Guildencrantz posted:

In happier news, social progress is still a thing in Eastern Europe! A city in my region just elected Poland's first openly gay MP to become Poland's first openly gay mayor. In quite a landslide, too, about 60-40 percent.

Apparently people aren't nearly as homophobic as you'd think from all the churchy-conservative screeching.

Mokotow posted:

This is both surprising and fantastic, especially since Slupsk is a somewhat out-of-the-way, typical smaller Polish city. I seem to recall that Biedron was second in the first vote, right? Makes it double impressive, though the Russians from Kaliningrad oblast might inerpret Biedron's win as homo-junta taking over :/

quote:

West Texas Intermediate tumbled below $65 a barrel to the lowest level since July 2009 amid speculation prices have further to drop before OPEC’s decision to maintain output slows U.S. shale supply.

Benchmark futures in New York and London slumped more than 3 percent, extending their biggest monthly loss in almost six years after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries signaled it will leave it to the market to reduce a global glut. Current prices are no guarantee of a significant decline in U.S. shale output, Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said in an interview on Nov. 28.

Oil has collapsed into a bear market as the U.S. pumps crude at the fastest rate in three decades while global demand growth slows. OPEC last week resisted calls from members including Venezuela, Iran and Iraq to reduce its production target of 30 million barrels a day at a meeting in Vienna.

“The market is in panicking mode,” Hans van Cleef, energy economist at ABN Amro Bank NV in Amsterdam, said by phone. “Prices in 2015 will be significantly lower than in 2014.”

WTI for January delivery fell as much as $2.43, or 3.7 percent, to $63.72 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $64.79 at 9:10 a.m. London time. The volume of all futures traded was more than four times the 100-day average for the time of day. Prices, which decreased 18 percent in November, are down 34 percent this year.

Cut Considered

Brent for January settlement dropped as much as $2.62, or 3.7 percent, to $67.53 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange, the lowest since October 2009. Prices declined 18 percent last month and are 38 percent lower in 2014.

Many of OPEC’s 12 members intended to trim 1.5 million barrels, or 5 percent, from their collective quota, with non-member producers contributing an additional 500,000 barrels in reductions, according to Zanganeh’s account of the group’s meeting in the Austrian capital. Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi cited the threat from U.S. shale as the main justification for maintaining the output limit, Zanganeh said.

“It’s clear that a production war is on and it will be survival of the fittest,” Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago, said by e-mail. WTI “will see a test of $60 soon,” he said.

Shale Boom

The U.S. oil boom has been driven by a combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, which has unlocked supplies from shale formations including the Bakken in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford in Texas. The technique is typically more expensive than pumping from conventional reservoirs.

Only about 4 percent of U.S. shale output needs $80 a barrel or more to be profitable, according to the International Energy Agency. Most production in the Bakken formation, one of the main drivers of shale oil output, remains commercially viable at or below $42, the Paris-based International Energy Agency estimates. It expects U.S. supply to rise by almost 1 million barrels a day next year, with increasing flows to international markets.

OPEC, which supplies about 40 percent of the world’s oil, exceeded its official target for a sixth straight month in November, even after reducing output. The group pumped 30.56 million barrels a day, 424,000 barrels a day less than in October, a Bloomberg News survey of oil companies, producers and analysts showed.

Budget Deficit

Crude’s slump has roiled markets from Nigeria’s naira to Venezuelan bonds and the Russian ruble as it threatens the revenue of producing countries. Prices have dropped below the level needed by ten OPEC member states to balance their budgets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Iraq, OPEC’s second-biggest producer, formed a panel to look into ways to cut next year’s proposed budget deficit to a “realistic level,” according to a cabinet statement released over the weekend. The current spending draft is based on oil prices at $70 a barrel, Obaid Mahal, a government official, said by phone yesterday.

Russia will cope with the price fall and doesn’t see “anything so extraordinary in what is happening,” President Vladimir Putin said on Nov. 28. The world’s second-largest oil exporter, which relies on crude for almost half its income, is revising down estimates after basing next year’s budget on oil at $100 a barrel, Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev told reporters in Moscow the same day.

‘Opportunistic Buying’

“We’ve seen the emergence of some opportunistic buying by the Chinese,” Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group in Sydney, said by phone. “If that’s ongoing, that could be supportive.”

China’s efforts to boost emergency stockpiles may increase imports by as much as 700,000 barrels a day in 2015, according to Energy Aspects Ltd., a London-based consultant. That’s more than half the global glut forecast by Citigroup Inc.

U.S. production expanded to 9.08 million barrels a day through Nov. 21, the most in weekly records that started in January 1983, data from the Energy Information Administration show. Crude inventories climbed to 383 million, according to the Energy Department’s statistical arm.

quote:

Only about 4 percent of U.S. shale output needs $80 a barrel or more to be profitable, according to the International Energy Agency. Most production in the Bakken formation, one of the main drivers of shale oil output, remains commercially viable at or below $42, the Paris-based International Energy Agency estimates.

Lucy Heartfilia posted:

Hmm, this is new information. If this is true than Russia and others are hosed.

quote:

MINSK, 1 December (BelTA) – The all-round cooperation between Belarus and Kaliningrad Oblast is increasingly vibrant, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said as he met with Governor of Kaliningrad Oblast Nikolai Tsukanov, BelTA has learned.

According to the President, starting from 2010 the bilateral trade has been on the rise. It reached almost $300 million in 2013. “But there were times when the bilateral trade made up $0.5 billion. I think we can set a task to reach the high level that we have had before. It means that we can reach this volume of bilateral trade. In my opinion, we should do our utmost to fulfill this task,” Alexander Lukashenko said.

“Certain enemies of ours, including those in Russia and Belarus, say that Lukashenko wants to attach Kaliningrad Oblast to Belarus. Believe me, I do not have such plans. Since the Soviet times Belarus has always supported Kaliningrad Oblast. We have never thought that this is an alien region. Therefore, it is not important what country Kaliningrad Oblast is part of,” the head of state noted.

Governor of Kaliningrad Oblast Nikolai Tsukanov also stressed that it is feasible to increase the bilateral trade to $0.5 billion. “Let's set this task,” he said.

Mokotow posted:

This is both surprising and fantastic, especially since Slupsk is a somewhat out-of-the-way, typical smaller Polish city. I seem to recall that Biedron was second in the first vote, right? Makes it double impressive, though the Russians from Kaliningrad oblast might inerpret Biedron's win as homo-junta taking over :/

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

How would the "We want to call Kaliningrad Königsberg again" people feel about having a gay mayor close by?

sparatuvs posted:

I don't know if this should go here or in the awful kick starter thread but, you can now back the official Maidan 2014 board game! complete with helmets made out of pots and burning tyres.

https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/260702799/maydan-tactical-board-game/description

quote:

The rouble nosedived on Monday, suffering its worst daily fall since Russia’s 1998 crisis amid renewed fears over the impact of tumbling oil prices on the country’s economy.
The currency fell nearly 9 per cent against the dollar at one stage before staging a rally. However, at 12.30pm GMT, the currency was trading at Rbs52.3 against the US currency, still down 5.8 per cent on the day.
The plummeting currency raises the pressure on the central bank to resume market intervention, from which it had abstained since floating the rouble in early November.

Lucy Heartfilia posted:

Hmm, this is new information. If this is true then Russia and others are hosed.

Celexi posted:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4bb50fcc-7937-11e4-9567-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3Kef6yoCd



E:

[timg]http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/aaa84cf0-c208-4599-aef0-7d283d86a3b2.img][/timg]

Finlander posted:

Man, I knew the rouble was going down, but almost 60% in half a year is pretty dire.
Will this really help any with curbing Russian warmongering? They're already shutting down hospitals to keep their terror machine working, so it's not like Putin won't cut back on everything before even thinking about getting out of Ukraine, let alone giving up his mansions. How much lower will it need to go? And once it does get low enough, will Putin react with more war?

TeodorMorozov posted:

Can you find these cockroaches in Russian police HQ, like I found it in Ukrainian one?

quote:

Russia is forced to withdraw from the South Stream project due to the EU’s unwillingness to support the pipeline, and gas flows will be redirected to other customers, Vladimir Putin said after talks with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"We believe that the stance of the European Commission was counterproductive. In fact, the European Commission not only provided no help in implementation of [the South Stream pipeline], but, as we see, obstacles were created to its implementation. Well, if Europe doesn’t want it implemented, it won’t be implemented,” the Russian president said.

According to Putin, the Russian gas “will be retargeted to other regions of the world, which will be achieved, among other things, through the promotion and accelerated implementation of projects involving liquefied natural gas.”

“We’ll be promoting other markets and Europe won’t receive those volumes, at least not from Russia. We believe that it doesn’t meet the economic interests of Europe and it harms our cooperation. But such is the choice of our European friends,” he said.

The South Stream project is at the stage when “the construction of the pipeline system in the Black Sea must begin,” but Russia still hasn’t received an approval for the project from Bulgaria, the Russian president said.

Investing hundreds of millions of dollars into the pipeline, which would have to stop when it reaches Bulgarian waters, is “just absurd, I hope everybody understands that,” he said.

Putin believes that Bulgaria “isn’t acting like an independent state” by delaying the South Stream project, which would be profitable for the country.

He advised the Bulgarian leadership “to demand loss of profit damages from the European Commission” as the country could have been receiving around 400 million euros annually through gas transit.

Putin said that Russia is ready to build a new pipeline to meet Turkey’s growing gas demand, which may include a special hub on the Turkish-Greek border for customers in southern Europe.

For now, the supply of Russian gas to Turkey will be raised by 3 billion cubic meters via the already operating Blue Stream pipeline, he said. Last year, 13.7 bcm of gas were supplied to Turkeyvia Blue Stream, according to Reuters.

Moscow will also reduce the gas price for Turkish customers by 6 percent from January 1, 2015, Putin said.

“We are ready to further reduce gas prices along with the implementation of our joint large-scale projects," he added.

quote:

Gazprom CEO Aleksey Miller said the energy giant will build a massive gas pipeline that will travel from Russia, transit through Turkey, and stop at the Greek border – giving Russia access to the Southern European market.

The pipeline will have an annual capacity of 63 billion cubic meters. A total of 14 bcm will be delivered to Turkey, which is Gazprom’s second biggest customer in the region after Germany.

The new project will include a special hub on the Turkish-Greek border for customers in southern Europe.

While the pipeline will be registered as a Russian company, Miller said that Gazprom will “consider offers from Turkish partners if they express an interest in buying into the project.”

For now, the supply of Russian gas to Turkey will be raised by 3 billion cubic meters via the already operating Blue Stream pipeline, Vladimir Putin earlier said during a joint press conference with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Last year, 13.7 bcm of gas were supplied to Turkeyvia Blue Stream, according to Reuters.

Moscow will also reduce the gas price for Turkish customers by 6 percent from January 1, 2015, Putin said.

quote:

He advised the Bulgarian leadership “to demand loss of profit damages from the European Commission” as the country could have been receiving around 400 million euros annually through gas transit

Fabulous Knight posted:

Gazprom to build new 63 bcm Black Sea pipeline to Turkey

A Buttery Pastry posted:

The oil pipeline will actually be a pneumatic tube system, allowing Russian special forces to stealthily deploy in Turkey and capture Istanbul Constantinople Tsargrad Putingrad before anyone can react.

3peat posted:

Romania gently caress yeah!

Forgall posted:

This looks like Dees photoshop.

3peat posted:

Lucy Heartfilia posted:

Hmm, this is new information. If this is true then Russia and others are hosed.
            /

Dreissi posted:

Anyone want to speculate about when oil prices might stabilize? Everything I've read so far says 'it will keep going down well into next year' but I've not seen any analysis behind those projections.

My Imaginary GF posted:

As soon as a few of the world's major producers collapse; then, their insurgencies will still get the single-digit % profit margins.

What I'm saying is that ISIS' oil sales are actually the real market rate for oil, and that anyone could've seen this price decline coming if they knew energy politics and understood where to look. I blame China.

Zuhzuhzombie!! posted:

Just wait till they really start hitting up the Saudis for oil.

Dreissi posted:

Anyone want to speculate about when oil prices might stabilize? Everything I've read so far says 'it will keep going down well into next year' but I've not seen any analysis behind those projections.

Discendo Vox posted:

Please stop, MIGF. This is one of the threads I retreat to when the hivemind in politoons and forwards become too much.

My Imaginary GF posted:

As soon as a few of the world's major producers collapse; then, their insurgencies will still get the single-digit % profit margins.

What I'm saying is that ISIS' oil sales are actually the real market rate for oil, and that anyone could've seen this price decline coming if they knew energy politics and understood where to look. I blame China.

Dreissi posted:

1. ISIS is most definitely not selling for the actual market rate for oil. Anyone that has to deal with the black market has to deal below market value, unless the commodity itself is illegal. Otherwise there is no reason at all to buy ISIS oil.

2. The US shale oil extraction regime puts out way more oil than ISIS could ever hope to produce. Why aren't you referencing that? Seems like a pretty large factor.

3. Agree on China. Any economic slow-down could be pretty weird for the energy markets (not that there's an example in the past 20 years to compare it to).

quote:

The incident of Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel, and the dog is a famous one. It was 2007 and Merkel, Germany's Chancellor, was visiting Putin at his presidential residence in Sochi to discuss energy trade. Putin, surely aware of Merkel's well-known fear of dogs, waited until the press gathered in the room, then called for his black Labrador to be sent in. The Russian president watched in unconcealed glee as the dog sniffed at Merkel, who sat frozen in fear.

Later, in discussing the incident with a group of reporters, Merkel attempted an explanation of Putin's behavior. Her quote, reported in George Packer's recent profile of Merkel in the New Yorker, is one of the most pithily succinct insights into Putin and the psychology of his 14-year reign that I have read:

"I understand why he has to do this — to prove he's a man," Merkel said. "He's afraid of his own weakness. Russia has nothing, no successful politics or economy. All they have is this."

quote:

Members of the National Electoral Commission waived the functions carried out in the NEC - announced the President of the Commission Stefan Jaworski after administration of pooled results of the second round of local elections

Voter turnout in the second round of the elections mayors and presidents of cities was 39.97 percent. - Said the head of NEC Stefan Jaworski.

The right to vote, there were 16 060 595 people, including 737 EU citizens with Polish citizenship. Voting cards issued 6 419 905 voters, including 430 EU citizens. Participated in the elections (cast valid votes) - 6 419 036 voters, that voter turnout was 39.97 per cent. - Said the head of NEC.

Valid votes were cast 6 339 491, or 98.76 per cent. the total number of votes cast. Invalid votes were cast - 79 545, which is 1.24 percent. the total number of votes cast - said the head of NEC.

Invalid votes because of the failure of the "X" was given 35 470, which is 44.59 per cent. the total number of invalid votes. Votes were invalid because putting two characters "X" erected 36 795, or 46.26 per cent. the total number of invalid votes. Invalid votes were cast for other reasons 7280 - 9.15 percent. the total number of invalid votes

In the second round of elections 890 elected mayors and mayors from 1,773 candidates; including in the seven municipalities was only one candidate.

In total, 889 mayors and mayors

In the second round of elections wótjów selected a total of 889, town and city mayors - Jaworski said. Not selected mayor in one municipality - Moskorzew in the province. Świętokrzyskie.

He said the chairman of NEC selected mayors and mayors in 845 municipalities, which are not towns with county rights, and 44 mayors with county rights.

Not selected mayor in one municipality - the municipality Moskorzew, włoszczowski district, province. Kielce, because in the second round of elections was a candidate and does not receive more than half of the valid votes cast. In this municipality mayor elections will, in accordance with the law, the municipal council.

"I do not deserve to be so massive criticism"

Jaworski reminded that during the local elections "demonstrated the failure of a computer system, which is complicated and significantly delayed the announcement of results of the vote" of 16 November. "NEC ensures that revealed the failure did not affect the fairness of the electoral activities conducted and respect warranties set forth in the Code of the election," - he stressed.

"We are sorry because of the situation. After all, in our opinion, does not deserve to be so massive criticism, criticism that inflicted on the foundations of Polish democracy and Polish electoral system, quite authoritative in the world, a unique system, because organized with significant involving judges "- said Jaworski.

He also stressed that the judges accepted the NEC amazement criticism from a number of MPs who sit in parliament for several years and created or co-created right to vote.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Members of the National Electoral Commission of Poland resigned after failures in the computer system.

http://www.rp.pl/artykul/1140279,1161549-Czlonkowie-PKW-podali-sie-do-dymisji.html

Tias posted:

The incident of Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel, and the dog is a famous one. It was 2007 and Merkel, Germany's Chancellor, was visiting Putin at his presidential residence in Sochi to discuss energy trade. Putin, surely aware of Merkel's well-known fear of dogs, waited until the press gathered in the room, then called for his black Labrador to be sent in. The Russian president watched in unconcealed glee as the dog sniffed at Merkel, who sat frozen in fear.

Later, in discussing the incident with a group of reporters, Merkel attempted an explanation of Putin's behavior. Her quote, reported in George Packer's recent profile of Merkel in the New Yorker, is one of the most pithily succinct insights into Putin and the psychology of his 14-year reign that I have read:

"I understand why he has to do this — to prove he's a man," Merkel said. "He's afraid of his own weakness. Russia has nothing, no successful politics or economy. All they have is this."

jonnypeh posted:

I believe that her statement is very accurate, not just regarding Putin but many men of former eastern bloc. Leading to... I believe this describes it best: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Uzu58N-Sso

The Eastern European Men School.

Karmalis posted:

That was actually a viral video for a Lithuanian mineral water drink "Vytautas". And the same people did this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fG3whNsg4MI

A Pale Horse posted:

Since this is google translated and some of it is hard to understand maybe I can clarify a little: The entire electoral commission resigned because the vote counting from the first round took much longer than it should have, up to 12 days in some areas because of the catastrophic failure of the vote tallying computer program. Additionally almost 20% of the total votes were invalidated due to errors of voters. The criticism of the electoral commission is twofold: first that they waited way too long before deciding to go to a manual vote count once it was clear the automated system failed. The second criticism is that they in adequately informed voters of the correct voting procedure resulting in such a high number of invalid votes. The electoral commission's defense is that the parliament are the ones who mandated the changes to the electoral system in 2011 that resulted in these problems and are now trying to blame the NEC.