. On balance however, they are imho considerably more likely to do this than not. I would intensivly observe where efforts of reinforcing the "stab in the back" myth come from. Quite a couple of seperatist commanders were active on that front (Paraphrased Strelkov: "Kiev military movements initially made no sense" Implied: "but when we took into account that some parts of them were trying to kill us, while also trying to get their own militias killed, we could in turn predict and thus defeat them much better"), if more official Russian sources join in (actual current Russian propaganda painting Azov etc. as Crack SS punishment units kind of goes into the other direction), it would be a strong indication of the "setting up" thesis being correct.
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Sep 11, 2014 08:57
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