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Lucy Heartfilia posted:Putin still knows his KGB playbook well. Eh, don't give him too much credit. I'm sure his strategy amounted to, "Let's gently caress these dipshits up," and then delegated the rest of the planning to Bortnikov and his underlings. Lucy Heartfilia posted:He is also the guy who is bringing back the Cold War! Old skool! Hey now - give Bush the credit he deserves here too!
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Sep 23, 2014 21:13
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Majorian posted:Hey now - give Bush the credit he deserves here too! He was a good president.
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Sep 23, 2014 21:18
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So, is there anything happening in the Ukraine?
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Sep 23, 2014 21:20
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Nuclear War posted:So, is there anything happening in the Ukraine? Nothing much. Ceasefire is holding. Still some fighting. Biggest problem is that the Ukrainian army is running out of weapons and other warfighting materials.
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Sep 23, 2014 21:23
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Lucy Heartfilia posted:Nothing much. Ceasefire is holding. Still some fighting. Biggest problem is that the Ukrainian army is running out of weapons and other warfighting materials. Err, you have a very loose definition of ceasefire holding.
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Sep 23, 2014 21:31
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At the moment there are talks to establish a buffer zone for example. But yes, there is still artillery shelling.
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Sep 23, 2014 21:33
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In Ukraine, "ceasefire" is defined as "Ukraine doesn't return fire when Russia attacks with tanks and mortars", so yes, the ceasefire is holding.
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Sep 23, 2014 22:02
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Lucy Heartfilia posted:Oh, we're talkig about fantasy scenarios. In this case I would be for occupying Russia, executing the elite and then rebuilding a proper country with democracy, rule of law and no corruption. I'd demolished the Kremlin as well. It seems anyone who inhabits it for long starts thinking they're the reincarnation of the Tsar. Lenin should have blown the whole thing up and run the Soviet Union out of a coffee shop.
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Sep 23, 2014 22:22
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Cat Mattress posted:In Ukraine, "ceasefire" is defined as "Ukraine doesn't return fire when Russia attacks with tanks and mortars", so yes, the ceasefire is holding. Nah, Ukraine is firing back, too. It's holding in a sense there haven't been any major attempts to advance the front line.
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Sep 23, 2014 22:25
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Young Freud posted:I'd demolished the Kremlin as well. It seems anyone who inhabits it for long starts thinking they're the reincarnation of the Tsar. Lenin should have blown the whole thing up and run the Soviet Union out of a coffee shop.
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Sep 23, 2014 22:29
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Just read that Reuters article and it does not surprise me at all that Putin is threatening Ukraine with cutting off trade ties costing billions. No, Ukraine does not have sovereignty, not in the way the west sees it. Ukraine, unlike Belarus or other former Soviet states actually managed to accomplish some nation building in the 90's, but Russia will never accept that.
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Sep 24, 2014 00:13
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Lucy Heartfilia posted:He was a good president. Perhaps you were unaware... 
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Sep 24, 2014 00:49
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Lead out in cuffs posted:While not factually inaccurate, any article pointing out the Ukrainian neonazis in Poroshenko's government kinda needs to also point to those in Putin's, as well as the broad support and actual ties between Putin's government and far right groups internationally. But, well, the halcyon days when journalism and balanced reporting meant something are apparently long over. It's just all these people talking about invading russia and forcing them to learn proper democracy and non-corruption need to realize we kinda need to do ukraine first. Other consideration is the West may find Ukraine to be a less than stable or democratic partner, so geopolitically speaking you have to ask why you want to go the hilt against a great power to gain a corrupt burden that may be about to experience a far-right insurrection, particularly given the EU is already struggling dealing with members on its periphery and the US has its own Middle East and China woes. http://www.stratfor.com/image/ukraine-regional-gdp I do think they are heavily subsidized so GDP overstates their net benefit to Ukraine, but the point is ridiculing the east as an economic basket case who are foolish, budget-wise, for cutting themselves off from the rest of ukraine is a bit rich considering the whole of Ukraine is mostly a worse basket case than Donetsk is.
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Sep 24, 2014 00:53
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The head of the Minsk Investigative Committee, Dmitry Konoplyanik, was detained at the Belarusian-Lithuanian border because he tried to enter the country with a few dozen 9mm cartridges in the car. http://news.tut.by/society/416694.html quote:On Sunday evening at the Belarusian-Lithuanian border was delayed a couple of Belarus, which is not declared the pistol cartridges, reported by our users. The man was very similar to the head of the Investigative Committee in Minsk.
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Sep 24, 2014 01:53
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Cheatum the Evil Midget posted:It's just all these people talking about invading russia and forcing them to learn proper democracy and non-corruption need to realize we kinda need to do ukraine first.
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Sep 24, 2014 05:15
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A Buttery Pastry posted:We tried that, it resulted in a Russian invasion. Actually, to be more accurate, we tried it in Russia, and it resulted in a Russian invasion. e: I'm not saying this as a tu quoque argument, mind you. What I'm saying is that the West needs to start being really loving careful about how it talks about exporting democracy and capitalism. At this point, our track record isn't all that great when it comes to imposing our way of doing things in countries that may not really want us there. Majorian fucked around with this message at 06:05 on Sep 24, 2014 |
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Sep 24, 2014 05:39
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Majorian posted:Actually, to be more accurate, we tried it in Russia, and it resulted in a Russian invasion. They didn't want NATO membership prior to this but they sure as hell wanted EU membership, democracy, lower corruption and some form of market economics. As far as I am concerned the west is pretty loving great at exporting democracy and capitalism. And how could it not be when there are so many willing takers...
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Sep 24, 2014 10:36
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Donetsk airport as of one hour ago.  The Ukrainian pilot being held by the Russians has been moved to an unknown location according to her lawyer. http://24tv.ua/home/showSingleNews....campaign=social quote:Hope Savchenko etapuvaly of Voronezh jail-3. This became known only this morning. Savchenko, according to the prison administration, was taken on Monday. Her location is not known. We expect the official investigation reports that where Hope Savchenko, Norway and Japan imposed sanctions yesterday, and the EU says they may allow current sanctions to stay in place. http://en.itar-tass.com/world/750891 http://www.gazeta.ru/business/news/2014/09/24/n_6505329.shtml http://24today.net/open/153856
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Sep 24, 2014 11:41
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So yesterday Italy froze some assets (Villas) owned by some Putin buddies/oligarchs/judo partners. Today, someone introduced a law in the Russian Duma providing for compensation of such as things from the state budget. Among arguments: complaints that it infringes on sovereignty of Russia for a lawsuit against Russian citizen to be decided by foreign courts.
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Sep 24, 2014 14:46
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OddObserver posted:So yesterday Italy froze some assets (Villas) owned by some Putin buddies/oligarchs/judo partners. Today, someone introduced a law in the Russian Duma providing for compensation of such as things from the state budget. Among arguments: complaints that it infringes on sovereignty of Russia for a lawsuit against Russian citizen to be decided by foreign courts. Doesn't it infringe on sovereignty of Ukraine for a lawsuit against Ukrainian citizen to be decided by foreign courts?
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Sep 24, 2014 15:27
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Cat Mattress posted:Doesn't it infringe on sovereignty of Ukraine for a lawsuit against Ukrainian citizen to be decided by foreign courts? Maybe it doesn't count when you abduct them?
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Sep 24, 2014 15:32
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Cat Mattress posted:Doesn't it infringe on sovereignty of Ukraine for a lawsuit against Ukrainian citizen to be decided by foreign courts?  Only point out hypocrisy if it's coming from the West. Otherwise, papa Putin spank.
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Sep 24, 2014 15:32
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quote:Doesn't it infringe on sovereignty of Ukraine for a lawsuit against Ukrainian citizen to be decided by foreign courts?
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Sep 24, 2014 17:06
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Cliff Racer posted:They didn't want NATO membership prior to this but they sure as hell wanted EU membership, democracy, lower corruption and some form of market economics. As far as I am concerned the west is pretty loving great at exporting democracy and capitalism. And how could it not be when there are so many willing takers... As far as soft power is concerned, sure - "exporting democracy" probably wasn't the best way to put that on my part. Nation-building by force, being subjected to heavy-handed social engineering from other countries, etc, is more what I meant that they probably don't want. OddObserver posted:So yesterday Italy froze some assets (Villas) owned by some Putin buddies/oligarchs/judo partners. Today, someone introduced a law in the Russian Duma providing for compensation of such as things from the state budget. Among arguments: complaints that it infringes on sovereignty of Russia for a lawsuit against Russian citizen to be decided by foreign courts. Yeah, well, you can't blame them for trying, no matter how hypocritical their argument is. But let 'em whine - this is the right way to get Russia to behave as we want it to. Majorian fucked around with this message at 17:33 on Sep 24, 2014 |
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Sep 24, 2014 17:20
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Majorian posted:Yeah, well, you can't blame them for trying, no matter how hypocritical their argument is. But let 'em whine - this is the right way to get Russia to behave as we want it to. Who knows if it's the right way, but... it's what we got.
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Sep 24, 2014 17:47
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Some poll company did a survey of view of Ukrainians on foreign leaders. There was a bit of a surprise. The numbers are favorable/unfavorable: Lukashenko: 62-26 Obama: 54-31 Merkel: 51-32 Putin: 16-75 (last October was 47-40)
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Sep 24, 2014 17:59
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StandardVC10 posted:Who knows if it's the right way, but... it's what we got. Yeah, that's well-put. It's the most helpful thing we can do right now that we're pretty sure won't make the situation dramatically worse in the long-run.
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Sep 24, 2014 18:17
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OddObserver posted:Some poll company did a survey of view of Ukrainians on foreign leaders. There was a bit of a surprise. The numbers are favorable/unfavorable: Lukashenko's done a good job riding the fence, while Obama and Merkel are probably frustrating people by how little they've done to resolve the crisis. 16% for Putin has to be his floor, though, I can't imagine he could do more to piss off Ukrainians short of dropping the bomb on Kyiv.
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Sep 24, 2014 19:56
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As for your sweet dreams about collapsing economy of this country. I think these articles should be interesting. http://itar-tass.com/ekonomika/1459349 https://www.perpetualassets.com/news/2014/09/22/oil-being-sold-in-rubles-insider-update-from-jim-willie/ I do not completely agree with Jim's forecast, but... Tzeentch knows.
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Sep 24, 2014 20:09
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TeodorMorozov posted:As for your sweet dreams about collapsing economy of this country. You should drop Mighty Peon a PM, he can give you some hints to improve your cheerleading
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Sep 24, 2014 20:21
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Just been sent this short video, comparing the Paris Match Buk photo to the image of the Buk sighted in a convoy in Russia heading to the Ukrainian border a few weeks before the downing of MH17. Watch the markings and the damage on the rail above the tracks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9pqjzGyYxw
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Sep 24, 2014 20:48
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Why is Lavrov at the Big Dog UNSC meeting instead of Putin?
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Sep 24, 2014 21:26
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Brown Moses posted:Just been sent this short video, comparing the Paris Match Buk photo to the image of the Buk sighted in a convoy in Russia heading to the Ukrainian border a few weeks before the downing of MH17. Watch the markings and the damage on the rail above the tracks
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Sep 24, 2014 21:37
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vegaji posted:I'm 99% sure that I've seen this connection made before by someone on Twitter, but I can't remember when/where. May want to search through some of the @vpkivimaki, @djp3tros, @galandecZP, @Conflict_Report, et al timelines to double-check. Unless you're just re-presenting info with the fading video (which is very cool looking) It's something we've been working on for a few weeks, so those guys have been discussing it on Twitter, but this is the best way to show it's a perfect match.
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Sep 24, 2014 21:40
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Brown Moses posted:It's something we've been working on for a few weeks, so those guys have been discussing it on Twitter, but this is the best way to show it's a perfect match.
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Sep 24, 2014 21:43
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vegaji posted:Gotcha, makes sense. I'd love to see an updated video compilation with all your new evidence you're digging up through Bellingcat, working from the previous one with the Buk route+videos/photos in Snizhne/Torez/etc I've actually recorded a piece for my Kickstarter rewards that cover the entire thing, but the posts are all linked here. I'll also be lecturing at King's College War Studies department about this on Friday as well.
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Sep 24, 2014 21:49
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The next country that may be facing export bans from Russia is within the Customs Union - Belarus. http://www.interfax.by/news/belarus/1167521 quote:Rosselhoznadzor does not preclude the introduction of the ban on meat and dairy products from Belarus in connection with the detection of hazardous substances in the production of a number of enterprises. In a poll on moral authority, Putin polled the highest out of famous people in Russia. You can see that and the results of other questions on moral authority here. http://fom.ru/TSennosti/11719
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Sep 24, 2014 21:49
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^^^^^^ That poll gotta sting for Patriarch Kirill. The Ukrainian PM has been speaking and answering questions at the council of foreign relations. @CFR_org has some extracts. (I think he is planning to speak at UN sometime soon, not sure of exact day). OddObserver fucked around with this message at 22:19 on Sep 24, 2014 |
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Sep 24, 2014 22:14
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Something I almost missed. Polish miners blocked a coal train from Kaliningrad. http://www.france24.com/en/20140924..._source=twitter 50 humanitarian aid trucks were destroyed by a huge explosion near Donetsk.  https://twitter.com/vilnezheettya/status/514793488547078144 Russia is preparing a fourth humanitarian aid convoy into Ukraine. http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-219-nadezhda-savchenko-moved-from-voronezh-to-moscow/#4399
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Sep 25, 2014 00:57
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Cheatum the Evil Midget posted:It's just all these people talking about invading russia and forcing them to learn proper democracy and non-corruption need to realize we kinda need to do ukraine first. There's no particular order in trying to solve the corruption issues in Ukraine or Russia (though if there were, I think the country with the president-for-life, obviously rigged elections and utter absence of a free press should probably be first). Cheatum the Evil Midget posted:Other consideration is the West may find Ukraine to be a less than stable or democratic partner, so geopolitically speaking you have to ask why you want to go the hilt against a great power to gain a corrupt burden that may be about to experience a far-right insurrection, particularly given the EU is already struggling dealing with members on its periphery and the US has its own Middle East and China woes. What if "the West" just actually wants what's best for the people of Ukraine (and Russia)? Also, in terms of a "burden", the only one I can think you mean is EU membership, for which there are pretty stringent rules regarding corruption. The carrot of EU membership can even be a tool to get Eastern European nations to clean up their corruption problems internally.
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Sep 25, 2014 01:01
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