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Internet Webguy posted:I think Romney being normal is his entire problem. He's too normal. He's aggressively normal. No he's not, he's bland. A normal person has some strong interests, a few vices, and some powerful emotions. Romney never seemed to show any of that.
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Dec 2, 2014 17:40
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evilweasel posted:Webb is really the only other 'serious' candidate and nobody's going to win the Democratic nomination attacking Hillary from the right. There's also the possibility that Webb doesn't run as a Democrat. He won't win that way either, but he's been very critical of the party in recent years and it shouldn't be ruled out.
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Dec 2, 2014 17:41
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Joementum posted:There's also the possibility that Webb doesn't run as a Democrat. Yeah, he wouldn't win but he sure could throw a wrench into things. That's definitely something to keep an eye on.
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Dec 2, 2014 17:44
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evilweasel posted:Yeah but it's the unofficial declarations of intent that I'm most interested in. I just don't see anyone who can beat Hillary - granted, many people didn't think Obama could either but he was at least credible. I don't see the credible challengers here. I could see Warren playing that sort of role (though I don't think she'd be successful) but I've seen no indication she is actually interested in running. I don't see anyone else - Webb is really the only other 'serious' candidate and nobody's going to win the Democratic nomination attacking Hillary from the right. No one can face her  Seriously Obama and Clinton were head and shoulders above the rest and everyone knew it. Nobody as heavy has come out in the intervening years. And as you say, D party mechanics don't involve tearing moderates apart. It's over with unless she sacrifices a baby on TV.
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Dec 2, 2014 17:45
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evilweasel posted:Yeah, he wouldn't win but he sure could throw a wrench into things. That's definitely something to keep an eye on. I'm not sure he would actually wrench things - he'd basically be a straw bogeyman with dumb opinions on race that Clinton could beat on to shore up her credentials with the actual Democratic base while not actually shifting any policy stances.
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Dec 2, 2014 17:48
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The Warszawa posted:I'm not sure he would actually wrench things - he'd basically be a straw bogeyman with dumb opinions on race that Clinton could beat on to shore up her credentials with the actual Democratic base while not actually shifting any policy stances. I mean as an independent. He's just get thrashed in the primary, but an independent candidate like Webb runs the risk of peeling off enough Democratic support in states like Virginia or Ohio to throw the general.
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Dec 2, 2014 17:51
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evilweasel posted:I mean as an independent. He's just get thrashed in the primary, but an independent candidate like Webb runs the risk of peeling off enough Democratic support in states like Virginia or Ohio to throw the general. Eh, I'm still not sure - Webb's demographic may be registered as Democrats but are they expected to vote Democratic at the national level? Assuming he even gets on the ballot.
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Dec 2, 2014 17:53
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The Warszawa posted:Eh, I'm still not sure - Webb's demographic may be registered as Democrats but are they expected to vote Democratic at the national level? I think there's a lot of "moderates" who aren't really all that liberal, but got turned off by the incompetence of the Bush years. After the horror of the Kenyan Usurper I don't think many Republicans are going to be willing to abandon their guy for a third-party candidate who won't win, but given Obama's approval ratings there's clearly a chunk of people who voted for him but are somewhat unhappy with him and would be a target for someone like Webb. But you do have a good point that if he has crossover appeal it may be premature to assume he'd draw mostly from voters who would otherwise break D.
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Dec 2, 2014 18:02
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evilweasel posted:Yeah but it's the unofficial declarations of intent that I'm most interested in. I just don't see anyone who can beat Hillary - granted, many people didn't think Obama could either but he was at least credible. I don't see the credible challengers here. I could see Warren playing that sort of role (though I don't think she'd be successful) but I've seen no indication she is actually interested in running. I don't see anyone else - Webb is really the only other 'serious' candidate and nobody's going to win the Democratic nomination attacking Hillary from the right. Webb attacking on foreign policy/anti war would be coming from the left.
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Dec 2, 2014 18:05
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Fried Chicken posted:Webb attacking on foreign policy/anti war would be coming from the left. He can attack on the left on those issues but his politics are solidly to Hillary's right and his base of support would be the right, not the left.
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Dec 2, 2014 18:06
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By that CNN poll I'm seeing 45% for the moderate/business wing of the party (Romney, Bush, Christie, Ryan, Kasich), and 43% for Everyone Else. IMO this sends up huge warning flags for those of us hoping for a crazy candidate, as the clowncar vote will likely split and the businessfolk won't fight it out too much, being more likely to coalesce around a single candidate.
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Dec 2, 2014 18:16
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Christie is far and away the best politician in the Republican field, and the most adept at tapping into the raw id that drives the modern republican party. Unfortunately or fortunately he's also a giant (lol fat) walking stereoytpe of the Yankee rear end in a top hat and I don't know how that will play outside of the northeast. I could see a Bush/Christie ticket being very competitive in 2014. I still think Jeb will be the GOP nominee and also, still, for some reason, don't think that Hillary will be the Democratic nominee. Aliquid posted:By that CNN poll I'm seeing 45% for the moderate/business wing of the party (Romney, Bush, Christie, Ryan, Kasich), and 43% for Everyone Else. IMO this sends up huge warning flags for those of us hoping for a crazy candidate, as the clowncar vote will likely split and the businessfolk won't fight it out too much, being more likely to coalesce around a single candidate. They'll just put the "clown car" candidate in the VP slot if it comes to that but I'm still not entirely certain that the GOP is convinced they need far right the crazy vote. They know those people will vote "R" every time and I'm quite certain the GOP establishment is quite sick of them and knows that all they all they have to really do is pander to them a bit. BiggerBoat fucked around with this message at 18:25 on Dec 2, 2014 |
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Dec 2, 2014 18:20
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Aliquid posted:By that CNN poll I'm seeing 45% for the moderate/business wing of the party (Romney, Bush, Christie, Ryan, Kasich), and 43% for Everyone Else. IMO this sends up huge warning flags for those of us hoping for a crazy candidate, as the clowncar vote will likely split and the businessfolk won't fight it out too much, being more likely to coalesce around a single candidate. It's still too early and people are mostly going on name recognition. Even when the primaries start you'll see this spread because only hardcore partisans (a small minority) are paying any attention. As Weigel said on Twitter this morning, the Republican poll is basically a count of who's appeared on Hannity the most times in the last month.
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Dec 2, 2014 18:48
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evilweasel posted:At what point did it really become clear Obama was running in 2008? I keep feeling like if there was going to be a Hillary challenger I'd sort of know who they were by now, but I realized that don't actually have any real basis for that belief because I apparently have the memory of a goldfish and can't remember the leadup to the primaries in 2008 well enough. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmWlrtpqp40
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Dec 2, 2014 19:11
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Aliquid posted:By that CNN poll I'm seeing 45% for the moderate/business wing of the party (Romney, Bush, Christie, Ryan, Kasich), and 43% for Everyone Else. IMO this sends up huge warning flags for those of us hoping for a crazy candidate, as the clowncar vote will likely split and the businessfolk won't fight it out too much, being more likely to coalesce around a single candidate. I just realized how possible it is that Romney will lose to the first black President ever and the first woman President ever. What a way to go down in history.
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Dec 2, 2014 19:17
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SedanChair posted:No one can face her You are 100% correct.
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Dec 2, 2014 19:24
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Yup, Rand Paul's campaign is considering challenging a state law in court and arguing that it interferes with the power of the Federal government.quote:Another would be to challenge the law in court and argue the statute is unconstitutional when applied to federal races. "We believe that it cannot apply to federal offices," [Rand Paul campaign strategist Doug] Stafford said. I know that nobody other than extreme political junkies are going to care about the hypocrisy here, but I still find it funny.
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Dec 2, 2014 19:34
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SedanChair posted:No one can face her Was Bill Clinton known outside of the south in 1991? I don't remember much about his first campaign but I remember people referring to him as a dark horse (apparently he didn't even officially announce he was running until October which seems insane).
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Dec 2, 2014 19:36
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Joementum posted:Yup, Rand Paul's campaign is considering challenging a state law in court and arguing that it interferes with the power of the Federal government. You know that scene in 22 Jump Street where Channing Tatum realizes Jonah Hill banged Ice Cube's daughter? That's me right now. Also spoilers for 22 Jump Street you all should definitely see it. smg77 posted:Was Bill Clinton known outside of the south in 1991? I don't remember much about his first campaign but I remember people referring to him as a dark horse (apparently he didn't even officially announce he was running until October which seems insane). 1988 Democratic National Convention speech - he was known and not particularly well. Also the news cycle didn't work the same way back then.
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Dec 2, 2014 19:37
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Internet Webguy posted:I think Romney being normal is his entire problem. He's too normal. He's aggressively normal. Mitt's just so normal and average! (He's not normal. He's a loving rich vulture who believes everyone has access to the immense wealth he's been lucky enough to be born into. See also: "You want to start a business? Ask your parents for a loan!" or "I was 'poor' in college too!" And even worse than that, as someone else said, he's bland. mayo on white bread bland) FilthyImp fucked around with this message at 19:41 on Dec 2, 2014 |
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Dec 2, 2014 19:37
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If Hillary is nominated and loses in 2016 then Kirsten Gillibrand is a mortal lock to be the nominee in 2020.
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Dec 2, 2014 19:38
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amanasleep posted:If Hillary is nominated and loses in 2016 then Kirsten Gillibrand is a mortal lock to be the nominee in 2020. There's basically no such thing as a mortal lock for a midterm election. Candidates who are so strong to be a mortal lock want to wait four years when there's no incumbent rather than waste their shot on what will likely be a failure.
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Dec 2, 2014 19:39
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Imagine if Hillary Clinton had announced in the fall of 2007 that she wasn't running. That's what Mario Cuomo did in 1991, which is why the field was a mess.
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Dec 2, 2014 19:44
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Romney is the comedy/schadenfreude option we all want to be nominated again because he'll never be President and it's funny to see him try.
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Dec 2, 2014 19:45
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smg77 posted:Was Bill Clinton known outside of the south in 1991? I don't remember much about his first campaign but I remember people referring to him as a dark horse (apparently he didn't even officially announce he was running until October which seems insane). I'm trying to find an old video of an infomercial he did for the Dems, I want to say in 1984? He talked about the economy and had a roundtable discussion with Sam Nunn and others. He was marked as a prospect since then at least.
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Dec 2, 2014 19:46
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Joementum posted:Imagine if Hillary Clinton had announced in the fall of 2007 that she wasn't running. That's what Mario Cuomo did in 1991, which is why the field was a mess. Did you ever read Stephanopoulos's memoir? Because Clinton tried to put him on the Court and Andrew Cuomo hosed the dog so hard PETA was formed. God George Stephanopoulos used to do poo poo that mattered.
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Dec 2, 2014 19:53
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The Warszawa posted:Did you ever read Stephanopoulos's memoir? Because Clinton tried to put him on the Court and Andrew Cuomo hosed the dog so hard PETA was formed. I haven't seen The War Room. Is it worth watching?
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Dec 2, 2014 19:56
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Ninjasaurus posted:I haven't seen The War Room. Is it worth watching? I really like it, but I maintain that the best documentary of the 92 Clinton primary campaign is still Primary Colors. Adrian Lester is tremendously underrated and Billy Bob Thorton owns it. Also, if you want to see the next great hope of the Democratic Party in action, watch Street Fight.
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Dec 2, 2014 20:00
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Joementum posted:Yup, Rand Paul's campaign is considering challenging a state law in court and arguing that it interferes with the power of the Federal government.  Man, I really hope this is brought up during his run. Is there a single elected Libertarian at the state level or above that is consistent? Ninjasaurus posted:I haven't seen The War Room. Is it worth watching? Yeah, especially if you want to see Stephanopolous and Carville in their prime. Also, A Perfect Candidate is worth seeing. Sir Tonk fucked around with this message at 20:06 on Dec 2, 2014 |
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Dec 2, 2014 20:04
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The Warszawa posted:You know that scene in 22 Jump Street where Channing Tatum realizes Jonah Hill banged Ice Cube's daughter? Just gonna leave this here for you. It really is almost too good to be true isn't it? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cg-BrGC5lJY
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Dec 2, 2014 20:12
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evilweasel posted:There's basically no such thing as a mortal lock for a midterm election. Candidates who are so strong to be a mortal lock want to wait four years when there's no incumbent rather than waste their shot on what will likely be a failure. It's true that she's young enough to wait. I noticed she pointedly turned down an offer to be DSCC chair for 2016 though. Wonder if she's keeping her options open or if she simply knows that the post is deadly poison.
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Dec 2, 2014 20:34
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Chamale posted:No he's not, he's bland. A normal person has some strong interests, a few vices, and some powerful emotions. Romney never seemed to show any of that. FilthyImp posted:(He's not normal. He's a loving rich vulture who believes everyone has access to the immense wealth he's been lucky enough to be born into. See also: "You want to start a business? Ask your parents for a loan!" or "I was 'poor' in college too!" And even worse than that, as someone else said, he's bland. mayo on white bread bland) You guys clearly don't get it. For Mormons being bland, white and rich is as normal as normal gets.
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Dec 2, 2014 20:37
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The Warszawa posted:I really like it, but I maintain that the best documentary of the 92 Clinton primary campaign is still Primary Colors. Adrian Lester is tremendously underrated and Billy Bob Thorton owns it. If you want amazing Booker hagiography Brick City is even better.
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Dec 2, 2014 20:46
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amanasleep posted:If you want amazing Booker hagiography Brick City is even better.  in case it wasn't clear (though I like Booker, certainly more than most around here).
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Dec 2, 2014 20:59
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The Warszawa posted:
I like Booker because he's a gifted politician with charisma who plays the game for team D. He has many awful political stances which may or may not be sincere.
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Dec 2, 2014 22:05
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Chamale posted:No he's not, he's bland. A normal person has some strong interests, a few vices, and some powerful emotions. Romney never seemed to show any of that. Romney has all of those: strong emotions about Ferguson and strong interests in money, sneaking cans of diet rc cole, and a great sense of shame in front of Ann. If anything, I'd say his vices are too normal. At least admit to your coke habit at Bain and make yourself appear a flawed underdog, Americans love a flawed underdog narrative. Heck, they'd love a McCain strikes back narrative in 2016.
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Dec 2, 2014 22:05
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My Imaginary GF posted:Romney has all of those: strong emotions about Ferguson and strong interests in money, sneaking cans of diet rc cole, and a great sense of shame in front of Ann. Think how different our national political landscape would be if people didn't live so goddam long. Romney and Hillary were born in 1947; McCain in 1936. All the leading candidates are mammoth-old and would all be long dead or incapacitated if it weren't for advancing standards of living. And that's not even considering the Supreme Court!
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Dec 2, 2014 22:13
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My Imaginary GF posted:Romney has all of those: strong emotions about Ferguson and strong interests in money, sneaking cans of diet rc cole, and a great sense of shame in front of Ann. Ahahahahaha As always, Rahm has his finger on the pulse of the American electorate.
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Dec 2, 2014 22:15
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amanasleep posted:I like Booker because he's a gifted politician with charisma who plays the game for team D. He has many awful political stances which may or may not be sincere. He's been above average in the Senate so far. There hasn't been any major bills dealing with financial institutions, which is the area he may be bad on. His campaign platform is moderately anti-big banks, but not even Chuck Schumer is explicitly pro-big banks, so we'll have to see when it comes up.
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Dec 2, 2014 22:19
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My Imaginary GF posted:If anything, I'd say his vices are too normal. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/for-romney-no-coffee-but-coffee-ice-cream/ posted:(AP) NANTUCKET, Mass. - Mitt Romney joins other observant Mormons in shunning alcohol and coffee. He apparently draws the line at ice cream.
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Dec 2, 2014 22:19
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