China Economy Megathread

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OXBALLS DOT COM: Sep 11, 2005; by FactsAreUseless; Young Orc

My Imaginary GF posted:

All of these, and:

-Buying men's fashion accessories
(Does a second-hand/resale market exist on these that isn't just knockoffs?)

-Sending your kids to America

What else?

Did we already cover Canadian houses?

# ? Oct 13, 2014 15:30

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# ? May 11, 2024 14:44

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/522553279969234945/photo/1

quote:

4 people were burnt to death during a conflict btw real estate project builder & villagers in Kunming City

hahaha holy poo poo if this is real

# ? Oct 16, 2014 05:18

whatever7: Jul 26, 2001; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

4 people burnt to dead was dressed in fake police uniforms too. Crazy poo poo.

# ? Oct 16, 2014 05:43

My Imaginary GF: Jul 17, 2005; by R. Guyovich

Mange Mite posted:

Did we already cover Canadian houses?

-Canadian real estate

-Buying luxury goods in Europe

# ? Oct 16, 2014 05:51

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/02bf...l#axzz3GYoMNHmW

quote:

China�s hard-pressed property developers are responding to a housing market downturn by parking their bulldozers and turning to a variety of new businesses ranging from hog farming to solar panels to online shopping.

Their search for fresh ideas mirrors Beijing�s efforts to pivot the Chinese economy away from investment- and construction-led growth towards consumer spending and services.

The ultimate aim for developers, says Wee Liat Lee at BNP Paribas, is to �build an ecosystem� that can generate sustainable revenue.

�The business model will revolve around a single person � the resident. He becomes the client for the next 10 years,� said Mr Lee. �The relationship between developer and homebuyer will become very long-lasting.�

China�s large, primarily state-owned property developers were among the main beneficiaries of the government�s stimulus largesse, unleashed in 2009 in response to the global financial crisis. The building boom that followed coincided with a house price surge that delivered real estate companies high growth rates, chunky profit margins, and a flood of cash.
But with house prices and transactions now falling across much of China, developers are experimenting to find new ways to generate steady income, turning them into farmers, retailers and landlords.

History shows the potential benefits of such a shift. Hong Kong developers such as billionaire Li Ka-shing�s Cheung Kong Holdings began as builders but now operate vast, varied � and highly successful � business empires.

China�s property sector, in spite of its size � seven of the world�s top 10 developers by sales are Chinese � remains almost entirely reliant on sales of physical property. Unit sales typically account for 80-90 per cent of revenue, highlighting the appeal of diversification.

One area under investigation is ecommerce, where developers hope to carve out a small slice of the same pie that has made Alibaba one of the world�s largest companies.

With typical new-build developments housing thousands of people, often a fair distance from the nearest shopping district, some builders are setting up their own ecommerce mini-platforms that will warehouse popular goods on site for same-day delivery to residents.

To this end, Wanda recently tied up with Baidu and Tencent, two of China�s biggest internet companies. China�s top commercial developer by sales plans to add to its shopping centres and department stores empire with an online-to-offline retail platform where customers buy products on their smartphones but collect them locally.

Food is another potential growth area. China Vanke, the world�s top builder by sales, is among those putting canteens in its developments, offering meals to a generation of office workers who increasingly prefer not to cook at home. Some are going even further, hoping to exploit China�s miserable food safety record by securing their own supply chains.

Albert Lau, head of China research at Savills, believes such perks will �enrich the living experience of residents�, helping developers and their projects stand out from the crowd.

However, analysts have expressed some concerns. Evergrande said last week it would spend nearly $15bn to produce solar panels, just weeks after investing more than $1bn in agriculture � including pig farming, cooking oil and baby powder. The rapid-fire spending drew criticism from rating agency Standard & Poor�s while Moody�s cut the company�s credit outlook to negative.
Evergrande �faces execution risks associated with its entry into another completely new industry, not long after its move into the agricultural and consumer businesses,� said analysts at S&P in a report.

Others warn that ending a reliance on unit sales is risky, especially when market sentiment is weak and cashflow is increasingly important to meet debt payments. Evergrande has the highest net gearing of any listed developer, forecast by Barclays to rise to 200 per cent this year, versus the sector average of 82 per cent.

�You�re going from a model where you put in $100 and you take out $150, to one where you put in $100, and the next year you take out $5, or $6, and then maybe $7 the year after,� said one investment banker specialising in the sector. �It�s a very painful and difficult transition to make.�

# ? Oct 19, 2014 05:10

Arglebargle III: Feb 21, 2006

Hehe yeah there's no way the property market might burst.

# ? Oct 19, 2014 05:57

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Arglebargle III posted:

Hehe yeah there's no way the property market might burst.

Has China told the rest of the world about the magic of only having one investment vehicle making that one vehicle immune to crashes? Seems that something like that would be helpful to know.

# ? Oct 20, 2014 00:50

icantfindaname: Jul 1, 2008

I don't think there will be a price crash in China, the government is too willing to intervene in the economy and fudge numbers to let it happen. What will happen is a flatlining of GDP growth

# ? Oct 20, 2014 01:12

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Hey you know that subsidy the PBOC offered to banks in order to get them lending? Something like 81 billion? Well no one took it because no one wants to lend.

Given how dodgy GDP numbers are calculated in China, you can't even fathom how disastrous a flatline would look in real life.

# ? Oct 20, 2014 06:14

My Imaginary GF: Jul 17, 2005; by R. Guyovich

Cultural Imperial posted:

Hey you know that subsidy the PBOC offered to banks in order to get them lending? Something like 81 billion? Well no one took it because no one wants to lend.

Given how dodgy GDP numbers are calculated in China, you can't even fathom how disastrous a flatline would look in real life.

Really? drat, China is hosed.

I have fathomed how disasterous a flatline looks. It may result in a civil war in China; hell, I'd blame the economic slowdown for Hong Kong's problems. That's why I'm wondering the American exposure to Chinese subprime credit.

# ? Oct 20, 2014 06:17

Arglebargle III: Feb 21, 2006

They're going to change the CCP scorecard* to count debt levels in addition to GDP growth. Kind of closing the barn door after the horse has bolted but at least we'll have no more ridiculous projects like the Gansu government agency that wanted to level mountains and fill valleys to build more cities. GDP growth as a metric for party advancement has been a big driver of the huge loans taken out by local government to pay for infrastructure projects. It's an incredibly easy way to goose GDP numbers. With major officials rotated from place to place I'm sure there was an I'll-Be-Gone-You'll-Be-Gone mentality towards debt. If that sounds like a recipe for terrible policy, welcome to the last 10 years.

*The semi-secret set of metrics by which the tenure of a communist party official is judged. These were first leaked in 2011 I believe.

Arglebargle III fucked around with this message at 12:05 on Oct 21, 2014

# ? Oct 21, 2014 12:03

TheBalor: Jun 18, 2001

My Imaginary GF posted:

Really? drat, China is hosed.

I have fathomed how disasterous a flatline looks. It may result in a civil war in China; hell, I'd blame the economic slowdown for Hong Kong's problems. That's why I'm wondering the American exposure to Chinese subprime credit.

Surely that's exaggeration. Are the top levels of CCP leadership that divided?

# ? Oct 21, 2014 12:13

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Arglebargle III posted:

They're going to change the CCP scorecard* to count debt levels in addition to GDP growth. Kind of closing the barn door after the horse has bolted but at least we'll have no more ridiculous projects like the Gansu government agency that wanted to level mountains and fill valleys to build more cities. GDP growth as a metric for party advancement has been a big driver of the huge loans taken out by local government to pay for infrastructure projects. It's an incredibly easy way to goose GDP numbers. With major officials rotated from place to place I'm sure there was an I'll-Be-Gone-You'll-Be-Gone mentality towards debt. If that sounds like a recipe for terrible policy, welcome to the last 10 years.

*The semi-secret set of metrics by which the tenure of a communist party official is judged. These were first leaked in 2011 I believe.

Yeah with GDP numbers more than ever seeming to be "decided on" beforehand, there is still plenty of room for graft as long as the party line on statistics is kept as it has been.

I do have to say I am surprised when I read something on Bloomberg accepting new GDP growth announcements without even the smallest gain of salt. Is it really a "tinfoil hat conspiracy" to suspect the numbers the CCP is publishing at this point?

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/21/business/international/mixed-economic-signals-from-china.html?_r=0

quote:

Mixed Economic Signals From China
By NEIL GOUGHOCT. 20, 2014

HONG KONG � Markets around the world have been jolted by fears that slowing growth and deflationary pressures in Europe, Japan and other major economies could derail the United States. But the health of China, for decades an engine of growth, has emerged as one of the most significant wild cards in the global economy.

It is hard to be certain just exactly how the Chinese economy is faring, given mixed signals in the data.

Chinese inflation is at its weakest levels in nearly five years. Commodity prices are plunging. New home sales are declining. Foreign investment is contracting.

The overall economy, though, continues to chug along at a steady, albeit more modest, pace. China�s gross domestic product increased by 7.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with 7.5 percent in the previous quarter. While that was the lowest quarterly growth since the depths of the financial crisis in 2009, the rate remains the envy of major economies. The economy also continues adding jobs at a good clip, and the currency is one of very few that are still rising against the dollar.

But even in the jobs figures, broad disparities exist across China. Employment has grown solidly in the services sector nearly every month in the last five years, according to the purchasing managers index compiled by HSBC and Markit. By contrast, manufacturing employment, which generally expanded from 2009 through 2011, has mostly contracted since.

At an employment fair for the medical appliance industry at a government-run career center near the Lama Temple in Beijing last week, more than a hundred job seekers bantered with recruiters and weighed their options. A 42-year-old man who gave only his surname, Mr. Lin, was applying for a job at Beijing Niubao Technology, a chemical equipment maker.

With 20 years of experience in a specialized industry, Mr. Lin expressed confidence about his prospects despite the overall outlook in the sector. �Manufacturing isn�t doing so great in the past few years, but I think chemical equipment is still doing relatively O.K.,� he said.

That somewhat positive outlook is a sharp contrast to most traditional industries. �We didn�t have any new recruits this year,� Huang Xinqun, 48, a manager at a large ocean-shipping company, said last week. �Usually when the manufacturing business is not doing so well, it would be directly reflected on us,� he said.

�We�re like a signal post on how the economy is doing,� Mr. Huang said. �If companies don�t have that many orders and products to transport, then we don�t have as much work.�

A job fair in Beijing. Employment is essential to continue growth in China. Credit Gilles Sabrie for The New York Times
Despite the signs of malaise in China�s manufacturing and industrial sectors, the government is wary of repeating the significant stimulus measures it undertook after the financial crisis. Leaders are worried that would add to China�s ballooning debt, which rose to 250 percent of gross domestic product at the end of June, from 150 percent five years ago, according to estimates by Standard Chartered Bank.

Instead, policy makers in recent months have used targeted, behind-the-scenes stimulus measures, including extending limited amounts of short-term credit to large and medium-size banks. The government also has directed more financing to favored projects, like supporting agricultural efforts and redeveloping shantytowns.

�Things can be done to bolster activity for short periods of time, but I think the fundamental theme is a persistent ratcheting down in the measured rate of growth,� said George Magnus, a financial consultant and a former chief economist at UBS. �China is in for an extended period of volatility.�

Other major indicators offer similarly contradictory perspectives on the progress of China�s economic transition.

Retail sales are rising at their slowest pace in nearly a decade, seemingly casting doubt on the ability of Chinese consumers to drive economic growth. But with an increase of about 12 percent in value this year, sales are hardly anemic.

What is more, official sales figures fail to capture the explosive growth of online shopping in China. The statistics bureau only began including the sales of some unnamed, large Internet retailers in its data this year. But Mark Williams, the chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, estimates that official retail sales figures only capture about one-sixth of the online purchases in China.

Trade figures, too, are somewhat unclear. Reported Chinese exports rose 15.3 percent last month, their biggest increase since 2013. But that was partly because of a 34 percent increase in exports to Hong Kong.

The dynamic has prompted some economists to question whether trade figures are again being distorted by so-called over-
invoicing. The practice was rampant two years ago, when China�s reported exports to Hong Kong surged when companies disguised speculative capital inflows as the proceeds from trade. Hong Kong�s separately reported imports from China are much lower, which economists say is evidence of the practice.

Continue reading the main storyContinue reading the main storyContinue reading the main story
The most problematic economic indicator in China may be gross domestic product itself. Though economists say the data broadly are improving, the numbers do not always seem to add up. For example, the combined G.D.P. reported by each of China�s provinces still regularly exceeds the official total for the country.

Even Mr. Li, the prime minister, has at times expressed doubts over this benchmark measure of output. In 2007, when he was governor of Liaoning Province in northeastern China, Mr. Li privately acknowledged to a visiting American diplomat that China�s G.D.P. figures were unreliable and �for reference only� because they were �man-made,� according to a confidential diplomatic cable released in 2010 by WikiLeaks.

Since then, many economists have supplemented China�s official figures with their own versions of a �Li Keqiang Index,� alternative measures based on what Mr. Li said were his bellwethers of economic expansion. They include electricity consumption, rail cargo volumes and the value of loans disbursed.

�Certainly these data have the potential to be more reliable but there are complications there, too,� said Carsten Holz, a professor of social science at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology who has scrutinized China�s economic data.

�It�s a planned economy thing,� Mr. Holz said of the Li Keqiang indexes, likening them to tallying apples on a tree but making no attempt to calculate their value.

�It is a very rudimentary measure, because you don�t know how many of these apples are rotten, or measure how big they are,� he said. �You are just counting apples.�

This article is a it better, the real surprising part is how different China reported exports to HK and NK's reported imports from China are. If anything since 2010 it is like they have existed in different worlds.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 16:27 on Oct 21, 2014

# ? Oct 21, 2014 14:46

DailyDumSum: May 21, 2004; Fresh Daily

I recently came back from a cheap tourist tour in China. I did not go to Beijing or Shanghai, but instead went to Kumming and Dai Lai. This maybe western economics thinking here, but what I saw (low population, shops everywhere few people buying, entire towers for sale). It really felt like something was going on.

On the tour, I came up with the phrase "just for show", in which I applied to a lot of things in China. This fancy jeweled tissue box from this fancy 5 star hotel? A half used toilet paper roll was inside. This fancy bathroom? Terrible plumbing. When I talk to locals about this "just for show" motto, they get defensive and say that's how life works. FYGM.

Instead of asking, "Why is China using massive amounts of money to fund condo projects that nobody wants to buy in a town nobody wants to live in?", they point out that the US owes China lots of money, and if China is in trouble, so is the US. It's like a country edition of Too Big to Fail. Any slight observations about the state of anything ends with some form of "Our government may not be the best, but it's not like Government never hid stuff, look at the radiation(employment) stats for Japan(America)!"

My point in all this is I feel that China IS misleading everyone with their overall GDP numbers, and every quarter needs to be massaged further to hide that fact. After a few more years of doing so, the numbers they report vs the reality the numbers are suppose to represent would be so far apart that China would have no choice but to come clean, by which I mean the party will find scapegoats that they would say are directly responsible for the numbers, and remove them. They will then promise a more transparent way of GDP (and everything else) calculations.

I have no idea what this means for the world as a whole though. Maybe some other super power country will save us all.

# ? Oct 21, 2014 18:11

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Australia is most definitely hosed.

# ? Oct 21, 2014 18:19

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

DailyDumSum posted:

I recently came back from a cheap tourist tour in China. I did not go to Beijing or Shanghai, but instead went to Kumming and Dai Lai. This maybe western economics thinking here, but what I saw (low population, shops everywhere few people buying, entire towers for sale). It really felt like something was going on.

On the tour, I came up with the phrase "just for show", in which I applied to a lot of things in China. This fancy jeweled tissue box from this fancy 5 star hotel? A half used toilet paper roll was inside. This fancy bathroom? Terrible plumbing. When I talk to locals about this "just for show" motto, they get defensive and say that's how life works. FYGM.

Instead of asking, "Why is China using massive amounts of money to fund condo projects that nobody wants to buy in a town nobody wants to live in?", they point out that the US owes China lots of money, and if China is in trouble, so is the US. It's like a country edition of Too Big to Fail. Any slight observations about the state of anything ends with some form of "Our government may not be the best, but it's not like Government never hid stuff, look at the radiation(employment) stats for Japan(America)!"

My point in all this is I feel that China IS misleading everyone with their overall GDP numbers, and every quarter needs to be massaged further to hide that fact. After a few more years of doing so, the numbers they report vs the reality the numbers are suppose to represent would be so far apart that China would have no choice but to come clean, by which I mean the party will find scapegoats that they would say are directly responsible for the numbers, and remove them. They will then promise a more transparent way of GDP (and everything else) calculations.

I have no idea what this means for the world as a whole though. Maybe some other super power country will save us all.

I wonder if the CCP can come clean at this point especially since every new statistic compounds the issue even further. I have a feeling we may be having to live in "fantasy land" at least at the media/political level since admitting something is seriously off the rails in China questions some of the basic principles of how the global economy is suppose to work.

Also I don't know if there are scapegoats big enough to hide how bad things look like they have gotten in China. Obviously, they may try any way but there is going to be a lot of fallout. I mean China has been beating the growth drum for over 30 years at this point, where is their legitimacy when it turns out to be a fib since 2010-2011 or so?

And yeah, Australia is pretty much screwed, maybe they can keep the housing bubble going for a while but I don't know how the Australian economy is going to bounce back between what is going to be an epic housing crash and an dried up export market.

Brazil is already feeling it and that is one of the big reasons current presidential race is so close.

# ? Oct 21, 2014 18:49

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Out of curiousity, how long can China publish rubbish numbers before it doesn't matter what they say? Obviously they have more leeway since they aren't transparent, but I cannot imagine that the US (or anyone else) would get away for long lying about their GDP.

What is it about China that makes people say there won't be a crash until the government reports the crash?

# ? Oct 21, 2014 20:04

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

ocrumsprug posted:

Out of curiousity, how long can China publish rubbish numbers before it doesn't matter what they say? Obviously they have more leeway since they aren't transparent, but I cannot imagine that the US (or anyone else) would get away for long lying about their GDP.

What is it about China that makes people say there won't be a crash until the government reports the crash?

One thing is that China is seen as a counter-balance to the US and the only real "chance" to replace the US as a the largest economy on earth. However, that reasoning also accepts what China (and the US ironically enough) has done to make that result happen.

Also, I think there is a certain amount of faith in publish statistics simply because usually there is some accuracy to them, I have a feeling that period of history is ending.

# ? Oct 21, 2014 20:09

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

Ardennes posted:

One thing is that China is seen as a counter-balance to the US and the only real "chance" to replace the US as a the largest economy on earth. However, that reasoning also accepts what China (and the US ironically enough) has done to make that result happen.

This plays a significant part in it. There's a narrative that's been permeated everywhere since the 2008 Financial Crisis that developing economies will soon be the masters of the world and that America and the West are in decline. There are a ton of true believers in this, particularly in countries like Russia and China and I suspect that plays no small part in why they've both acted far more belligerent as of late.

# ? Oct 21, 2014 20:13

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Ardennes posted:

One thing is that China is seen as a counter-balance to the US and the only real "chance" to replace the US as a the largest economy on earth. However, that reasoning also accepts what China (and the US ironically enough) has done to make that result happen.

Also, I think there is a certain amount of faith in publish statistics simply because usually there is some accuracy to them, I have a feeling that period of history is ending.

I just try and fail to imagine a situation where some developer in the US was building cities that no one was living in, or someone (a lot of someones) purchasing investment properties in Detroit, and then taking GDP growth numbers seriously.

In China, both of those things seem to be taken as proof that everything is great and thanks for asking.

# ? Oct 21, 2014 20:16

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

ocrumsprug posted:

I just try and fail to imagine a situation where some developer in the US was building cities that no one was living in, or someone (a lot of someones) purchasing investment properties in Detroit, and then taking GDP growth numbers seriously.

In China, both of those things seem to be taken as proof that everything is great and thanks for asking.

Ultimately, it is because the US is more transparent but also....it already happened until 2008 or so. I saw a lot of houses in California that didn't make a whole lot of sense.

The US didn't fake statistics (well...expect unemployment) but ultimately we relied on a very similar bubble economy, but its collapse was more visible. Granted, it is at this point that, it becomes unclear where the global economy has anywhere to go because the "West" and the "East" are on the edge of failure at the moment.

# ? Oct 21, 2014 20:22

OXBALLS DOT COM: Sep 11, 2005; by FactsAreUseless; Young Orc

ocrumsprug posted:

Out of curiousity, how long can China publish rubbish numbers before it doesn't matter what they say? Obviously they have more leeway since they aren't transparent, but I cannot imagine that the US (or anyone else) would get away for long lying about their GDP.

What is it about China that makes people say there won't be a crash until the government reports the crash?

The fact that a lot of very powerful people not just in China but all over the world might lose money if there is an intimation of instability there.

# ? Oct 21, 2014 20:24

whatever7: Jul 26, 2001; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

ocrumsprug posted:

Out of curiousity, how long can China publish rubbish numbers before it doesn't matter what they say? Obviously they have more leeway since they aren't transparent, but I cannot imagine that the US (or anyone else) would get away for long lying about their GDP.

What is it about China that makes people say there won't be a crash until the government reports the crash?

You can just look at the raw material import numbers, you don't have to look at China's number.

Figuring out new ways to use China's over supply labor force IMO is more important than real estate "bubble". Chinese still has no other way to put their saving money except saving accounts with very low interest and real estate.

# ? Oct 21, 2014 22:53

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

And ponzi schemes.

# ? Oct 21, 2014 23:02

My Imaginary GF: Jul 17, 2005; by R. Guyovich

Cultural Imperial posted:

And ponzi schemes.

Sometimes with the same bank, even.

Am I correct in my assumption that China's holding of foreign debt is denominated in dollars?

# ? Oct 21, 2014 23:04

ocrumsprug: Sep 23, 2010; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

whatever7 posted:

You can just look at the raw material import numbers, you don't have to look at China's number.

Figuring out new ways to use China's over supply labor force IMO is more important than real estate "bubble". Chinese still has no other way to put their saving money except saving accounts with very low interest and real estate.

Isn't one of the most popular methods of getting currency out of the country, other than a suitcase or taped to your body, by making large foreign raw material purchases from a supplier you happen to own and then forgetting to deliver the materials?

Everyday Chinese having only one option to invest their money, so it is safe, really is an interesting argument. China should share their knowledge of that with the rest of the world, as we would like it if our markets would stop exploding every so often.

# ? Oct 21, 2014 23:49

pentyne: Nov 7, 2012

ocrumsprug posted:

Isn't one of the most popular methods of getting currency out of the country, other than a suitcase or taped to your body, by making large foreign raw material purchases from a supplier you happen to own and then forgetting to deliver the materials?

Everyday Chinese having only one option to invest their money, so it is safe, really is an interesting argument. China should share their knowledge of that with the rest of the world, as we would like it if our markets would stop exploding every so often.

Also at the high stakes baccarat tables in Macau.

One of those "We should do something about this" things that keeps getting tossed around in the CCP but the top heads and major influential military members have a vested interest in being able to move massive sums of money out of mainland China.

# ? Oct 22, 2014 00:13

computer parts: Nov 18, 2010; PLEASE CLAP

Fojar38 posted:

This plays a significant part in it. There's a narrative that's been permeated everywhere since the 2008 Financial Crisis that developing economies will soon be the masters of the world and that America and the West are in decline. There are a ton of true believers in this, particularly in countries like Russia and China and I suspect that plays no small part in why they've both acted far more belligerent as of late.

America is in "decline" relative to earlier but that's because there's nowhere to go but down after the post WW2 situation. The key point though is that some believe the narrative is "[BRICS country] will take the US's position" when in reality it will be "[BRICS country] will be comparable with the US in 20XX but will not have a very large share of the pie".

# ? Oct 22, 2014 00:20

icantfindaname: Jul 1, 2008

The US isn't actually in decline, though. Growth in the US has been significantly better than Europe and Japan for a long time now, and looks like it might even be better than China in the future, depending on how badly China implodes. There's a very plausible scenario where the rest of the world basically goes down in flames and the US keeps trucking along, and that, at least with China, is seeming more likely every day

# ? Oct 22, 2014 00:44

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

computer parts posted:

America is in "decline" relative to earlier but that's because there's nowhere to go but down after the post WW2 situation. The key point though is that some believe the narrative is "[BRICS country] will take the US's position" when in reality it will be "[BRICS country] will be comparable with the US in 20XX but will not have a very large share of the pie".

Even that is questionable since the middle-income trap has already claimed several of the vaunted BRICS economies and seems poised to capture China as well.

# ? Oct 22, 2014 00:44

Typo: Aug 19, 2009; Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

icantfindaname posted:

The US isn't actually in decline, though. Growth in the US has been significantly better than Europe and Japan for a long time now, and looks like it might even be better than China in the future, depending on how badly China implodes. There's a very plausible scenario where the rest of the world basically goes down in flames and the US keeps trucking along, and that, at least with China, is seeming more likely every day

Even if China starts growing at a far slower path it will still have exceeded the US as the largest economy in the world, or will do so eventually if you use nominal measure of GDP.

So even if we just assume the power of the PRC and the US remains relatively constant, it's still very significant. None of the major geopolitical rivals to the US in the 20th century: Germany, Japan and the USSR, has came even close to match the amount of economic resources the US possessed. All 3 had economies a fraction of the size of the US. In other words, China will be far more powerful a rival than even the Soviet Union was if Cold War 2.0 ever breaks out.

quote:

Even that is questionable since the middle-income trap has already claimed several of the vaunted BRICS economies and seems poised to capture China as well.

Yeah, it's really problematic, and the solution to it is political change in the PRC. And the result of that might very well be a 50/50 between wonderful and disastrous.

Typo fucked around with this message at 01:59 on Oct 22, 2014

# ? Oct 22, 2014 01:54

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
---------------------------->

quote:

Even if China starts growing at a far slower path it will still have exceeded the US as the largest economy in the world, or will do so eventually if you use nominal measure of GDP.

This assumes a permanently stagnant US economy which is not the case.

quote:

None of the major geopolitical rivals to the US in the 20th century: Germany, Japan and the USSR, has came even close to match the amount of economic resources the US possessed.

The USSR did, it just turns out that central planning is a really inefficient way to run an economy.

quote:

Yeah, it's really problematic, and the solution to it is political change in the PRC. And the result of that might very well be a 50/50 between wonderful and disastrous.

Avoiding the middle-income trap by adopting western style democracy is the way that Japan and South Korea managed to avoid it, and if China does so it may be able to avoid it as well, though I will point out that under such circumstances a US-China rivalry probably wouldn't exist anymore.

# ? Oct 22, 2014 04:33

Fall Sick and Die: Nov 22, 2003

That's right, all democracies are friends.

# ? Oct 22, 2014 04:39

Fojar38: Sep 2, 2011; Sorry I meant to say I hope that the police use maximum force and kill or maim a bunch of innocent people, thus paving a way for a proletarian uprising and socialist utopia

also here's a stupid take
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Fall Sick and Die posted:

That's right, all democracies are friends.

They tend to be more inclined to tolerate one another's competition.

# ? Oct 22, 2014 04:42

icantfindaname: Jul 1, 2008

Fall Sick and Die posted:

That's right, all democracies are friends.

Pretty much, yes. They don't invade each other and, at least recently, don't put up massive trade barriers

# ? Oct 22, 2014 04:46

computer parts: Nov 18, 2010; PLEASE CLAP

icantfindaname posted:

Pretty much, yes. They don't invade each other and, at least recently, don't put up massive trade barriers

Your definition of democracy seems to be "agrees with the West".

# ? Oct 22, 2014 04:48

Typo: Aug 19, 2009; Chernigov Military Aviation Lyceum
The Fighting Slowpokes

Fojar38 posted:

The USSR did, it just turns out that central planning is a really inefficient way to run an economy.

The USSR never exceeded something like 1/3 the size of the US economy in terms of GDP, and that's by Soviet numbers which may or may not be complete fantasy. And yeah, central planning meant that what was produced may or may not actually be useful for anything.

And China doesn't have central planning anymore and have not since like 80s-90s

# ? Oct 22, 2014 04:50

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

Fojar38 posted:

The USSR did, it just turns out that central planning is a really inefficient way to run an economy.

By 1989, the USSR's GDP was about half that of the US, $2,659 B versus $5,233B. If anything it was impressive the Soviet Union lasted so long against an alliance of countries that was so much more economically powerful then them, but it also explains a lot of the choices they made and the shortcuts they took.

GDP per capita in 1989 was around $9,000 versus $21,000 in the US, in comparison the USSR has GDP per capita similar to Venezuela.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 04:59 on Oct 22, 2014

# ? Oct 22, 2014 04:51

icantfindaname: Jul 1, 2008

computer parts posted:

Your definition of democracy seems to be "agrees with the West".

Do you have any examples of democracies that don't agree with the "West", or have consistently pursued a policy of military aggression towards it?

# ? Oct 22, 2014 04:52

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# ? May 11, 2024 14:44

computer parts: Nov 18, 2010; PLEASE CLAP

icantfindaname posted:

Do you have any examples of democracies that don't agree with the "West", or have consistently pursued a policy of military aggression towards it?

Argentina re: The Falklands.

# ? Oct 22, 2014 04:53

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