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A Pale Horse
Jul 29, 2007

Mokotow posted:

Come to think of it, it's surprising it took that long for PKW to collapse, since it's a purely administrative institution that is run by a board of retired high court judges. Being a judge, even a high court one, doesn't mean you're a good administrator. The board is needed for checking voting legality and giving its seal of approval, but probably shouldn't manage things like IT systems. Most of the board members are in their seventies and probbably never worked with computers during their careers, and here they are, responsible for introducing a vote calculation and management system for a 40 million country. A project like that would challenge and keep a huge IT company busy for years.

I completely agree. Its really outside their professional competence and should be handled by an independent contractor conforming to a set of regulations put forth by the PKW and then checked by another independent contractor or by some sort of technical adviser to the PKW. I'm absolutely fine with them resigning as a result of the shambolic elections but I hope that whoever is called up into the new Commission is given more time to implement an automated system than until the next elections which are already in May of next year. Until the new system has been thoroughly vetted and tested we can continue to hand count votes like we have since the fall of communism.

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VoltairePunk
Dec 26, 2012

I have become Umlaut, destroyer of words
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqJdQYGe0sA

Where have I seen this? Oh yeah...
* Hezbollah
* Hamas
* Russian terrorists

Firing from behind buildings with people in them.

Edit:
on 16th second one can hear a child's voice saying "Pretty".

TeodorMorozov
May 27, 2013

Karmalis posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqJdQYGe0sA

Where have I seen this? Oh yeah...
* Hezbollah
* Hamas
* Russian terrorists

Firing from behind buildings with people in them.

Edit:
on 16th second one can hear a child's voice saying "Pretty".

Just a "Plamenniy privet" for this

http://youtu.be/De2wpmAuM-4

"I know this is wrong. But I feel good"(c)

TeodorMorozov fucked around with this message at 13:21 on Dec 2, 2014

cinci zoo sniper
Mar 15, 2013




To those wondering, 'plamenniy privet' means heartfelt greetings in English.

VoltairePunk
Dec 26, 2012

I have become Umlaut, destroyer of words

TeodorMorozov posted:

Just a "Plamenniy privet" for this

http://youtu.be/De2wpmAuM-4

"I know this is wrong. But I feel good"(c)

A dude walking and saying "This is how the Ukrainian army greets us" without any actual proof is a bit silly.
In the video he shows bullet marks on buildings and mentions School 112, which I'm presuming is this:

http://school112.org.ua/

which is here:

http://goo.gl/NL0obT

I never knew the Ukrainian army was so deep into Donetsk. Also, he's saying the attack was done at 00:00 and there's no services at all, no smoke, nothing that shows this is a recent happening.

I might be wrong on a few cases, I'm no Brown Moses in these matters, but hell Teddy, you're just putting any bullshit you find.
Go buy a puppy, it will help you be a better person. And hurry, ruble's going to explode soon.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

A Pale Horse posted:

Since this is google translated and some of it is hard to understand maybe I can clarify a little: The entire electoral commission resigned because the vote counting from the first round took much longer than it should have, up to 12 days in some areas because of the catastrophic failure of the vote tallying computer program. Additionally almost 20% of the total votes were invalidated due to errors of voters. The criticism of the electoral commission is twofold: first that they waited way too long before deciding to go to a manual vote count once it was clear the automated system failed. The second criticism is that they in adequately informed voters of the correct voting procedure resulting in such a high number of invalid votes. The electoral commission's defense is that the parliament are the ones who mandated the changes to the electoral system in 2011 that resulted in these problems and are now trying to blame the NEC.

I am a bit curious: what was so confusing about the voting procedure? 20% invalid rate is insane.

VoltairePunk
Dec 26, 2012

I have become Umlaut, destroyer of words

OddObserver posted:

I am a bit curious: what was so confusing about the voting procedure? 20% invalid rate is insane.

This: http://what.thedailywtf.com/t/polish-electorial-calculator/4963

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

That's what's wrong with the software, but it sounds like something was confusing about voting procedures?

Edit: this does mention something about wrong instructions? A bit unclear as to what it looks like.

OddObserver fucked around with this message at 14:41 on Dec 2, 2014

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

OddObserver posted:

I am a bit curious: what was so confusing about the voting procedure? 20% invalid rate is insane.

Under-funding of the electoral authority, sudden decision in favor of program implementation, and going with Nabimo lowest bid for coding.

E:

The deal was in before bidding began; Nabimo paid someone well enough to get a contract to gently caress up a national election.

My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 14:40 on Dec 2, 2014

Sandweed
Sep 7, 2006

All your friends are me.

Maybe the "free" market shouldn't be used to hold elections?

TeodorMorozov
May 27, 2013

Karmalis posted:

I might be wrong on a few cases, I'm no Brown Moses in these matters, but hell Teddy, you're just putting any bullshit you find.

This is Anatoliy Sharij's stuff. He is ukrainian journalist, man with the name and reputation. Not an anonymous guy from the tread who speculate on youtube.

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

OddObserver posted:

I am a bit curious: what was so confusing about the voting procedure? 20% invalid rate is insane.

There were 5 voting cards, each for different adminstartion level; I myself invalidaded two of my votes because I didn't give a poo poo about the high-level ones, and only voted on local-level elections. From my perspective, the higher level, voivodship ones, are all divided between the major parties, of whom none represent my views. It's hard to say what exactly the 20% invalid vote rate stands for - is it for all 5 elections combined, or for one particular one?

VoltairePunk
Dec 26, 2012

I have become Umlaut, destroyer of words

TeodorMorozov posted:

This is Anatoliy Sharij's stuff. He is ukrainian journalist, man with the name and reputation. Not an anonymous guy from the tread who speculate on youtube.

For all it matters, he could be the Pope and I wouldn't care.
The video is rubbish, just an accusation showing holes and blast marks with no clarity of the actual time, date and validity of those marks.
Prove me wrong and I'll apologize.

Warcabbit
Apr 26, 2008

Wedge Regret
Ruble down to 53.46/dollar. Oil down to 71 bucks a barrel, Brent.

How long before things start melting down? Should we look for gold spikes?

A Pale Horse
Jul 29, 2007

OddObserver posted:

I am a bit curious: what was so confusing about the voting procedure? 20% invalid rate is insane.

The problem lies partly in the Polish language. A ballot in Polish is called a Karta while a sheet of paper is called a kartka, the instructions on the ballot and in the polling precincts was to mark one vote per Karta but each Karta was made up of multiple pages (kartka), it was essentially a voting booklet with each party on a different page of the ballot. Apparently a lot of people misinterpreted the instructions and marked a vote on each page (kartka) of the ballot (karta) rather than one for the whole booklet. If there are multiple marks on an election ballot by law it is invalid. This was the first time we've used this system rather than a single sheaf of paper with all the candidates from all the parties on it. In addition my countrymen are notorious for not reading instructions so the thinking is that through a combination of carelessness, unclear instructions and the new system a lot of people just hosed up.

What's more is that in the 2011 revision to the electoral law which the PKW mentioned in their defense the government suspended the responsibility for electoral precincts to report why ballots were invalidated as they had previously been required to do so we don't know for sure why so many were invalidated and the above is mostly an assumption. I hope that's made things slightly clearer.

Lucy Heartfilia
May 31, 2012


That's pretty hilarious.

jonnypeh
Nov 5, 2006

Holy poo poo. This is... incredible.

In Estonia we only had problems with database load a few elections back, somebody didn't do their performance tests so the result charts froze right when on air on national television. Guess they've fixed it since then.

Wistful of Dollars
Aug 25, 2009

Some words from the Torygraph : http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11266746/Capital-controls-feared-as-Russian-rouble-collapses.html

quote:

The rouble's slide has led to fury in the Duma, where populist politician Evgeny Fedorov has called for a criminal investigation of the central bank. Critics say the institution had been taken over by "feminist liberals" and is a tool of the International Monetary Fund. The office of the Russia general prosecutor said on Monday it was opening a probe.

Forgall
Oct 16, 2012

by Azathoth
First they came for our videogames, now they come for our rubles.

Crowsbeak
Oct 9, 2012

by Azathoth
Lipstick Apathy

Seriously what the gently caress? I mean I understand that Russia is a Authoritarian hellhole, but how can you be wanting to try people for doing their loving job? I mean they can understand that the way the economy is doing affects the ruble right? Or do they think they can solve their problems like IVan the Terrible?

Forgall
Oct 16, 2012

by Azathoth

Crowsbeak posted:

Seriously what the gently caress? I mean I understand that Russia is a Authoritarian hellhole, but how can you be wanting to try people for doing their loving job? I mean they can understand that the way the economy is doing affects the ruble right? Or do they think they can solve their problems like IVan the Terrible?
Tsar Peter III solved the problem of piracy on the Volga river by declaring that there was no more piracy and that anyone who complained about being a victim of such was a liar liable to be beaten and sent to Siberia. Nothing in Russia ever changes.

Zuhzuhzombie!!
Apr 17, 2008
FACTS ARE A CONSPIRACY BY THE CAPITALIST OPRESSOR

My Imaginary GF posted:

Saudis?



You severely misunderstand great game politics in Africa and the future of energy exports.

I could be wrong but I recall reading about an oil pipeline from the Saudis to China via Burma.

Crowsbeak
Oct 9, 2012

by Azathoth
Lipstick Apathy

Forgall posted:

Tsar Peter III solved the problem of piracy on the Volga river by declaring that there was no more piracy and that anyone who complained about being a victim of such was a liar liable to be beaten and sent to Siberia. Nothing in Russia ever changes.

I thought that Catherine the great had him killed though?

TeodorMorozov
May 27, 2013

Karmalis posted:

For all it matters, he could be the Pope and I wouldn't care.
The video is rubbish, just an accusation showing holes and blast marks with no clarity of the actual time, date and validity of those marks.
Prove me wrong and I'll apologize.

Your opinion is very important for us.



Please stay on call.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

Mokotow posted:

Come to think of it, it's surprising it took that long for PKW to collapse, since it's a purely administrative institution that is run by a board of retired high court judges. Being a judge, even a high court one, doesn't mean you're a good administrator. The board is needed for checking voting legality and giving its seal of approval, but probably shouldn't manage things like IT systems. Most of the board members are in their seventies and probbably never worked with computers during their careers, and here they are, responsible for introducing a vote calculation and management system for a 40 million country. A project like that would challenge and keep a huge IT company busy for years.
I can't help but consider the possibility of them deliberately being given a task they would have no chance of succeeding at, specifically for the purpose of getting rid of them so Poland can move towards being a managed democracy. The simple explanation of dumb politicians is probably a tad more likely though.

A Pale Horse
Jul 29, 2007

A Buttery Pastry posted:

I can't help but consider the possibility of them deliberately being given a task they would have no chance of succeeding at, specifically for the purpose of getting rid of them so Poland can move towards being a managed democracy. The simple explanation of dumb politicians is probably a tad more likely though.

PKW is not going away, the members resigned but new members are to be appointed by the end of the week by the Constitutional Tribunal (Supreme Constitutional Court) and heads of local high courts. Its a non political organization as the judiciary in Poland is professional, not elected.

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

A Pale Horse posted:

PKW is not going away, the members resigned but new members are to be appointed by the end of the week by the Constitutional Tribunal (Supreme Constitutional Court) and heads of local high courts. Its a non political organization as the judiciary in Poland is professional, not elected.
By possibility, I meant more in the sense that this would be the backstory of some Putin/Orban like ruler of Poland in a lovely spy thriller.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Russia revised its economic forecast down today to show a 0.8% contraction in 2015.

Lucy Heartfilia
May 31, 2012


0.8% contraction? That's worse than I expected. 0% growth is already bad.

Guildencrantz
May 1, 2012

IM ONE OF THE GOOD ONES

A Buttery Pastry posted:

I can't help but consider the possibility of them deliberately being given a task they would have no chance of succeeding at, specifically for the purpose of getting rid of them so Poland can move towards being a managed democracy. The simple explanation of dumb politicians is probably a tad more likely though.

You should only go to conspiracy theories once you've ruled out massive gross incompetence and institutional decay, and this is Poland. You should never rule out massive gross incompetence and institutional decay.

Also the ruling party, as much as I dislike them, are not even remotely into strongman-style politics.

A Pale Horse
Jul 29, 2007

A Buttery Pastry posted:

By possibility, I meant more in the sense that this would be the backstory of some Putin/Orban like ruler of Poland in a lovely spy thriller.

I know this is hard to believe but Poland is a stable liberal democracy not much different than western European ones. We are not Bulgaria or Hungary and certainly not Russia where something like that is possible anymore. Kaczynski might like to be Orban but the fucker can't even win an election since 2007 so the threat of those sorts of things is remote at best. Korwin-Mikke might be that sort of threat, but his current polling numbers are around 3-4%

Crowsbeak
Oct 9, 2012

by Azathoth
Lipstick Apathy

A Pale Horse posted:

I know this is hard to believe but Poland is a stable liberal democracy not much different than western European ones. We are not Bulgaria or Hungary and certainly not Russia where something like that is possible anymore. Kaczynski might like to be Orban but the fucker can't even win an election since 2007 so the threat of those sorts of things is remote at best. Korwin-Mikke might be that sort of threat, but his current polling numbers are around 3-4%

You know if you guys want to deal with that Dork Enlightenment motherfucker, you could just pass a law against denying Poland's Tragedy's.(the Holocaust, The Katlyn Forest, Russian Brutality durring the Empire).

Crowsbeak fucked around with this message at 20:12 on Dec 2, 2014

A Buttery Pastry
Sep 4, 2011

Delicious and Informative!
:3:

A Pale Horse posted:

I know this is hard to believe but Poland is a stable liberal democracy not much different than western European ones. We are not Bulgaria or Hungary and certainly not Russia where something like that is possible anymore. Kaczynski might like to be Orban but the fucker can't even win an election since 2007 so the threat of those sorts of things is remote at best. Korwin-Mikke might be that sort of threat, but his current polling numbers are around 3-4%
I know I know, it was just my inner Clancy having an outburst.

Guildencrantz posted:

You should only go to conspiracy theories once you've ruled out massive gross incompetence and institutional decay, and this is Poland. You should never rule out massive gross incompetence and institutional decay.

Also the ruling party, as much as I dislike them, are not even remotely into strongman-style politics.
I think the problem is less one of seeing conspiracies, and more one of seeing interesting ones. I whole lot of politics is people conspiring about regular boring poo poo like making sure their pals make a few extra bucks, not coups. Not that incompetence is unheard of, especially since there's no reason you can't be an incompetent conspirator.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009

A Pale Horse posted:

The problem lies partly in the Polish language. A ballot in Polish is called a Karta while a sheet of paper is called a kartka, the instructions on the ballot and in the polling precincts was to mark one vote per Karta but each Karta was made up of multiple pages (kartka), it was essentially a voting booklet with each party on a different page of the ballot.

This does sound confusing: were they grouped by party rather than office, or simply have each candidate like a page or something for a platform? (That sounds really unweirdly).

Mokotow posted:

There were 5 voting cards, each for different adminstartion level; I myself invalidaded two of my votes because I didn't give a poo poo about the high-level ones, and only voted on local-level elections. From my perspective, the higher level, voivodship ones, are all divided between the major parties, of whom none represent my views. It's hard to say what exactly the 20% invalid vote rate stands for - is it for all 5 elections combined, or for one particular one?

Oh, if they count blanks it's not really surprising in an election with multiple positions if a bunch are left blank --- in US voting % is well-known to drop down further in the ballot (though we usually have more than 5 positions to vote on). A quick check for most recent elections here (Cambridge, MA): In US Senate race, 2.8% ballots were left blank. In State Governor race, 1.1% (the race was a lot more competitive). In the various districts of lower chamber of state legislature ("Representative in General Court"), which is 10th item on the ballot it's 9.4%, 18.4%, 16.4%, and 16.5% blank. Of course the first one is the only district that had more than one candidate. You really don't want to know the turnout, too, it's utterly embarrassing.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Lucy Heartfilia posted:

0.8% contraction? That's worse than I expected. 0% growth is already bad.
This is coming directly from their government as well, so I wonder if they're even making it sound less bad than it might be if oil prices keep nosediving.

A Pale Horse
Jul 29, 2007

As Mokotow said there were separate cards for each administrative level. The election booklets I described were only for the highest voivodeship level (think State elections in the U.S.) and yes each party had a separate page in the booklet with all its candidates listed on that page. Because Poland uses the De Hondt method party list proportional representation system each party puts forth an entire list of candidates rather than a single candidate like in the U.S. and the number of seats won is awarded based on the percentage of the vote the entire party gets with the candidates receiving the most individual votes within an electoral list receiving those awarded seats. The other electoral cards for the powiat, gmina and miejskie (think county, commune and city) levels were (I think) the old kinds of voting cards. The 20% invalidation was only for the Voivodeship level. The overall level of invalidated votes for all levels was about 9% with the most straighforward city president (mayor) elections having less than 2% of votes invalidated.

Flavahbeast
Jul 21, 2001


Is there any truth to this or does the Washington Times sometimes post total bullshit for the sake of clickbaiting?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/dec/2/us-army-sending-100-tanks-eastern-europe-deter-rus/

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

Flavahbeast posted:

Is there any truth to this or does the Washington Times sometimes post total bullshit for the sake of clickbaiting?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/dec/2/us-army-sending-100-tanks-eastern-europe-deter-rus/

Washington times is a right-wing rag.

Meanwhile, in Russia: Things not looking so good for 2015.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/12/02/russia-recession_n_6255810.html

quote:

MOSCOW (AP) — The Russian government has acknowledged that the country will fall into recession next year, battered by the combination of Western sanctions and a plunge in the price of its oil exports.

The news caused the stock market to drop and pushed the ruble to a fresh record low against the dollar.

The economic development ministry on Tuesday revised its GDP forecast for 2015 from growth of 1.2 percent to a drop of 0.8 percent. Russian households are expected to take hit, with disposable income seen declining by 2.8 percent against the previously expected 0.4 percent growth.

Russia's economic outlook is at the mercy of the global market for oil, a key export that finances the bulk of the state budget. Sanctions over Moscow's role in eastern Ukraine are making things worse, hurting Russian banks and investment sentiment in particular.

The national currency, the ruble, has dropped by more than 40 percent this year as the economic troubles mounted. That in turn risks spawning more problems, such as a spike in inflation that would pinch consumers.

While Russia's troubles could do some economic damage to Europe, they are unlikely to have much impact on the U.S. economy, the world's largest. Russia is the 28th-biggest market for the United States, absorbing $11.1 billion worth of U.S. goods last year.

"Russia-U.S. trade is hardly large," said Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management. "I don't think we should be worried" about the impact of a Russian recession on U.S. exports.

In fact, the U.S. is benefiting from the lower oil prices that are driving Russian toward recession, and the money being pulled out of Russia is being pumped into U.S. and European financial markets, helping to keep interest rates low, Lascelles said.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, agreed, saying: "I don't think there's any direct economic impact" on the United States. However, he noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin could respond to the economic troubles by trying to divert the Russian public's attention with even more belligerent policies toward Ukraine and the West, raising tensions and perhaps rattling financial markets.

The release of the forecast on Tuesday afternoon weighed on the Russian stock market and the ruble, which fell 5.4 percent lower against the dollar, to a new all-time low of 53.97 per dollar.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov attempted to talk up the ruble, arguing that the new forecast for Russia's economy is too gloomy. He told Russian news agency it is only "an early estimate and it is still being discussed."

Siluanov said the ruble is oversold and its current exchange rate would correlate to the oil price of $60 per barrel. The global price of oil, Brent, traded around $70 a barrel on Tuesday.

Russia's economic stability is important for the region. It is a major trading partner for Western Europe, selling raw materials and oil and gas to the West and importing consumer goods and foodstuffs. European agricultural producers reported big losses following the Kremlin's ban on some imports. A weaker economy and a weaker ruble would also mean that fewer Russians will be traveling abroad and spending their money there.

Russia's public finances may withstand some short-term turmoil — the government has a solid balance sheet, extremely low sovereign debt and sizeable reserves in foreign currencies. The economy could also improve if oil prices rebound. But the broader uncertainty over the economy created by the market volatility and sanctions is likely to weigh on the outlook.

"The real damage from the collapsing ruble and oil price is to investment and growth," said Chris Weafer, senior partner at Moscow-based Macro-Advisory, said in a note to investors.

"Russia is a non-investible country for all but the bravest of hedge fund investors right now, and will remain in this category until both the ruble and oil stabilize at minimum."

The expected rise in inflation will also hurt consumer confidence and business activity, Weafer said.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Washington times is a right-wing rag.

Meanwhile, in Russia: Things not looking so good for 2015.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/12/02/russia-recession_n_6255810.html

Is there any quick way to find oversea corporations in which Russia holds significant stakes? One of the things I've been reading about in subsaharan africa is Russian stakes of businesses being closed out at firesale prices.

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Lucy Heartfilia
May 31, 2012


HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Washington times is a right-wing rag.

Meanwhile, in Russia: Things not looking so good for 2015.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/12/02/russia-recession_n_6255810.html

According to this:
http://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/russland-rezession-101.html

the 0.8% contraction is based on a mean oil price of $80 in 2015. That's pretty optimistic.

Edit: Much less pro-Russian comments on tagesschau.de and spiegel.de by the way.

Lucy Heartfilia fucked around with this message at 23:29 on Dec 2, 2014

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