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Kafka Esq.
Jan 1, 2005

"If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)

Ikantski posted:

We already start living inside other human beings.
:vince:

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namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
I call dibs on the vacuous corpse of pt6a. I'm willing to rent out his rear end in a top hat as a microsuite to a lucky goon because I'm so generous and I believe in social housing

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

Lead out in cuffs posted:

I'll just put this here if you feel like trying to do something about that.

E: Though in some ways, it's already set transit progress back. Basically the province has said that there will be no new transit funding except by referendum. Now all they have to do is sit on their hands and then blame the Metro Vancouver mayors for not being organised enough. Still, if you feel strongly about it, it's worth getting involved with the campaign (especially once it kicks into gear).

Why are they not doing the same for highways and roads and car infrastructure? When do I get to vote on Langford not being allowed to build any more roads?

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Baronjutter posted:

Why are they not doing the same for highways and roads and car infrastructure? When do I get to vote on Langford not being allowed to build any more roads?

Because: see my comment above about natural order of things, silly

cowboy beepboop
Feb 24, 2001

Small Australian diversion:
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/home-truths-high-prices-are-here-to-stay-20141125-11t753.html

You see, it's different here! All you naysayers don't understand the uniquely Australian attitude to home ownership! Our houses are higher quality!

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
lol

density

http://www.straight.com/news/777026/future-may-be-density-metro-vancouver-housing-corporation

stfu

tsa
Feb 3, 2014

my stepdads beer posted:

Small Australian diversion:
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/home-truths-high-prices-are-here-to-stay-20141125-11t753.html

You see, it's different here! All you naysayers don't understand the uniquely Australian attitude to home ownership! Our houses are higher quality!


quote:

Eslake's fourth point is that, thanks partly to the resources boom and two decades without a severe recession, Australians are richer than we were, even relative to other high-income countries. Guess what? Better-off people tend to devote a higher proportion of their income to their housing.

It's hard to find the dumbest thing from the article.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

tsa posted:

It's hard to find the dumbest thing from the article.

Yea basically a country with less GNP than Texas or California deserves ultra-expensive housing costs.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.
As stupid as that article is, it does strike me as plausible that there exist countries where the culture (I use term loosely), national consciousness, and realpolitik conspire to guarantee expensive housing now and in perpetuity.

Australia and Canada may well be two such countries.

I've made this somewhat silly point before - but Canada as a nation has arrived at the reality where cheese is an ultra-expensive product in comparison to other nations, and for no real good reason*. Yet this is the situation, everyone more or less accepts it, and it is unlikely to ever change. What if housing is the same?

*Yes, yes - supply management. Housing has its own management of supply in the form of NIMBY zoning laws, etc

on the left
Nov 2, 2013
I Am A Gigantic Piece Of Shit

Literally poo from a diseased human butt

Lexicon posted:

As stupid as that article is, it does strike me as plausible that there exist countries where the culture (I use term loosely), national consciousness, and realpolitik conspire to guarantee expensive housing now and in perpetuity.

At some point, the housing market matures. Manhattan is a great example of this. While housing is expensive in Manhattan, it's inline with incomes and rental yields show that housing is appropriately priced.

Housing can be expensive, but you won't have long term increases of prices into the millions while people only make 50k a year.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

on the left posted:

At some point, the housing market matures. Manhattan is a great example of this. While housing is expensive in Manhattan, it's inline with incomes and rental yields show that housing is appropriately priced.

Housing can be expensive, but you won't have long term increases of prices into the millions while people only make 50k a year.

Yeah, indeed. I should've been clear on that. I don't expect unbridled price growth to continue forever – obviously it can't. But I can imagine a future where Canadian housing is always onerously expensive, even if the growth mediates to zero real increase.

tsa
Feb 3, 2014

Lexicon posted:

Yeah, indeed. I should've been clear on that. I don't expect unbridled price growth to continue forever – obviously it can't. But I can imagine a future where Canadian housing is always onerously expensive, even if the growth mediates to zero real increase.

No, because eventually the speculation fails and then basic supply / demand take over. The only reason prices become onerous in the first place is because of the arfificial demand created by people buying a place with the expectation of selling it shortly thereafter for a profit. This is why once things turn the other direction you see a huge crash instead of a gradual price reduction- once it becomes clear you can't do that the demand evaporates and prices fall in line with the incomes of the residents that live there.

Like on the left said, prices that are permanently out of line with the communities average salaries isn't a thing.

quote:

What if housing is the same?

For lots of obvious reasons, the housing market is nothing like the cheese market.

tsa fucked around with this message at 06:15 on Nov 26, 2014

Rutibex
Sep 9, 2001

by Fluffdaddy
Cheese prices can only go up; they aren't making more cows!

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Rutibex posted:

Cheese prices can only go up; they aren't making more cows!

That is pretty well how it works actually in this country :D

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Rutibex posted:

Cheese prices can only go up; they aren't making more cows!

Tulip prices can only go up, there's only one harvest a year!

triplexpac
Mar 24, 2007

Suck it
Two tears in a bucket
And then another thing
I'm not the one they'll try their luck with
Hit hard like brass knuckles
See your face through the turnbuckle dude
I got no love for you

quote:

Why first-time home buyers are still taking the plunge: Mayers
They are arriving with big down payments, and reducing their risk with five-year mortgages.

Canada’s decade-long housing boom shrank to a three-way race this year with Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver the only markets still showing better-than-average growth.

As we head into 2015, the field has shrunk to two. The collapse of oil prices is denting the Alberta economy, hurting the prospects of those living in its biggest city. The Canadian Real Estate Association said last week that the average price of a Calgary home was 9.5 per cent higher in October than a year ago. But as Robert Kavcic, an economist with BMO Capital Markets, told the Calgary Herald, what’s in the rear view mirror ain’t what lies ahead .

“We’ve seen the highs for home price growth in this city for a while,” Kavcic said.

Should we be worried, too? I don’t think so. Price increases will moderate as interest rates slowly rise, but that’s no cause for panic. Home ownership is about a place to live, so the horizon should be long. While the big gains for condo investors may be over, for those who plan to live and work in Canada’s largest and most desirable city, waiting probably won’t help. If they’re forming households or just tired of paying rent, they might as well pay themselves first. That’s the prime law of personal finance.

This year, Toronto house prices are on track for another record. They were up almost 9 per cent in October compared to a year earlier driven by a shortage of listings. The average home price in the GTA was $587,000.

The driving force as we all know is a rock-bottom interest rate. Mortgage rate aggregator Ratehub.ca was quoting a five-year fixed mortgage Monday through Canwise Financial at 2.69 per cent. If you borrow $400,000, the monthly payment is $1,830 at that rate.

A five-year mortgage at less than 3 per cent offers insurance against a weakening market and time to chip away at the mortgage principal.

An annual study by the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP) confirms that first-time buyers are thinking along those lines. Far from being naïve, they’re aware of the risk and coming in with hefty down payments (as they historically do) and locking in for longer terms. CAAMP says about eight out of 10 borrowers are opting for fixed, longer-term mortgages, typically five years.

CAAMP finds that about half of the Canadians buying homes this year — 210,000 in all — were first-time buyers. Their average down payment was 21 per cent of the home’s cost, providing a cushion against rising rates and falling prices.

The big down payment also allows most buyers to avoid Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. insurance. While that has been pretty consistent for several decades, what’s changing is how young people are coming up with the cash. They’re finding it harder to save enough to keep ahead of price increases, so they’re relying more on gifts and loans from parents and grandparents.

This intergenerational transfer of wealth represents the fact that their parents and grandparents have done well and want to give the kids a leg up, too.

“It’s a reflection of what it costs to get into the market,” says Jim Murphy, president of CAAMP.

So if the kids are buying a $500,000 home and putting $100,000 down to get that 2.69 per cent mortgage, family are chipping in $17,000 of the down payment, either as a gift or a loan. While the loan portion has remained static over the past 25 years, the gift component has been rising.


Real estate lawyer and author Mark Weisleder says $500,000 doesn’t get you anywhere near a detached home in the 416, and for many, condos aren’t the answer. So first-timers are being forced out, trading downtown rents for ownership and more room farther from the core for the same monthly amount.

In town, the hottest properties for this group are homes in the $500,000 to $1 million range, configured “in a way that you can rent them out” — duplexes or triplexes.

As always, homes near transit and good schools command higher prices, though the definition of transit doesn’t necessarily mean the subway, he says. It includes GO trains and major arterial highways like the 407.

In 2015, Weisleder sees more of the same.

“If rates stay low and listings are scarce, then prices will hold.”

I agree. If you’re at the age and stage when it’s time to buy and you can be patient in any downturn, there’s not much to be gained from waiting.

Adam Mayers writes about investing and personal finance. Reach him at amayers@thestar.ca

Where 1st-time buyers get down payments

Savings: 40%
Loans from banks: 27%
RRSPs: 12%
Gifts from parents: 11%
Loans from parents: 7%
Loans from employers: 1%
Other: 2%

Source: CAAMP, Nov. 2014


I have a hard time believing 40% of first-time home buyers are getting their downpayment only from their own savings, and that most of them are putting down 20%.

LemonDrizzle
Mar 28, 2012

neoliberal shithead

on the left posted:

Housing can be expensive, but you won't have long term increases of prices into the millions while people only make 50k a year.
Why not? It's not like those people have to have a whole house...

Also, what would you define as a healthy rental yield and how does that compare to what you get in Toronto or Vancouver at the moment?

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Antifreeze Head posted:

If anyone is interested in just how hosed up the car business can be, have a listen to This American Life - 129 Cars

They send half a dozen reporters to a Jeep dealership in upstate New York and they follow the staff as they try to hit their October 2013 sales target to get a bonus from the manufacturer.

Chiming in to say that I finally got around to listening to this, and it is fantastic. What an industry to be working in.

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
^^^ Isn't a health cap rate for rentals somewhere between 5-10%? Anecdotally, in Vancouver you might be lucky to have a 2% rate and are probably hemorrhaging money monthly. (Vancouver has a funny idea of what "building equity" actually means.)

triplexpac posted:

I have a hard time believing 40% of first-time home buyers are getting their downpayment only from their own savings, and that most of them are putting down 20%.

There is zero chance that first time buyers are putting down 21% on average. I doubt it is even that high for the initial move on up crowd.

melon cat
Jan 21, 2010

Nap Ghost

triplexpac posted:

I have a hard time believing 40% of first-time home buyers are getting their downpayment only from their own savings, and that most of them are putting down 20%.
Definitely. And I'd be more interested in a detailed breakdown on how big of a downpayment that 40% group was making. For example, were most of those people taking out CMHC-insured (5% downpayment), or conventional (>20% downpayment) mortgages? Because anyone can scrape up the minimum 5% downpayment quite easily.

Also- the fact that 27% of respondents got their downpayments from a bank loan astounds me.

sbaldrick
Jul 19, 2006
Driven by Hate

cowofwar posted:

My favorite part about BC is that when the sea to sky highway got too busy and dangerous due to people driving from vancouver to whistler, their solution was to drop billions on a better road rather than to improve the rail service. That line is perfect for rail since everyone starts and ends at the same place and just leaves their car unused for a week. In fact they cancelled the commuter rail service since they couldn't make it work due to issues with the railway not wanting to give track time to non freight.

You can say a lot of things, but the Sea to Sky highway was a deathtrap 30 years ago and I'm sure it was even worse when they rebuilt it. Sometimes you need to build infrastructure you have been putting off since the 80's (the rebuild was originally planned for the 86 Expo).

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Xoidanor posted:

Tulip prices can only go up, there's only one harvest a year!

lol

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

sbaldrick posted:

You can say a lot of things, but the Sea to Sky highway was a deathtrap 30 years ago and I'm sure it was even worse when they rebuilt it. Sometimes you need to build infrastructure you have been putting off since the 80's (the rebuild was originally planned for the 86 Expo).

The entire population of Vancouver island is cut in half north/south by a single dangerous mountain highway that until very recently barely had any funds for upgrades. Finally after tons of deaths and some tanker spills, and the fact that every single accident would cut the island in half for hours, the province graced us with a little money. At the same time a railway runs parallel to this highway serving all the little commuter villages and towns, but it sits abandoned because we have seriously no idea how to plan infrastructure in this province, let alone fund anything outside of Vancouver. A ton of people live way up north of Victoria in some of these places, which used to be proper towns and villages with reasons to exist, but now they mostly serve as "cheap" housing for people so absolutely desperate to own a house they're willing to commute over this horrible highway every day. It's very similar to all the awful little places along the West Coast Express' route, which is a model people here were hoping to copy with the railway. But in this case the Malahat highway really did need upgrading, I just hope maybe one day we can get the railway running again, even if it was just a couple trips each way every day.

The E&N railway was so badly run you'd swear it was purposeful internal sabotage like with Canada post. For the last 30 years or so the train would leave downtown Victoria in the morning and come back in the evening and nothing could change that schedule. No matter how many people who lived up north of Victoria and worked in the city begged for the schedule to be reversed they didn't do it until like the last year before it all got shut down. Now our idiot (thankfully ex) mayor severed downtown from the railway basically dashing any hopes of turning it into a commuter railway serving the region, or a transit line serving Langford. Yes, we have a railway going between downtown and the fastest growing suburb that has horrible traffic problems and we let it sit abandoned.

Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 02:52 on Nov 27, 2014

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum
It's alright, there is now no legal barrier preventing BC from leaving Canada. I am perfectly fine with this.

Dr. Witherbone
Nov 1, 2010

CHEESE LOOKS ON IN
DESPAIR BUT ALSO WITH
AN ERECTION

Baronjutter posted:

The entire population of Vancouver island is cut in half north/south by a single dangerous mountain highway that until very recently barely had any funds for upgrades. Finally after tons of deaths and some tanker spills, and the fact that every single accident would cut the island in half for hours, the province graced us with a little money. At the same time a railway runs parallel to this highway serving all the little commuter villages and towns, but it sits abandoned because we have seriously no idea how to plan infrastructure in this province, let alone fund anything outside of Vancouver. A ton of people live way up north of Victoria in some of these places, which used to be proper towns and villages with reasons to exist, but now they mostly serve as "cheap" housing for people so absolutely desperate to own a house they're willing to commute over this horrible highway every day. It's very similar to all the awful little places along the West Coast Express' route, which is a model people here were hoping to copy with the railway. But in this case the Malahat highway really did need upgrading, I just hope maybe one day we can get the railway running again, even if it was just a couple trips each way every day.

The E&N railway was so badly run you'd swear it was purposeful internal sabotage like with Canada post. For the last 30 years or so the train would leave downtown Victoria in the morning and come back in the evening and nothing could change that schedule. No matter how many people who lived up north of Victoria and worked in the city begged for the schedule to be reversed they didn't do it until like the last year before it all got shut down. Now our idiot (thankfully ex) mayor severed downtown from the railway basically dashing any hopes of turning it into a commuter railway serving the region, or a transit line serving Langford. Yes, we have a railway going between downtown and the fastest growing suburb that has horrible traffic problems and we let it sit abandoned.

I don't know the specifics, but the Island Corridor Foundation has been working for a very, very long time to get service on the island restarted as proper commuter rail into Victoria, and my understanding is they've been successful? I do know for a fact that they secured $15 million dollars in funding, and I think they have some kind of agreement with Via rail to operate the train again once the tracks are repaired. Here's there website if you want to poke around: http://www.islandrail.ca/

It's not very professionally curated though, their current news story is just a picture of someone installing a rubber flange on the rails in Nanaimo ... :confuoot:

Interestingly, they address the train station problem in Victoria that you're talking about. Apparently even the worst remaining possible station still isn't too bad, about 15 minutes on foot out of downtown, and a more ideal spot that's available is only 5 minutes.

triplexpac
Mar 24, 2007

Suck it
Two tears in a bucket
And then another thing
I'm not the one they'll try their luck with
Hit hard like brass knuckles
See your face through the turnbuckle dude
I got no love for you
This is totally anecdotal, but I am curious:

My friend is looking into buying a house in Toronto. She's been looking with an agent since the spring, and she said that over the summer she was getting lots of new listings sent to her all the time. Things started to slow down in Sept/Oct towards Thanksgiving, but her realtor said it was normal and that things always picked up a lot after Thanksgiving then cooled off again closer to Christmas.

Only thing is that after Thanksgiving the listings continued to dry up, her realtor said he's never seen it happen like this before.

Again, anecdotal, but anyone hear anything like this? What would be the reason why people aren't listing like they used to?

Postess with the Mostest
Apr 4, 2007

Arabian nights
'neath Arabian moons
A fool off his guard
could fall and fall hard
out there on the dunes

triplexpac posted:

her realtor said he's never seen it happen like this before.

Again, anecdotal, but anyone hear anything like this? What would be the reason why people aren't listing like they used to?

I bet the realtor is in his first year of business so technically he's not lying. If this thread has taught us anything, it's that we shouldn't draw conclusions from data supplied by Realtors(tm).

Every year is the same, it spikes in the Spring and again in September.

Saltin
Aug 20, 2003
Don't touch

triplexpac posted:

This is totally anecdotal, but I am curious:

My friend is looking into buying a house in Toronto. She's been looking with an agent since the spring, and she said that over the summer she was getting lots of new listings sent to her all the time. Things started to slow down in Sept/Oct towards Thanksgiving, but her realtor said it was normal and that things always picked up a lot after Thanksgiving then cooled off again closer to Christmas.

Only thing is that after Thanksgiving the listings continued to dry up, her realtor said he's never seen it happen like this before.

Again, anecdotal, but anyone hear anything like this? What would be the reason why people aren't listing like they used to?

I play a game with all of my Toronto friends whenever they start talking about real estate (which is always, in the city) and discussing how much their house is "worth". I ask them "would you pay the amount that you would ask for your house?"

The answer is always no.

Listings are low in key areas, partly because moving is loving expensive with double land transfer in Toronto plus agent fess, plus misc, but also because, and I believe this firmly, no one wants to pay what people are asking for houses. I am in this situation myself. Spend a few more years finishing my mortgage and owning the place free and clear, or move up to a slightly bigger slightly better located place and take on another 500k minimum in debt? Its a no loving brainer and I think this is playing out more than it was before. Realtors can't find any product in the traditional "starter" ranges because less people are moving up.

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Saltin posted:

I play a game with all of my Toronto friends whenever they start talking about real estate (which is always, in the city) and discussing how much their house is "worth". I ask them "would you pay the amount that you would ask for your house?"

The answer is always no.


Listings are low in key areas, partly because moving is loving expensive with double land transfer in Toronto plus agent fess, plus misc, but also because, and I believe this firmly, no one wants to pay what people are asking for houses. I am in this situation myself. Spend a few more years finishing my mortgage and owning the place free and clear, or move up to a slightly bigger slightly better located place and take on another 500k minimum in debt? Its a no loving brainer and I think this is playing out more than it was before. Realtors can't find any product in the traditional "starter" ranges because less people are moving up.

Presumably in the past this would not have been the case, generally speaking? In normal markets would one expect there be a preponderance of 'yes' answers? (Trying to disentangle whether this is normal human 'endowment effect' type stuff, or a signal of an inflated market)

Saltin
Aug 20, 2003
Don't touch

Lexicon posted:

Presumably in the past this would not have been the case, generally speaking? In normal markets would one expect there be a preponderance of 'yes' answers? (Trying to disentangle whether this is normal human 'endowment effect' type stuff, or a signal of an inflated market)

I feel like a reasonable market would mean more yes answers, but I don't have any evidence for that, other than people being reasonable.

With regard to the people not moving as much, here's an article that speaks a bit about what I've seen http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2014/09/08/moveup_buyers_paralyzed_by_high_house_prices_cibc.html

Saltin fucked around with this message at 00:30 on Nov 28, 2014

HookShot
Dec 26, 2005
Yeah, the spike in the spring comes from people who spent the winter getting their house ready to sell, the spike in the early fall is from the procrastinators who wanted to sell their house and just realized it's going to get cold, and everyone else is the people who have to sell their house on short notice.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Good thing OPEC decided not to cut production.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Hahaha gently caress Alberta

Dr. Witherbone
Nov 1, 2010

CHEESE LOOKS ON IN
DESPAIR BUT ALSO WITH
AN ERECTION

Cultural Imperial posted:

Hahaha gently caress Alberta

Cultural Imperial name 5 things you like about Canada.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

Dr. Witherbone posted:

Cultural Imperial name 5 things you like about Canada.

Whistler bike park
Whistler
Montreal
St Amboise cream ale
Seeing Canadian businesses fail

Baronjutter
Dec 31, 2007

"Tiny Trains"

I think we can all be united behind "gently caress alberta", it's one of the few things Canada has left.

FrozenVent
May 1, 2009

The Boeing 737-200QC is the undisputed workhorse of the skies.

Baronjutter posted:

I think we can all be united behind "gently caress alberta", it's one of the few things Canada has left.

gently caress Alberta is the key to Canadian unity. :canada::hf::quebec:

blah_blah
Apr 15, 2006

Lexicon posted:

Presumably in the past this would not have been the case, generally speaking? In normal markets would one expect there be a preponderance of 'yes' answers? (Trying to disentangle whether this is normal human 'endowment effect' type stuff, or a signal of an inflated market)

Yeah, the behavioral econ effect that you mention would tend to make me think that the answer would often be 'yes'. People also generally buy the houses that they do because they like/value them more than other people do, so you would also expect answers to skew in the yes direction because of that as well.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Cultural Imperial posted:

Hahaha gently caress Alberta

Yup due the Saudis the price of oil is expected to nose dive.

Will basically make western energy projects like shale oil cost ineffective.

lol

etalian fucked around with this message at 02:23 on Nov 28, 2014

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ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
The BC Liberals plan to stall for time succeeds!

Who am I kidding? They will still build all the infrastructure, with even greater subsidies, anyways.

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