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Juanito
Jan 20, 2004

I wasn't paying attention
to what you just said.

Can you repeat yourself
in a more interesting way?
Hell Gem

Shakugan posted:

The reason she was worse on the Amazing Race is because they are incredibly annoying when together with all their "TWINNNIEEEEE" bullshit. Because they were separated immediately in the first episode, Natalie hasn't been remotely as bad.
I wasn't able to find any good clips of it on Youtube, and I was a little surprised considering how often it happened.

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Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
This season has become pretty enjoyable since the merge. Watching Keith botch Reid's move was frustrating, but I really didn't expect it to pan out with the way the episode was edited.

I agree that Natalie is probably playing the best game right now, and looks well situated to go to the finals with whichever couple she deems less of a threat (likely Missy and Baylor). I stand by the Sandra comparison I made awhile back. However, Jon and Jaclyn wouldn't be bad winners at all. Jon especially has really come a long way from the goofball he came across as in the beginning of the season. Like others have mentioned too, his sense of humor and the fun he has playing the game is very endearing, and he has some good game sense as well, aptly recognizing that there's no way Reid would vote with them at that TC. Speaking of Reid, I never bought the idea that he was just dead weight early on. He always seemed intelligent enough, and it really just took Josh getting voted out for him to start taking the game into his own hands.

Those 4 are great, but everybody else is pretty terrible, though in Alec's defense, he does seem to have stepped it up recently. Maybe getting called out for pretending Jaclyn didn't exist was a good wakeup call. Missy and Baylor are just the worst, and seem guaranteed for a final 3 slot at this point. Missy is somehow both bossy and a pushover, voting whichever way the wind seems to be blowing at the moment. Baylor held her own before the tribeswap, but playing with her mom has brought out the worst in her. She's like the anti-Ciera. I mostly feel bad for her. Nothing more needs to be said about Keith.

Overall, I'm glad that this season has at least become slightly more entertaining recently.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.

Vernacular posted:

This season has become pretty enjoyable since the merge. Watching Keith botch Reid's move was frustrating, but I really didn't expect it to pan out with the way the episode was edited.

Hah, I forgot about that! I was watching this week's episode last night while I was falling asleep. By the time Tribal Council started I was half-asleep and just listening to people talk. When Keith started talking in TC, his "stick to the plan!" thing was so ridiculous it made me sit up, open my eyes, and make sure I had heard it right.

I can't wait to see what Reed and Alec have to say in post-game interviews about that moment.

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib
I had high hopes for Reed this episode. I thought this move was going to be a top 10 in Survivor history. Kieth hosed that all up.

savinhill
Mar 28, 2010

SalTheBard posted:

I had high hopes for Reed this episode. I thought this move was going to be a top 10 in Survivor history. Kieth hosed that all up.

Same here, thought I was going to have someone to root for that I liked and had an actual chance to win, but nope, we're getting the John show from here on out.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



The Know It Alls blamed Reed for not managing his alliance of morons by selling his lie too effectively.

DaisyDanger
Feb 19, 2007

Sorry, a system error occurred.

SalTheBard posted:

I had high hopes for Reed this episode. I thought this move was going to be a top 10 in Survivor history. Kieth hosed that all up.

It's going to be in the top 10 dumbest things ever on Survivor. Seriously, what the gently caress, Keith?

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

UltimoDragonQuest posted:

The Know It Alls blamed Reed for not managing his alliance of morons by selling his lie too effectively.

I agree with them. You have to know who you're playing with and that means knowing you're relying on three idiots. The misdirection in Tribal was unnecessary and as stupid as Keith is for falling for it and giving up the plan after 29 days Reed should have anticipated something like that happening. Hell, I expected Alec to blow it earlier and they dodged that. Why couldn't you just kept your mouth shut so you don't spook the dummies?

Even though I would have loved to see Jon blindsided I liked Natalie saving his rear end. It kept her plan intact. She wanted to take out another guy this week and save Jon for next week and she ended up with those results and Jon lost his idol. Sure, she could have just let Jon go here but there was no guarantee of that from her perspective and it would have left more unwieldy people in the game to keep things chaotic. She seems to have Baylor pretty close to her so if she secure Missy that could be a great F3 for her. Take out Jon next week, Reed the next, and then Jaclyn. If she can pull that off than the only risk is Missy and Baylor having the bright idea to drag Alex or Keith to the end as a goat.

It's not an easy path but I think it's doable and Natalie seems to be the only one with the skills to pull it off.

I never see the "Winner's Edit" and think it's a very silly idea but I especially don't see how people see Jon getting it. Yeah, he and Jaclyn got a sweet story this week but he's still an idiot who couldn't see through Alec of all people and STILL wasn't going to play his idol after Keith blew it all open and needed Natalie to tell him what to do. And Baylor? Seriously? I even kind of like her but there's no way I see her as anything but a goat. If there's anyone getting a "Winner's Edit" I'd put it on Natalie since she's been shown as the most subtle, long game player left and basically told Jon and Baylor what to do this episode.

But again, I don't believe in "Winner's Edit". I think people see it when they see a player's game become the narrative and they assume that narrative is scripted by the editors instead of just the way the game played out. Which is why people thought Josh was getting one because he was a major controlling force early on, it's why people think Jon had it now since the game has revolvd around him the last few weeks, and why I kind of see it in Natalie's edit because I think she's starting to take some subtle control.

Narcissus1916
Apr 29, 2013

The fact that they showed Natalie TELLING Jon to play the idol is a pretty big indicator that Natalie is going to be a dominant player moving forward.

SalTheBard
Jan 26, 2005

I forgot to post my food for USPOL Thanksgiving but that's okay too!

Fallen Rib
I wonder if people are going to be lobbying to get sent to Exile next week

savinhill
Mar 28, 2010

SalTheBard posted:

I wonder if people are going to be lobbying to get sent to Exile next week

Or if the dominant alliance members on the winning team will be smart enough to avoid sending someone they'll be voting out soon.

Binary Logic
Dec 28, 2000

Fun Shoe

Narcissus1916 posted:

The fact that they showed Natalie TELLING Jon to play the idol is a pretty big indicator that Natalie is going to be a dominant player moving forward.

She's been dominant or at least making the right moves at the right time, since getting the opposing tribe to listen to her and vote off Rocker.

Also interesting that since her twinnie was booted she's been able to latch onto someone else as her closest ally; she seemed to transition from Jeremy to Baylor ("Hey bestie we're not getting water we're going to look for the HII") without missing a beat.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I was a little surprised she so quickly picked up Baylor since Baylor has Missy. I imagined Natalie would try and cut a deal with Reed since they were both flying solo and kind of in a tough spot. But Baylor did share that Idol clue with her so it makes sense and Baylor seems like she's been looking for a friend and partner all game. Her mom just kind of forced her into the kid role so it would be pretty cool if Natalie could become the bad influence and somehow convince Baylor she has to Ciera her mom. Something like "they'll never respect you or vote for you if you're sitting next to your mom." Then Natalie will skyrocket up my list of favorite players.

Smorgasbord
Jun 18, 2004

Our review identified changes needed to be made and, in Stephen, we have a coach who has a reputation for demanding the highest standards.
I knew Reed's plan was too complicated for dummies like Keith, Wes & Alec to pull off successfully :(. Maybe if he could've pulled them all aside and said "I'm going to say a whole lot of poo poo at tribal because it is vital that Jon does not suspect whats up, just keep quiet and stick to the plan" but even then Keith really didn't seem to grasp what was going on. If Reed was working with non-dummies I think the best move is the same plan with the addition of Jaclyn being the actual target, and try to have Jon be juuuust suspicious enough to play the idol on himself, would be very difficult to pull off though.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Narcissus1916 posted:

The fact that they showed Natalie TELLING Jon to play the idol is a pretty big indicator that Natalie is going to be a dominant player moving forward.
I can't believe they would ever edit that out of the show even if she was booted next. It's just good TV.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I agree that it was a mistake for Reed to target Jon over Jaclyn. Avoiding that idol all together would have been safer and still would have worked even with all that madness.

That being said, something that doesn't seem to be mentioned, what was Reed's next play? Even if he gets Jon out he's got Jaclyn, Missy, Baylor, and Natalie who he's betrayed against him, Wes, Keith, and Alec. It would have been a great blindside to get out Jon but it didn't seem to be part of any greater plan towards winning the game.

Mercaptopropyl
Sep 16, 2006

I can be framed easier than Whistler's Mother

Met posted:

They're playing up the whole, "We can't have kids, we could really use the money to conceive our own child, my father has brain cancer" for Jon not to win at this point.

Or he doesn't win and it's to make sure J&J win the fan favorite money.

Arcanen
Dec 19, 2005

People really need to stop trying to read the edit, it just makes everyone look like morons. Some many people were commenting how Josh and Jeremy were clearly edited to have a big alliance battle for the rest of the season, and we all know how that went.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

by Fluffdaddy

STAC Goat posted:

I agree that it was a mistake for Reed to target Jon over Jaclyn. Avoiding that idol all together would have been safer and still would have worked even with all that madness.

That being said, something that doesn't seem to be mentioned, what was Reed's next play? Even if he gets Jon out he's got Jaclyn, Missy, Baylor, and Natalie who he's betrayed against him, Wes, Keith, and Alec. It would have been a great blindside to get out Jon but it didn't seem to be part of any greater plan towards winning the game.

I'd guess that his plan would be to try and talk Missy/Baylor into a final three alliance and then use Keith/Wes/Alec to vote out Jaclyn/Natalie at the next two tribals. If he got to that point, then he could either flip on Missy/Baylor, talk Alec into voting out one of Wes/Keith, or try to talk Keith/Wes into a final three alliance to vote out Alec. He could also try to talk Natalie/Alec into a single persons alliance, then use Wes/Keith to vote out Jaclyn/Missy/Baylor in any order. Any way you cut it, he becomes the kingmaker with five people left.

Adus
Nov 4, 2009

heck
i binged like 9 episodes of this season over the past couple days after originally stopping after the first. glad it has started to pick up a bit because that was a dreadful pre-merge. i'm still not fond of this season and there's no one really to root for, but should be a bit more interesting now at least.

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
I thought I was going to have a hard time slogging through the rest of this season once Jeremy and Josh went down, but the utter chaos at least has me wanting to see what happens next.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist

DaisyDanger posted:

It's going to be in the top 10 dumbest things ever on Survivor. Seriously, what the gently caress, Keith?

From the season preview:

"I've done the worst thing in Survivor history!"

Shakugan posted:

People really need to stop trying to read the edit, it just makes everyone look like morons. Some many people were commenting how Josh and Jeremy were clearly edited to have a big alliance battle for the rest of the season, and we all know how that went.

You're right. Let's all sit quietly and just golf clap next episode. :downs:

The latest Richard Hatch interview on RHAP would be a good thing for you to listen to.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

by Fluffdaddy
Just as a warning if you watch CBS at all: They absolutely spoil this week episode in a huge way during promos for the show.

If you don't care about spoilers then read this: They are going to draw rocks this week.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=

TMMadman posted:

Just as a warning if you watch CBS at all: They absolutely spoil this week episode in a huge way during promos for the show.

If you don't care about spoilers then read this: They are going to draw rocks this week.

I think they showed a promo from a previous season by accident, since everything they showed was from the FIRST blood vs water.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Smorgasbord posted:

I knew Reed's plan was too complicated for dummies like Keith, Wes & Alec to pull off successfully :(. Maybe if he could've pulled them all aside and said "I'm going to say a whole lot of poo poo at tribal because it is vital that Jon does not suspect whats up, just keep quiet and stick to the plan" but even then Keith really didn't seem to grasp what was going on. If Reed was working with non-dummies I think the best move is the same plan with the addition of Jaclyn being the actual target, and try to have Jon be juuuust suspicious enough to play the idol on himself, would be very difficult to pull off though.
Yeah, I was going to say he should have warned them like that, and then I realized for all we know he did and Keith just hosed it up anyway. I would not be surprised at all if that were the case.

STAC Goat posted:

That being said, something that doesn't seem to be mentioned, what was Reed's next play? Even if he gets Jon out he's got Jaclyn, Missy, Baylor, and Natalie who he's betrayed against him, Wes, Keith, and Alec. It would have been a great blindside to get out Jon but it didn't seem to be part of any greater plan towards winning the game.
Well he'd go from being down in the numbers to being even, as would the rest of the people he teamed up with. It's an up hill battle for sure but that'd be a huge step. Plus, Keith and Wes would still have an idol, so it'd be 4-4 with an idol in hand. 25% chance to play it properly, plus a chance to win on rocks or whatever, and take control of the game. Plus, maybe someone like Natalie would jump ship to avoid the tie.

Professor Shark
May 22, 2012

I cannot believe how dumb that was, holy poo poo

Homestar Runner
Oct 9, 2012

This is the best videogame
I have ever played!
so Keith out-dumbed Drew for this season right?

Professor Shark
May 22, 2012

Homestar Runner posted:

so Keith out-dumbed Drew for this season right?

:stare:... let's just stick to the plan

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Homestar Runner posted:

so Keith out-dumbed Drew for this season right?

I don't know. Drew basically single handily got himself voted out for no reason. He was perfectly safe when the episode started but he became obsessed with Kelly which threw his alliance for a loop opening the door for the the women's alliance, which only really happened because Drew was pushing it so hard that the women decided they might as well since they were getting targeted for it anyway.

Keith was a massive moron but at least he was on the hot seat when it started. Plus Reed is kind of a snake who had thrown him under the bus last week so it made SOME sense for him to doubt Reed. Of course not to SAY that in Tribal but still. Keith's paranoia and stupidity was at least reality based.

Factor Mystic
Mar 20, 2006

Baby's First Post-Apocalyptic Fiction
The goat herd ruins everything again. No wonder Natalie would prefer to be with Jon & co.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
I really hope they didn't double up on these episodes because it's two boring and easy votes and they just want to get it out of the way. Though if that were the case they might've just put it in a one hour ep like they did back in Redemption Island and those other terrible seasons

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I don't get why people seem to be expecting Natalie to ride this five down the line. She was scheming last week with Baylor to take a shot at Jon this Tribal or next. As far as we can tell she has every intention to turn the tables on him, but she just wanted to shore up numbers first. So as crazy as last week's Tribal was it worked out more or less exactly as she hoped. So I assume the plan is still to lead Baylor on a revolt and to try and take out Jon one of these two episodes.

And of course there's Reed who will keep dancing and throwing people under the bus to save his rear end. And Missy who was weary of how easily Jon turned on Jeremy and has her daughter scheming to betray him.

I'd be very surprised if we just get a straight Pagonging tonight.

savinhill
Mar 28, 2010

STAC Goat posted:

I don't get why people seem to be expecting Natalie to ride this five down the line. She was scheming last week with Baylor to take a shot at Jon this Tribal or next. As far as we can tell she has every intention to turn the tables on him, but she just wanted to shore up numbers first. So as crazy as last week's Tribal was it worked out more or less exactly as she hoped. So I assume the plan is still to lead Baylor on a revolt and to try and take out Jon one of these two episodes.

And of course there's Reed who will keep dancing and throwing people under the bus to save his rear end. And Missy who was weary of how easily Jon turned on Jeremy and has her daughter scheming to betray him.

I'd be very surprised if we just get a straight Pagonging tonight.

I hope you're right but I got the impression from last week's episode that Natalie has no intentions of even thinking of working with Reed and he seems like the best out of the three stragglers to work a plan with.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I think Reed is a dead man walking. Between winning the immunity idol and his failed coup he's proven himself too dangerous to let keep around. Unless he wins the idol again or finds a deposited one I think Natalie, Jon, Jaclyn, Missy, and Baylor will take him out next vote.

After that I think Natalie might make her move on Jon. If she can convince Missy and Baylor to do it (and both seemed half way there already) then all they need to do is let Jon and Jaclyn vote for Keith or Alec. Then you take your chances that Jaclyn won't be so dead set on revenge that she sides with Alec and Keith to risk a rock draw. I don't care how upset I am that you betrayed my fiancé, I'm not drawing rocks and I'm sure as poo poo not counting on Keith and Alec to do the same. If I'm Jaclyn in that position I suck it up and ride it out to F4 and hope I can win some idols or sway some people. Because she's easily the most physical of the women.

So I think the first episode will be Reed trying to survive but it ends up going predictably and then everything goes crazy as Natalie makes a move on Jon.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
Previously on...Survivor!

A dumbfuck!

EDIT: But how did he know what the plan was :smug:

Bush Did Outer Heaven
Jan 18, 2005

The Sweetest Payne
lmbo Keith's reaction to Alec and Reed yelling at him.

"How'd he know what the plan was?!"

Ghostpilot
Jun 22, 2007

"As a rule, I never touch anything more sophisticated and delicate than myself."
"Baaaaaby! Let me be the mastermiiiiiiiind!" :saddowns:

Ugh, Jon.

Robnoxious
Feb 17, 2004

The Beautiful People are fighting.

Good.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=

Robnoxious posted:

The Beautiful People are fighting.

Good.

i'd be totally fine with both of them going home tonight. also alec. and keith.

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Robnoxious
Feb 17, 2004

Ahhhh Cutthroat... now the battle lines will be so spelled out even Keith might finally get it.

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