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Whiskey Sours
Jan 25, 2014

Weather proof.


http://www.fin.gov.bc.ca/tbs/F&Ereview13.pdf (page 12)

That puts FIRE and construction at 31.2% of BC's economy.

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Franks Happy Place
Mar 15, 2011

It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

HookShot posted:

I think there are approximately 50k registered realtors in Canada, but I honestly can't remember where I read that number so it might be way off.

The Toronto real estate board alone has over 40,000 members. :ssh:

HookShot
Dec 26, 2005

Franks Happy Place posted:

The Toronto real estate board alone has over 40,000 members. :ssh:

Well there we go, that's what I get for having a poo poo memory.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Study+puts+grim+numbers+rental+crisis/10387971/story.html

quote:

A growing number of B.C. renters are facing a crisis of affordability and paying too much of their income on scarce, expensive rental accommodation, according to new statistics to be released today by the B.C. Non-Profit Housing Association.

Approximately 45 per cent of renters are paying more than the recommended maximum of 30 per cent of their gross income on rent, the housing association says.

Twenty-three per cent of people are spending more than half their income on rent, a level that leaves renters at risk of not being able to afford other basic living needs, said Tony Roy, the association's executive director.

"That group of people, it doesn't matter what income group you are in, are at risk of all kinds of other issues, from bankruptcy to homelessness to crime," said Roy.

The statistics are part of a new interactive rental housing index map that the housing association will launch today at bcnpha.ca. It's the first comprehensive look at the costs facing B.C.'s 517,430 renters, a quarter of whom earn less than $19,500 a year.

The interactive map crunches half a billion pieces of federal data into a clickable format that shows the average rent, affordability, income gap, overcrowding and unit shortage for B.C. communities and regional districts. Each town and city is profiled and scored.

"There's lots of data out there on home ownership, but this is the first major study which has looked specifically at the incomes of renters as well as how much they are spending on rent for different size suites," said Roy. "This is a chance for British Columbia to look at the province through the eyes of renters.

"There's a reason why housing affordability is the top issue in the municipal elections; it's because the rents are getting very high and the supply just isn't there."

West Vancouver has one of the highest proportions of people spending more than 50 per cent of their income on rent, and also the highest average rent at $1,555 a month, because of high land values and low rental stock, said Roy.

Smaller communities are also affected, including rural locations and those with high populations of immigrants, temporary workers, students and seniors, he said. Few private developers build rental housing, instead opting for higherend condos they can sell on the open market to realize a more immediate profit, said Roy.

The supply of rental units isn't keeping up with the growing demand, and the problem is compounded by the end of federal government rental unit subsidies that have existed on some properties for the past 10 to 30 years but are coming to a close and won't be renewed, said Roy.

"We're hearing from private sector landlords that they don't have enough incentives

to build," he said. "We're hearing from social housing providers that there's no new money coming into the system to build social housing, and we're hearing from municipalities, who are all going through an election, that say they don't have a lot of data out there to understand how many renters they have in their communities, what the incomes are of those renters, and how many more units or bedrooms they need to build or zone or plan for."

The non-profit housing association used a $125,000 grant from Vancity credit union to help create the online map.

The association estimates B.C. needs an additional 150,000 to 200,000 units of rental housing by 2036, with as many as 65,000 of those units requiring some sort of support, subsidy or supplement to make them affordable for renters.

NDP housing critic David Eby said the B.C. government has to find ways to encourage the construction of rental housing, because increased subsidies are wasted in a market where a rental shortage keeps driving up the rental rates.

look at all these adorable motherfuckers talking like housing affordability has nothing to do with ease of credit in the housing market

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

it's too bad all that financial energy was not put into building more rentals instead of the condo bubble.

melon cat
Jan 21, 2010

Nap Ghost

Cultural Imperial posted:



i hope all y'all motherfuckers go bankrupt
Even though we're sitting at the edge of a bubble market, I really don't think that this is a taste of things to come. All of the towns listed in that snippet are all smaller cities/towns that people really aren't drawn to, in the first place. They're all just bedroom communities.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Based upon sum total effort exerted by everyone in this loving province to ruin the environment for the same of resource striking, why has it not occurred to anyone that it would be far more profitable and less of an impact on co2 emissions and pollution of the countryside to just turn Vancouver into a north american Luxembourg servicing the public making GBS threads mainlanders? gently caress high tech, gently caress LNG and gently caress oil. Let's just lets just give up this pantomime of building an economy based on anything and just resort to shady banking.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

melon cat posted:

Even though we're sitting at the edge of a bubble market, I really don't think that this is a taste of things to come. All of the towns listed in that snippet are all smaller cities/towns that people really aren't drawn to, in the first place. They're all just bedroom communities.

Agree. I'm less and less convinced the cities are going to see any meaningful change outside of a major macro event.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
winnipeg

ottawa

e: actually, what the gently caress am i thinking, those are worthless cities by any global measure. yes, SJWs, loving beta cities

Dr. Stab
Sep 12, 2010
👨🏻‍⚕️🩺🔪🙀😱🙀
You can tell that vancouver is the best city. Why else would houses be so expensive?

sat on my keys!
Oct 2, 2014

Cultural Imperial posted:

winnipeg

ottawa

e: actually, what the gently caress am i thinking, those are worthless cities by any global measure. yes, SJWs, loving beta cities

Ottawa! Come for the cultural and historic features worse in every way than Montreal's, stay for the crippling depression.

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



Whiskey Sours posted:


http://www.fin.gov.bc.ca/tbs/F&Ereview13.pdf (page 12)

That puts FIRE and construction at 31.2% of BC's economy.

Wow, that is brutal. I would have thought finance would be a bigger chunk of FIRE than that.

Isn't it ironic that construction, real estate and rentals make up 25% of the economy and there's still a dire housing shortage. GO FIGURE.

triplexpac
Mar 24, 2007

Suck it
Two tears in a bucket
And then another thing
I'm not the one they'll try their luck with
Hit hard like brass knuckles
See your face through the turnbuckle dude
I got no love for you

Just curious, are there any easily accessible charts like this for other countries? For comparison.

Martian Manfucker
Dec 27, 2012

misandry is real
My job is tied up in home construction in the GTA so please, for my sake, keep buy buy buying.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

triplexpac posted:

Just curious, are there any easily accessible charts like this for other countries? For comparison.

Without wanting to be a total jerk, it really isn't that hard to google something like '[country] gdp by sector'

Pervis
Jan 12, 2001

YOSPOS

melon cat posted:

Even though we're sitting at the edge of a bubble market, I really don't think that this is a taste of things to come. All of the towns listed in that snippet are all smaller cities/towns that people really aren't drawn to, in the first place. They're all just bedroom communities.

For the record, that's how the bubble popped down here - prices started dropping in outlying areas and then as the economy slowed it started accelerating as the game of musical chairs finally stopped, rolling inwards. The people with no savings and no way of leveraging further credit dropped first, but eventually, like a massive sinking ship, the ship sucked in everything else, dropping prices by like 50+%. It took a year or two for the wave to hit some of the more rich areas, but it still did (because even those were only up there because of speculation and easy credit, and the real easy credit died).

Worse though, was that rent did not go down (and in fact got harder in some areas) during all of this, as lots of houses sat empty, both because banks didn't want to saturate the market, and because the legal process takes time, so when you have a suddenly large influx of people who can no longer own a home in the current situation, they have to rent (or move, or whatever), but the rental supply didn't increase by much by comparison.

At least your mortgages aren't denominated in a foreign currency, so maybe you can inflate your way over the next 5-10 years back to this point. Although oil is kinda a foreign currency I guess..

triplexpac
Mar 24, 2007

Suck it
Two tears in a bucket
And then another thing
I'm not the one they'll try their luck with
Hit hard like brass knuckles
See your face through the turnbuckle dude
I got no love for you

LemonDrizzle posted:

Without wanting to be a total jerk, it really isn't that hard to google something like '[country] gdp by sector'

True enough!

Here's another question: why were mortgage rates so high in the 80s? Ratehub has the rates being as high as 20% back then, seems crazy.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

triplexpac posted:

True enough!

Here's another question: why were mortgage rates so high in the 80s? Ratehub has the rates being as high as 20% back then, seems crazy.

Because the general level of inflation was high back then.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

Lexicon posted:

Because the general level of inflation was high back then.

but then monetarism won the day and we all lived happily ever after with stable prices, independent central banks, and sensible inflation targets

three cheers for monetarism!

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

You know what's really unfair? Property owners only getting 1 vote in elections. Shouldn't they have more votes based on their properties? What if you live in Saanich but own a rental condo in Victoria, shouldn't you be entitled to a vote because money? What if you live in Langford but own a chain of stores in Victoria, Saanich, Langford, and Oak bay? You should obviously get 4 votes since you have a connection to each city.

This is currently a serious discussion going on on the right/libertarian Victoria BC forums I read. It's absolutely appalling that a bunch of left wing renters and retired people can keep voting in left wing candidates when most of the city's business owners would vote right wing but can't just because they don't live in the city. What hosed up world do we live in where some "student" who only RENTS in Victoria gets to vote but a rich person who lives in Uplands but owns an office in Victoria is limited to just 1 vote. This is why things are bad!

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.
^ Holy gently caress are you serious? Can you link us.

This country...

Lain Iwakura
Aug 5, 2004

The body exists only to verify one's own existence.

Taco Defender

Baronjutter posted:

You know what's really unfair? Property owners only getting 1 vote in elections. Shouldn't they have more votes based on their properties? What if you live in Saanich but own a rental condo in Victoria, shouldn't you be entitled to a vote because money? What if you live in Langford but own a chain of stores in Victoria, Saanich, Langford, and Oak bay? You should obviously get 4 votes since you have a connection to each city.

This is currently a serious discussion going on on the right/libertarian Victoria BC forums I read. It's absolutely appalling that a bunch of left wing renters and retired people can keep voting in left wing candidates when most of the city's business owners would vote right wing but can't just because they don't live in the city. What hosed up world do we live in where some "student" who only RENTS in Victoria gets to vote but a rich person who lives in Uplands but owns an office in Victoria is limited to just 1 vote. This is why things are bad!

Please share the source.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

http://vibrantvictoria.ca/forum/index.php?/topic/5128-election-results/page-15
This site is actually pretty good for staying up to date on victoria development and politics but it slants hard to the right and libertarian. Unregulated development for all, social services for none. Also if you even hint at not thinking real estate prices are going to double every year forever you'll be laughed out as a jealous leftist angry at other people's wise investments. They even have a special forum where official partnered REALTORS(r) can give sound trusted financial advice to people with questions about real estate.

The owners of the site regularly "partner" with developers and local businesses to basically shill for them. They started off as a fairly honest and non-partisan group of people who were sick of NIMBY's that didn't even live or work downtown showing up to shout down every single downtown project proposed, but "lets get some density downtown" became "Lets unquestionably worship developers and job creators and do paid work supporting their projects".

Basically a great place to find out about local construction and politics and what bitter libertarian "businessmen" think about every subject. Victoria is of course a pretty left wing city, so its small community of randian supermen is extremely bitter about having to live in such an "anti-business" city and clearly they'd all be rich by now if it wasn't for that NANNY STATE. (They have a specific nanny-state thread on top of every thread derailing to something about THE LEFT or SOCIALISTS)

Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 17:48 on Nov 18, 2014

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
A few seconds of browsing lead me to this glorious piece of hilarity

quote:

Emanuel Arruda, who in November was ordered by the court to be removed from League’s senior management along with chief executive and co-founder Adam Gant, has penned a letter to some of the 4,200 investors who could lose as much as $370 million when League completes restructuring under the Companies Creditors Arrangement Act.

In his lengthy letter obtained by the Times Colonist, Arruda said he is in the same boat as investors and, in fact, has been “rendered effectively homeless” by the process. Arruda said he also used two personal lines of credit to borrow $150,000 to invest in League, and used a $45,000 bank overdraft to lend money to League when it faced financial difficulty.

quote:

PricewaterhouseCoopers, the monitor overseeing League’s restructuring, said the investor group is expected to lose most if not all of the $370 million they invested. The monitor said League owes $186 million in mortgages to 26 secured lenders and has 460 trade creditors, considered unsecured lenders, owed $19.5 million.

Hahahaha, holy gently caress. These guys were OD'ing on the Kool-Aid.

quote:

“I handed the keys to my apartment over to a tenant who will pay my mortgage for at least the next year. Rendered effectively homeless, I am now staying in a friend’s spare room,” he said.

quote:

The company is trying to sell 11 of its 22 properties by June 28 to satisfy secured lenders who are owed $186 million. Total sales are not expected to fetch that price.

:allears:

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.
Love the comment on the first page: In Victoria on a good day you might get 40% willing to vote anything other than hard left.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

That project was amazing. Some non-coolaid-drinking people on that forum were calling it the gently caress out from the beginning but you don't call out developers or real estate financing on Vibrant Victoria so some people got banned and they had to implement a strict policy of not talking about League’s finances or if their suburban condo tower and shopping centre was a good investment or not. A lot of that was driven by League threatening to sue Vibrant Victoria or something for spreading rumours that could hurt its business.

That project had such weird loving finances and so many red-flags. They proposed to build this huge complex of 20ish story skyscrapers in the middle of nowhere of suburban/rural Victoria (Colwood actually, not even Victoria) yet all the branding was about how URBAN the project is, they even had the gaul to name it "Capital City Centre" despite it not being in the capital and about as far as the centre as you could get. I don't know if they website is still up but it was all about urban living and had pictures of downtown Victoria and would refer to downtown as "minutes away".

They had this system where they'd take pre-sales without any down payment but you signed away a certain percentage of your future gains. So they'd supply your downpayment or secure your mortgage but in exchange you'd have to give them like 25% of the increase in value of the condo over the next X years, or something crazy like that. I remember a lot of poeple thinking it was a horrible idea, not because it was a huge red flag, but because they wanted to keep all the value their condo was obviously going to generate. I mean when they sell their condo at the rear end edge of the city for double what they paid for it in 5 years why the hell should League get 10% ???

My company did a bunch of work for the project but we were smart enough to get paid up front.

Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 18:18 on Nov 18, 2014

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.
Speaking of development in Victoria - is there any chance that eyesore of a hole in the ground beside Uptown (already an eyesore in and of itself) will ever get developed? I assume that's the plan, but it's been sitting empty for quite a long time at this point...

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

eXXon posted:

Wow, that is brutal. I would have thought finance would be a bigger chunk of FIRE than that.

Isn't it ironic that construction, real estate and rentals make up 25% of the economy and there's still a dire housing shortage. GO FIGURE.

Not even sure you can characterize it as a housing shortage. The housing is obviously there, it is just sitting empty and idle since speculation has removed the need for it.

In Vancouver completed units have outpaced population growth by several percent for years now. Seems to be a much smaller version of the empty cities that China is building, it is just that some % of every condo building is just empty.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

ocrumsprug posted:

In Vancouver completed units have outpaced population growth by several percent for years now. Seems to be a much smaller version of the empty cities that China is building, it is just that some % of every condo building is just empty.
So you're going to get cheap condos for all when the crash hits and/or a plague of badly maintained skyslums. One of the two.

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

LemonDrizzle posted:

So you're going to get cheap condos for all when the crash hits and/or a plague of badly maintained skyslums. One of the two.

Oh, I think we will get both.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

LemonDrizzle posted:

So you're going to get cheap condos for all when the crash hits and/or a plague of badly maintained skyslums. One of the two.

Part of me loves the boom and bubble because it's greedy idiots subsidizing future affordable housing.

Brannock
Feb 9, 2006

by exmarx
Fallen Rib

Baronjutter posted:

Part of me loves the boom and bubble because it's greedy idiots subsidizing future affordable housing.

Given how shoddy the construction is on a lot of those buildings, I'm not so sure that they'll be affordable for the low-income crowd. Is the government going to be on the hook for maintenance?

Precambrian Video Games
Aug 19, 2002



ocrumsprug posted:

Not even sure you can characterize it as a housing shortage. The housing is obviously there, it is just sitting empty and idle since speculation has removed the need for it.

In Vancouver completed units have outpaced population growth by several percent for years now. Seems to be a much smaller version of the empty cities that China is building, it is just that some % of every condo building is just empty.

Do you mean in Vancouver proper or the GVR? I would think that a lot of people living in Richmond/Burnaby/Surrey would move closer to Vancouver if they could.

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

eXXon posted:

Do you mean in Vancouver proper or the GVR? I would think that a lot of people living in Richmond/Burnaby/Surrey would move closer to Vancouver if they could.

I guess that just leads to the question if it's supply or price that's keeping them out of the city. Hanging out downtown at night you need a lot of mostly dark towers. Not a scientific metric but most of the downtown condos feel very empty and desolate. I guess part of that is just their architecture and site planning and strict bylaws against people having any signs of individuality visible from the street.

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

eXXon posted:

Do you mean in Vancouver proper or the GVR? I would think that a lot of people living in Richmond/Burnaby/Surrey would move closer to Vancouver if they could.

I honestly don't recall if it was for Vancouver or the GVRD, but even if we assume Vancouver, it isn't like Burnaby or Richmond aren't building like crazy too. Pencil me in for would rather live in Vancouver, but it is stupid house prices keeping me out not a shortage of housing. (If you're a squatter it is probably a panacea on the West-side at the moment with all the empty homes.)

However developers sure are happy with this "shortage" as it gives them leverage when they come to negotiating with the municipality and nets a premium on the sale. And since some percentage of those sales might never see an occupant, the shortage never decreases.

I wish I understood how all that property can sit empty without people going bankrupt left and right.

Baronjutter posted:

I guess that just leads to the question if it's supply or price that's keeping them out of the city. Hanging out downtown at night you need a lot of mostly dark towers as the owners are out enjoying the nightlife they richly deserve for being an astute investor in a downtown condo.

fyp

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

Brannock posted:

Given how shoddy the construction is on a lot of those buildings, I'm not so sure that they'll be affordable for the low-income crowd. Is the government going to be on the hook for maintenance?

The government bailed out the leaky condo buildings for something like 3/4's of a Billion, or an actual Billion, so the answer is yes.

Lead out in cuffs
Sep 18, 2012

"That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."




triplexpac posted:

True enough!

Here's another question: why were mortgage rates so high in the 80s? Ratehub has the rates being as high as 20% back then, seems crazy.

Inflation targeting? Inflation was averaging something like 10% per year for most of the 70s.

JawKnee
Mar 24, 2007





You'll take the ride to leave this town along that yellow line

Baronjutter posted:

Part of me loves the boom and bubble because it's greedy idiots subsidizing future affordable housing.

it seems much more likely it's going to be greedy idiots one step up the ladder fleecing other greedy idiots, ruining the economy, leaving a bunch of shoddy run-down and useless-in-30-years overpriced ugly and rent-unfriendly condos that cost more to tear down and replace than they do to just leave there

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

JawKnee posted:

it seems much more likely it's going to be greedy idiots one step up the ladder fleecing other greedy idiots, ruining the economy, leaving a bunch of shoddy run-down and useless-in-30-years overpriced ugly and rent-unfriendly condos that cost more to tear down and replace than they do to just leave there

Just look at the 1980s condo bubble in Vancouver, the government ended up forking over millions of dollars to either demo partially finished eye sore condos or gave low interest loans to help repairs condos which had shoddy construction.

A sane housing policy would focus on higher direct rental supply, more apartments not more home ownership.

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namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
I didn't know the government paid to demolish half built condos. That's awesome. I've been telling my friends that the coming crash is going to be glorious because the best place on earth is going to be full of half built husks of buildings blighting its skyline.

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