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Oh boy, some kid can't cross into China. News from schloarism, translation from reddit live https://www.facebook.com/Scholarism/posts/857080460991028 quote:Today [November 7th 2014] a student was refused entry at the Shenzhen border. The student has returned safely. Poor guy. I walked through the customs border with a yellow ribbon tied to my bag. With words "SUPPORT UMBRELLA", but nobody cares  I'm too unimportant and resort to posting on foreign influenced mediaPyramid Scheme posted:Hemlock has made it clear on his wonderful blog he works for one of the second or third tier oligarch families as their pet gweilo, along with Mrs Fang the hunter-killer lady and the Stanleys from the mailroom. Mailroom? But elevator chat never happens in Hong Kong because everyone loves eavesdropping. Dang, I live in one of Lee Shau Kee's apartment block and I never ever get to see him in the elevator because all his private guards surround him and hog the elevator with his gently caress you im the boss masterkey caberham fucked around with this message at 04:24 on Nov 8, 2014 |
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Nov 8, 2014 04:19
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Daduzi posted:Methinks the Beeb is a wee bit pissed at being blocked in China: Good Read, But I think China collapsing environment will be what stops the economic train it is riding.
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Nov 8, 2014 06:49
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oohhboy posted:Good Read, But I think China collapsing environment will be what stops the economic train it is riding. When has that ever happened in the modern era?
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Nov 8, 2014 17:50
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Yeah it's more likely to be the inefficiency of the quasi-state-planning China seems unable and/or unwilling to end. The environmental implosion itself doesn't provide for the 'perpetual economic depression' aspect of a cyberpunk hellscape
icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 18:38 on Nov 8, 2014 |
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Nov 8, 2014 18:34
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Daduzi posted:Methinks the Beeb is a wee bit pissed at being blocked in China: So let's say Xi Jinping "has the balls to stand up for [Russia]" and uses China's foreign currency serves to prop up a falling ruble. How long can China continue to do so, and what are the likely impacts on China's SOEs?
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Nov 8, 2014 18:43
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I still think China is going to let Russia fall hard enough they can step in and pick up a few parts.
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Nov 8, 2014 19:02
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Warcabbit posted:I still think China is going to let Russia fall hard enough they can step in and pick up a few parts. http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL6N0SY0LR20141108?irpc=932 quote:MOSCOW, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Russian state development bank Vnesheconombank plans to open a new branch in Hong Kong, where energy giants Gazprom, Lukoil and Rosneft are also looking to potentially list, Russia's Economy Ministry said on Saturday. Why let them fail? Just purchase everything at firesale. Its like the Gulf States and Egypt: Once you're in for $400 billion, you've got to stay in for $2 trillion.
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Nov 8, 2014 19:18
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So what happens when China also starts to fail?
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Nov 8, 2014 19:37
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My Imaginary GF posted:So let's say Xi Jinping "has the balls to stand up for [Russia]" and uses China's foreign currency serves to prop up a falling ruble. They don'y need to spend alot, just enough to keep Czar Putin in the drivers seat to keep stick it to the West. In fact Putin will keep getting himself reelected regardless, China just need o spend enough to make the Russikies think China is friendlier to Russia than the West.
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Nov 8, 2014 19:52
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Fojar38 posted:So what happens when China also starts to fail? If the only way for the CCP to stay in power is to redirect the anger outward, conflict, since I don't see the CCP letting any reform happen willingly that might put their positions in jeopardy. So it depends on how bad the fall is, or how the fall can be contained (or not).
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Nov 8, 2014 19:55
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Fojar38 posted:So what happens when China also starts to fail? Yes, what happens depends quite a bit on when China really begins to fail. When, now that's the large question. Russia has taken a $400 billion infusion of capital from China in May, and is set to cinche another $400 billion infusion. How much can China sink into Russia, for how long, before China starts to fail? Well, given that these infusions are directly related to energy developments that have occured as a response to US sanctions, and that Russia may need another $400 billion infusion before January, and China won't see cheap energy until well into 2015, I do wonder at what point the Chinese currency begins to falter or China begins to have a liquidity crisis. Pervis posted:If the only way for the CCP to stay in power is to redirect the anger outward, conflict, since I don't see the CCP letting any reform happen willingly that might put their positions in jeopardy. So it depends on how bad the fall is, or how the fall can be contained (or not). That's my view, and why I have such a hardline stance on Spratley Reef issues.
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Nov 8, 2014 19:57
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Pervis posted:If the only way for the CCP to stay in power is to redirect the anger outward, conflict, since I don't see the CCP letting any reform happen willingly that might put their positions in jeopardy. So it depends on how bad the fall is, or how the fall can be contained (or not). And if that's actually the only way for the CCP to stay in power.
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Nov 8, 2014 20:33
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Do any of you follow Micahel Pettis' blog? When I first read The Great Rebalancing, I was pessimistic, but his recent posts have been more optimistic. Supposedly, Xi Jinping is still consolidating his power before he can finally start the politically painful process of reform. Predictions are pretty much meaningless, but he still threw out his own odds of 2/3 that China succeeds (albeit at stabilizing with a healthier 3-4% GDP per capita by the decade). Supposedly, this would not be a huge crisis as long as employment and household income is ok.
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Nov 9, 2014 00:35
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Snipee posted:Supposedly, this would not be a huge crisis as long as employment and household income is ok. I've got some bad news.
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Nov 9, 2014 00:40
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Fojar38 posted:I've got some bad news. Beijing has announced plans to introduce competitive salaries for all public employees, with tiered grading system which offers wages comparable to Western standards? I'm not sure doing that wouldn't cause riots by everyone. And until you implement competitive salaries for your civil servants, you won't be able to reform your system.
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Nov 9, 2014 00:45
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More structurally, the state owned industries will eventually have to be forced to face market competition without massive subsidies, the hukuo system (household registration) needs to be phased out, and financial repression (artificially low interest rates for depositors) would have to be reversed. And so on. All poo poo that the CCP knows that they need to eventually do and talks about doing but have not been actually committed to yet.
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Nov 9, 2014 00:57
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Snipee posted:Do any of you follow Micahel Pettis' blog? When I first read The Great Rebalancing, I was pessimistic, but his recent posts have been more optimistic. Supposedly, Xi Jinping is still consolidating his power before he can finally start the politically painful process of reform. President Obama is going to implement universal healthcare any minute now, this is third dimensional chess... just needed to wit for the midterms of his second term to finish
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Nov 9, 2014 01:16
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Snipee posted:financial repression (artificially low interest rates for depositors) would have to be reversed. I think this is an issue that extends beyond China.
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Nov 9, 2014 01:56
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McDowell posted:I think this is an issue that extends beyond China. Not really, no; other nations' low rates are due to taxation policies and foreign demand for their currency. China's capital controls and pegged rates prevent economic reforms from being implemented.
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Nov 9, 2014 02:00
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Snipee posted:More structurally, the state owned industries will eventually have to be forced to face market competition without massive subsidies, the hukuo system (household registration) needs to be phased out, and financial repression (artificially low interest rates for depositors) would have to be reversed. And so on. All poo poo that the CCP knows that they need to eventually do and talks about doing but have not been actually committed to yet. I don't think they actually do though. I don't know enough about the 'social contract' of the CCP guaranteeing growth, but many, many, many countries have gone more or less indefinitely with more or less authoritarian/corrupt governments running heavily inefficient, state-involved economies with basically no growth. It's most third world countries, in fact, including lots of South America, the Middle East, India, and SE Asia. The only thing that dragged countries out of that pattern was the IMF after things got bad enough for them to need loans, but China's big enough there's basically no entity with enough leverage to force reform. Reform is necessary to ensure growth, it's not necessary to keep the CCP in power, unless you think China is a special snowflake of some kind. Illiberal governments stay in power by providing guaranteed employment and economic stability. The employment and stable conditions might be complete garbage, but as long as they're there and people aren't starving the government will retain enough support to stay in power. There's no mechanism here by which liberalizing reforms are forced. At 'best', if things get bad and people start starving, you get a change of illiberal government, not reform icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 02:55 on Nov 9, 2014 |
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Nov 9, 2014 02:25
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But what happens if America starts to fail before China starts to fail?
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Nov 9, 2014 03:58
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icantfindaname posted:At 'best', if things get bad and people start starving, you get a change of illiberal government, not reform When people start starving, you get a civil war as folks attempt to seize power and become the new top dog. Smelling weakness begets weakness, so it either takes the form of a mass purge or armed struggle. Arglebargle III posted:But what happens if America starts to fail before China starts to fail? Fail how? However America 'fails,' we have a process for peaceful transition of power.
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Nov 9, 2014 04:05
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Arglebargle III posted:But what happens if America starts to fail before China starts to fail? It won't.
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Nov 9, 2014 04:10
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Fojar38 posted:It won't.
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Nov 9, 2014 04:20
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Whether America fails is irrelevant. China would still have every one of its problems, even if America disappeared tomorrow. America's failure would not benefit the Chinese people in any way, nor would China's failure the American people. The only people for whom this is a competition are the CCP and Chinese nationalists who get to gloat if they win. But, they'll probably say they won regardless of what actually happens, so that's irrelevant too.
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Nov 9, 2014 04:31
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icantfindaname posted:Whether America fails is irrelevant. China would still have every one of its problems, even if America disappeared tomorrow. America's failure would not benefit the Chinese people in any way, nor would China's failure the American people. The only people for whom this is a competition are the CCP and Chinese nationalists who get to gloat if they win. But, they'll probably say they won regardless of what actually happens, so that's irrelevant too. So what about Russia? What does it mean for the Chinese/American national competition if Russia starts to fail first?
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Nov 9, 2014 04:37
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What do we mean by "failure", in the context of America, exactly? I'm not aware of any particular processes in the US that would create a situation parallel to the one being envisioned for China or Russia here.
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Nov 9, 2014 04:39
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What if Mao was gay and black?
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Nov 9, 2014 04:40
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Grand Fromage posted:What if Mao was gay and black? Correct thought is correct thought, man.
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Nov 9, 2014 04:48
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Discendo Vox posted:What do we mean by "failure", in the context of America, exactly? I'm not aware of any particular processes in the US that would create a situation parallel to the one being envisioned for China or Russia here. Especially when you consider America's history of shrugging off wars and depressions combined with its advantageous demographic and geographic position.
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Nov 9, 2014 04:50
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Discendo Vox posted:What do we mean by "failure"  You guys have gone on for a page talking about fail without addressing what any of you mean by it.
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Nov 9, 2014 04:57
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Arglebargle III posted:You guys have gone on for a page talking about fail without addressing what any of you mean by it. There's been a fair amount of specific discussion of the multiple ways the Chinese economy is nearing a point of collapse.
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Nov 9, 2014 04:59
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China's economy stops growing. Russia's already failed by that measure, and has been failing since 1918, but whatever. China's growth is going to flatline unless liberal reforms are made, and they won't be made
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Nov 9, 2014 05:00
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Oh okay thanks! By all means continue then.
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Nov 9, 2014 05:09
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Snipee posted:Do any of you follow Micahel Pettis' blog? When I first read The Great Rebalancing, I was pessimistic, but his recent posts have been more optimistic. Supposedly, Xi Jinping is still consolidating his power before he can finally start the politically painful process of reform. Predictions are pretty much meaningless, but he still threw out his own odds of 2/3 that China succeeds (albeit at stabilizing with a healthier 3-4% GDP per capita by the decade). Supposedly, this would not be a huge crisis as long as employment and household income is ok. I read the Great Rebalancing. I think his issue is he keep arguing from the point of the view for the well being of global economy. He is not looking at the economy from the POV of Beijing. Beijing doesn't care about a potential new financial crisis if after the crisis China can recover sooner than the rest of the developed countries. What Beijing cares about is having a financial competitive advantage in the global system.
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Nov 9, 2014 05:18
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So China's going to have a civil war due to the imminent slowing of economic growth from crazy high levels to just above average?
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Nov 9, 2014 05:19
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Fall Sick and Die posted:President Obama is going to implement universal healthcare any minute now, this is third dimensional chess... just needed to wit for the midterms of his second term to finish Very true. I was recently in Guangzhou, and many people I talked to were equally doubtful that meaningful change might happen unless the political system changes (including family/friends in upper class positions of power who might be more aware of domestic politics). Corrupt officials are getting picked off left and right though. Fear certainly does strengthen Xi's hand if he wants reform. In contrast, promises of bipartisanship showed weakness, and Obama kept playing for optimistic compromises with the Republicans until the 11th hour. In less words, Xi is relatively waxing in strength as time goes on while Obama continued waning in strength after the euphoria of the 08 election wore off. e: quote:I read the Great Rebalancing. I think his issue is he keep arguing from the point of the view for the well being of global economy. He is not looking at the economy from the POV of Beijing. Beijing doesn't care about a potential new financial crisis if after the crisis China can recover sooner than the rest of the developed countries. What Beijing cares about is having a financial competitive advantage in the global system. Michael Pettis is a professor in Peking University. He has talked about how many of the issues he raised about the sustainability of the Chinese economic model were already being debated by Chinese policymakers and academics before he wrote his book. The problem is that the US is already rebalancing from our end (and has been for some time now), so this means that it is even harder for Beijing to try and externalize the costs of reform on the rest of the world. Due to the financial crisis, Beijing is being forced to re-balance much faster than the CCP originally expected. Snipee fucked around with this message at 05:31 on Nov 9, 2014 |
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Nov 9, 2014 05:24
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fart simpson posted:So China's going to have a civil war due to the imminent slowing of economic growth from crazy high levels to just above average? China's having a purge already due to its slowing economic growth. Unless you feel Xi Jinping's anti-corrupt campaign is anything approaching a genuine attempt at reform and not a move to consolidate his power base, in which case I'd call you hopelessly naive.
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Nov 9, 2014 05:32
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My Imaginary GF posted:China's having a purge already due to its slowing economic growth. Unless you feel Xi Jinping's anti-corrupt campaign is anything approaching a genuine attempt at reform and not a move to consolidate his power base, in which case I'd call you hopelessly naive. Why cant it be both?
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Nov 9, 2014 05:51
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His power base is basically Ave! Bossa Nova, similis bossa seneca! from top to bottom. They would do very unpleasant things if there was even a hint of serious reform to the current system.
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Nov 9, 2014 05:58
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