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Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

De Nomolos posted:

Til then, I hope that Law and Order candidate is Lindsey Graham.

Or Fred Thompson.

Dear god, the ads right themselves. I wonder if Dick Wolf will give up the :doinkdoink: sound effect.

Also, running a Silent Majority candidate in The Year of Our Lord 2014 is loving stupid. For all the poo poo the media is bad it they will attack perceived racial attacks and blow them up on you pretty bad.

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Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
What, precisely, is the difference between the Tea Party and the Silent Majority?

... okay, 40 years.

Huh. You know, the Tea Partiers do seem to be about 40 years older than Silent Majoritarians.

Fried Chicken
Jan 9, 2011

Don't fry me, I'm no chicken!

Mooseontheloose posted:

Dear god, the ads right themselves. I wonder if Dick Wolf will give up the :doinkdoink: sound effect.

Also, running a Silent Majority candidate in The Year of Our Lord 2014 is loving stupid. For all the poo poo the media is bad it they will attack perceived racial attacks and blow them up on you pretty bad.

I don't have nearly that much faith in the media, look at the pass they gave the Republicans for the past few years

The sailer strategy could work. It would be incredibly toxic for this country, but if you care more about winning the race for the position than how you help or harm people that is no impediment

De Nomolos
Jan 17, 2007

TV rots your brain like it's crack cocaine

Warcabbit posted:

What, precisely, is the difference between the Tea Party and the Silent Majority?

... okay, 40 years.

Huh. You know, the Tea Partiers do seem to be about 40 years older than Silent Majoritarians.

The Silent Majority was a reaction to hippies and privileged college kids spitting on their privilege by seizing colleges. The SM was largely working class and saw kids with better life chances than then pissing on their gift in the name of supporting communists in Vietnam or militant blacks who were given the "gift" of Affirmative Action as petulant babies. The SM phenomenon must not be confused with backlashes against Civil Rights in general, better associated with Dixiecrats and Goldwater. Nixons exploitation of this came after the peaceful King-led movement had died down in the media in favor of militants and the war in Vietnam was center-stage. SM-associated politicians still in many cases supported deficit spending and "big government" intervention in the economy (See: Scoop Jackson, Nixon, Rockefeller).

While the Tea Party is a purist movement, the Silent Majority was a cynical exploitation of working class resentment against certain perceived "privileges." It would eventually be fused with more purist principals under Ronald Reagan's leadership, though he had long been of this ilk, just not as a GOP-standard bearer.

Full Battle Rattle
Aug 29, 2009

As long as the times refuse to change, we're going to make a hell of a racket.
Do/did the "Silent Majority" and the "Moral Majority" overlap?

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Full Battle Rattle posted:

Do/did the "Silent Majority" and the "Moral Majority" overlap?

The Moral Majority didn't exist until the '80s, but the demographics do overlap.

ErIog
Jul 11, 2001

:nsacloud:
The internet has killed the idea of there being an actual silent majority in the modern day. The idea of the silent majority was that it was just trouble-makers getting attention in media that were disconnected from the actual American people. Now that the internet has democratized media to a certain extent, there is no silent anything. You can probably find your Slate Political Gabfest along with whatever weird naturist anti-vaxxer colon cleansing podcasts you want. We have topics trending on Twitter that get talked about by Wolf Blitzer on CNN.

Talk radio also put a bullet in the "silent majority" thing even before the internet. In the modern day the only way a "silent majority" gets invoked is if somebody is trying to unskew polls. "The majority of the American people agree with me guys! I promise! There's just no evidence of it, but I know they do!"

Alec Bald Snatch
Sep 12, 2012

by exmarx

Deteriorata posted:

The Moral Majority didn't exist until the '80s, but the demographics do overlap.

70s and yes. The Moral Majority was created as a means of keeping the people upset with integration politically active by creating another divisive issue using religious affiliation.

Sir Tonk
Apr 18, 2006
Young Orc
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/rick-perry-2016-campaign-113210.html

It's happening.

Alec Bald Snatch
Sep 12, 2012

by exmarx
No COMMUNISTS! Both parties have been INFILTRATED BY THE ENEMY! Wake up AMERICA! Perry is another DESPOT and we must form another party to overthrow this takeover! This idiot use to be democrat before he became republican. Then he tried to force vaccines onto our children which has caused DEATH and STERILIZATION once given the shot! He continued to try to force this onto "We the People"! Th worst of two evils is an worse for of EVIL! Please anyone whom has an ear let them hear this..........Prepare for the worst and pray for the best! Both parties are DEMONS! If we do not form "THE FREEDOM LOVING" party of libertarianism with constitutional loving members we will all be SACRIFICED TO SATAN! Ron Paul WHERE ARE YOU? The hole is becoming a trap now what????? Sink or swim!!!! Enough of the DISEASED FEW RULING and time for THE SANE TO STAND UP AND YELL FREEDOM!

fade5
May 31, 2012

by exmarx
Not only is this going to be funny because of Perry's rather forgetful moment last time, Perry's still got the whole "in-state tuition for illegal immigrants" problem from last time (which he can't fully pivot away from without destroying any potential Hispanic cred in the general).

Also Perry vs Cruz is gonna be a blast, they both loving hate each other.:allears:

SirKibbles
Feb 27, 2011

I didn't like your old red text so here's some dancing cash. :10bux:

fade5 posted:

Not only is this going to be funny because of Perry's rather forgetful moment last time, Perry's still got the whole "in-state tuition for illegal immigrants" problem from last time (which he can't fully pivot away from without destroying any potential Hispanic cred in the general).

Also Perry vs Cruz is gonna be a blast, they both loving hate each other.:allears:

I think the one thing everyone in Texas regardless of politics can agree on is that Cruz is plague on politics.

Nameless_Steve
Oct 18, 2010

"There are fair questions about shooting non-lethally at retreating civilian combatants."

comes along bort posted:

No COMMUNISTS! Both parties have been INFILTRATED BY THE ENEMY! Wake up AMERICA! Perry is another DESPOT and we must form another party to overthrow this takeover! This idiot use to be democrat before he became republican. Then he tried to force vaccines onto our children which has caused DEATH and STERILIZATION once given the shot! He continued to try to force this onto "We the People"! Th worst of two evils is an worse for of EVIL! Please anyone whom has an ear let them hear this..........Prepare for the worst and pray for the best! Both parties are DEMONS! If we do not form "THE FREEDOM LOVING" party of libertarianism with constitutional loving members we will all be SACRIFICED TO SATAN! Ron Paul WHERE ARE YOU? The hole is becoming a trap now what????? Sink or swim!!!! Enough of the DISEASED FEW RULING and time for THE SANE TO STAND UP AND YELL FREEDOM!

I'm invoking Poe's Law.

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

fade5 posted:

Not only is this going to be funny because of Perry's rather forgetful moment last time, Perry's still got the whole "in-state tuition for illegal immigrants" problem from last time (which he can't fully pivot away from without destroying any potential Hispanic cred in the general).

Also Perry vs Cruz is gonna be a blast, they both loving hate each other.:allears:

Also, how will the decline in energy prices effect Perry?

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Mooseontheloose posted:

Also, how will the decline in energy prices effect Perry?

Probably not a lot; he'll be out of office by the time you really feel the impact.

It would probably be less effective to mention Texas in a year and a half compared with now if the price keeps dropping though.

Sir Tonk
Apr 18, 2006
Young Orc

fade5 posted:

Not only is this going to be funny because of Perry's rather forgetful moment last time, Perry's still got the whole "in-state tuition for illegal immigrants" problem from last time (which he can't fully pivot away from without destroying any potential Hispanic cred in the general).

Also Perry vs Cruz is gonna be a blast, they both loving hate each other.:allears:

Maybe Perry will campaing like Bush did in 2000 and gently caress up the flow of the GOP to the right.

And everyone hates Cruz, well maybe not Mike Lee.

Mooseontheloose posted:

Also, how will the decline in energy prices effect Perry?

He made gas cheap for us consumers!

Mooseontheloose
May 13, 2003

computer parts posted:

Probably not a lot; he'll be out of office by the time you really feel the impact.

It would probably be less effective to mention Texas in a year and a half compared with now if the price keeps dropping though.

I mean isn't the whole Texas Miracle basically based off the fact that oil was so expensive?

FMguru
Sep 10, 2003

peed on;
sexually

Mooseontheloose posted:

I mean isn't the whole Texas Miracle basically based off the fact that oil was so expensive?
That, and American oil production started booming (because of fracking) and guess where all the refineries for that are, and guess where all the companies that make and operate oil-drilling equipment are?

mdemone
Mar 14, 2001

Debate & Discussion > 2016 Presidential Primary: the hole is becoming a trap now what

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

mdemone posted:

Debate & Discussion > 2016 Presidential Primary: the hole is becoming a trap now what

Debate & Discussion > 2016 Presidential Primary: let it flare

Nameless_Steve
Oct 18, 2010

"There are fair questions about shooting non-lethally at retreating civilian combatants."
Debate & Discussion > 2016 Presidential Primary: "Glasses Make You Smexy" Edition

JosefStalinator
Oct 9, 2007

Come Tbilisi if you want to live.




Grimey Drawer

SirKibbles posted:

I think the one thing everyone in Texas regardless of politics can agree on is that Cruz is plague on politics.

Untrue - I had my students in my political science class do a small extra credit exercise on their favorite politician, and one of them picked Ted Cruz. :negative:

richardfun
Aug 10, 2008

Twenty years? It's no wonder I'm so hungry. Do you have anything to eat?

Nameless_Steve posted:

Debate & Discussion > 2016 Presidential Primary: "Glasses Make You Smexy" Edition



That takes care of my nightmares for the foreseeable future...

skaboomizzy
Nov 12, 2003

There is nothing I want to be. There is nothing I want to do.
I don't even have an image of what I want to be. I have nothing. All that exists is zero.
Rob Portman will not run for President. The GOP field will surely miss the presence of this bland fiscal policy wonk.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

Alan Lichtman's 13 keys for determining the outcome of the next presidential election are always interesting.

http://bangordailynews.com/2014/11/27/opinion/contributors/looking-at-prospects-for-2016-presidential-race-through-lichtmans-keys/

quote:

Former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb’s decision to become the first of an expected dozen or more candidates forming presidential exploratory committees provides a good excuse to start considering 2016.

And why not? In political terms, 2014 is so … yesterday, and the potential 2016 scenarios are endless.

So let’s take a first look at professor Allan Lichtman’s “Keys to the Presidency,” the guidelines that, for more than 20 years, have provided the best long-range predictor of presidential elections, ever since they forecast a year ahead that the first President George Bush would be defeated.

In fact, the American University professor says, his keys have correctly forecast every presidential race since 1860. That includes its 2000 forecast that Democrat Al Gore would beat Republican George W. Bush; the keys predict the popular vote, which Gore won, not the electoral vote, which elected Bush, he says.

Lichtman’s system involves answering true or false to 13 statements.

If eight or more of the 13 are true, the incumbent party retains the presidency. If at least six are false, it loses.

With the GOP’s gain of House seats in the midterm election (Key No. 1), most keys are either fixed or clearly trending one way. But the ultimate result remains in doubt: Republicans are two short of the six “false” keys needed to beat the incumbent party, and the Democrats are unsure of the eight that would ensure them another term in the White House.

Here is where they stand:

Key 1: Incumbent party gained House seats in midterm election. Nope. Democrats lost 11 seats. False.

Key 2: No serious fight for the incumbent party’s nomination. No clear challenger to Hillary Clinton has emerged. True for now.

Key 3: Incumbent president running. The two-term limit precludes that. False.

Key 4: No significant third-party candidate. Independent candidacies generally emerge later in the electoral cycle. True for now.

Key 5: No recession during the election year. That’s the forecast. True for now.

Key 6: Greater or equal economic growth during the current term than in the two previous terms. The Great Recession spanning Bush’s second and Obama’s first terms should make this one true. Likely True.

Key 7: Incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. Obama did that by enacting Obamacare in his first term, but second-term efforts to enact significant changes, such as comprehensive immigration reform, remain stalled. Likely False.

Key 8: No major domestic social unrest. True.

Key 9: No major scandal. This one is somewhat open to debate. Republicans would cite the problems with the IRS, the bungled security that led to the death of four Americans at Benghazi, and the problems of the Veterans Administration. But, so far, nothing rises to the Watergate or Teapot Dome level. True.

Key 10: No major foreign policy or defense disaster. Parts of the world are a mess, but not primarily because of an administration initiative such as the 2003 invasion of Iraq. True for now.

Key 11: The incumbent administration achieves a major foreign policy or defense success. A pact preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons might qualify if it comes to pass. Likely false.

Key 12: Incumbent party’s presidential candidate is charismatic. Lichtman says he’s never considered Hillary Clinton charismatic, making the key false. But a case can be made that she would be considered charismatic merely by becoming the first woman nominated by a major party. In doubt.

Key 13: Challenging candidate is not charismatic. Again, it’s too early to know for sure, but looking at the prospective GOP field, the odds favor this one coming true. Likely true.

In summary, the present count has eight keys answered as true or likely true, one in doubt and four false or likely false, two fewer than needed to indicate a Republican victory.

Lichtman says he’s not ready to make a definitive forecast, noting “one of the beauties of the keys is that some keys are open to reasoned debate.”

The false total could reach the decisive six by if two of these five things happen: a major Democratic primary fight; a significant third-party candidate emerges; a major Obama scandal; a major Obama administration foreign policy disaster; or Democrats’ nomination of a noncharismatic candidate.

House Republicans hope their hearings on Benghazi will elevate that tragedy into a major scandal. But the GOP’s best hopes might be a Democratic presidential nomination fight or the nomination of a noncharismatic Democratic candidate.

In other words, a Democratic primary fight that Clinton loses could signal a Republican victory in 2016. Stay tuned.

As for Clinton losing the Democratic primary in 2016, good luck with that.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

At what point did it really become clear Obama was running in 2008? I keep feeling like if there was going to be a Hillary challenger I'd sort of know who they were by now, but I realized that don't actually have any real basis for that belief because I apparently have the memory of a goldfish and can't remember the leadup to the primaries in 2008 well enough.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

evilweasel posted:

At what point did it really become clear Obama was running in 2008? I keep feeling like if there was going to be a Hillary challenger I'd sort of know who they were by now, but I realized that don't actually have any real basis for that belief because I apparently have the memory of a goldfish and can't remember the leadup to the primaries in 2008 well enough.

When was Obama's first official visit to a county bordering Iowa? There's your answer. Convention speech + Iowa bordering county visit = you're in.

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

evilweasel posted:

At what point did it really become clear Obama was running in 2008? I keep feeling like if there was going to be a Hillary challenger I'd sort of know who they were by now, but I realized that don't actually have any real basis for that belief because I apparently have the memory of a goldfish and can't remember the leadup to the primaries in 2008 well enough.

quote:

Monday, October 23, 2006
Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) opened the door to a 2008 presidential campaign yesterday, saying he has begun to weigh a possible candidacy and will make a decision after the November elections.

"Given the responses that I've been getting over the last several months, I have thought about the possibility, but I have not thought about it with the seriousness and depth that I think is required," Obama said on NBC's "Meet the Press." "After November 7th, I'll sit down and consider it, and if at some point, I change my mind, I will make a public announcement and everybody will be able to go at me."

Until yesterday, Obama, one of the brightest stars in the party since he electrified the 2004 Democratic National Convention with his keynote address, had said he planned to serve out the full six years of his Senate term, which would have ruled out a presidential or vice presidential campaign in 2008.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
With the bombshell that Rob Portman has decided not to lose the 2016 nomination, CNN finds someone named Willard Mitt Romney (I'll save you the Google, here's his Wikipedia article) leading with 20% in a crowded field. Ben Carson comes in second with 10%.

Meanwhile, Hillary's lead over Warren narrows from 57% to a mere 55% :ohdear:

Pirate Radar
Apr 18, 2008

You're not my Ruthie!
You're not my Debbie!
You're not my Sherry!
Serious question, if Mittens runs again does that mean another family documentary?

i am the bird
Mar 2, 2005

I SUPPORT ALL THE PREDATORS

Chantilly Say posted:

Serious question, if Mittens runs again does that mean another family documentary?

Mitt fascinates me because even though the man still comes across as an emotionless weirdo in parts, he looks and sounds like an actual human being throughout the doc. Ann and his one deranged son look even worse, arguably, but Mitt and the rest of the family seem normal. If he runs again, the campaign team could do much worse than trotting that documentary out over and over again.

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Yeah Mitt really is the Republicans' best option, I don't think he had much of a chance in 2008 post GW Bush and against superstar Obama but after 8 years of supposedly-terrible Obama and that puffy documentary he would have MORE of a shot, at least. I don't think any of those other guys in the CNN poll have much of a chance, I mean J Bush or Christie I can sort of imagine but it's hard.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound
Christie is far and away the best politician in the Republican field, and the most adept at tapping into the raw id that drives the modern republican party. Unfortunately or fortunately he's also a giant (lol fat) walking stereoytpe of the Yankee rear end in a top hat and I don't know how that will play outside of the northeast.

The X-man cometh
Nov 1, 2009

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Alan Lichtman's 13 keys for determining the outcome of the next presidential election are always interesting.

http://bangordailynews.com/2014/11/27/opinion/contributors/looking-at-prospects-for-2016-presidential-race-through-lichtmans-keys/

Key 8: No major domestic social unrest.


The GOP is going to try to make Ferguson protesters look like the Black Panthers, and maybe middle America believes them.

Solkanar512
Dec 28, 2006

by the sex ghost

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Christie is far and away the best politician in the Republican field, and the most adept at tapping into the raw id that drives the modern republican party. Unfortunately or fortunately he's also a giant (lol fat) walking stereoytpe of the Yankee rear end in a top hat and I don't know how that will play outside of the northeast.

Not to mention the fact he couldn't pass Romney's vetting process for VP.

woke wedding drone
Jun 1, 2003

by exmarx
Fun Shoe

evilweasel posted:

At what point did it really become clear Obama was running in 2008? I keep feeling like if there was going to be a Hillary challenger I'd sort of know who they were by now, but I realized that don't actually have any real basis for that belief because I apparently have the memory of a goldfish and can't remember the leadup to the primaries in 2008 well enough.

I think the hat-in-the-ring moment was his speech in Springfield. Looking it up, that was 2/10/07. We've got about two months I guess.

After that there were debates with John Edwards and Kucinich. Oh and wasn't Chris Dodd in there somewhere? :laffo:

The Warszawa
Jun 6, 2005

Look at me. Look at me.

I am the captain now.

SedanChair posted:

I think the hat-in-the-ring moment was his speech in Springfield. Looking it up, that was 2/10/07. We've got about two months I guess.

After that there were debates with John Edwards and Kucinich. Oh and wasn't Chris Dodd in there somewhere? :laffo:

Springfield was the official announcement but it was really cemented in December. Hillary actually declared later than Obama as I remember it.

Fuckt Tupp
Apr 19, 2007

Science

Naet posted:

Mitt fascinates me because even though the man still comes across as an emotionless weirdo in parts, he looks and sounds like an actual human being throughout the doc. Ann and his one deranged son look even worse, arguably, but Mitt and the rest of the family seem normal. If he runs again, the campaign team could do much worse than trotting that documentary out over and over again.

I think Romney being normal is his entire problem. He's too normal. He's aggressively normal.

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

The Warszawa posted:

Springfield was the official announcement but it was really cemented in December. Hillary actually declared later than Obama as I remember it.

Yeah but it's the unofficial declarations of intent that I'm most interested in. I just don't see anyone who can beat Hillary - granted, many people didn't think Obama could either but he was at least credible. I don't see the credible challengers here. I could see Warren playing that sort of role (though I don't think she'd be successful) but I've seen no indication she is actually interested in running. I don't see anyone else - Webb is really the only other 'serious' candidate and nobody's going to win the Democratic nomination attacking Hillary from the right.

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pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
I mean he's [e: Christie's] clearly Nixonian-bordering-on-mobster and I think people will see that but after Bush winning in 2004 I'm forced to remain a touch agnostic about it.

(I don't mean Bush was Nixonian I mean he was clearly in over his head and incompetent and at that point "I thought people would see that", too... the media is a little less pathetic than it was back then, though.)

pangstrom fucked around with this message at 17:50 on Dec 2, 2014

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