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Knyteguy
Jul 6, 2005

YES to love
NO to shirts


Toilet Rascal

NancyPants posted:

This could be a stupid question, but...is $400mil a lot for a whole company over the year? The only thing I have to go on really is the profit for the store I work in, which last I knew was around $2.5mil.

I started skimming after the one from the guy who lost his mother's savings by defrauding her. That one made me sick to my stomach.

E: also that idiot who thinks roulette has a pattern. Maybe he'll buy this bridge from me?

Technically after long periods of time the bearings on roulette wheels will start to wear causing certain numbers do come up far more often. Some people have made a lot of money knowing this.

http://www.pokerplayer365.com/uncategorized-drafts/masterclass-3/

However I'm pretty certain that only applies to earlier roulette wheels, meaning that person is still an idiot.

That page also goes into the whole "pattern" thing more too (disproving it of course) for anyone interested.


How could people possibly think putting their life savings into a single stock was a good idea? Index funds might not be common knowledge, but diversification surely is.

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BigDave
Jul 14, 2009

Taste the High Country

Rick Rickshaw posted:

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-10-06/apple-sapphire-supplier-breaks


So Apple loans GTAT half a billion dollars. Contract of loan states Apple can call them on this debt at any point given unpublicized circumstances. Apple calls. GTAT declares bankruptcy. Apple buys GTAT at a bargain price, apparently:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2545295-apple-announcing-apples-newest-acquisition-gt-advanced-technologies

Isint that illegal? Pretty sure intentionally devaluing a company to purchase it at a low cost is fraud.

antiga
Jan 16, 2013

That is a heartbreaking read but honestly post-Enron I don't understand how a person goes all in on one stock. Greed is all I can come up with.

Knyteguy
Jul 6, 2005

YES to love
NO to shirts


Toilet Rascal

antiga posted:

That is a heartbreaking read but honestly post-Enron I don't understand how a person goes all in on one stock. Greed is all I can come up with.

Social proof as well. If so many others on a "knowledgeable" investing forum are doing it, it must be a good idea. Tough lesson to learn I imagine. Sad.

Giant Isopod
Jan 30, 2010

Bathynomus giganteus
Yams Fan
A lot of the posters in that thread are saying that there will be lawsuits and that this was definitely fraud because the company (especially 'TG' - I assume that's Thomas Gutierrez, the CEO?) didn't warn the investors of known problems. Is there any truth to that, or are these just despair fueled ravings?

Edit: http://appleinsider.com/articles/14...-6-announcement seems to imply there might be something to it, but I have no idea what "Faces Scrutiny" means in real world terms

Pompous Rhombus
Mar 11, 2007

Giant Isopod posted:

A lot of the posters in that thread are saying that there will be lawsuits and that this was definitely fraud because the company (especially 'TG' - I assume that's Thomas Gutierrez, the CEO?) didn't warn the investors of known problems. Is there any truth to that, or are these just despair fueled ravings?

Edit: http://appleinsider.com/articles/14...-6-announcement seems to imply there might be something to it, but I have no idea what "Faces Scrutiny" means in real world terms

I was just about to link that article you just did (about ol' Geets dumping a bunch of stock before the iPhone 6 announcement.)

Qwertycoatl
Dec 31, 2008

Giant Isopod posted:

A lot of the posters in that thread are saying that there will be lawsuits and that this was definitely fraud because the company (especially 'TG' - I assume that's Thomas Gutierrez, the CEO?) didn't warn the investors of known problems. Is there any truth to that, or are these just despair fueled ravings.

Regardless of whether there will be lawsuits, the money is gone. They're not getting it back.

CitizenKain
May 27, 2001

That was Gary Cooper, asshole.

Nap Ghost

BigDave posted:

Isint that illegal? Pretty sure intentionally devaluing a company to purchase it at a low cost is fraud.

Depends on what the reason is that Apple called their loan. My guess is that GT A couldn't meet milestones and Apple pulled their money. But I bet Apple really wants those patents for the next Iphone and the watch so they can used at a company that can actually produce the numbers they want.

Omne
Jul 12, 2003

Orangedude Forever

Pompous Rhombus posted:

I was just about to link that article you just did (about ol' Geets dumping a bunch of stock before the iPhone 6 announcement.)

According to the MacRumors article I read on it, the Sept. 8 sale of shares was part of a routine sale that was initiated in March, so it actually has nothing to do with this. Link: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1325214/000148024814000162/xslF345X03/edgar.xml

antiga
Jan 16, 2013

Even if there is a very successful lawsuit (unlikely) those guys will only recover a tiny fraction of their investments.

MAKE NO BABBYS
Jan 28, 2010
Tell me if I'm parsing this correctly; so these people invested their entire life savings into the company that provides the sapphire used in iphones and iwatches because OMG APPLE!!!! and then Apple didn't use sapphire in the Iphone 6 because the company couldnt provide enough and now they are declaring bankruptcy, there may or may not have been some sketchy claims about financial solvency of the company from the CEO a few months ago.

Am I correct?

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

MAKE NO BABBYS posted:

Tell me if I'm parsing this correctly; so these people invested their entire life savings into the company that provides the sapphire used in iphones and iwatches because OMG APPLE!!!! and then Apple didn't use sapphire in the Iphone 6 because the company couldnt provide enough and now they are declaring bankruptcy, there may or may not have been some sketchy claims about financial solvency of the company from the CEO a few months ago.

Am I correct?

Basically, yes.

There's also the CEO claiming he'd have 400 millions cash on hand (not profit, cash) at the end of the year, which is not a sign of a well managed company. Helloooo opportunity cost.

(Pay down debts, invest in capital, pay out dividends, some loving thing - why would you keep 400 mills on hand? Unless that's like 3 months of operating capital, in which case lol)

KYOON GRIFFEY JR
Apr 12, 2010



Runner-up, TRP Sack Race 2021/22

MAKE NO BABBYS posted:

Tell me if I'm parsing this correctly; so these people invested their entire life savings into the company that provides the sapphire used in iphones and iwatches because OMG APPLE!!!! and then Apple didn't use sapphire in the Iphone 6 because the company couldnt provide enough and now they are declaring bankruptcy, there may or may not have been some sketchy claims about financial solvency of the company from the CEO a few months ago.

Am I correct?

Yes, basically. Don't forget that A) the terms of Apple's prepayment were brutal for GTAT and B) GTAT had identified repayment risk explicitly, so it's not like investors can say that GTAT concealed repayment risk of default.

Old Fart
Jul 25, 2013
Not to derail from this fascinating implosion, but if you think roulette players are bad about searching for patterns, spend some time at a crowded baccarat table. The game is nothing more than effectively flipping coins, with a 5% commission.

Prince Turveydrop
May 12, 2001

He was a veray parfit gentil knight.
I used to work with someone whose family would record the state lotto numbers every day. They'd try to figure out what number hadn't popped out of the lottery machines the longest and play that.

They also had a dream book and would play the numbers associated with that dream's themes. This is apparently not a new idea.

canyoneer
Sep 13, 2005


I only have canyoneyes for you
Whoa what a pack of dummies. That is a forum of the market "noise" referred to in finance literature.

MrKatharsis
Nov 29, 2003

feel the bern
Japanese companies usually keep hefty balances. It's not that unusual.

The news articles about this say Apple didn't call the loan and they were surprised by the filing as well. Good laughs though.

Inverse Icarus
Dec 4, 2003

I run SyncRPG, and produce original, digital content for the Pathfinder RPG, designed from the ground up to be played online.
I like to consider myself a good person, but I get some serious schadenfreude when I hear about idiots losing their money in stupid ways.

Especially if they post about how smart they're being right before they lose it all.

EugeneJ
Feb 5, 2012

by FactsAreUseless

Chaucer posted:

I used to work with someone whose family would record the state lotto numbers every day. They'd try to figure out what number hadn't popped out of the lottery machines the longest and play that.

They also had a dream book and would play the numbers associated with that dream's themes. This is apparently not a new idea.

A guy in our neighborhood had a 3-ring binder filled with lottery results and he would spend 6 hours/day with it on the hood of his car trying to find "patterns".

Devian666
Aug 20, 2008

Take some advice Chris.

Fun Shoe

EugeneJ posted:

A guy in our neighborhood had a 3-ring binder filled with lottery results and he would spend 6 hours/day with it on the hood of his car trying to find "patterns".

If only that time and energy was focused into doing work to make money. Sure this whole working productively thing is boring but if gives you a higher chance of ending up rich than wasting money on gambling.

Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Dec 22, 2005

GET LOSE, YOU CAN'T COMPARE WITH MY POWERS

Devian666 posted:

If only that time and energy was focused into doing work to make money. Sure this whole working productively thing is boring but if gives you a higher chance of ending up rich than wasting money on gambling.

Maybe he could have done it with stock prices or something instead and actually gone somewhere with it(probably not).

melon cat
Jan 21, 2010

Nap Ghost
There are people in that same GTAT thread recommending that the other forumgoers short specific stocks. Why, oh why, would you recommend such a thing to someone who just lost their shirt in the market? :psyduck:

"Why restrict yourself to investments that hit zero when you can have investments whose losses can be indefinite??"

VideoTapir
Oct 18, 2005

He'll tire eventually.

melon cat posted:

There are people in that same GTAT thread recommending that the other forumgoers short specific stocks. Why, oh why, would you recommend such a thing to someone who just lost their shirt in the market? :psyduck:

"Why restrict yourself to investments that hit zero when you can have investments whose losses can be indefinite??"

If someone is already doomed to bankruptcy, might as well double down while you can still get credit.

baquerd
Jul 2, 2007

by FactsAreUseless

VideoTapir posted:

If someone is already doomed to bankruptcy, might as well double down while you can still get credit.

There are provisions for obtaining debt in bad faith, but I think trying to recoup investment losses by betting bigger than ever and as hard as you can wouldn't fall under this. Makes sense to me - once you're done anyway, keep hitting that doubling cube and maybe you'll win.

In fact, as long as there's no upper limit, you will in fact win by doubling your bet every time you lose. It's a common scam, where sites will offer day traders ultra short term bets on the direction a particular symbol moves. The strategy can work for a while until you hit the site's maximum bid price and lose.

Ron Paul Atreides
Apr 19, 2012

Uyghurs situation in Xinjiang? Just a police action, do not fret. Not ongoing genocide like in EVIL Canada.

I am definitely not a tankie.
This thread makes me both feel real good and real bad.

Good because I always find people in worse situations than me due to their inability to really understand risks

Bad cause I am mid twenties and no retirement savings or much savings of any kind, not because I don't care but still finishing up college after a few wasted years in a lovely Major

Renegret
May 26, 2007

THANK YOU FOR CALLING HELP DOG, INC.

YOUR POSITION IN THE QUEUE IS *pbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbt*


Cat Army Sworn Enemy

pig slut lisa posted:

The roulette thing was my reworking of the dumb post that Smugly Dismissed quoted about picking hot stocks. Nobody actually said that thing about roulette.

That said, it's absolutely the case that (a) dumping all your money into one hot stock is pretty equivalent to betting it all on black, and (b) if you go to Las Vegas you will absolutely see people recording roulette outcomes in little notebooks where they store thousands of events and try to find patterns. :eng99:

The problem with this thread is that it was completely believable that someone would think that way.

Nail Rat
Dec 29, 2000

You maniacs! You blew it up! God damn you! God damn you all to hell!!

Ron Paul Atreides posted:

This thread makes me both feel real good and real bad.

Good because I always find people in worse situations than me due to their inability to really understand risks

Bad cause I am mid twenties and no retirement savings or much savings of any kind, not because I don't care but still finishing up college after a few wasted years in a lovely Major

If you get a decent job at like 28 and live like a college student, you can still easily retire by like 50 with proper budgeting, without even going hardcore MMM style.

canyoneer
Sep 13, 2005


I only have canyoneyes for you

Nail Rat posted:

If you get a decent job at like 28 and live like a college student, you can still easily retire by like 50 with proper budgeting, without even going hardcore MMM style.

I agree, if by "live like a college student" you mean don't get married, don't have kids, but split a 3 bedroom house near campus with 4 other people.

Actually, you could probably retire at 40 like that.

DEMAG
Aug 14, 2003

You're it.

antiga posted:

That is a heartbreaking read but honestly post-Enron I don't understand how a person goes all in on one stock. Greed is all I can come up with.

That greed will probably drive some of those idiots to throw what they have left in a stock like LAKE. Because Alex Jones says Ebola is gonna kill us all. Thanks Obama!

Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Dec 22, 2005

GET LOSE, YOU CAN'T COMPARE WITH MY POWERS
Why wouldn't you be able to get married?

They said "without going hardcore MMM style" and he lives much better than that and has a kid.

Jeffrey of YOSPOS fucked around with this message at 17:16 on Oct 9, 2014

daggerdragon
Jan 22, 2006

My titan engine can kick your titan engine's ass.

Jeffrey posted:

Why wouldn't you be able to get married?

Because it costs $40 to get married and that's simply out of the budget if you want to retire by 35! MUST SAVE EVERY LAST PENNY.

FCKGW
May 21, 2006

Living like a college student sucks rear end that's why it's called "living like a college student" and not just "living".

cowofwar
Jul 30, 2002

by Athanatos
Purposely living in squalor when you're young so that you can be rich when you're old is bad with money. I'd prefer to live life (which costs money) when I'm young and have less disposable income when I'm old and physically useless.

The point of retirement savings is to maintain your current lifestyle, not penny-pinch in the hopes of securing a better lifestyle.

Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Dec 22, 2005

GET LOSE, YOU CAN'T COMPARE WITH MY POWERS

cowofwar posted:

Purposely living in squalor when you're young so that you can be rich when you're old is bad with money. I'd prefer to live life (which costs money) when I'm young and have less disposable income when I'm old and physically useless.

The point of retirement savings is to maintain your current lifestyle, not penny-pinch in the hopes of securing a better lifestyle.

It's a lot easier to "live life" (which doesn't imply spending money to me but okay) when you aren't a wage slave living under the constant threat of losing your job and being genuinely harmed by it. I dunno I probably shouldn't go down this derail but MMM doesn't live in anything close to squalor.

Nail Rat
Dec 29, 2000

You maniacs! You blew it up! God damn you! God damn you all to hell!!

canyoneer posted:

I agree, if by "live like a college student" you mean don't get married, don't have kids, but split a 3 bedroom house near campus with 4 other people.

Actually, you could probably retire at 40 like that.

Bullshit, if you're making 80-100k and you live off of 35k (easily doable without living "in squalor" you would have no problem at all retiring in about 20 years. Yes kids, etc. will raise those costs but then again you should be getting raises in that time too.

quote:

The point of retirement savings is to maintain your current lifestyle, not penny-pinch in the hopes of securing a better lifestyle.

The point of retirement savings is to one day not need to work. Whatever that means is up to you as an individual. That is the only universal definition. Learning to not automatically increase your expenses to your raises isn't necessarily "penny-pinching."

Personally, while I'll be working until about 55 or so, every year I have to get up early to go do what someone else wants me to do is awful. Freedom from that while still maintaining a fairly comfortable life would be the greatest thing ever.

The dude above doesn't need to live on rice and beans. I was only saying that if he controls his lifestyle inflation, he can still retire comfortably and fairly early. Mid-20s is plenty of time to start.

Nail Rat fucked around with this message at 17:55 on Oct 9, 2014

Giant Isopod
Jan 30, 2010

Bathynomus giganteus
Yams Fan

cowofwar posted:

Purposely living in squalor when you're young so that you can be rich when you're old is bad with money. I'd prefer to live life (which costs money) when I'm young and have less disposable income when I'm old and physically useless.


That's kinda of a false dichotomy though. The amount of austerity now required to retire early is a sliding target based on your current income.

That's what can make this thread so frustratingly derailable too: whether a financial decision is an acceptable luxury is mostly a matter of scale and anything between "completely sound" and "sight unseen secondhand yacht on credit" is argument fodder.

EugeneJ
Feb 5, 2012

by FactsAreUseless
Once you get a certain amount of money, your lifestyle becomes a dickwaving contest that's hard to remove yourself from.

The rich people in my family could easily retire today at 40 or 50, but keeping up with the Joneses does not allow that.

Telling them to stop paying $50,000/year for a country club membership or that their yearly $30,000 home re-decorating isn't necessary is like telling a baby they can't have candy.

Spermy Smurf
Jul 2, 2004

Nail Rat posted:

Bullshit, if you're making 80-100k and you live off of 35k (easily doable without living "in squalor" you would have no problem at all retiring in about 20 years. Yes kids, etc. will raise those costs but then again you should be getting raises in that time too.


Who the gently caress makes 80-100k straight out of college? A very, very small percentage of all grads I would guess...

Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Dec 22, 2005

GET LOSE, YOU CAN'T COMPARE WITH MY POWERS

Spermy Smurf posted:

Who the gently caress makes 80-100k straight out of college? A very, very small percentage of all grads I would guess...

To be fair the conversation started about someone who is 28, though that's pretty rare too. I'd wager that poster talks to lots of CS majors. :ssh:

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the littlest prince
Sep 23, 2006


EugeneJ posted:

$50,000/year for a country club membership

Wow. I had no idea this was so expensive. I guess the number of members at each is typically pretty low though, isn't it.

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