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Some sad news: Jaak Joala, an Estonian singer and a 70ies superstar in the USSR, passed away on Thursday at age of 64. Even though he was long retired and rarely performed in the 2000's, he still remained one of the most famous Estonians in the former USSR; at the time he had a number of LP's and tours, and starred in several musical movies. His style was quite 70ies, but could be compared to Billy Joel or Cliff Richard, whom he covered among other things. Давай поиграем в любовь https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qtg07AVYyEo an original I think, from one of his first bands, which was soon banned https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uslhWgg3PfA cover of Billy Joel's All For Leyna https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qtg07AVYyEo pigdog fucked around with this message at 19:01 on Sep 26, 2014 |
# ? Sep 26, 2014 18:56 |
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# ? Jun 4, 2024 15:12 |
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Ardennes posted:The separatists are still taking territory, just at a much slower pace, at least according to reports from UAlivemap. Yes, because the Ukrainian army has been ordered to pull out of those regions and create a buffer zone. What do you think Russia would do if Ukrainian army starts rolling around reconquering areas? What do you think Europe would do if Ukraine appears to be the aggressor all of the sudden?
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# ? Sep 26, 2014 19:16 |
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Sergiu64 posted:Yes, because the Ukrainian army has been ordered to pull out of those regions and create a buffer zone. What do you think Russia would do if Ukrainian army starts rolling around reconquering areas? What do you think Europe would do if Ukraine appears to be the aggressor all of the sudden? Throwing out invaders is purely defensive. Everyone would see it like that except warmongering, invading Russia. The problem is that Russia is willing to spill blood wantonly. Even right now they are spilling it without remorse.
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# ? Sep 26, 2014 19:21 |
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Sure, but now basically they're trying to normalize the ceasefire and occupation as the status quo to make any attempt to expel them look like aggression. Just like if Ukraine tried to retake Crimea now.
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# ? Sep 26, 2014 19:28 |
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But yes, at the moment it is unadvisable for Ukraine to defend itself too strongly. It all depends on how murderous and bloodthirsty Putin is. Maybe he is ready to kill every single Ukrainian who dares to defend themselves against Russian aggression. Maybe he is willing to murder every single Ukrainian for the glory of Russia. Maybe he is only willing to prevent Ukraine from retaking the annexed territories. Which one is it? Who knows? I don't think anyone right now knows what Putin is willing to do.
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# ? Sep 26, 2014 19:40 |
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Lucy Heartfilia posted:But yes, at the moment it is unadvisable for Ukraine to defend itself too strongly. It all depends on how murderous and bloodthirsty Putin is. Last page in the clancychat thread, I posted my raw notes from a policy shop discussion. We know what Putin is willing to do. Only question is when he'll do it, and how many will die in the process.
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# ? Sep 26, 2014 19:48 |
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I am kind of wondering if Putin isn't playing at Edit: word substitution oops OddObserver fucked around with this message at 20:38 on Sep 26, 2014 |
# ? Sep 26, 2014 20:29 |
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My Imaginary GF posted:Last page in the clancychat thread, I posted my raw notes from a policy shop discussion. We know what Putin is willing to do. Only question is when he'll do it, and how many will die in the process. I read it and... I didn't like what I read.
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# ? Sep 26, 2014 20:35 |
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I don't think Putin cares at all about legitimacy of anything, and is in fact pretty certain the concept doesn't exist. The Russian dialogue on this and other issues comes down to competing powers, spheres, etc because the concept of self-determination is to them just a laughable smokescreen used by the west.
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# ? Sep 26, 2014 20:36 |
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Lucy Heartfilia posted:I read it and... I didn't like what I read. Reality has this unpleasant bias to it, doesn't it? There are no good options, and whatever action is taken in Ukraine, will impact action in the ME. We'll have to live with a Russian Federation from Crimea to Transnistria, whether we like it or not. The alternatives are worse.
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# ? Sep 26, 2014 20:49 |
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I think it is more likely at this point Putin will go back to using economic coercion and internal division to control Ukraine. Taking more Ukrainian territory would be far more messy than just putting the screws to them slowly over years, and I suspect Putin is planning on the IMF to help him out in that regard. Ukraine really has no where to go at this point, and the balance sheet has reached the point that Poroshenko will likely have to further relent. Ukraine's credit rating is just above default, 2 year bonds have a year of 18% and currency reserves are running out. The economy has taken a massive hit and its shrinking while the currency has rapidly devalued. Both Putin and Poroshenko know this and I suspect the backroom discussions are more or less about how much autonomy Ukraine is going to be able to keep.
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# ? Sep 26, 2014 21:00 |
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I suppose if it'll take the Russian army committing openly to roll up the Ukrainian coast then we'll know it when it happens. Ceding Donetsk and Luhansk to separatists is wretched but if they can't break out of that containment without regular military backing that'll limit Russia somewhat. If they were totally okay with just conquering half of Ukraine with the Russian army they'd have done it already, we'll have to wait to find out if land-locking Ukraine and connecting Crimea overland is worth that escalation or not. Again it does seem interesting to note that a Ukraine that's had its most pro-Russian areas conquered by Russia is guaranteed to be more politically unified and anti-Russian. It might not amount to much if there's complete economic and political chaos in the Ukrainian remnant, but if things ever stabilize down the line (way, way down the line) they'll be a natural ally in the region for Europe and the West. Certainly it's hard to imagine a government elected by a Ukrainian population who's lived through this crisis ever campaigning on a pro-Russian platform again. Dolash fucked around with this message at 21:06 on Sep 26, 2014 |
# ? Sep 26, 2014 21:04 |
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Dolash posted:Again it does seem interesting to note that a Ukraine that's had its most pro-Russian areas conquered by Russia is guaranteed to be more politically unified and anti-Russian. It might not amount to much if there's complete economic and political chaos in the Ukrainian remnant, but if things ever stabilize down the line (way, way down the line) they'll be a natural ally in the region for Europe and the West. Certainly it's hard to imagine a government elected by a Ukrainian population who's lived through this crisis ever campaigning on a pro-Russian platform again. There is already a split between Ukrainian moderates and more radical nationalists at this point. If anything despite being less ethnically Russian, Ukraine is probably even less unified politically that it was in March. Ultimately, the issue is that Putin will make sure that Ukraine is never fully stable or at least free to make that decision. He knows a stable and successful Ukraine will move further West, and he has the ability to keep it destabilized enough not to be worth the effort to them. One big issue for Ukraine too is that IMF loans can be very difficult to get rid of, and the more they accrue, the weaker Ukraine is going to be even if Putin doesn't lift a finger. I wouldn't be surprised if Putin just keeps Ukraine weak enough by providing it some assistance but ultimately Ukraine remains a near-basket case that isn't ready for EU membership and can't formally join NATO.
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# ? Sep 26, 2014 21:22 |
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Ardennes posted:There is already a split between Ukrainian moderates and more radical nationalists at this point. If anything despite being less ethnically Russian, Ukraine is probably even less unified politically that it was in March. But is that a long-term solution? Russia might be able to keep that up for the next few years, but thinking decades or even a generation or two down the line this approach requires Russia to keep permanently under its thumb, and any stumble or loss of power on Russia's part is an opportunity for Ukraine to get out from under. They're breeding resentment that will permeate Ukraine for years to come. Russia doesn't have the USSR's same ability to maintain stalemates and divisions, and even the USSR eventually collapsed from the weight of the empire they were trying to prop up. Putin might score points by pretending they can, but he probably won't be around when the long-term consequences come home to roost. Edit - this is kind of wandering into Clancychat, I guess. To try and keep this relevant to Ukraine's specific situation it's interesting to think about what new border will stabilize between Ukraine and Russia and how long it will take for Ukraine to normalize again.
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# ? Sep 26, 2014 21:37 |
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Sergiu64 posted:Yes, because the Ukrainian army has been ordered to pull out of those regions and create a buffer zone. What do you think Russia would do if Ukrainian army starts rolling around reconquering areas? What do you think Europe would do if Ukraine appears to be the aggressor all of the sudden? Russia will do the same thing it just did; i. e. another larger scale movement of its own troops until the
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# ? Sep 26, 2014 23:07 |
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The only source I'm finding for this is Moscow Times. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-fights-to-keep-veto-right-in-un-security-council/507926.html
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 08:15 |
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StandardVC10 posted:Russia will do the same thing it just did; i. e. another larger scale movement of its own troops until the You forget that America is ramping up its direct military aid. We're effectively running the Ukranian army now; they are under NATO command. And we're fighting the Russians like a war. I'd expect the lethal aid to begin showing in videos soon. We've sent a few shipments initially of surplus Russian equipment; we underestimated Ukranian corruption in the face of existential threat, so now we verify every step of the supply chain logistics.
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 08:25 |
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My Imaginary GF posted:We're effectively running the Ukranian army now; they are under NATO command. Woah, what? Citation needed.
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 08:33 |
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Freezer posted:Woah, what? Citation needed. What do you envision 'force coordination' and 'intelligence sharing' to entail? That is the only way I know to interpret. Or, for a less hyperbolic comparison, Ukranian forces are being managed by the same floor as FSA and Peshmerga. \/\/\/\/ You can't out-intelligence Americans. We won't show you everything we have; we will point you in the direction of where to find documents we want you to have. My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 08:57 on Sep 27, 2014 |
# ? Sep 27, 2014 08:49 |
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This livejournal blogger claims hackers got into Vladimir Zhirinovsky's Liberal Democratic Party's servers and found a database of Russians fighting in Donbass. http://zloy-odessit.livejournal.com/808266.html quote:As it became known, some unknown persons had "cracked" the central server pro-Kremlin party the Liberal Democratic Party, and there was a database on terrorists DNR! The database contained some very interesting documents fully describing the personal data and functions of the most notorious terrorists of DNR, as well as documents, orders and correspondence with the Russian masters of the DNI and not known to the public.
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 08:55 |
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Very interesting. But will this convince anyone to change their view? I don't think so. Will there be other consequences from this?
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 08:58 |
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Lucy Heartfilia posted:Very interesting. But will this convince anyone to change their view? I don't think so. Of course there will be no consequences for this. But if this is accurate then the Ukrainians have a list of names.
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 09:00 |
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:Of course there will be no consequences for this. But if this is accurate then the Ukrainians have a list of names. Thats all that matters. We want the Ukranian population to be willing to endure the hardships they have coming when their economy undergoes some system shocks. All the easier when the Ukranians know clearly what they're fighting for and whom they're fighting against. Wanna read that PUSSY RIOT.DOC
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 09:05 |
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MIGF, I can't decide if your faux-State-Department G-Man routine is tiresome or funny, it swings from one to the other from post to post. Regardless, I think there is an interesting habit for people on both sides to over-represent cooperation between sides with common interests in geopolitics. There are people who see CIA and FSB behind everything. "What do you envision 'force coordination' and 'intelligence sharing' to entail? That is the only way I know to interpret." It's this mindset exactly that I'm talking about. What if those things mean exactly what they sound like? As in, the U.S. is emailing the Ukrainian army satellite photos of troop movements and they're keeping each other appraised of forces they have in and around the area so America'll get a heads-up if Ukraine's ever on the point of collapse and they have to worry about Russians getting too close for comfort. It doesn't have to mean there's literally CIA handlers sitting in dark offices in Langley phoning Ukrainian generals to give them their marching orders. Ukraine is already willing to do things that align with American interests of their own volition, America does not need to exert direct influence to make Ukraine fight Russia and try to stay out of their sphere. I'm sure there's agents at work and lots of back-room dealing and conversations but I doubt the Ukrainian government and army is the NATO shadow-tendril Russia claims they are. When a state takes direct control it looks like how Russia's been sock-puppeting the "separatists" in Eastern Ukraine - clumsy and obvious, because a superpower makes their own reality and calling them out or proving their hypocrisy doesn't actually affect them.
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 09:21 |
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Remember the poor MP thrown in the trash a couple of weeks ago? Take a look at what happened to this Party of Regions MP when he tried to register as a candidate for the upcoming election. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KSd6uSdqTA quote:Covered in red paint and sitting in the middle of a pile of rubbish on a cold pavement in the darkness, Viktor Pylypyshyn endured insults instead of celebrating his registration as a candidate for parliamentary election as he intended on the night of Sept. 25. It's understandable people are angry, but this isn't the way to handle it. Now that Poroshenko signed the Lustration law we'll see how many of these people responsible for the law that allowed Yanukovych to kill people at Maidan make it onto a ballot.
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 09:29 |
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My Imaginary GF posted:Last page in the clancychat thread, I posted my raw notes from a policy shop discussion. We know what Putin is willing to do. Only question is when he'll do it, and how many will die in the process. I couldn't find these notes in that thread. Care to pass me a link? Well, I found them now. What those people did to that guy covered in paint is not cool. It's understandable and logical that they are angry after such draconian laws were passed, and they feel that someone should pay, but I think what they've done is taking things a bit too far. Fabulous Knight fucked around with this message at 09:44 on Sep 27, 2014 |
# ? Sep 27, 2014 09:40 |
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Fabulous Knight posted:I couldn't find these notes in that thread. Care to pass me a link? http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3664899
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 09:43 |
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In Estonia, the officials have decided to take a strong stance against any border incursions by Russians: Border Violators Former KGB Officers, Says Russian Website - previously in such minor cases the perpetrators would have just been fined, but now they were arrested and face up to a year in prison. Another source (in Finnish) Meanwhile Eston Kohver's case seems to be going nowhere fast.
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 11:02 |
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A tweet with an image of a new Russian sniper rifle round. https://twitter.com/ukr_shuster/status/515834946284707840
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 14:19 |
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:It's understandable people are angry, but this isn't the way to handle it. Now that Poroshenko signed the Lustration law we'll see how many of these people responsible for the law that allowed Yanukovych to kill people at Maidan make it onto a ballot. I am not mistaken, the law doesn't restrict people from elected positions. Probably won't have passed the Rada otherwise. But yeah, that's what 5% trust (IIRC) in Judiciary looks like... when it doesn't get worse. Poroshenko seems aware of the problem in words, but not enough to notice that the public is already raising corruption question about one of his Prosecutor General's top aides...
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 14:38 |
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Rosselhoznadzor, the Russian authority that monitors food imports from other Customs Union countries, and tasked to keep EU, American, Canadian, Swiss, Norwegian, Australian, Japanese, etc. products from entering Russia has requested the Ministry of Agriculture in Belarus to be given the authority to monitor food imports into Belarus, because food exports from Belarus into Russia according to them contain food from currently banned countries. http://belapan.by/archive/2014/09/27/729623/ quote:Russia from August 7 year limited imports of certain goods from countries that have imposed sanctions against it - the United States, the EU member states, Canada, Australia and Norway.
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 17:57 |
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:A tweet with an image of a new Russian sniper rifle round. So, how can you tell it's 12.7x55mm used by one sniper rifle or 12.7x108mm used by all sorts of heavy machineguns?
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 18:09 |
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Russians shelling from a residential area in Donetsk. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eY4DgqM72xA This Donestk Rebel killed in action today is actually from Arhangelsk, Russia. https://twitter.com/AlexPanchenko2/status/515863492373790721 HUGE PUBES A PLUS fucked around with this message at 18:28 on Sep 27, 2014 |
# ? Sep 27, 2014 18:17 |
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:Russians shelling from a residential area in Donetsk. What type of rockets were squeeling in the beginning?
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 18:29 |
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Pyromancer posted:So, how can you tell it's 12.7x55mm used by one sniper rifle or 12.7x108mm used by all sorts of heavy machineguns? It depends. The top middle cartridge is the 12.7x108mm with the newer special applications 12.7x55mm rounds below it and on the left side of the picture. Really, judging from the banded grooves, I'd just say it's a heavy machinegun bullet than a special application rifle.
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 22:34 |
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:This livejournal blogger claims hackers got into Vladimir Zhirinovsky's Liberal Democratic Party's servers and found a database of Russians fighting in Donbass.
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 23:07 |
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vegaji posted:I've been going through these all afternoon and I can't believe how insane a few of these documents are, especially the Buratino ones. But 99% of it is bureaucratic junk. Wanna post translations for the rest of us? My guys up in Toronto for a Ukranian conference this weekend, otherwise I'd ask him.
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 23:09 |
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Aric Toler has been looking at these on Twitter, this is goodquote:Okay, now this is just bizarre. This document details an information campaign that talks about the Darth Vader candidate in Ukraine.
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# ? Sep 27, 2014 23:10 |
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I was curious what they found. I know the passport photos got everyone really excited.
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# ? Sep 28, 2014 00:00 |
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# ? Jun 4, 2024 15:12 |
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My Imaginary GF posted:Wanna post translations for the rest of us? My guys up in Toronto for a Ukranian conference this weekend, otherwise I'd ask him. I had to read through a few of those over and over because it was so insane. Someone proposed putting hundreds of thousands of rubles into a plan to make a political campaign like the Darth Vader one, but instead make a "good" candidate (as opposed to the dark side) with Buratino, the Tolstoy version of Pinocchio. They were going to make it funny, run lots of TV ads, have flash mobs, get it viral on social media, etc. Then, they were going to have someone legally change their name to Buratino to collect these votes with some minor party and get elected to parliament. Then, this new (legally named) Buratino would side with the separatists. It's just insane. Buratino Wiki page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buratino bearic fucked around with this message at 02:07 on Sep 28, 2014 |
# ? Sep 28, 2014 02:02 |