Ebolavirus 2014: the r0 from shitposting is 6.9

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Ebolavirus 2014: the r0 from shitposting is 6.9

PupsOfWar: Dec 6, 2013

DARPA Dad posted:

My dad works in Nairobi as the dean of a new journalism school. Should I be telling him to get the hell outta there?

I'm worried about my daddy

Even if it escapes to East Africa, well-to-do people (other than healthcare professionals) should stay pretty safe unless the thing reaches apocalyptic proportions, I would think.

# ? Sep 15, 2014 05:55

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 02:31

Strongylocentrotus: Jan 24, 2007; Nab him, jab him, tab him, grab him - stop that pigeon NOW!

Slaan posted:

Internally in West Africa, the capacity for mass refugee movement in there. Loose borders, cheap transportation, relatively flat & easy terrain. Its quite likely for internal displacement to happen if things get worse, or cross-West African refugee movements. The governments could not stop it if they wanted to. Plus, the ethnic groups are highly mixed, so in an emergency I would not be surprised if people in harder hit regions try to return to their ancestral homelands. So the impetus is there.

Outside of West Africa? Not so much. Its surrounded by a bunch of natural barriers: the Ocean to the South/West, the Sahel/Sahara to the North and heavy forestation/Sahel to the East. Plus incredibly large distances in general. So once a refugee crisis begins, there is little chance of people actually getting out of the region without access to boats and airplanes.

This is what I was envisioning, the potential for massive internal displacement (plus cross-border leakage) in West Africa if people start abandoning urban areas and heavily hit villages. Any guesses on how long it would take for such an exodus, if it ever happens, to even be noticed and reported? I mean, it sounds like everything in SL and Liberia is already at the point of collapse, so I'm afraid news about any kind of displacement/refugee situation would be very slow to trickle out.

# ? Sep 15, 2014 06:44

Sheng-Ji Yang: Mar 5, 2014

Obama Admin is planning a "major Ebola offensive"

http://online.wsj.com/articles/obama-plans-major-ebola-offensive-1410738096

quote:

WASHINGTON�President Barack Obama plans to dramatically boost the U.S. effort to mitigate the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, including greater involvement of the U.S. military, people familiar with the proposal said.

Mr. Obama is expected to detail the plan during a visit Tuesday to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, these people said. Among the possible moves: sending additional portable hospitals, doctors and health-care experts, providing medical supplies and conducting training for health workers in Liberia and other countries.

Mr. Obama also is expected to urge Congress to approve the request he made last week for an additional $88 million to fund his proposal.

"There's a lot that we've been putting toward this, but it is not sufficient," Lisa Monaco, Mr. Obama's counterterrorism adviser, said in an interview Sunday. "So the president has directed a more scaled-up response and that's what you're going to hear more about on Tuesday."

The strategy has four components: control the outbreak at its source in West Africa; build competence in the region's public-health system, particularly in Liberia; bolster the capacity of local officials through enhanced training for health-care providers; and increase support from international organizations, such as the United Nations and the World Health Organization.

Mr. Obama plans to use a gathering of world leaders at the United Nations next week to seek commitments of funds, materials and health workers for a more robust international response.

The Ebola outbreak has infected at least 4,784 people as of Sept. 12, with 2,400 of them dying�a jump from 3,707 cases and 1,848 deaths as of Aug. 31. The true toll probably is much higher, the WHO says.

The Obama administration has grown increasingly concerned in the last two weeks, as infectious-disease and public-health experts warned that the global response is inadequate to subdue an epidemic that has spiraled out of control, and that it threatens the U.S. and other countries, not just West Africa.

Mr. Obama ordered a bolder U.S. effort about two weeks ago after CDC Director Tom Frieden briefed the White House on his findings from a trip to West Africa, senior administration officials said. Dr. Frieden said publicly on Sept. 2 that he saw dozens of patients lying on the ground in an Ebola treatment center because there weren't enough beds. "I could not possibly overstate the need for an urgent response," he said.

Mr. Obama's plan is a reaction to concern that the epidemic could significantly grow in West Africa, particularly in urban areas. Administration officials stress that the chances of an outbreak in the U.S. are low.

One rising concern among officials is the possibility that the virus could mutate in a way that would make it more dangerous.

The more the virus spreads from one human to another, the more opportunities it has to mutate, virologists say. While not all scientists agree that significant mutations that would change the way the virus is transmitted are likely, one recent study of virus samples over three weeks in Sierra Leone found many mutations.

While an administration official said a dangerous mutation of the virus is unlikely at this stage, "that is a concern that is motivating us to, and the international community more broadly, to get involved even more so now to bring this under control."

The CDC has at least 105 staff in West Africa�one of the largest deployments in CDC history�tracking down people who have been exposed to Ebola, conducting education campaigns, and other tasks. The government has spent more than $100 million on the outbreak since March, and recently committed an additional $75 million in funding, according to a U.S. Agency for International Development official. The money is used to deploy staff and deliver supplies, such as chlorine and water, as well as hospital beds.

The U.S. military has sent eight service members to the region, including doctors, a logistician and medical specialists. It also said it would send a 25-bed portable hospital unit to Liberia to help care for health workers, but it isn't planning to staff it. Many public-health and infectious disease experts have called for a greater U.S. military role, which is highly valued in humanitarian crises for its ability to command and control large operations, as well as its logistics expertise.

U.S. defense officials have ruled out sending hospital ships or the big-deck amphibious ships that frequently respond to humanitarian disasters. One official said if the virus got aboard one of those ships, it could quickly spread and would be difficult to stamp out.

These experts say that is what is needed in West Africa, because the governments of the three most affected countries�Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea �have been overwhelmed and their health-care systems have all but crumbled. The crisis also has become too large for aid organizations and health ministries to handle alone, they say. The current response, involving several local and international agencies and organizations, also lacks coordination.

The military could be used to direct supplies, set up tent hospitals, and tap the masses of medical personnel that are needed globally to get the sick into isolation and treatment, so they stop spreading the disease to others and improve their chances of recovery. Now, there are so few hospital beds that many are having to suffer through the disease at home, where they risk spreading it to loved ones.

And while hundreds of millions of dollars in aid have recently been pledged, under current circumstances it won't arrive in West Africa for weeks - by which time thousands more will be infected and dead.

Mr. Obama hopes to begin to turn the situation around with the rollout of his new strategy, administration officials said.

"We think these measures, this enhanced response, will help us bring this under control," an administration official said Sunday. "The military has unique capabilities in terms of logistical capacities, in terms of manpower, in terms of operating in austere environments."

The administration faces formidable challenges in carrying out any response plan. Not only is the virus now spreading fast, but health workers and epidemiologists have been physically attacked or run out of villages by angry or frightened locals. Some locals argue that Ebola is a bioweapon seeded by the West.

Joanne Liu, international president of Doctors Without Borders, called earlier this month for governments to send in their militaries. The aid organization has led treatment efforts since the beginning of the Ebola outbreak and has been warning for months that a bigger response is needed.

"Without this deployment, we will never get the epidemic under control," she said.

# ? Sep 15, 2014 08:43

ukle: Nov 28, 2005

Sheng-ji Yang posted:

Obama Admin is planning a "major Ebola offensive"

http://online.wsj.com/articles/obama-plans-major-ebola-offensive-1410738096

As it says this is just the $88 Million, which covers a few small medical centers, and military personal to guide some key sites. Its small fry compared to what is needed unfortunately. Just the UK alone is planning to build a bigger center than what the US are, and they are 'donating' a similar amount of money.

Biggest shocker is France, all they are looking at doing is build a Ebola research center in Guinea. Given the links France has to the region it really does show that the French don't give a drat what happens outside their own borders.

ukle fucked around with this message at 09:03 on Sep 15, 2014

# ? Sep 15, 2014 08:59

Top Bunk Wanker: Jan 31, 2005; Top Trump Anger

quote:

The strategy has four components: control the outbreak at its source in West Africa; build competence in the region's public-health system, particularly in Liberia; bolster the capacity of local officials through enhanced training for health-care providers; and increase support from international organizations, such as the United Nations and the World Health Organization.

All four of those look like goals to me, not plans. Sending one 25 bed unit without any support staff sounds like an even limper symbolic gesture than usual from President Obama, also.

# ? Sep 15, 2014 09:01

Sheng-Ji Yang: Mar 5, 2014

Yeah, I'm hoping it's $88 million on top of a large military medical deployment or something, how else could they get away with calling it a major offensive? Or is Obama just going to straight up pretend he's doing something while in actuality ignoring it?

I mean... you'd think the first world, if nothing else, would be concerned about their economic interests in West Africa.

# ? Sep 15, 2014 09:06

lurker1981: May 15, 2014; by XyloJW

Seriously though, it is a shame that more isn't being done to Save those afflicted with this terrible disease.

# ? Sep 15, 2014 09:10

ukle: Nov 28, 2005

In regards to the Venezuela not Ebola situation, looks like some of the people on Flutrackers might have figured out what it likely is, after they managed to get hold of some pictures of the dead, especially one baby.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=227561&page=2

Various of them seem to agree its the Plague. Which is just lovely, given good chance its a lot more endemic than the death toll suggests, just the other deaths could have been miss diagnosed. If it is the Plague, well that's going to stretch resources thin, as Venezuela will need outside help. Guess got to hope Cuba has even more doctors spare (Cuba are sending 160 Doctors and Nurses to West Africa).

# ? Sep 15, 2014 10:26

cucka: Nov 4, 2009; TOUCHDOWN DETROIT LIONS
Sorry about all
the bad posting.

lurker1981 posted:

Seriously though, it is a shame that more isn't being done to Save those afflicted with this terrible disease.

That might be the most fatalistic Christian thing I've ever seen.

"Earth is doomed! Death would be better guys!" is basically panel 1 and 2 respectively. It honestly saddens me that some demented old lady will probably find solace in that in between Freep visits.

# ? Sep 15, 2014 11:16

Isentropy: Dec 12, 2010

ukle posted:

As it says this is just the $88 Million, which covers a few small medical centers, and military personal to guide some key sites. Its small fry compared to what is needed unfortunately. Just the UK alone is planning to build a bigger center than what the US are, and they are 'donating' a similar amount of money.

Biggest shocker is France, all they are looking at doing is build a Ebola research center in Guinea. Given the links France has to the region it really does show that the French don't give a drat what happens outside their own borders.

Guinea is the only former Francafrique country seriously affected by the outbreak. Sierra Leone was a British colony, and Liberia was founded by ex-American slaves.

France does care about Africa, in a sense - they've intervened more than 50 times since 1960. Mostly to prop up the failed states they created such as Mali and Cote d'Ivoire. A full list is here for those interested.

# ? Sep 15, 2014 11:17

Zeroisanumber: Oct 23, 2010; Nap Ghost

DARPA Dad posted:

My dad works in Nairobi as the dean of a new journalism school. Should I be telling him to get the hell outta there?

I'm worried about my daddy

Nairobi is well away from the epicenter of the disaster and Kenya, for all of its faults, has its poo poo together for the most part. I wouldn't worry too much about it.

# ? Sep 15, 2014 14:09

Ebola Roulette: Sep 13, 2010; No matter what you ~~win~~ ~~lose~~ ragepiss.

http://www.hottfm1079.com/HottFM/

I listened to this Liberian radio station that Sheng-ji Yang posted in the GBS thread. It has a lot of excellent talk shows, where people call in. Some people were calling in and talking about not wanting to vote in the elections because they're worried about catching Ebola. They fear that elections will make the outbreak worse. This election could be really important for them, especially in the wake of the outbreak.

# ? Sep 15, 2014 15:13

DARPA Dad: Dec 9, 2008

Zeroisanumber posted:

Nairobi is well away from the epicenter of the disaster and Kenya, for all of its faults, has its poo poo together for the most part. I wouldn't worry too much about it.

Cool, ty

# ? Sep 15, 2014 17:47

dr_rat: Jun 4, 2001

Ebola Roulette posted:

http://www.hottfm1079.com/HottFM/

I listened to this Liberian radio station that Sheng-ji Yang posted in the GBS thread. It has a lot of excellent talk shows, where people call in. Some people were calling in and talking about not wanting to vote in the elections because they're worried about catching Ebola. They fear that elections will make the outbreak worse. This election could be really important for them, especially in the wake of the outbreak.

Found an article on it. http://www.voanews.com/content/liberia-to-hold-special-senatorial-election-amid-ebola-crisis/2447308.html

Looks like some people are saying the election should be postponed, but others saying that would cause a constitutional crisis and better to go a head regardless of the risk.

On the face of it, if all those who were showing symptoms were warned to stay home -I assume they wouldn't feel much like voting in that state anyway- seems like it shouldn't really affect the spread much. The main issue would seem to be a really low turn out due to people afraid to vote. It looks like the main thing is that the newly elected officials need to be ready to be sworn in by Jan next year. Seems they could move the date back a month or two and still do that, but I'm guessing no one is actually expecting an improvement in conditions in that short of time, so I guess it would probably be a bit pointless.

# ? Sep 15, 2014 18:06

HerStuddMuffin: Aug 10, 2014; YOSPOS

After all the talk about the Liberian government collapsing in the next two weeks, it seems really weird to worry about mid-October elections and mandates that won't start until January next year. Is the situation on the ground not really all that dire, or are they just rearranging the chairs on the Titanic deck, so to speak?

# ? Sep 15, 2014 19:29

Johnny Cache Hit: Oct 17, 2011

Some interesting recent updates I hadn't seen mentioned:

http://www.thenewdawnliberia.com/index.php/index.php/index.php/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=12654:whos-issuing-fake-death-certificates&catid=25:politics&Itemid=59 posted:

Health authorities in Monrovia have embarked on inspection of health facilities, vowing to probe public concern that �fake death certificates� are being issued to the families of deceased Ebola victims to allow them carry on burials.

Since the outbreak across West Africa that is badly hit, governments in the subregion have been urging citizens against concealing sick or dead persons. In Liberia, families are ordered to get a non-Ebola death certificate for deceased relatives before burial.

But the head of the Medical and Dental Council of Liberia, Dr. George Mulbah, told UNMIL Radio�s Coffee Break on Wednesday that �Some people are concerned that people are dying of Ebola, but are getting certificate of non-Ebola deaths.� �We are going to probe this�, said Dr. Mulbah, who warned that the council will apply code of ethics against those carrying on such practice.

Besides the issue of fake death certificates allegedly being issued here under this Ebola crisis, he said the council was carrying on inspection of drug stores and health centers to know who were providing services there. He feared that in some health facilities, individuals who have not been authorized to render health services could be operating, especially in unauthorized health centers.

As such, Dr. Mulbah said others who are not trained in handling cases could be infecting themselves and increasing the number of health workers infected with the Ebola virus, though they may not be legitimate health practitioners. The Ebola death toll in Liberia continues to rise above other infected West African countries, and the World Health Organization or WHO has not seen any decline yet in this outbreak.

As at Tuesday, the WHO said the region had Ebola casualties of 2,296, with Liberia leading the number of deaths ahead of Sierra Leone, Guinea and other infected countries.

This would mean underreporting of both cases and contacts. And you only have to consider the impact of one doctor in Nigeria to see what one infected HCW can do...

---

The DRC: http://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/update-ebola-virus-disease-drc-no10-12-september-2014

Suspected cases have dropped because some are confirmed. That's good. But there are 12 alerts - ten in the existing outbreak zone, which aren't surprising.

The other two: one is nearly 1300 KM away near Zambia - probably unrelated, because the distance is so great.

The more worrying one is in a military camp in Kinshasa. It's even farther away but with a military hospital there the possibility is more worrying.

Testing will reveal what's up there.

---

There was an earlier discussion on contact precautions and Ebola. This "editorial" was published on PMM:

quote:

Infection control concerning EVD is not working, especially when more than 240 [now 300] healthcare personnel have been infected, and more than 120 workers have died. Guidelines used to control SARS in 2003 should be used, not "contact and droplet protection of 1-2 meters," as is still recommended by WHO.

Personal protective equipment (PPE) for contact and airborne infections should be used because of
a) respiratory symptoms,
b) a big distance -- up to 9 meters -- for droplets when coughing and sneezing (Bourouiba et al. J Fluid Mechanics 2014;745:537-563.),
c) re-aerolization from the environment, bed clothes etc.,
d) long survival of the virus outside the body, and
e) high lethality.

Healthcare workers (HCW) and helpers should be protected with PPE as they were during the SARS epidemic. The SARS epidemic was an infection control success by the healthcare system of some countries in Asia in 2003. But WHO should not repeat the same failure as was done during the early phase of the SARS-epidemic by using "contact and droplet isolation." Separate hospitals for EVD should be built, like in China (1000 beds in 8 days for SARS), and only patients with laboratory documented EVD should be cohorted. Suspected cases should be isolated separately.

HCW and helpers should be trained and especially observed concerning [putting] PPE on and taking [it] off. The observers should also use PPE. During the SARS epidemic, HCW were re-contaminated by not knowing how to take off PPE.

Right now the WHO/CDC definitions call for droplet precautions only. If airborne precautions become recommended this means HCWs will have to switch to N95 masks instead of surgical masks. The cost will be significant and could prove to be a real logistical nightmare...

# ? Sep 15, 2014 20:19

lurker1981: May 15, 2014; by XyloJW

cucka posted:

That might be the most fatalistic Christian thing I've ever seen.

"Earth is doomed! Death would be better guys!" is basically panel 1 and 2 respectively. It honestly saddens me that some demented old lady will probably find solace in that in between Freep visits.

Actually, I remember reading about the start of the Ebola thing back in January or February. Somewhere around there the CDC publicly announced that they were going to be suppressing all press releases relating to Ebola infections (presumably because they thought keeping the world ignorant about a potential plague was a good idea).

I don't want to know what it would be like if Ebola started being a problem here in the USA. Maybe I'll be one of the lucky ones that survive infection.

lurker1981 fucked around with this message at 20:47 on Sep 15, 2014

# ? Sep 15, 2014 20:34

Meatwave: Feb 21, 2014; Truest Detective - Work Crew Division.

If you guys are bored, a fun thing to do is look at news articles from a few months ago and see who was downplaying the outbreak. For example:

Fears Of Ebola Outbreak Spreading From Guinea Unfounded, Health Officials Say
http://www.ibtimes.com/fears-ebola-outbreak-spreading-guinea-unfounded-health-officials-say-1566750

As Ebola spreads in Africa, how worried should West be?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/04/06/ebola-virus-west-africa/7314875/

That last one features this quote from the WHO's Gregory Hartl:

quote:

"This outbreak isn't different from previous outbreaks."

And this:

quote:

The international community has gotten fairly good at containing such outbreaks, bringing in protective gear for health workers, isolating the sick and tracking down every person those infected have come into contact with, says John O'Connor of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, which has a team in Guinea.

Oooh here's another one with the WHO's Gregory Hartl at work again:

WHO says Guinea Ebola outbreak small as MSF slams international response
http://news.yahoo.com/says-guinea-ebola-outbreak-small-msf-slams-international-202515910.html

Meatwave fucked around with this message at 21:25 on Sep 15, 2014

# ? Sep 15, 2014 21:21

My Imaginary GF: Jul 17, 2005; by R. Guyovich

Technically speaking, Hartl was correct. The first wave of the outbreak was contained before the second tower was hit, figuratively speaking. I did an effortpost write-up on it in the GBS thread with timeline.

E: This taxicab story on Hott107FM :staredog:

Its in the taxicab system as means of amplification. Resources are limited. Who do you let into the treatment centers? Solely triage care in Liberia.

# ? Sep 15, 2014 21:24

Meatwave: Feb 21, 2014; Truest Detective - Work Crew Division.

My Imaginary GF posted:

Technically speaking, Hartl was correct. The first wave of the outbreak was contained before the second tower was hit, figuratively speaking. I did an effortpost write-up on it in the GBS thread with timeline.

E: This taxicab story on Hott107FM

Its in the taxicab system as means of amplification. Resources are limited. Who do you let into the treatment centers? Solely triage care in Liberia.

Yeah, I'm kinda being a dick here, but it's still interesting to do a bit of monday morning quarterbacking.

# ? Sep 15, 2014 21:28

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Even a few weeks ago people were talking about an over response being worse for the region than the disease.

# ? Sep 15, 2014 21:34

My Imaginary GF: Jul 17, 2005; by R. Guyovich

Meatwave posted:

Yeah, I'm kinda being a dick here, but it's still interesting to do a bit of monday morning quarterbacking.

Oh, I completely agree the response was left minimal due to quarterly management matrix efficiency progress evaluations. It wasn't that EVD hit, it was that the major amplification occured at the end of the quarter. The causative relation between those two will be debated for decades after this.

Xandu posted:

Even a few weeks ago people were talking about an over response being worse for the region than the disease.

An over response would not only be worse for the region, it would be worse for my career. Therefore, we must under respond and rely upon our community network partners.

# ? Sep 15, 2014 21:35

Zeroisanumber: Oct 23, 2010; Nap Ghost

lurker1981 posted:

I don't want to know what it would be like if Ebola started being a problem here in the USA. Maybe I'll be one of the lucky ones that survive infection.

You're orders of magnitude more likely to die of a bad flu. And we have our own flavor of viral hemorrhagic fever in the US, it's called Hantavirus.

# ? Sep 15, 2014 21:56

IAMNOTADOCTOR: Sep 26, 2013

Zeroisanumber posted:

You're orders of magnitude more likely to die of a bad flu. And we have our own flavor of viral hemorrhagic fever in the US, it's called Hantavirus.

Not to mention dengue and the associated hemorrhagic fever is slowly gearing up to become endemic in the US.

# ? Sep 15, 2014 22:57

My Imaginary GF: Jul 17, 2005; by R. Guyovich

IAMNOTADOCTOR posted:

Not to mention dengue and the associated hemorrhagic fever is slowly gearing up to become endemic in the US.

Unfortunately, its doing so at a time when its control efforts were expected to be allocated for the pre-Ebola FY16/17 WHO budget. Now, if Dengue and chikamungya (apologies spelling) become endemic in US while EVD remains exponential in Africa....simple mistakes may allow for nosocomial issues.

# ? Sep 15, 2014 23:02

EXTREME INSERTION: Jun 4, 2011; by LadyAmbien

Zeroisanumber posted:

You're orders of magnitude more likely to die of a bad flu. And we have our own flavor of viral hemorrhagic fever in the US, it's called Hantavirus.

Once in a while the flu shifts and kills a bunch of young people. Heck, I'm a little scared of the flu sometimes

# ? Sep 15, 2014 23:06

grenada: Apr 20, 2013; Relax.

My Imaginary GF posted:

Unfortunately, its doing so at a time when its control efforts were expected to be allocated for the pre-Ebola FY16/17 WHO budget. Now, if Dengue and chikamungya (apologies spelling) become endemic in US while EVD remains exponential in Africa....simple mistakes may allow for nosocomial issues.

I'm working in the Caribbean and it is amazing how fast Chikungunya spread. Everyone I have talked to says it is incredibly painful and dengue pales in comparison to it. Joint and muscle pain can last for months to years after you recover. It's not deadly, but I can see the CDC focuses on it due to how much long term pain it can cause.

# ? Sep 16, 2014 00:18

My Imaginary GF: Jul 17, 2005; by R. Guyovich

A major lol I just came across in the logistics figure: China is counting 'donations' of Tsingtao beer to be sold at market in their 'economic aid/EVD outbreak' contribution figures.

Well, it is cleaner than drinking water. Mostly.

# ? Sep 16, 2014 00:34

Lote: Aug 5, 2001; Place your bets

laxbro posted:

I'm working in the Caribbean and it is amazing how fast Chikungunya spread. Everyone I have talked to says it is incredibly painful and dengue pales in comparison to it. Joint and muscle pain can last for months to years after you recover. It's not deadly, but I can see the CDC focuses on it due to how much long term pain it can cause.

drat. That must be pretty painful if it's more painful than breakbone fever.

# ? Sep 16, 2014 00:36

Ebola Roulette: Sep 13, 2010; No matter what you ~~win~~ ~~lose~~ ragepiss.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...e40e_story.html

quote:

For Lance Plyler and the other health workers treating Ebola patients at the small missionary hospital in Liberia, exhaustion came in many forms.

The physical demands of working under layer upon layer of protective gear, sweating profusely in the sweltering African heat. The mental challenge of staying alert to the risk of infection while caring for patients suffering bouts of vomiting, diarrhea and fever. The realization that no matter how hard they tried, most patients would die anyway.

�It�s despair on all fronts,� said Lance Plyler, a U.S. doctor who led the Liberian disaster response efforts for the international relief organization Samaritan�s Purse. �It wears on you after a while. . . . It breaks some people.�

# ? Sep 16, 2014 02:31

Charlz Guybon: Nov 16, 2010

Time to sing the Doom Song

http://www.democracynow.org/2014/9/15/underestimated_and_ignored_growing_ebola_epidemic

quote:

LAURIE GARRETT: Well, the numbers are really unknown. I mean, this is the big problem we have, is that because the hospitals are completely overfull, people are literally dying on the sidewalks and in the dirt roads outside the hospitals, not able to get admitted. We know that the majority of people are now keeping family members in their homes, not bringing them forward. And so, all the numbers you hear are a gross undercount, and they represent only laboratory-confirmed cases. So, most of the people on the ground are saying that it�s understated threefold, which would say that we have something in the neighborhood of 12,000 to 15,000 cumulative cases already.

The other thing to keep in mind is that while we�re focused on three nations that are really, really devastated�Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea�we also have cases in Senegal, in Nigeria, and then a completely separate and different strain of the virus is breaking out in Equator, Democratic Republic of Congo. And that epidemic is also proving more difficult to control than people had initially thought. So, I think we�re in a turning point, where�and I would say that everybody that I�ve spoken to on the ground and everybody in leadership on this would agree with me, that we�re at a turning point. And we either find a way to mobilize on a scale unprecedented in modern time for epidemic response, or we will be looking at something like a quarter-million cases by Christmas.

Charlz Guybon fucked around with this message at 02:45 on Sep 16, 2014

# ? Sep 16, 2014 02:43

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Is there a recent all cause morality rate for any of these countries?

# ? Sep 16, 2014 02:46

Charlz Guybon: Nov 16, 2010

Finally some good news? Sounds nice, but how long will this take to get on the ground? These things take weeks to get on the ground usually, sometimes more, and every two weeks to three the numbers double.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/09/15/ebola-crisis-obama-administration-to-request-1-billion-to-fight-outbreak/

quote:

The Obama administration plans to ask Congress to approve $1 billion to fight Ebola, sources say, as the U.S. military command in Africa makes countering the deadly disease its highest priority.

The increased funding would result in the deployment of approximately 3,000 U.S. military personnel, the creation of a joint task force commanded by a three-star officer, military provision of logistics and mobility support, three field medical facilities and a training program for health care workers, a source told Fox News on Monday.

The support is estimated to last at least six months and cost upwards of $1 billion dollars, with estimated daily costs of at least $5.4 million a day.

The request would not be in addition to money that's already been approved, but rather, re-appropriating existing funding.

# ? Sep 16, 2014 02:54

Sheng-Ji Yang: Mar 5, 2014

Charlz Guybon posted:

Finally some good news?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/09/15/ebola-crisis-obama-administration-to-request-1-billion-to-fight-outbreak/

loving finally. This could actually do something. Lets hope it's not too late.

# ? Sep 16, 2014 02:57

AVeryLargeRadish: Aug 19, 2011; I LITERALLY DON'T KNOW HOW TO NOT BE A WEIRD SEXUAL CREEP ABOUT PREPUBESCENT ANIME GIRLS, READ ALL ABOUT IT HERE!!!

Charlz Guybon posted:

Time to sing the Doom Song

http://www.democracynow.org/2014/9/15/underestimated_and_ignored_growing_ebola_epidemic

Yeah, no chance of stemming the tide in Liberia, Guinea or SL at this point, not unless 60k-100k beds and 300k-500k staff can get on the scene in the next month or so. Should probably focus on containing the smaller outbreaks elsewhere and coming up with a plan to deal with the inevitable flood of infected and uninfected but starving refugees. :sigh:

# ? Sep 16, 2014 03:03

Charlz Guybon: Nov 16, 2010

Sheng-ji Yang posted:

loving finally. This could actually do something. Lets hope it's not too late.

I don't think it is. Even if all 3,000 of those sent were health care workers, and they're not (many will be logistics or guards), that would still only be enough to man 1052 beds and at this stage that is unfortunately not enough, let alone in 2-4 weeks or whenever they get there.

# ? Sep 16, 2014 03:12

Zeroisanumber: Oct 23, 2010; Nap Ghost

Charlz Guybon posted:

Finally some good news? Sounds nice, but how long will this take to get on the ground? These things take weeks to get on the ground usually, sometimes more, and every two weeks to three the numbers double.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/09/15/ebola-crisis-obama-administration-to-request-1-billion-to-fight-outbreak/

Congress won't give Obama a billion dollars in an election year to keep those dirty Mexicans out of Texas. He'll ask, and they'll tell him to get hosed.

# ? Sep 16, 2014 03:14

Novikov: Aug 9, 2014

AVeryLargeRadish posted:

Yeah, no chance of stemming the tide in Liberia, Guinea or SL at this point, not unless 60k-100k beds and 300k-500k staff can get on the scene in the next month or so. Should probably focus on containing the smaller outbreaks elsewhere and coming up with a plan to deal with the inevitable flood of infected and uninfected but starving refugees.

Why can't we provide those resources? We obviously have the logistics; fleets of carriers, factories aplenty, etc.

# ? Sep 16, 2014 03:17

Sheng-Ji Yang: Mar 5, 2014

Zeroisanumber posted:

Congress won't give Obama a billion dollars in an election year to keep those dirty Mexicans out of Texas. He'll ask, and they'll tell him to get hosed.

I guess we'll be able to blame the coming plague on the Republicans at least.

# ? Sep 16, 2014 03:17

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 02:31

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Zeroisanumber posted:

Congress won't give Obama a billion dollars in an election year to keep those dirty Mexicans out of Texas. He'll ask, and they'll tell him to get hosed.

It sounds like they're just rearranging DoD funding, but you're probably right.

# ? Sep 16, 2014 03:18

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Ebolavirus 2014: the r0 from shitposting is 6.9

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