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Jumpingmanjim posted:What's causing the oil price crash anyway? OPEC wanting to kill Russia.
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Nov 29, 2014 03:17
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Jumpingmanjim posted:What's causing the oil price crash anyway? OPEC has been getting some poo poo from the US Shale boom, and from ISIS threatening them, so as a big FU to both they announced that they'd be maintaining their high level of output. This caused the market to correct as it had hedged on OPEC reducing production in the face of the slushy market, in order to keep prices high. The idea that they might try to drive prices down in a sort of reverse-1970's maneuver sent market speculators reeling. Dreylad posted:How many decades before we start remembering that farmland - good farmland - in this country is a precious, precarious resource. With the rate at which climate change is starting to decimate US agriculture, two decades at the most. If you're optimistic. Rime fucked around with this message at 03:40 on Nov 29, 2014 |
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Nov 29, 2014 03:28
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Baronjutter posted:Yeah, I've heard the entire purpose of "reclamation" is for quick photo ops. It's a nice optic to point towards, and for a lot of people as long as it looks "green" it's a-ok. This is why I get frustrated when people talk about reclamation and farmland. No, once you scrape off the topsoil for the next subdivision it can't be shipped to the Canadian shield to produce a new food belt. How many decades before we start remembering that farmland - good farmland - in this country is a precious, precarious resource.
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Nov 29, 2014 03:38
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Rime posted:OPEC has been getting some poo poo from the US Shale boom, and from ISIS threatening them, so as a big FU to both they announced that they'd be maintaining their high level of output. This caused the market to correct as it had hedged on OPEC reducing production in the face of the slushy market, in order to keep prices high. The idea that they might try to drive prices down in a sort of reverse-1970's maneuver sent market speculators reeling. Yeah places like Saudi Arabia said they would be Ok with oil being at a lower market price due to higher production even though it will gently caress over countries like Iran, Venezuela and Russia. It will also impact US oil projects like shale oil since low oil price per barrel makes more expensive methods of oil extraction unprofitable. 
etalian fucked around with this message at 03:44 on Nov 29, 2014 |
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Nov 29, 2014 03:42
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OPEC doesn't give a poo poo about Russia. They're trying to kill north Dakota
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Nov 29, 2014 03:46
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Isn't it also loving over Canada? I thought oil prices had to be over like $80 (or $60? something with an even number in it) for the producers here to be profitable.
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Nov 29, 2014 03:52
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HookShot posted:Isn't it also loving over Canada? I thought oil prices had to be over like $80 (or $60? something with an even number in it) for the producers here to be profitable. Canadian capital investment and management is more robust in this respect, it mainly fucks over more costly US oil extraction schemes and also poorer OPEC members who depend on higher price per barrel.
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Nov 29, 2014 04:16
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etalian posted:Canadian capital investment and management is more robust in this respect, it mainly fucks over more costly US oil extraction schemes and also poorer OPEC members who depend on higher price per barrel.
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Nov 29, 2014 04:30
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Geoid posted:Reclamation is a total joke. I've done monitoring on some sites: it's basically removing the topsoil then putting turf and a couple of trees on top. I've been involved in the mining industry for 10 years and unless the regulations have changed a lot in the last year or so this isn't what's supposed to be done, and most mature jurisdictions require appropriate plans to maintain topsoil and local microbial culture. If this isn't the case in Alberta then  LemonDrizzle posted:My understanding is that it can be done effectively but it's non-trivial and not cheap - you have to very carefully select the species you use and continue monitoring the site for years, intervening as and when necessary until you've got a stable self-sustaining ecosystem. The literature I've seen relates to reclamation of former mining areas rather than oil sands, but I don't see why the principles would differ significantly. Not only that but in most canadian jurisdictions the plan for reclamation has to be filed and funded In advance. I've been to half a dozen successfully reclaimed mine sites. It's definitely achievable. ... I don't know why I even bother posting in this thread. 95% of the people have already made up their mind that anything a corp does is inherently bad and the other 5% are on the fence. HookShot posted:Isn't it also loving over Canada? I thought oil prices had to be over like $80 (or $60? something with an even number in it) for the producers here to be profitable. Last report I read about it was that most oil sands projects priced in $40 oil, but that was probably 4 years ago so $60 is reasonable now given the relatively steady high prices. HookShot posted:Oh ok, I thought when this started that was the reason our stock market had a mini hiccup. It definitely contributes - our market is highly oil weighted, but that doesn't mean the companies are going broke. It just means they lost about a third of their profit margins which will definitely haircut valuations.
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Nov 29, 2014 04:54
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Reclamation can make sites look nice but when you go in and look at the plant, animal and microbial diversity it reveals itself as superficial and not resilient. You can reclaim land but it would be a century or more before it is restored (depending on proximity to equator and the size/isolation of the reclaimed land).
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Nov 29, 2014 05:14
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HookShot posted:Oh ok, I thought when this started that was the reason our stock market had a mini hiccup. Well lots of oil companies like Chevron or Suncor had a 5%-10% dip in stock prices after the OPEC news. In general though oil companies pretty much expect fluctuations in prices over time like any big name commodity and try to keep a robust rainy day balance sheet as a result. etalian fucked around with this message at 05:25 on Nov 29, 2014 |
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Nov 29, 2014 05:23
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cowofwar posted:Reclamation can make sites look nice but when you go in and look at the plant, animal and microbial diversity it reveals itself as superficial and not resilient. You can reclaim land but it would be a century or more before it is restored (depending on proximity to equator and the size/isolation of the reclaimed land). Most mine sites are relatively small in area (even big open pits) so assuming reclamation is done properly and selenium and other poo poo not allowed to leach, biodiversity comes back pretty quickly. The tar sands, on the other hand, disturb massive swathes of highly complex peat bog that will never return to its natural state. Not to mention Alberta is destroying its water reservoirs which will eventually gently caress not only most northern communities but also the city of Edmonton. No one gives a poo poo Buskas fucked around with this message at 07:05 on Nov 29, 2014 |
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Nov 29, 2014 07:01
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I pray for a sustained oil price collapse that pushes Canada into recession and pops the housing bubble. Goooooooooooo OPEC!
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Nov 29, 2014 07:03
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Buskas posted:The tar sands, on the other hand, disturb massive swathes of highly complex peat bog that will never return to its natural state. Not to mention Alberta is destroying its water reservoirs which will eventually gently caress not only most northern communities but also the city of Edmonton. Edmonton is in a completely separate watershed. There isn't any oil development upstream of Edmonton on the North Saskatchewan.
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Nov 29, 2014 07:20
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Buskas posted:I pray for a sustained oil price collapse that pushes Canada into recession and pops the housing bubble. Goooooooooooo OPEC! If Canada lets its currency fall significantly, it would provide a nice exit for homeowners, albeit in the form of a inflationary flat tax on everyone who earns money and lives in Canada. This would coincidentally excuse the Chinese earning money overseas from paying for any of the costs of the bubble.
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Nov 29, 2014 08:05
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Buskas posted:I pray for a sustained oil price collapse that pushes Canada into recession and pops the housing bubble. Goooooooooooo OPEC! For Alberta oil revenues make a 1/3 of total budget. lol http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/28/us-markets-oil-idUSKCN0JC1LO20141128 quote:Russia's most powerful oil official Igor Sechin said oil prices could hit $60 or below by the end of the first half of next year. Options market data show speculators betting on $65 Brent by early next year.
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Nov 29, 2014 08:23
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Jumpingmanjim posted:What's causing the oil price crash anyway? What the others said is true but it's not what is happening on an emotional level. The oil price crash is Saudi Arabia taking its ball and going home.
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Nov 29, 2014 09:19
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Kalenn Istarion posted:Last report I read about it was that most oil sands projects priced in $40 oil, but that was probably 4 years ago so $60 is reasonable now given the relatively steady high prices. I swear there was a post in this thread or the Canadian politics thread that had a projection from one of the oil companies in Canada. The projection said they were assuming the oil prices were going to rise to $120 or so and they were basing all of their exploitation on that. I wish I could find it so I can see if I remember correctly.
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Nov 29, 2014 10:53
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Terebus posted:I swear there was a post in this thread or the Canadian politics thread that had a projection from one of the oil companies in Canada. The projection said they were assuming the oil prices were going to rise to $120 or so and they were basing all of their exploitation on that. I wish I could find it so I can see if I remember correctly. That was me, I think it was in the old CanPol thread around September.
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Nov 29, 2014 14:58
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Albino Squirrel posted:Although I'm not exactly a fan of the way the tar sands have been developed, northern Alberta is watered by several large rivers and not groundwater. The oil industry pollutes the hell out of the Athabasca (and, presumably, the Slave and MacKenzie rivers as well), but it is downstream of essentially all agriculture and most population. lol if you think the depletion of Alberta's aquifers doesn't have a knock-on effect on its river systems. These things do not exist exclusively of one another. Also lol if you think SAG-D and other tar sands operations in Eastern Alberta aren't using massive quantities of water from the North Saskatchewan system Alberta is a dry province that relies on the replenishment of its groundwater to sustain life and if tar sands development continues at its current pace there will be major, pervasive water issues because neither the Athabasca nor the North Saskatchewan transport nearly enough water from the Rockies on an annual basis to come anywhere near being able to both supply human needs and gargantuan industrial operations. Alberta is draining its water resources without really understanding or caring about the consequences.
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Nov 29, 2014 16:17
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Is that like an Albertan thing? Consequences be damned, that oil HAS to flow and any criticism about oil is nobody else's business and is a personal attack on every Albertan...
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Nov 29, 2014 16:27
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Professor Shark posted:Is that like an Albertan thing? Consequences be damned, that oil HAS to flow and any criticism about oil is nobody else's business and is a personal attack on every Albertan... They're just prioritising the problems of today over the water supply of the future, a mistake humanity literally has been doing since we first started building civilisations.
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Nov 29, 2014 17:00
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Terebus posted:I swear there was a post in this thread or the Canadian politics thread that had a projection from one of the oil companies in Canada. The projection said they were assuming the oil prices were going to rise to $120 or so and they were basing all of their exploitation on that. I wish I could find it so I can see if I remember correctly. Well energy companies in general pretty much know it's a commodity which will fluctuate naturally over time. The whole Saudi OPEC decision will basically torpedo more costly projects in the west and also probably wreck low cap oil companies who don't have big rainy day reserves. For shale oil extraction the break even point is $60 per barrel.
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Nov 29, 2014 18:07
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cowofwar posted:Reclamation can make sites look nice but when you go in and look at the plant, animal and microbial diversity it reveals itself as superficial and not resilient. You can reclaim land but it would be a century or more before it is restored (depending on proximity to equator and the size/isolation of the reclaimed land). A century, in the grand scheme of things, is literally irrelevant, in spite of being longer than an average human lifespan.
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Nov 29, 2014 19:02
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lol http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/the-foundations-of-canadian-housing-are-still-solid/article21832139/ quote:High household debt levels are not totally consequence-free, but nor do they guarantee doom. It is commonly imagined that Canadian debt levels have ascended to unprecedented and perhaps unsustainable heights. In reality, several other countries survive with far more leverage, including Denmark, whose households have twice the Canadian debt burden. quote:So far, there has been little evidence of encroaching darkness. Home prices rise within a comfortable range of 1 to 6 per cent a year. Household debt-servicing costs are at a multi-decade low and mortgage arrears are low and declining. Affordability is surprisingly normal as plummeting mortgage rates and rising incomes neutralize soaring home prices. Demand seems well aligned with construction and the resale market remains balanced.
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Nov 29, 2014 19:20
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-06/world-s-highest-household-debt-burden-probed-by-danish-council.htmlquote:Danish households owe their creditors 321 percent of disposable incomes, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That’s the highest ratio in the world and a level that’s prompted warnings from both the OECD and the International Monetary Fund to rein in borrowing. Danish authorities have argued that households aren’t at risk thanks to high pension and household equity levels. hahahahahahahahahahhahahahahaha
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Nov 29, 2014 19:57
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http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21600994-denmarks-property-market-built-rickety-foundations-something-rottenquote:Gregory Perdon of Arbuthnot Latham, a British private bank, believes that Danish households are living on borrowed time. Thanks to the prevalence of interest-only loans, Danes are paying down their mortgages at a rate of only 2% a year on average. When the interest-only periods end (typically ten years into the loan), their monthly payments will rise sharply. Some will not be able to afford them: the recovery has been weak, and employment has fallen in recent years. Refinancing is an option for many, but not for the most precarious borrowers, due to legal restrictions on loans of more than 80% of a property’s value.
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Nov 29, 2014 20:04
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Rising incomes? This is Canada we're talking about.
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Nov 29, 2014 20:43
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Cultural Imperial posted:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-06/world-s-highest-household-debt-burden-probed-by-danish-council.html I love how they always talk about equity as if it makes up for not having actual liquid assets or even additional monthly income. Not to mention the whole false hopes that bubbles can go on and on forever without getting popped.
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Nov 29, 2014 21:01
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Well you see lovely European country X did a thing therefore Canada is not bubble... What an rear end in a top hat.
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Nov 29, 2014 22:12
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Buskas posted:Well you see lovely European country X did a thing therefore Canada is not bubble... 300% debt loading and no bubble problems  Sweden is also in a similar bubble due to US style US estate speculation combined with cheap credit goodness.
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Nov 29, 2014 23:35
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What's with all these canadian ivy league rear end in a top hat economists? First tsur sommerville now this motherfucker. * draws straight line between two points e: how did i forget joe oliver namaste friends fucked around with this message at 00:18 on Nov 30, 2014 |
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Nov 30, 2014 00:16
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...rticle21779480/quote:Stephen Harper and his Conservatives expend a large amount of political energy on measures intended to save consumers a few bucks on mobile phone charges or unbundled cable TV channels. Oddly enough, though, they seem largely content to stand by and watch as Canadians grapple with ever rising home prices. namaste friends fucked around with this message at 00:22 on Nov 30, 2014 |
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Nov 30, 2014 00:20
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Cultural Imperial posted:Today the situation is reversed. Low interest rates make mortgages seem very affordable at first. But since inflation is also low, the real cost of your mortgage declines only slowly. The upshot is that current home buyers are likely to find themselves still scrimping a decade or more from now. This is not good news for an economy that depends heavily on consumer spending. This isn't necessarily true as long as we remain in a low interest rate/high house price inflation environment because you accumulate significant equity due to price inflation over time, meaning that you can regularly remortgage to lower rates as your LTV decreases. A lot of borrowers would have problems if we suddenly reverted to a moderate or high interest rate environment with low house price inflation, but I'm not sure that's at all likely to happen in the short-medium term.
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Nov 30, 2014 00:53
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LemonDrizzle posted:This isn't necessarily true as long as we remain in a low interest rate/high house price inflation environment because you accumulate significant equity due to price inflation over time, meaning that you can regularly remortgage to lower rates as your LTV decreases. A lot of borrowers would have problems if we suddenly reverted to a moderate or high interest rate environment with low house price inflation, but I'm not sure that's at all likely to happen in the short-medium term. Ok but what about this take? http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/66189a7a-6f76-11e4-b50f-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#ixzz3Jy6rz3Bj quote:As a sample of the madness, consider the popular concept of “affordability”. This idea is pushed by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority and seems simple common sense: affordability asks whether potential buyers have enough income to meet their mortgage repayments. That question is reasonable, of course – but it is only a first step, because it ignores inflation. If you want to read the whole article, I've got a subscription so let me know. namaste friends fucked around with this message at 01:00 on Nov 30, 2014 |
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Nov 30, 2014 00:57
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sbaldrick posted:Know and tube wiring is grandfathered, your local electrical authority will come out and check it for free and provided it's in good shape will pass the house. Basically telling insurance companies that it's safe provided you file the paperwork. A lot of insurance places will also give you a bridge at a slightly higher rate for three months or so in order for you to get the K&T out of the walls. For whomever was paying the $5000 for insurance, find out how much it is to get it all removed*. It is probably in the neighbourhood of $8000 to have someone drop in new Romex, which could translate to savings in four or five years. It also makes the house much more sellable. I'm a big advocate of DIY, but fishing all that wire through the walls is a lovely way to get some handyman cred. If you were planning to gut the place anyway, then it pays off to do it yourself. Especially as a home old enough to have K&T probably has outdated insulation too. You can get that rebated plus the heating savings over the years. More and better outlets around the house too, but it is a huge heap of work. * It doesn't really get removed, just deactivated.
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Nov 30, 2014 01:17
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How does it negative gearing work in Canada? Are there a lot of people using it to speculate in property?
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Nov 30, 2014 01:31
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Basically real estate speculation leads to dutch disease over the long run since things like small businesses get starved for credit. Why provide a small business loan, when you can just go after a more lucrative CMHC backed mortgage? quote:A housing boom can also hurt in other ways. Three U.S. economists – Indraneel Chakraborty, Itay Goldstein and Andrew MacKinlay – published a paper this fall that finds banks tend to cut back on commercial lending in strong housing markets as they focus on mortgage lending. Rather than being a spur to the economy, policies that support the housing market can actually wind up restraining growth.
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Nov 30, 2014 02:11
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LemonDrizzle posted:This isn't necessarily true as long as we remain in a low interest rate/high house price inflation environment because you accumulate significant equity due to price inflation over time, meaning that you can regularly remortgage to lower rates as your LTV decreases. But that environment is clearly unsustainable even over short time periods being that its an economic bubble while housing is multi decade debt so that isn't a viable or even reasonable 'investment' strategy. Plenty of people tried to do exactly what you're talking about during the US bubble BTW. It even became widespread 'investor' knowledge spread by RE agents and lenders to refi your troubles away. That panned out for almost no one. Even the ones where it did sorta pan out due to HAMP/HARP the people were able to keep the house but were 'house poor' with a modified loan that they could only just barely afford and was now a full recourse loan. LemonDrizzle posted:A lot of borrowers would have problems if we suddenly reverted to a moderate or high interest rate environment with low house price inflation, but I'm not sure that's at all likely to happen in the short-medium term.
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Nov 30, 2014 06:41
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:But that environment is clearly unsustainable even over short time periods being that its an economic bubble while housing is multi decade debt so that isn't a viable or even reasonable 'investment' strategy. For the Danish example there are also more stringent requirements for Loan to value, meaning eventually you couldn't just refi your problems away especially if clever homeowner is doing the home HELOC piggy bank thing too.
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Nov 30, 2014 07:27
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