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Sedan Chair posted:Instead of a campaign of targeted elimination, how interesting. It's almost like they were in the United States rather then rural Yemen, funny that.
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Oct 9, 2014 05:02
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Targeted killing conversation has gotten really retarded lately
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Oct 9, 2014 05:07
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SedanChair posted:We've also never gone to war against the KKK, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Hayes_Pond
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Oct 9, 2014 09:34
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Miscellaneous Tribes: tougher on terror than the United States of America PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 10:23 on Oct 9, 2014 |
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Oct 9, 2014 10:13
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Volkerball posted:Statue of Ataturk. Not getting the impression that this is going to de-escalate any time soon. Good job you did there fighting for Kobane, angry gangly kurdish youth. Guess statues dont fight back.
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Oct 9, 2014 10:18
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Zengi posted:Good job you did there fighting for Kobane, angry gangly kurdish youth. Guess statues dont fight back. I guess you could say it is a parallel to the Ukrainian far-right pulling down Lenin statues.
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Oct 9, 2014 10:36
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IS is controlling one third of Kobani and are making gains while the token air strikes have a limited effect according to Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/09/us-mideast-crisis-idUSKCN0HX0XF20141009
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Oct 9, 2014 12:16
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New Division posted:These folks have been operating under the gun of aerial firepower for nearly decade in the case of some of their commanders. They're not dumb, they do what they can to mitigate the effects of air power. I've seen this argument before but it is extremely incomplete. Rebels in Iraq during the past decade could not operate openly, because of US power. They stuck with guerrilla tactics, and only fought pitched battles in urban areas. IS has captured and held territory, and moves stuff around by convoys. How in the world do they get to Kobani intact? Looking at google maps I can see the roads going into town are nice an straight and free of cover, the land is mostly flat with the occasional hill. The terrain is farmland for the most part. Does IS moves only a few trucks at a time? Do they take circuitous routes through fields? Send decoys? Or is it harder than I think to monitor an area this size, despite US surveillance drones, satellites and local informants?
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Oct 9, 2014 15:53
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Zengi posted:Good job you did there fighting for Kobane, angry gangly kurdish youth. Guess statues dont fight back. Probably because Turkey has the borders locked down(unless you're going to fight for ISIS).
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Oct 9, 2014 15:56
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Count Roland posted:I've seen this argument before but it is extremely incomplete. Rebels in Iraq during the past decade could not operate openly, because of US power. They stuck with guerrilla tactics, and only fought pitched battles in urban areas. It may be simply about of resources the US has to spare versus the territory it needs to cover (Kobane is just one among many) coupled with ISIS experience. It also probably doesn't help the Turks are not cooperating at all which makes airstrikes along its border most likely more difficult. One thing is the US is intentionally budget strapped at the moment, and only is willing to spent so much money on the operation (along with Afghanistan, Yemen and everything else). I wouldn't be surprised if ISIS tactics at avoidance only become more successful in the future with the introduction of the F-35 which is so costly to maintain and fly that the number of stories is going to have to come way down. I mean at a certain point, does it back since to fly out an extremely expensive stealth fighter to knock out a pickup truck with a mortar or heavy machine gun on it? Ardennes fucked around with this message at 16:06 on Oct 9, 2014 |
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Oct 9, 2014 16:02
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Count Roland posted:I've seen this argument before but it is extremely incomplete. Rebels in Iraq during the past decade could not operate openly, because of US power. They stuck with guerrilla tactics, and only fought pitched battles in urban areas. There was a front line with the Kurds that was gradually receding towards Kobane before airstrikes even began in Syria. At the front line, it's very difficult to accurately target without spotters on the ground, so all the equipment they had there that has continually pushed forward has been relatively safe. As far as the convoys, they definitely moved things from A to B during the Iraq War. It's not like they're still cruising to Kobane in 200 truck convoys covered in black flags. I'm sure they're taking losses, but they know how to limit the effectiveness of an air campaign. Case in point, all the reports from Kurds talking about the US hitting empty buildings, and tanks going unnoticed by air support. All that said, it's also pretty clear that the US isn't going after them near Kobane as vigorously as they have in other places, so that helps too.
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Oct 9, 2014 16:03
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quote:All that said, it's also pretty clear that the US isn't going after them near Kobane as vigorously as they have in other places, so that helps too.
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Oct 9, 2014 16:09
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Gmaz posted:Last 2 days has been pretty vigorous more strikes around Kobane than elsewhere combined. Seems more like the last day especially, but yeah, I should have brought that up. Of course, the march to Kobane has been going on for over a month, and for almost all of it, the US weren't very interested.
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Oct 9, 2014 16:11
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Volkerball posted:Seems more like the last day especially, but yeah, I should have brought that up. Of course, the march to Kobane has been going on for over a month, and for almost all of it, the US weren't very interested. Ultimately, it wasn't considered a priority until it was pretty much too late and I suspect part of it is simply because Syrian Kurds are considerable far more expendable than Iraqi Kurds. Hell, even in Iraq, it took until Erbil was under artillery fire for the airstrikes to start.
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Oct 9, 2014 16:15
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Ardennes posted:Ultimately, it wasn't considered a priority until it was pretty much too late and I suspect part of it is simply because Syrian Kurds are considerable far more expendable than Iraqi Kurds. Hell, even in Iraq, it took until Erbil was under artillery fire for the airstrikes to start. I don't think expendable is the right word. Barzani's government is far more open and friendly with the US. Erbil airport was a base for US strikes, and they've said they want a US base in Iraqi Kurdistan. There were also US personnel in Erbil, so the US were never going to let ISIS get near it. The PYD are far more confrontational to Turkey and the US, and there's no telling what the future of the autonomous region in Syrian Kurdistan would look like when it comes to US interests. So they had a very real motive to aid the Erbil government, and not really any to aid the YPG, because R2P clearly isn't a US interest anymore.
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Oct 9, 2014 16:22
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Volkerball posted:I don't think expendable is the right word. Barzani's government is far more open and friendly with the US. Erbil airport was a base for US strikes, and they've said they want a US base in Iraqi Kurdistan. There were also US personnel in Erbil, so the US were never going to let ISIS get near it. The PYD are far more confrontational to Turkey and the US, and there's no telling what the future of the autonomous region in Syrian Kurdistan would look like when it comes to US interests. So they had a very real motive to aid the Erbil government, and not really any to aid the YPG, because R2P clearly isn't a US interest anymore. Yes more or less, and I don't think it was entirely unpredictable what happened, happened. The US is trying to make up for lost time because it has become a rather large story but the US is spread thin in a lot of ways and Kobane didn't make the cut until it had to become a priority. Also to be clear, there isn't much the US or NATO can do about Turkey at this point, especially after the riots. If anything the riots have provided an larger wedge for Erdogan between the Kurds and Turkish nationalist/far-right and the simply can't risk losing Turkey as a ally (even if it is more and more a nominal one). So ultimately it is a waiting game to see when ISIS overextends itself before it is too late while Turks are most likely going to give them free-reign in at least along the Syrian border.
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Oct 9, 2014 16:29
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Can someone explain was ISIL is attacking Sunni Kurds in the first place? Is it just about expanding territory and they won't join?
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Oct 9, 2014 16:33
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Ardennes posted:Also to be clear, there isn't much the US or NATO can do about Turkey at this point, especially after the riots. If anything the riots have provided an larger wedge for Erdogan between the Kurds and Turkish nationalist/far-right and the simply can't risk losing Turkey as a ally (even if it is more and more a nominal one). Why is Turkey moving out of NATO's orbit, is it the neutering of the Turkish military's influence over the country and the end of the Cold War or something else?
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Oct 9, 2014 16:42
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A big flaming stink posted:and yes, he is what makes this thread worth reading. What makes this thread worth reading are the (mostly) unbiased news reports, opinion articles of people living in the area, documents about life under the current stressings and the still existing intelligent arguments that pop up. A moron who posts the text equivalent of goatse every five posts is GBS quality, gently caress off.
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Oct 9, 2014 16:53
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ReV VAdAUL posted:Why is Turkey moving out of NATO's orbit, is it the neutering of the Turkish military's influence over the country and the end of the Cold War or something else? With Russia grabbing at Black Sea coastal territory, Turkey won't be turning it's back on NATO any time soon. Disagreement on tactics for the Kobane situation doesn't constitute leaving NATO's orbit.
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Oct 9, 2014 17:01
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gohmak posted:Can someone explain was ISIL is attacking Sunni Kurds in the first place? Is it just about expanding territory and they won't join? It's important to remember that ISIL is mostly comprised of Sunni Arabs disenfranchised from the Shia take over of Iraq. The Syrian Kurds are a relatively easy target and ISIL needs victories if it wants to continue its recruitment drive.
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Oct 9, 2014 17:08
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Ardennes posted:Yes more or less, and I don't think it was entirely unpredictable what happened, happened. The US is trying to make up for lost time because it has become a rather large story but the US is spread thin in a lot of ways and Kobane didn't make the cut until it had to become a priority. Aiding kobani is very much in the USs interests to calm poo poo down in Turkey. I think the assessment that the US doesn't really like the PYD is accurate but I just can't figure out why the US isn't being more proactive on the issue. This issue that stands to cause needless blowback in turkey. It is like Washington just sees things in the region and says," well guess those guys don't like each other nothing we can do" Like just walk into the Kurdish eastern Syria put in peacekeepers disarm the ypg. There everyone is happy. Turkey calms down, refugees can go home or go to camps in not-turkey, Kurds happy, we get oil, IS doesn't get oil. Or get the PYD to make concessions. The PYD head honcho just said that Turkey isn't even answering his phone calls. Like, Jesus loving Christ people you need to talk to people in order to get what you want.
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Oct 9, 2014 17:10
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Torpor posted:
Sarcasm is hard on the internet. This is sarcasm, right?
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Oct 9, 2014 17:29
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ReV VAdAUL posted:Why is Turkey moving out of NATO's orbit, is it the neutering of the Turkish military's influence over the country and the end of the Cold War or something else? A lot of it is Erdogan and the AKP, and on going strains of thought in Turkish politics. One thing is Kurdish nationalism pisses all strains of mainstream Turkish politics off except obviously the Kurdish parties. Another thing is Erdogan has a chip-on his shoulder because of the supposed ties between the "Deep State", NATO and the CIA and the history of coups by the military against Islam-leaning parties in the country. Erdogan obviously wants to take Turkey in a more independent direction, and Turkey has been building up their military industrial complex as part of that. I don't think he wants to formally leave NATO but more or less conduct his own foreign policy while daring the rest of NATO to do anything about it. Also, as long as Turkey is part of NATO, they are going to receive access to Western technology while at the same time building up their own indigenous industry. The next Turkish MBT is going to be of Turkish design and there are several indigenous fighters planned. Chadderbox posted:With Russia grabbing at Black Sea coastal territory, Turkey won't be turning it's back on NATO any time soon. Disagreement on tactics for the Kobane situation doesn't constitute leaving NATO's orbit. I don't think Turkey is going to leave NATO, but to be honest, Turkey can handle itself against Russia this point. If anything Turkey may be better armed than most of Europe at the moment, especially their army. Torpor posted:Aiding kobani is very much in the USs interests to calm poo poo down in Turkey. Granted, I have a feeling Erdogan is okay with seeing the YPG/PYD flattened and the riots that result, that one image of Kurds standing with a blacken Ataturk statue is telling in that regard. The US has multiple fronts to cover and so many aircraft, and Kobane was ultimately put on the back-burner. I don't think it was the best decision in the world, but I think the expectation was that the Turks would be more proactive at some point but ultimately they might have seriously misjudged Erdogan who would accept some chaos in order to fulfill his political goals. Also, "just send peacekeepers into Syria" means we will be dragged into a ground conflict with ISIS which the US public doesn't want and the US can't afford. I don't know what concessions the YPG could give to make Erdogan happy because to disarm and disband. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 17:43 on Oct 9, 2014 |
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Oct 9, 2014 17:39
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mlmp08 posted:Sarcasm is hard on the internet. This is sarcasm, right? Flippant, actually. The point is that it does not appear that Washington is doing much to attempt to reconcile the differences amongst potential allies in the region to further its own goals. It appears that is due to  I suppose they could be acting on the down low but that doesn't really make any sense. It further appears that failure to do so has resulted, somewhat expectedly, in rioting in Turkey. Now that the PYD has been in a bind recently they can probably be brought to the table on collateral issues, in addition to being partners on the campaign to degrade IS. Understandably, turkey has some heartburn over a PKK affiliate running around with guns. If the PYD can have their safety assured, they would likely stand down a large number of fighters simply due to militia members having a tendency to like going home. God knows the PYD was more than happy to stay out of the Syrian civil war anyway.
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Oct 9, 2014 17:46
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Two synchronized suicide attacks in Yemen killed more than 60 people today, mainly Houthis. It was almost certainly AQAP, who have declared war against the Houthis, and who also boast a lot about "synchronized operations". There is some extra friction between the Houthis and the government, with accusations about the regime not providing enough protection, implying that they're implicit somehow. The Southern Movement have also begun talking about taking advantage of the situation in Sana'a, hinting about an insurgency in the South. The Houthis and the Southern Movement are the only two powerful factions not in open conflict at the moment, if you don't count the Saleh camp who are trying to nestle their way into power through the Houthi takeover (Saleh had his loyal tribesmen stand down during the takeover). It's all getting bananas. http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/10/aqap_suicide_attacks.php#ixzz3FfFvUBis
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Oct 9, 2014 17:57
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Is it at all possible that the US and allies have realized that there's no use in destroying IS and creating another power vacuum, and their ineffectual response is a more of strategy to allow IS to capture a predefined area and create their state?
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Oct 9, 2014 18:49
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Torpor posted:Flippant, actually. The point is that it does not appear that Washington is doing much to attempt to reconcile the differences amongst potential allies in the region to further its own goals. It appears that is due to That doesn't address really that Erdogan would rather see the YPG crushed period at this point though then live with them and the US can only do so much about that. It could have ISIS with airstrikes earlier but thats about it.
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Oct 9, 2014 18:49
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A Fancy 400 lbs posted:Probably because Turkey has the borders locked down(unless you're going to fight for ISIS). Turkish border never meant anything to PKK before. Border is porous for everyone, and Turkey looked the other way when PKK fighters went to fight Daesh earlier this year when Daesh made their advance on Arbil and Mahmour. Al Jazeera did a piece on 23 people died during riots. I could not find it in English so I will summarize: 10 died in Diyarbakır. 4 workers of an Islamic NGO close to Huda-Par (Kurdish Hezbollah) got lynched by PKK mob. Of the four, one is partially burned, another has his throat cut, a third got thrown off a building. One person got shot by Huda-Par supporters. Others identities and reason of death is unclear. 1 died in Van. Died when police clashed with protestors burning Bediüzzaman Külliye(mosque complex belonging to Huda-Par). Reason of death unknown, probably Huda-Par supporter shot trying to stop the burning. 5 died in Mardin. PKK sources say 2 protestors killed (shot) by Huda-Par supporters. Third person did a hit and run on two kids while trying to avoid protestors. Unidentified persons tailed and shot him. Last 2 bodies belong to syrian refugees kidnapped earlier this day. Also repeatedly shot. 1 died in Varto, Muş. Protestor shot by police. 2 died in Kurtalan, Siirt. Unidentified persons opened fire on looters. 1 died in istanbul. Unidentified persons opened fire on protestors with a shotgun. 1 died in Batman. Identity unclear, but probably a gunned down protestor. 1 died in Adana. Knifed by unidentified persons for allegedly being a Daesh supporter. Link is here: http://www.aljazeera.com.tr/al-jazeera-ozel/23-kisi-nasil-oldu My take is PKK is trying to drive Kurdish Hezbollah off their turf, and strengthen Apo's hand during negotiations with the state by creating a problem only he can solve. We will probably soon hear his appeal to calm tensions.
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Oct 9, 2014 18:49
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never trust an elf posted:Is it at all possible that the US and allies have realized that there's no use in destroying IS and creating another power vacuum, and their ineffectual response is a more of strategy to allow IS to capture a predefined area and create their state? The prerequisites of military coordination and uniform ideological acceptance from all parties involved are too insane to seriously contemplate. If we're "going there" we may as well presuppose the driving force behind it is a secret group of twelve Patriots calling themselves The Wisemen's Committee seeking to control all information and conflict itself. what the gently caress is with this thread and lending itself to videogame analogies jesus christ
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Oct 9, 2014 19:15
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Some kind of 'secularist' conference is happening with well known kook-grump Dawkins in it to discuss ISIS and the religious far right. It really shows how overrated these academic 'intellectuals' are, when you can gather a whole bunch of them in a room and none of them will figure out that the answer is really as simple as 'Allow Arab countries (especially American allies, are the biggest bankrollers of fascism) to become democracies, stop arming and helping their police state functions and support people in removing their military fascist juntas, thus the market for groups like ISIS will disappear. QED.' Seriously, where were these people when the Egyptian fascists rolled out the tanks.
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Oct 9, 2014 19:32
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If you wanted the PYD to disarm those peacekeepers better not be Turks, putting Northern Syria under Turkish military control would not be accepted by the PYD at all. You'd have to have a foreign force of some sort, I doubt Iraq would be up to it. You could maybe strike some kind of bargain to let the KRG in but no way would that be palatable to Baghdad. Unless you're willing to commit European/American troops to a peacekeeping operation it would be a non-starter and good luck getting a UN mandate for that, you'd be talking a unilateral NATO/EU move. It is interesting to note that Apo's reaction to the current crisis has been to issue a deadline of Oct 15th for the resumption of detailed negotiations between the PKK and the Turkish government, a pretty reserved play all in all. It's clear that he really does not want to restart the insurgency and abandon the peace process, he probably has enough power to contain the PKK for the time being - Turkey will be in real bother if Apo loses his pull, the military leadership are a hell of a lot more Hawkish and have never really been happy with the peace process. kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Oct 9, 2014 |
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Oct 9, 2014 19:38
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Al-Saqr posted:
Cheering them on because they were tanking the Muslim Brotherhood.
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Oct 9, 2014 19:39
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Count Roland posted:I've seen this argument before but it is extremely incomplete. Rebels in Iraq during the past decade could not operate openly, because of US power. They stuck with guerrilla tactics, and only fought pitched battles in urban areas. It is important to remember that the US doesn't have the kind of firepower on hand that we did from 2003-2010. If we had a supercarrier loitering off the Syrian coast and special ops on the ground for spotting, I'm sure things would be different, but we don't, and have made it abundantly clear that we're not willing to make commitments on that scale anytime soon. Al-Saqr posted:Some kind of 'secularist' conference is happening with well known kook-grump Dawkins in it to discuss ISIS and the religious far right. To be fair, Dawkins and other public intellectuals of his type are often operating outside the areas where they actually qualify as academic intellectuals. He would presumably seem far less moronic if he were at a biology conference, talking about biology. Whatever material comes out of the conference would likewise seem more legitimate if their guests-of-honor were International Affairs, Theology and History professors rather than New Atheist STEM nerds. There's some kind of sideways Dunning-Kruger variant in play where dudes who are smart in one regard assume they must have special insights into everything, perhaps because they grew over-accustomed to always being the smartest guy in class. In Dawkins' case his fame shields him from being upbraided by people who actually know what the hell they are talking about. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 19:52 on Oct 9, 2014 |
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Oct 9, 2014 19:40
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There was a suicide bombing in crowded downtown Sanaa today, dozens appear to have been killed. Said to be targeting the Houthis (undoubtedly...). Al Qaeda affiliates are also said to have to pulled over a bus carrying Shia soldiers, shot ten and "slaughtered" (read: knifed) three
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Oct 9, 2014 20:01
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PupsOfWar posted:It is important to remember that the US doesn't have the kind of firepower on hand that we did from 2003-2010. Dawkins' latest experience with counter-terrorism is throwing a tantrum over not being allowed to carry an unlabelled jar of viscous amber liquid onto a jet airliner.
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Oct 9, 2014 20:22
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PupsOfWar posted:To be fair, Dawkins and other public intellectuals of his type are often operating outside the areas where they actually qualify as academic intellectuals. He would presumably seem far less moronic if he were at a biology conference, talking about biology. Whatever material comes out of the conference would likewise seem more legitimate if their guests-of-honor were International Affairs, Theology and History professors rather than New Atheist STEM nerds. Scientists going beyond their remit- a lot of technocratic bullshit. After a lecture in the US I chatted with the philosopher Simon Blackburn (by all accounts a "secularist") and he gave me the impression that Dawkins and Harris are really risible characters. As if that wasn't obvious from what they've said about women or Islam. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtH3Q54T-M8
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Oct 9, 2014 20:28
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I'm really surprised America would go with the "Hey, Kobane falling would be tragic, but let's remember the big picture here" line to excuse their lack of involvement when surely "We tried to save Kobane, but ISIS is just too strong! We need more money/political authorization/support/whatever else we want or else ISIS is going to win!" is more advantageous? The first line is creepy and alienating, the second makes it sound like they want to do something but are being restrained by whatever opposition remains to anti-ISIS intervention, and the only difference I can imagine is in the second case people may try to argue that they're lying about not being able to do anything but I don't see that accusation making waves. Kobane falling feels similar to the Yazidis on Mount Sinjar crisis where the humanitarian plight was a great way to rally support for intervention, even if they fail to deliver on it. Dolash fucked around with this message at 20:45 on Oct 9, 2014 |
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Oct 9, 2014 20:42
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never trust an elf posted:Is it at all possible that the US and allies have realized that there's no use in destroying IS and creating another power vacuum, and their ineffectual response is a more of strategy to allow IS to capture a predefined area and create their state? A state based on the premise of jihadi Salafism is pretty incompatible with modern civilization
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Oct 9, 2014 20:43
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never trust an elf posted:Is it at all possible that the US and allies have realized that there's no use in destroying IS and creating another power vacuum, and their ineffectual response is a more of strategy to allow IS to capture a predefined area and create their state? Tbh some part of the US' reason for action is to be seen to be doing something so in that regard at least the results don't matter that much.
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Oct 9, 2014 20:48
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