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DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:This is a BIG deal. Remember, RTR was drafted RTR 3x and GTC was drafted GTC 3x. KTK will be drafted KTK 3x and THEN KTK 2x FR 1x. It's going to be opened 66% more by drafters, even assuming the same number of drafts fire-- and they won't, Magic has grown since 2012. This is not to mention stores and people who normally don't buy much product cracking packs for Fetches. Yes, the same happened with shocks, but fetches are relevant across four formats (counting Standard and Vintage, though I'm not sure why I'm counting the latter) and shocks are only relevant in two. Agreed, and 100% NOT the point I was trying to make. Thanks for trying though!
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Sep 17, 2014 23:49
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DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:This is a BIG deal. Remember, RTR was drafted RTR 3x and GTC was drafted GTC 3x. KTK will be drafted KTK 3x and THEN KTK 2x FR 1x. It's going to be opened 66% more by drafters, even assuming the same number of drafts fire-- and they won't, Magic has grown since 2012. This is not to mention stores and people who normally don't buy much product cracking packs for Fetches. Yes, the same happened with shocks, but fetches are relevant across four formats (counting Standard and Vintage, though I'm not sure why I'm counting the latter) and shocks are only relevant in two. RTR came back with Dragon's maze, and shocks were in DGM as well, meaning that even the original 5 shocks saw the same drafting that Khans will (5 effective packs). Also, fetches are getting added into modern, while people playing modern generally had some number of shocks before anyway. And while the supply will be higher due to more people opening them, so will the demand. You can't just go "there's more people opening packs ergo supply higher and prices=lower", modern and standard are bigger than they were 2 years ago. Not to mention the actual legacy demand for them. It's a complicated puzzle.
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Sep 17, 2014 23:50
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I've missed cube  Currently playing a Mono Black abomination I should not have been allowed to draft. I just 2-0ed a GR ramp player without even trying....Phyrexian Obliterator is kind of game when it hits the field, they have zero ways to remove it without damage. Playing Braids the next turn was particularly mean (I already hit him with Inquisition of Kozilek, Sinkhole, and Hymn to Tourach in the opening turns). Seriously, how was black THIS open... Whoever posted that finance article earlier prompted me to sell some poo poo and make a few preorders; I hadn't realized how underpriced a few things were right now, might as well snatch them up. I'm so used to overhype in preorder pricing and usually avoid it, but I'll take $4 Butcher of the Horde and $8 UberClone(TM).
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Sep 17, 2014 23:52
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Some Numbers posted:Agreed, and 100% NOT the point I was trying to make. Thanks for trying though! Hey, cool, no sweat, just wanted to make sure that people casually following the conversation had a complete picture of all of the facts, including the ones you hand-waved away. Let me know next time you need me to fill in a big unstated assumption on a predictive post. sarmhan posted:There's a lot of other things going into it though. Remember, DGM had all 10 shocks, so the rarity of a given shock was less. Also, the chance of opening any shocks at all was about half of a GTC or RTR pack, so the probability of opening a given shock was 1/4 of what it would have been. So RTR was drafted 3x at once for 4 months, then 1x at once for 4 months, plus a DGM pack that has about a quarter of the probability for 4 months. GTC was drafted 3x at once for 3 months, then 1x at once for 4 months, plus a DGM pack that has about a quarter of the probability for 4 months. KTK will be drafted 3x at once for 4 months, then 2x at once for 3 months. That's a bit higher than RTR (only about 6%), but almost 30% more than Gatecrash. Factor in how many more people are opening packs and I think it's even higher. Now, it's true that demand will go up. Without knowing what Standard looks like it's hard to tell if Standard demand will drive fetches, or if it'll be mostly Modern players. Shocks are generally more powerful in Standard than fetches, but fetches are much, much more demanded in eternal formats. This is also opening the door to people who are thinking of starting Modern but kept out due to the high price of the manabases (Lilianas, Bobs, Goyfs, Cryptics, Cliques and Snapcasters are still pricy, but I've found that for a lot of people there's a psychological block to spending large amounts on a manabase rather than gas). I don't want to make solid price predictions but I'd expect the fetches that aren't named Polluted Delta to be around $10 for the majority of their time in Standard. That also depends highly on whether ZEN fetches are in Louie, which is a speculation with scant evidence.
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Sep 18, 2014 00:06
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Bugsy posted:No its Nacatls4life just like his twitter name. Thats just someone else's list he used for the PTQ. Wescoe has to play in PTQs?
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Sep 18, 2014 00:07
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BaronVonVaderham posted:I've missed cube That'd be me, and it's funny you bought clone at $8 when I specifically said it would drop. $4 butcher is reasonable though.
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Sep 18, 2014 00:16
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Reminder that casual players will never, ever value fetch lands highly so the demand will be purely in competitive players minds. Casuals hate losing life.
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Sep 18, 2014 00:31
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frameset posted:Wescoe has to play in PTQs? Got platinum at PT Dragon's Maze giving him invites through M15, so I guess he didn't qualify for KTK. Man, time flies in this game.
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Sep 18, 2014 00:37
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frameset posted:Wescoe has to play in PTQs? I'm pretty sure they don't just invite you for no reason unless you're like a Hall of Famer or have done enough recently to get invited, e.g. winning PTQs or Pro Tour events. I wonder if people are still mad at Wescoe for that "betting scandal." Angry Grimace fucked around with this message at 00:40 on Sep 18, 2014 |
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Sep 18, 2014 00:37
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Angry Grimace posted:I'm pretty sure they don't just invite you for no reason unless you're like a Hall of Famer or have done enough recently to get invited, e.g. winning PTQs or Pro Tour events. I bet you  they are.
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Sep 18, 2014 00:43
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Korak posted:I bet you Gonna have to call a judge on that. (Source of this joke: a couple years back Craig Wescoe once called a judge on another player in the Top 8/16 portion of a GP because the other player made a joke about having bet $10 on himself with a friend and that the friend gave him 50-1 odds at the GP. Wescoe immediately called a judge and the other guy was DQ'd for gambling. The Magic playing community wasn't impressed by Wescoe's knowledge of the rules.) Angry Grimace fucked around with this message at 00:51 on Sep 18, 2014 |
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Sep 18, 2014 00:46
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Korak posted:Reminder that casual players will never, ever value fetch lands highly so the demand will be purely in competitive players minds. Casuals hate losing life. If there's one trap that I've managed to avoid falling into while learning, it's this, and I honestly have to owe it to playing the poo poo out of Warlock in Hearthstone, which almost relies on losing life to win games. I initially WAS under the impression life seemed a little more important in Magic because you start with 20 instead of Hearthstone's 30, but upon playing with a monoblack deck in Cockatrice and seeing Thoughtseize, I was like 'Oh, so THIS is what losing life gets you here' (as opposed to Hearthstone's most complex use of it being like 1-2 less manacost than expected for minion stats).
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Sep 18, 2014 01:13
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The Wicked Wall posted:If there's one trap that I've managed to avoid falling into while learning, it's this, and I honestly have to owe it to playing the poo poo out of Warlock in Hearthstone, which almost relies on losing life to win games.
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Sep 18, 2014 01:17
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neetengie posted:Yeah, paying life usually pays off. Like playing the card Channel and Fireballing your opponent. I MISS U HATRED!!!
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Sep 18, 2014 01:18
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The Wonder Weapon posted:That'd be me, and it's funny you bought clone at $8 when I specifically said it would drop. That one was a necessity for a deck, not an investment, but I think it will stay around that mark in the long run.
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Sep 18, 2014 01:20
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Korak posted:Reminder that casual players will never, ever value fetch lands highly so the demand will be purely in competitive players minds. Casuals hate losing life. I admit I'm a newer player and paying life for stuff does put me off a bit. Is there a good explanation as to why you shouldn't be afraid to pay life?
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Sep 18, 2014 01:28
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Tracula posted:I admit I'm a newer player and paying life for stuff does put me off a bit. Is there a good explanation as to why you shouldn't be afraid to pay life?
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Sep 18, 2014 01:31
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Tracula posted:I admit I'm a newer player and paying life for stuff does put me off a bit. Is there a good explanation as to why you shouldn't be afraid to pay life? Life is an important resource, but it's one that you have a lot of. The only point that really matters is the last one. You shouldn't be afraid to lose life in order to keep a stronger board presence, or to get a powerful effect. As long as you can cause the game to end before your opponent can, it doesn't matter if you end up at 1.
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Sep 18, 2014 01:36
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Tracula posted:I admit I'm a newer player and paying life for stuff does put me off a bit. Is there a good explanation as to why you shouldn't be afraid to pay life? You know how in RTSs and RPGs and stuff, enemies mostly operate just as well at 1HP as they do at 50, because coding wounded disadvantages is a pain? And so it's pointless to cut them down to 1, because they're still just as dangerous and you need to finish them off? You are those enemies, basically. The loss of that last life point is crucial but the importance very quickly tapers off. (Exactly how quickly depends on the format, like how many surprise haste creatures/direct player damage spells/effects you want to play that cost life there are.) In general, people will liberally spend their life down to about 5 on even fairly trivial things (playing around unlikely combat tricks, a slightly better board position, whatever.) Then you start getting in range of sudden kills and the paradigm changes more toward preservation.
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Sep 18, 2014 01:39
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Tracula posted:I admit I'm a newer player and paying life for stuff does put me off a bit. Is there a good explanation as to why you shouldn't be afraid to pay life? Another reason is because often effects associated with life sacrificing are sometimes pretty strong while also being cheap enough in usual resources to get them out early; Fetch lands are a very good example of this (pay \/ \/ \/ \/ \/ Ah okay, thanks. That's another thing I've learned from this thread for the prerelease; hold onto my Fetch Lands! The Wicked Wall fucked around with this message at 01:48 on Sep 18, 2014 |
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Sep 18, 2014 01:41
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The Wicked Wall posted:Another reason is because often effects associated with life sacrificing are sometimes pretty strong while also being cheap enough in usual resources to get them out early; Fetch lands are a very good example of this (pay 2 life to get another specific land out quickly, letting you potentially snowball and ramp up your threats quicker). The previously mentioned Thoughtseize also comes to mind (1 black mana and 2 life to look at your opponent's hand and force them to discard a card you choose), which I can only imagine from my limited experience must completely gently caress some decks up with specific combo pieces? Also Fetchlands only require to pay 1 life - Shocklands require 2 to come in untapped, which is why they're called Shocklands - you shock yourself, etc.
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Sep 18, 2014 01:44
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Tracula posted:I admit I'm a newer player and paying life for stuff does put me off a bit. Is there a good explanation as to why you shouldn't be afraid to pay life? Do you always block every creature that attacks you regardless of whether the creature you block with will die? No. Of course not. By not blocking, you are paying life to save your creature. Expand that out to paying life to do things like drawing cards, making your opponent discard, and killing creatures and you can easily see why any given card can have more value than a small portion of your life total.
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Sep 18, 2014 01:46
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neetengie posted:Also Fetchlands only require to pay 1 life - Shocklands require 2 to come in untapped, which is why they're called Shocklands - you shock yourself, etc. "Scorching Spear Lands" was too much of a mouthful for paying 1 life, I guess.   Yes, that was actually a card that they thought was worth printing anywhere ever.
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Sep 18, 2014 01:46
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Just because you CAN do things in Cube, doesn't mean you should..... I just won against this bizarre UG Palinchron/Heartbeat of Spring/Genesis Wave combo by doing nothing. He would tap lands with Heartbeat out, bounce Palinchron, recast it, for a net of 1 mana. Repeat for about 20 minutes until he got a lot of spare mana floating, then cast Upheaval, recast Palinchron, and then Genesis Wave for a lot. Game 1 he got down to like 9 minutes left on his clock because when he went off I was still at 20 and he was in single digits (and couldn't include his Ancient Tomb in the combo for extra mana). The problem is he didn't NEED to do a wave for X=18, it was way overkill, and at the end he had like 6 power on board and a Ral Zarek. I actually almost won anyway, I was going to race him with a Stromkirk Noble (he was at like 6) and he finally killed me with only one card left in his library. He could have won MUCH faster, but he wasted an extra 5 minutes to make the wave way too big and then dick around with Ral Zarek when he didn't need to. Game 2 I rushed him to 1 life but then he started going off (used Primal Command to fetch Palinchron and gain life back). But, again, he overdid it and did a wave for 13, only hit a Jace and a Boreal Druid aside from lands. I was again at 20, he had 15 seconds left to kill me. GG, hope you had fun masturbating for half an hour? Easiest win ever. F6, go get coffee, come back and hit ok on his Genesis Wave reveal.
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Sep 18, 2014 01:49
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JerryLee posted:Yes, that was actually a card that they thought was worth printing anywhere ever. I was like weeeelll, maybe in the right Limited formats it could play a useful role. Then I saw Sorcery on it and just groaned.
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Sep 18, 2014 01:51
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Toshimo posted:Do you always block every creature that attacks you regardless of whether the creature you block with will die? No. Of course not. By not blocking, you are paying life to save your creature. Expand that out to paying life to do things like drawing cards, making your opponent discard, and killing creatures and you can easily see why any given card can have more value than a small portion of your life total. Thanks. That's probably the best and most concise way I've heard it put.
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Sep 18, 2014 01:52
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BaronVonVaderham posted:Just because you CAN do things in Cube, doesn't mean you should.....  Turn 5, he was getting dead draws with few lands. It was match 2 and I lost, but that was worth it.
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Sep 18, 2014 01:52
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The Wicked Wall posted:Another reason is because often effects associated with life sacrificing are sometimes pretty strong while also being cheap enough in usual resources to get them out early; Fetch lands are a very good example of this (pay 2 life to get another specific land out quickly, letting you potentially snowball and ramp up your threats quicker). The previously mentioned Thoughtseize also comes to mind (1 black mana and 2 life to look at your opponent's hand and force them to discard a card you choose), which I can only imagine from my limited experience must completely gently caress some decks up with specific combo pieces? Fetches only require you to pay 1 life, but the point still stands. For the shocklands, you can pay 2 life to have them enter untapped. Mana Confluence and City of Brass can produce any type of mana at the cost of one life each time. Painlands tap for colorless, or can tap for either of two mana types at the cost of 1 life each time. There are also plenty of card draw effects in black, such as Sign in Blood, which trade life for low CMC draw effects. Additionally, plenty of powerful effects (mostly in eternal formats) allow you to trade some life for a massive advantage. Cards like Fastbond, Necropotence, Channel, and Force of Will all require some life loss for their intended effects, but are powerful enough (or combo-able enough) that it doesn't matter. Force of Will-style payments of life in place of having to pay mana are particularly strong, given how slowly you accumulate mana, and how much life you have. Cards like Snuff Out, Griselbrand, Putrid Leech, and Demon of Death's Gate can be cast or activate their abilities even if you're tapped out. In short: You start with 20 life, but only need 1 to avoid losing. It's not a problem if you lose the other 19, so long as doing so allows you to win. Dr. Strange M.D. fucked around with this message at 02:24 on Sep 18, 2014 |
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Sep 18, 2014 02:06
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BaronVonVaderham posted:Just because you CAN do things in Cube, doesn't mean you should..... The sad part of this story is that if this was a real life draft, that deck sounds pretty loving sweet!
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Sep 18, 2014 02:37
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Nemico posted:The sad part of this story is that if this was a real life draft, that deck sounds pretty loving sweet! The sadder part is it's still pretty sweet online, you just have to actually have permanents for G-Wave to put out...and not grind up to like 35 mana with such an insanely long loop to go through. He HAD those games, he was just going overboard.
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Sep 18, 2014 03:18
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Sleep of Bronze posted:I was like weeeelll, maybe in the right Limited formats it could play a useful role. Then I saw Sorcery on it and just groaned. Although isn't that Portal, where there were only sorceries anyway?
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Sep 18, 2014 03:18
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Sarcastro posted:Although isn't that Portal, where there were only sorceries anyway? Including Mystic Denial, the Sorcery that counters Sorceries.
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Sep 18, 2014 03:22
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Jabor posted:Including Mystic Denial, the Sorcery that counters Sorceries.
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Sep 18, 2014 04:13
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 Just another Rip n Flip victim at my LGS. So many broken hearts. Somebody fucked around with this message at 14:29 on Sep 20, 2014 |
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Sep 18, 2014 04:25
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Vital Signs posted:
That is so satisfying! All of that art should be ripped up. Keep Bob on Bob!
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Sep 18, 2014 04:27
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JerryLee posted:
Well you know, they printed Mons's Goblin Raiders and Goblin Balloon Brigade in the same set so
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Sep 18, 2014 04:27
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Jabor posted:Including Mystic Denial, the Sorcery that counters Sorceries. I had to go to Gatherer to see what kind of elegant solution they had to make this work under modern rules. Turns out they just made it an instant at some point.
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Sep 18, 2014 04:29
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Mercury Crusader posted:Well you know, they printed Mons's Goblin Raiders and Goblin Balloon Brigade in the same set so How... I don't... what? 
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Sep 18, 2014 04:30
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BJPaskoff posted:I had to go to Gatherer to see what kind of elegant solution they had to make this work under modern rules. Yeah, they turned all of the Portal Sorceries-with-timing-restrictions into Instants (with the same timing restrictions) when casting them at Sorcery speed doesn't make sense. Of course, this means that Mystic Denial can't actually counter a decent number of spells that it used to be able to.
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Sep 18, 2014 04:35
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Rinkles posted:How... I don't... what? What I meant was that a one-mana red sorcery that only did one damage to a target when Lightning Bolt and Shock predate it isn't that crazy to think about at the time, especially since the beginning of the game had these two existing at the same time:   Also, rare Mons's Goblin Raiders and rare Goblin Hero are the best rares.
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Sep 18, 2014 04:39
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