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Ikantski posted:I couldn't find a housing bubble thread but a meltdown thread started when Lehman collapsed. And the award for worst prediction goes to... When I first posted about the impending housing collapse in a previous Canadian Politics Megathread, a couple of regulars freaked the gently caress out and called me every name in the book. One dude in particular whose name I have sadly forgotten (he had an Al Aqsa gang tag is all I can remember) went on and on about how totally different our banks are, it's different here, etc. I wish that thread was archived so I could call people out, but alas, I'll just have to warm myself with the thought of his almost-certainly-presale condo being underwater.
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# ? Oct 15, 2014 23:49 |
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# ? Jun 5, 2024 06:47 |
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Professor Shark posted:So Canada is juggling a looming housing bubble pop and lovely oil from Alberta, and eventually we're going to drop the balls when either bursts, right? Yeah just like Australia you also have a commodity bubble in addition to a real real estate credit bubble, even though it's not exactly comparable since Canada's main energy export trading partner is the USA. Still even with a stable trading partner like the USA be overly focused in just energy exports leads to other problems such as dutch disease and at the least being at the mercy of commodity price volatility.
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# ? Oct 15, 2014 23:55 |
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Lexicon posted:I've long wondered this, and it still makes absolutely no loving sense to me. The reason for that post is that my co-worker is having issues with her condo's landlord. She's the only renter in a five year old condo on the Waterfront in Toronto. A month ago the handle on the washing machine broke, some pipes had burst earlier and most recently the lock of her mailbox broke off when she was trying to open it. She had a back and forth with the building for a while before they kicked it back to her landlord. The landlord tried to eek out of any repairs by differing to the lease, which says that any repairs under $75 have to be covered by her (the mailbox lock would have been $80, though, so IDK). She threw the "normal wear and tear" at him. He's never showed up for repairs or done anything to improve the condo. My coworker has replaced lighting fixtures, kitchen fixtures at her own expense. Once she had convinced him he was on the hook for the repairs (which seem minor to me? The pipes would be covered by insurance as well?) he told her that she would have to source and arrange the repairman "because she has more time." I explained to her that if this guy's kicking up such a fuss over a couple hundred bucks of repairs, he might not be doing so well on the rental income from her after insurance and maintenance fees. He's trying to screw her to be more profitable and kick the costs back on to her, regardless of what they both agreed to in the lease. I asked if he'd bought the condo off of plans and she said he had. I told her he was very likely Bad with Money in that case and had made a stupid investment and is now flailing. Interesting she wouldn't hear any of that. "He'll make money when he sells it!" even though I pointed out that people are already losing money on downtown condos. I told her how crazy it was to [strike]spend[/strike] go in to debt for hundred of thousands on something you couldn't see or touch. She countered that "he's in IT" and "probably has it." Apparently he drives a fancy car as well, which it pretty much a whole row of "disengaged, overextended glass condo slumlord" bingo card. Crazy. loving crazy. No wonder we're like, a week away from getting hosed as a nation. The lack of financial literacy among my peers is really disheartening. On the other hand, Thanksgiving was lovely because my father has finally acknowledged the housing bubble and is moving his investments away from Canadian real esate.
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# ? Oct 16, 2014 03:48 |
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peter banana posted:
We didn't talk about real estate at my in-laws thanksgiving dinner. Success achieved.
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# ? Oct 16, 2014 03:50 |
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business.financialpost.com/2014/10/15/even-canadian-real-estate-companies-dont-see-much-growth-in-home-prices-left/quote:One of the largest real estate companies in Canada is conceding house prices don’t have much room to go up, but Royal LePage still maintains they won’t fall.
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# ? Oct 16, 2014 04:46 |
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also send this to all your prideful owner friends
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# ? Oct 16, 2014 05:25 |
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Cultural Imperial posted:also What's the source?
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# ? Oct 16, 2014 05:50 |
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Health Services posted:What's the source? The source is math. You can use excel to replicate these numbers.
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# ? Oct 16, 2014 05:52 |
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Health Services posted:What's the source? https://twitter.com/YVRHousing/status/522603584907538433
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# ? Oct 16, 2014 05:59 |
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on the left posted:The source is math. You can use excel to replicate these numbers. Ah, of course it is. I was totally misinterpreting the chart there, thanks for pointing it out And thanks for the link, CI.
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# ? Oct 16, 2014 06:06 |
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Awww yiss. As I've been seeing myself, analysts have now come out and said that the Winnipeg market has stepped on the brakes. Hopefully come next summer or summer 2016 housing prices will start dropping and I'll be able to pick up a place cheap. As long as my wife, who works in residential construction, manages to stay employed
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# ? Oct 16, 2014 08:13 |
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"The only way we're going to get affordability is supply" - Bob Rennie https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Th5qxYOSrpk Vote DJ GREGOR ROBERTSON Y'ALL
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# ? Oct 16, 2014 15:55 |
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Cultural Imperial posted:"The only way we're going to get affordability is supply" - Bob Rennie I cannot wait to see Rennie fall.
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# ? Oct 16, 2014 16:42 |
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They're pretty clear about why there's a housing bubble in australia. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-10-10/private-surveys-lay-bare-australian-housing-market-problems/5805196 quote:
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# ? Oct 16, 2014 17:20 |
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"The latest this week from the Australian Property Institute (API) found 96 per cent of industry players rated foreign investment a "significant driver" of residential property demand and prices in Sydney - more than half of those said it was "very significant"." These are all surveys based on how people "feel" about aspects of the problem. I'm sure you could do a study of Vancouver "players" who would tell you foreign investment is a "very significant" (once again meaningless) factor. Where are the actual stats? Industry players think prices will always go up and the time to buy is now, doesn't make it true. And where is the money coming from for foreign investment? How do they buy? Do they buy cash or are australian/Canadian banks giving them mortgages like anyone else? A ton of foreign buyers buying with foreign cash or foreign debts aren't going to hurt too much come a crash, but locals up to their eyeballs in debt are going to seriously gently caress our financial system and economy in a crash.
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# ? Oct 16, 2014 19:32 |
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http://vancouvercondo.info/2014/10/moving-up-in-vancouver-real-estate-not-so-much.html lololol e: wow this is big. http://vancouvercondo.info/2014/10/well-that-must-be-the-top-then.html#comments VCI bear poster "patriotz" has bought a house. I've been following this blog for about 6 years and "patriotz" was as unwavering as I in the opinion that Canada's housing market is bullshit. WELP TIME TO BUY A FUCKIN HOUSE namaste friends fucked around with this message at 19:56 on Oct 16, 2014 |
# ? Oct 16, 2014 19:39 |
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So most price growth in Vancouver is in the $1.1M range (i.e. outside of CMHC coverage), implying a large number of dollars and demand in that segment, and yet people in this thread still say Vancouver is full explained by loose credit granted to greedy stupid locals!!! Okay, then.
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# ? Oct 16, 2014 20:03 |
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I dunno, I can't explain it.
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# ? Oct 16, 2014 20:13 |
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Cultural Imperial posted:http://vancouvercondo.info/2014/10/moving-up-in-vancouver-real-estate-not-so-much.html I actually thought of you when I saw him posting about his house purchase. Then as the stock market started to unravel with oil this week I thought that "the last bear buying" was a supposed to be a metaphor, not like a literal thing that actually started it. About the chart though if you look at the average price charts for Vancouver, all three segments (condo, townhouses and sfd) are basically flat since 2010. SFD values spike a bunch, but are about the same as they were four years ago. It is just that they had already gone from silly to ludacris values, and have just stayed there since.
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# ? Oct 16, 2014 20:28 |
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<3
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# ? Oct 16, 2014 20:57 |
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Lexicon posted:So most price growth in Vancouver is in the $1.1M range (i.e. outside of CMHC coverage), implying a large number of dollars and demand in that segment, and yet people in this thread still say Vancouver is full explained by loose credit granted to greedy stupid locals!!! On one hand, no matter what is driving housing prices this high, it sucks for people who actually want to live in Vancouver. On the other hand, if insane demand from foreign investors really is the driving force behind the housing market in Vancouver, at least the locals selling these places are securing a decent retirement. In a few decades when these houses are being unloaded it'll be (now ex) rich foreigners with more money than sense left with a house they can't sell for a fifth of what they paid for it. At least in that scenario we won't have a ton of people putting a burden on our social safety net because they bet on the wrong horse and lost. EvilJoven fucked around with this message at 21:29 on Oct 16, 2014 |
# ? Oct 16, 2014 21:25 |
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Lexicon posted:This is pretty much exactly why I'm skeptical of many Keynesian arguments I hear. It seems to basically amount to burning the furniture; i.e. a pretty good short-term fix coupled with far more profound long-term consequences. The basic tenets are still true: the proper response to economic calamity is for the public sector to engage in fiscal stimulus. There are obviously ways to dick up the economy with fiscal stimulus. American military spending hosed up our economy badly during the Cold War, for example. There are better ways to engage in fiscal stimulus and economic planning, and I think they might make an appearance in North America in this century, presumably after we suffer yet another hilariously destructive financial collapse.
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# ? Oct 16, 2014 21:27 |
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And now for something completely different: "As Vancouver cemetery space dwindles, burial prices run upwards of $50K" They're not making any more land. A cemetery plot is an investment in your family's future. Suck it, crematailures.
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# ? Oct 17, 2014 00:12 |
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Lead out in cuffs posted:And now for something completely different: Turn them into condos, problem solved
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# ? Oct 17, 2014 03:32 |
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Pervis posted:I think there was a dedicated thread for a long while, attempting to understand it, and talking a lot about the visible bits and pieces, like Countrywide, sub-prime mortgages, home equity lines of credit, rampant speculation and a bit about Fannie and Freddie being involved eventually. I don't recall seeing all that much of things like the intricacies and obfuscation of derivatives and the opaqueness (and complete lack of regulation) of the derivatives market (MBS, CDO, and CDS), MERS, the ratings agencies complete and intentional ineptness regarding ratings on MBS (our model says house prices never go down!). I can't find the links unfortunately but I did post lots in them.
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# ? Oct 17, 2014 06:38 |
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life...rticle21142644/quote:Matthew Kennedy is a young man many people would consider to be the equivalent of a unicorn in Vancouver. This is, after all, the city renowned in popular mythology as a place with such astronomical house prices that its young will be forced to live in basement suites forever. STOP BEING SO CLUELESS ABOUT MONEY RENTAILURES namaste friends fucked around with this message at 18:00 on Oct 17, 2014 |
# ? Oct 17, 2014 17:58 |
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Cultural Imperial posted:http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life...rticle21142644/ I had to sit for about 5 min in flabberghasted silence after that article, especially the bolded bit. I just don't have words. The financial illiteracy in this country is shocking, and everyone takes their advice from loving realtors. "Building equity" "paying someone else's mortgage" I know far too many very reasonable people who moved to Vancouver and bought, or are planning on buying, or obsessed with buying. I guess when you combine financial illiteracy with a massive social/peer pressure to buy, and a massive amount of pro-buying disinformation it's hard for people to not get caught up in it all. It's often the people that can least afford it doing it because "I'm poor, so I have to buy now when I have the chance!" Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 18:08 on Oct 17, 2014 |
# ? Oct 17, 2014 18:05 |
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you might as well get in
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# ? Oct 17, 2014 18:07 |
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Everyone I know under 30 who bought a Vancouver condo (myself included) got substantial help from their parents. Also, when I bought in 2009, everything I saw under 300k in Vancouver (and lots over) was a complete shitheap, things must be way worse now. The only thing more depressing than someone on minimum wage buying a 300k condo is someone on minimum wage buying a 300k 50 year old shitheap condo.
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# ? Oct 18, 2014 01:04 |
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Cultural Imperial posted:http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life...rticle21142644/ End state: everyone buying and renting from someone else, resulting in everyone paying everyone else's mortgage. Communism has arrived and it is wearing the guise of a housing bubble!
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# ? Oct 18, 2014 01:36 |
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MickeyFinn posted:End state: everyone buying and renting from someone else, resulting in everyone paying everyone else's mortgage. Communism has arrived and it is wearing the guise of a housing bubble! it's a real estate human centipede
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# ? Oct 18, 2014 01:38 |
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etalian posted:it's a real estate human centipede Canadian Housing Bubble: real estate human centipede
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# ? Oct 18, 2014 05:49 |
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quote:“The headlines that portray the current younger generation as being more challenged than previous younger generations to enter the owned side of the housing market are balanced by the data that show continued increase in home ownership rates among young age groups,” the report said. This is the best article that The Onion didn't write... it's staggering.
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# ? Oct 18, 2014 11:53 |
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Baronjutter posted:Canadian Housing Bubble: real estate human centipede Quoting this for accuracy. Also the attitudes in that article holy poo poo. Societal expectations are a hell of a thing.
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# ? Oct 18, 2014 17:10 |
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etalian posted:it's a real estate human centipede If you are only renting, does that mean you are at the tail end? Or the head?
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# ? Oct 18, 2014 18:14 |
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MickeyFinn posted:If you are only renting, does that mean you are at the tail end? Or the head? It's more of an Ouroboros really.
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# ? Oct 18, 2014 18:59 |
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Dreylad posted:Quoting this for accuracy. lmao, Canada wants to be like big brother USA, "You better own a house or condo, or you haven't achieved success in life"
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# ? Oct 19, 2014 04:33 |
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/why-canadian-homes-are-more-unaffordable-than-ever/article15588053/quote:Low interest rates are a form of economic junk food.
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# ? Oct 19, 2014 04:53 |
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So are fixed or variable rate loans popular in Canada?
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# ? Oct 19, 2014 05:02 |
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# ? Jun 5, 2024 06:47 |
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etalian posted:So are fixed or variable rate loans popular in Canada? They're all variable rate loans. Americans think we're insane for diving into 5 year 'fixed' loans. Although, as has been mentioned by many in this thread, the crazy 30 year fixed rate loans Americans can get are costly defacto subsidies.
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# ? Oct 19, 2014 05:05 |