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Comparisons to Taiwan usually work best since it's a country full of ethnically, linguistically, culturally, genetically similar people. It followed a similar path of development and used a lot of the same policies and ideas. I know Taiwan never imposed a one child policy and I know fertility rates are now like 0 children per woman but I don't know what the rate of decline looks like.
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Oct 27, 2014 18:14
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It's not that hard. As a country gets richer, people have less babies.
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Oct 27, 2014 18:17
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People also have less babies when the chance the baby survives to adulthood goes up, since there's no need to hedge your bets, as it were.
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Oct 27, 2014 18:35
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It does go back up a bit with improved healthcare, welfare, and maternity leave systems though
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Oct 27, 2014 18:39
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Ceciltron posted:People also have less babies when the chance the baby survives to adulthood goes up, since there's no need to hedge your bets, as it were. Not if people don't get richer, no. You have uncontrolled population growth in those cases, which decreases human development rates and increases population growth. Its a viscious cycle.
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Oct 27, 2014 18:42
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You can also have crazies who want to have lots of kids (Israeli Settlers, The American 'Quiverful' movement')
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Oct 27, 2014 18:48
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My wife's parents kept popping them out until they had a son. 4 daughters in a row. The first daughter, her father was disappointed, but accepted it. The second (my wife) he was angry. The third, he cried. The fourth had a convenient illness in infancy while in the care of an "aunt" no one talks to, and did not make it. And that is how my wife is pretty sure that if she had ever had a serious illness as a child she would not have survived it.
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Oct 27, 2014 19:00
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Its a delicious irony of humanity that attractive couples are more likely to have female children then unattractive couples. I suppose the lesson is, if you want a boy so bad that you're willing to kill your third child, well, you should've married an ugglo.
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Oct 27, 2014 19:04
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VideoTapir posted:My wife's parents kept popping them out until they had a son. 4 daughters in a row. The first daughter, her father was disappointed, but accepted it. The second (my wife) he was angry. The third, he cried. Good lord that is scary.
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Oct 27, 2014 19:09
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Vladimir Putin posted:Good lord that is scary. My mother's retarded twin sister drowned in the bathtub, in North Dakota. My mom isn't convinced it was an accident, and given what I know about her mom, I believe her. Her mom also tried to marry her off to a 45 year old man when she was 17. There's scary poo poo all over.
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Oct 27, 2014 19:21
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Ardennes posted:Hong Kong is a pretty different situation since it is a Westernized city state. According to this graph Korea and Thailand had very similar drops in fertility rates compared with China during the same period of time.
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Oct 27, 2014 20:23
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Didn't Mao actively encourage people to have babies in the 50s and 60s though? You can't look at China vs other countries from 1970 on if the meat of the problem happened before then
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Oct 27, 2014 21:16
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kenner116 posted:According to this graph Korea and Thailand had very similar drops in fertility rates compared with China during the same period of time. One of the largest questions I have is the accuracy of China's data reporting. One of my hookups is a second child of central party officials who was sent off to be raised by her grandparents because the family already had one daughter; I wonder how often this occurs, and whether a statistically significant increase in reported gerontological pregnancy can be found in the published Chinese population data after the inteoduction of one-child policy versus rates pre-introduction.
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Oct 27, 2014 21:22
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kenner116 posted:According to this graph Korea and Thailand had very similar drops in fertility rates compared with China during the same period of time. I think different things are going on, in 1970, using nominal terms, China was about $144 GDP per capita, Thailand was $583 and Korea was $1967. China was far less developed compared to Korea/Thailand which by the 1970s had started to make the first moves toward export focused industrialization while it would take China far longer. China's birthday declined far before industrialization and its transition to an export economy happen.
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Oct 27, 2014 21:45
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VideoTapir posted:My wife's parents kept popping them out until they had a son. 4 daughters in a row. The first daughter, her father was disappointed, but accepted it. The second (my wife) he was angry. The third, he cried. Oh hey, that's like exactly the opposite of my immediate family. Mom kept having boys and everyone was banking on a girl until she gave up after the 4th birth. Big shame too, since girls are the first inheritors in my family.
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Oct 28, 2014 03:02
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WarpedNaba posted:Oh hey, that's like exactly the opposite of my immediate family. Mom kept having boys and everyone was banking on a girl until she gave up after the 4th birth. Yeah I know a guy (native Taiwanese too), he's one of 5 brothers and one (youngest) sister, over a span of at least a decade. I'm personally happier with girls. 
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Oct 28, 2014 05:14
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caberham posted:
Apparently my imagination put both doctors and Foxconn workers' wages too high!
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Oct 28, 2014 06:45
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and I will let you rant about China with the wrong figures.
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I heard a pretty good quote tonight, "The next 30 years for China will prove more critical and difficult than the last 30 years."
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Oct 28, 2014 07:46
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My Imaginary GF posted:I heard a pretty good quote tonight, That's a lot of Friedman Units.
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Oct 28, 2014 08:06
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Ardennes posted:It did limit population growth but didn't halt it, and it has remained more or less stable across the 2000s. Of course you also now have the issue of very soon an inverted age pyramid and gender imbalances. Perhaps without the one child policy there would've been a disaster anyways, but the inverted age pyramid is going to be an enormous problem. It'll be the baby boom retirement times 10, and China's artificial constriction of birth rates will also cause their demographic divided to evaporate even more rapidly than normal.
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Oct 28, 2014 08:06
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My Imaginary GF posted:I heard a pretty good quote tonight, I think that's probably true if vacuous and inspecific, catch-up growth is easy and after the cultural revolution there was a strong concensus not to rock the boat in any way. Both those things are fading.
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Oct 28, 2014 08:09
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V for Vegas posted:That's a lot of Friedman Units. Said by the President's right-hand man on foreign policy development. Arglebargle III posted:I think that's probably true if vacuous and inspecific, catch-up growth is easy and after the cultural revolution there was a strong concensus not to rock the boat in any way. Both those things are fading. It was in the context of China's growing nationalism, competing foreign policy interests, increasing civil unrest, oncoming recessionary period, and unwillingness to pay their fair share towards global development snd security issues such as climate change and disease containment. My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 08:25 on Oct 28, 2014 |
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Oct 28, 2014 08:23
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Arglebargle III posted:Apparently my imagination put both doctors and Foxconn workers' wages too high! Being a waiter or some entry level job in a the coastal city can get you 5000 RMB a month but food and board is not included. Somehow the money you pocket ends up being the same. Some people prefer working in an assembly line because they rather interact with machines instead of people. Then there's this miracle restaurant Hai Di Lao, where staff turn over is much lower than the industry average, and service staff get much higher pay and perks.
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Oct 28, 2014 09:10
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The biggest issue for China may simply be an emptying of savings in the West and the rise of competition that can cut their labor costs even lower. The US probably isn't going to be buying far more Chinese manufactured goods then they already are. I think it is fair to think of the early 1980s to the early 2010s as a pretty remarkable industrialization bubble helped fueled by peace and very generous trade rights from the West especially the United States.
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Oct 28, 2014 10:04
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In the province I'm in it's illegal for doctors to disclose the gender of unborn children, unless it is medically necessary. I went to the hospital recently and had to get a few ultrasounds and there were notices and signs everywhere explaining this. I'm pretty sure the legality of this varies by region, and it's pretty much unenforceable. Just grease the doctor with a few hundred RMB and you're in business.
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Oct 28, 2014 10:56
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Woodsy Owl posted:In the province I'm in it's illegal for doctors to disclose the gender of unborn children, unless it is medically necessary. I went to the hospital recently and had to get a few ultrasounds and there were notices and signs everywhere explaining this. I'm pretty sure the legality of this varies by region, and it's pretty much unenforceable. Just grease the doctor with a few hundred RMB and you're in business. That or get your ultrasound in Hong Kong or abroad. Think the unofficial rate is 2000 rmb for the screening 
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Oct 28, 2014 10:58
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caberham posted:Some people prefer working in an assembly line because they rather interact with machines instead of people. The smart people iyam
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Oct 28, 2014 11:32
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Have we D&D'd Chinese efficiency yet?
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Oct 28, 2014 12:19
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caberham posted:Being a waiter or some entry level job in a the coastal city can get you 5000 RMB a month but food and board is not included. Somehow the money you pocket ends up being the same. Some people prefer working in an assembly line because they rather interact with machines instead of people. Then there's this miracle restaurant Hai Di Lao, where staff turn over is much lower than the industry average, and service staff get much higher pay and perks. While the minimum wage for factory is fairly low, what I am hearing from factory managers is that if a factory doesn't provide sufficient overtime hours (which legally is 1.5-2 times the minimum wage), the factory will suffer high turnover rate since many workers rather work more to save up more money by the time they quit. When I was visiting my company's warehouse last month my boss was talking with the warehouse manager to figure out busy work for the workers to do during overtime since business has been slow recently so there isn't much for the workers to do even with their regular hour.
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Oct 28, 2014 13:00
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Cocoa Ninja posted:Perhaps without the one child policy there would've been a disaster anyways, but the inverted age pyramid is going to be an enormous problem. Maybe they'll start accepting immigrants and everyone in the thread can finally get their green card and start being treated nicely by the perfidious Han
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Oct 28, 2014 13:22
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Fall Sick and Die posted:Maybe they'll start accepting immigrants and everyone in the thread can finally get their green card and start being treated nicely by the perfidious Han  Accepting immigrants Han Chinese are White People v2.0. Take it from me, I'm Southeast Asian, a.k.a. Asian Mexican.
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Oct 28, 2014 14:08
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I'm Jewish, aka whitish
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Oct 28, 2014 14:44
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http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-10-27/it-s-time-to-give-china-some-timequote:Is China headed for a boom or bust? Depending on whom you read, the world’s most populous nation is on the cusp of either a debt meltdown, or a middle-class expansion. Whee!
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Oct 28, 2014 14:44
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Warcabbit posted:http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-10-27/it-s-time-to-give-china-some-time It can be both! (Like the US from 1870-1935)
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Oct 28, 2014 14:51
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Warcabbit posted:http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-10-27/it-s-time-to-give-china-some-time That pretty much is par for course as for Bloomberg's editorial slant, I mean Bloomberg has been real bullish on China since the early 2000s. He cites disposable income growth, but not whether urban Chinese will sit on that money instead of consuming enough to keep the system going.
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Oct 28, 2014 15:18
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More Occupy news! Head of Liberal Party, the pro business sector of Hong Kong James Tien: http://online.wsj.com/articles/china-advisory-body-to-vote-on-hong-kong-lawmaker-james-tiens-membership-1414497714 quote:HONG KONG—China’s top advisory body was set to vote on Wednesday on whether to revoke the membership of Hong Kong politician and businessman James Tien, according to a person familiar with the situation. This is loving insane. James Tien has been around in HK politics for quite a while and lead the liberal party. He was the previous head of the tourism sector of Hong Kong and organized a few successful events like the Wine and Beverage festivals and other events. Even he has to go just for stating his opinion. Beijing is trying to get all the boot lickers in line and man if Tien does get voted off, then a major portion of the pan establishment moderates will stop supporting the HK government.
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Oct 28, 2014 15:25
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caberham posted:if Tien does get voted off, then a major portion of the pan establishment moderates will stop supporting the HK government. Sounds awesome, I love watching Beijing shoot itself in the foot. Keep us updated!
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Oct 28, 2014 15:37
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caberham posted:then a major portion of the pan establishment moderates will stop supporting the HK government. But not even Tien's own brother is supporting James Tien's decision. http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1627050/james-tien-faces-cppcc-expulsion-after-calling-cy-leung-resihn quote:Tien's younger brother, lawmaker Michael Tien Puk-sun, said a delegate had a duty to observe the CPPCC's rules and should be prepared to pay a price if they felt a need to air their views. Also it's official: James Tien has been stripped of his CPPCC seat. I do hope you're right though. A huge split in the establishment camp would be a delight. iceaim fucked around with this message at 17:03 on Oct 28, 2014 |
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Oct 28, 2014 16:57
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A staggering blow for Mr. Tien. Losing his seat on the CPPCC means he will no longer be able to introduce legislation or affect government policy in China!!
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Oct 28, 2014 17:04
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Holy poo poo, I can't believe the HKCPPCC is being that loving transparently bootlicky. I mean it's obvious to everyone who they are, but kicking a guy out the second he steps even slightly out of line is really awful. I always thought James Tien was pretty terrible. He represents my district and I walk by his neighborhood office every day (he's literally never there. Someone stores those water cooler jugs in it). His posters are often slashed, but I haven't seen anyone draw 共匪 (Communist bandit) on his face like they do with  DR Elizabeth Quat PhD and the other DAB politicians. Him actually standing up to the establishment gives me a bit of respect for him. But his posters still say "oppose Occupy Central" and their fake line about supporting democracy by which they mean "accept the NPC's reform package no questions asked." Fall Sick and Die posted:A staggering blow for Mr. Tien. Losing his seat on the CPPCC means he will no longer be able to introduce legislation or affect government policy in China!! I've often heard that it comes with lots of cash or perks or something. Like there's a reason people really appreciate getting to be on the HK delegation of the CPPCC, but I've never seen it spelled out exactly what it is.
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Oct 28, 2014 17:16
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