|
blah_blah posted:I don't even know what to believe anymore, literally everything there makes sense. lol “To me a condo is just a piece of cement that gets old and crusty. The bathtub is old and crusty. The sink is old and crusty. Why don’t you just rent and get a new un-crusty condo in five years,” he said.
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 01:34
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 16, 2024 18:18 |
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:How are they angry? What do they say? "You see, Joven, ya the news right now says that prices are going down but for how long? Housing always goes up, it's just the way it is." "If you buy a house and you keep putting money in to it you'll get your money's worth. People love buying houses with nice kitchens, it'll work out!" "You're throwing your money away if you rent!" "But if I invest the difference between renting and buying..." "My mortgage is less than renting already, though!" (this is a guy that owns a tiny 2 bedroom with no basement in Transcona, which is a lovely part of town way the gently caress away from everything) Basically, they use a lot of words to say that housing can only go UP, UP, UP! and I'm a fool to not buy ASAP, especially since I have the down payment saved already.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 02:17
|
|
|
EvilJoven posted:"You see, Joven, ya the news right now says that prices are going down but for how long? Housing always goes up, it's just the way it is." So many people assume we are just 'saving up for the downpayment'. Some people even give me the amazing news that you don't need 20% anymore and ask how much we've saved up because it might be enough. It is weird though how people get mad, even if you're totally passive and polite they get defensive and a little angry. I just refuse to talk about finance with boomers or 30 something vancouverites (oddly none of my Victoria friends have any interest in condos or real-estate). Once they find out we have more than enough for a down payment they desperately try to convince me I'm throwing my money away renting and I could be building equity. They take it very personally because it always comes up that "well my son just bought his 3rd condo!" or "We just bought an investment house up island!". Anyone not doing what they're doing with their money is a terrifying reminder that they might have made a horrible financial decision. People like that need an equity echo chamber to stay sane so any dissenting opinion has to be attacked or discredited. It usually comes down to us being paranoid conspiracy theorists, not understanding that they aren't building more land, or are just too lazy to be home owners.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 02:37
|
|
|
So exactly what the hell is gonna happen when this bubble pops? Mad Max? Low interest rates?
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 02:52
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:I've always suspected that O'Leary's public CBC persona is just a troll. 100% this. He grew up as a loving hippie in Montreal with a guitar, and now sells his photography for charity. Like, if you actually look at the dude's life and actions, there is literally no way he believes what he says on TV. Also he's been telling people to not buy real estate for like at least the past year. I'm sure other articles by him on the subject have been posted in this very thread.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 02:54
|
|
|
Brannock posted:So exactly what the hell is gonna happen when this bubble pops? Mad Max? Low interest rates? I'm sure Canada will follow the the US's example of bailing out the financial sector followed by a aggressive monetary/rate cut policy.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 03:00
|
|
|
Rime posted:Reddit has done a particularly good job of aggregating the dregs of society that would have formerly only been seen commenting on news articles. Digg had to send the refugees somewhere.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 03:26
|
|
|
EvilJoven posted:"You see, Joven, ya the news right now says that prices are going down but for how long? Housing always goes up, it's just the way it is." My relationship with one of my oldest friends is really suffering because of real estate. We've been friends since grade 8 and went to mcgill together. He's now a lawyer (WITH A loving FOCUS ON REAL ESTATE LAW) and a housing bull. I blame it on his poo poo for brains wife who's family is involved in the construction industry.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 04:03
|
|
|
etalian posted:I'm sure Canada will follow the the US's example of bailing out the financial sector followed by a aggressive monetary/rate cut policy. The average Canadian household, on the other hand, will be completely screwed. EvilJoven posted:Basically, they use a lot of words to say that housing can only go UP, UP, UP! and I'm a fool to not buy ASAP, especially since I have the down payment saved already. melon cat fucked around with this message at 04:29 on Dec 5, 2014 |
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 04:22
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:My relationship with one of my oldest friends is really suffering because of real estate. We've been friends since grade 8 and went to mcgill together. He's now a lawyer (WITH A loving FOCUS ON REAL ESTATE LAW) and a housing bull. I blame it on his poo poo for brains wife who's family is involved in the construction industry. Try losing your brother over this poo poo.  I blame it on his idiot friends and coworkers who all rushed out to drop 350k on terribly built Pratt homes in this lovely city. He felt like the odd man out and the social pressure to keep up finally caught up with him I think. I think the other part is that he has a kid and a second on the way, and apparently if you still rent while having children you are some kind of monster that wants your child to grow up deprived and without a future. And because no one in my family approved of his choice, and instead offered words of caution instead, we are now the bad guys for trying to hold him back. My brother is normally a very stable and responsible person, especially financially, but for some reason the housing thing seems to get past the filters and Im terrified that he is going to get burned. e: Yes I realize 350k doesnt seem like much to you big city folks, but relative to the average income in this city its pretty high. Barrie is a really horrible place.
Furnaceface fucked around with this message at 04:40 on Dec 5, 2014 |
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 04:36
|
|
|
melon cat posted:My armchair economist perspective: The Canadian FI's won't get bailed out. They're actually in pretty good shape, and aren't over-leveraged like the U.S. banks were. They're also still making money, and since they operate across the country in a very streamlined manner it'll be easy for them to adjust their lending policies if the federal government tells them to. So instead of crashing, the Canadian banks will just fall short of their profit goals, and their shares will take a hit. They might even downsize their workforce just to trim the fat. Heck, RBC has already started to do that. If the average Canadian consumer is utterly hosed, won't the broader economic impact hit the banks, even if they are OK somehow mortgage-wise? I'm thinking business loans, etc, other traditional banking activities. Also how much of their capital or their ability to raise capital is influenced by their share price, or other things (like government bonds?) that would also be influenced by a general economic downtrend| melon cat posted:In my experience, the only people who say this are either not in the real estate market (and want to play "financial guru" for the sake of feeding their ego) or they're currently holding a massive mortgage that they probably shouldn't have. It's really bizarre- it's like they're aware of the fact that they're totally screw when rates will eventually climb, but they want to take down as many people with them just so they're not alone when poo poo hits the fan. People want to believe that the gains can continue, and the good times won't end. The last (5?) years have reinforced a lot of marketing and propaganda regarding housing, even though somehow large parts of the world went through similar bubbles recently and saw things go to absolute hell. They want to convince someone else because they probably have a nagging doubt, but if others are continuing to jump in to the boat it'll get rid of the doubt, temporarily. A small part of them realizes that this is too good to be true.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 04:42
|
|
|
Furnaceface posted:Try losing your brother over this poo poo. On the other hand, it's interesting to me the rest of your family is warning him against RE. How did that happen? I'm the voice of reason when it comes to my parents.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 05:02
|
|
|
Pervis posted:If the average Canadian consumer is utterly hosed, won't the broader economic impact hit the banks, even if they are OK somehow mortgage-wise? I'm thinking business loans, etc, other traditional banking activities. Also how much of their capital or their ability to raise capital is influenced by their share price, or other things (like government bonds?) that would also be influenced by a general economic downtrend It will all take a hit if mortgages go bad and there is general economic upheaval, but Canadian banks' balance sheets are orders of magnitude healthier than US banks before the crisis. Candian banking is pretty conservative in that respect (but our lending policies are currently way too lax). Banks rarely go to market to raise capital these days and when they do it's usually preferred shares or bonds which are priced based mostly on prevailing interest rates and have little to do with the company's share price.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 05:22
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:My relationship with one of my oldest friends is really suffering because of real estate. We've been friends since grade 8 and went to mcgill together. He's now a lawyer (WITH A loving FOCUS ON REAL ESTATE LAW) and a housing bull. I blame it on his poo poo for brains wife who's family is involved in the construction industry. Don't talk to your friends about poo poo like that. The majority of my friends are idiotic with money and several have bought real estate recently with stupidly small down payments, and I've learned that unless they specifically ask my advice it's not my place to say anything. Not going to change their minds and will just lead to useless fighting.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 05:27
|
|
|
Yeah it's like talking religion, if they're on the same page as you you can have a nice bitter chat about how stupid and wrong all those other people are, but if you get the sense they're reeeeeaaaly into housing debt just smile and nod. It seems to really be down to peoples peers/social group. Everyone I know in Victoria is too poor to even think about buying anything so there's no temptation. Everyone's who's gone to Vancouver to get a big fancy career job to make barely enough to maybe consider buying a poo poo suburban condo jumps at it because all their peers are doing the same.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 06:13
|
|
|
Baronjutter posted:Yeah it's like talking religion, if they're on the same page as you you can have a nice bitter chat about how stupid and wrong all those other people are, but if you get the sense they're reeeeeaaaly into housing debt just smile and nod. It seems to really be down to peoples peers/social group. Everyone I know in Victoria is too poor to even think about buying anything so there's no temptation. Everyone's who's gone to Vancouver to get a big fancy career job to make barely enough to maybe consider buying a poo poo suburban condo jumps at it because all their peers are doing the same. Yeah, there really is this massive social aspect to housing right now that makes it even worse. If youre renting you are almost instantly labelled as a poor or lazy and its so loving stupid.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 06:55
|
|
|
melon cat posted:My armchair economist perspective: The Canadian FI's won't get bailed out. They're actually in pretty good shape, and aren't over-leveraged like the U.S. banks were. They're also still making money, and since they operate across the country in a very streamlined manner it'll be easy for them to adjust their lending policies if the federal government tells them to. So instead of crashing, the Canadian banks will just fall short of their profit goals, and their shares will take a hit. They might even downsize their workforce just to trim the fat. Heck, RBC has already started to do that. The canadian banks did have a close call during the 2008 mega-recession and required government help to stay well capitalized to the tune of 114 billion CAD: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/banks-got-114b-from-governments-during-recession-1.1145997 Ironically good amount of the bailout money actually came from the US, which shoveled piles of money around the globe to keep banking systems all over the world from collapsing. It obviously got swept under the rug since the banks being able to easily handle a crisis without taxpayer help is a more comforting narrative.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 07:06
|
|
|
Welp.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 15:43
|
|
|
So how long until I can buy a house on the cheap following market collapse and I can live there until I die and pass it down through the generations?
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 15:47
|
|
|
If recent indicators are going to be the prevailing trend, maybe a year?
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 15:55
|
|
|
EvilJoven posted:If recent indicators are going to be the prevailing trend, maybe a year? Lucas Kawa notes on twitter that these jobs reports have an enormous error and are very volatile. It probably doesn't mean that much but I can only hope.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 15:59
|
|
|
Real Estate is tearing my friends apart. Half of us are staying in the cities, and either buying or renting, the other half of us are moving to the burbs. I passed around some funny articles about a neighboring suburb going apeshit in town hall meetings about the city council deciding to put sidewalk construction in their budget. In my opinion, if the construction of sidewalks is the third rail of your local politics, you need to move. I also passed around this video when one friend asked me what I thought of West St. Paul. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVMbFGSLytI My suburban and proto-suburban friends are not happy at all, especially the ones who live in suburbs resembling the video (read: every suburb).
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 16:34
|
|
|
EvilJoven posted:If recent indicators are going to be the prevailing trend, maybe a year? I hope this poo poo happens before the election, so the blame can be put on Harper, where it belongs. Plus it would make all his goddamn " With me in charge, the economy's great!" ads hilarious.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 17:33
|
|
|
My friends keep buying but I think I am in a different demographic than most in this thread  Harper and company intend to lose knowing that poo poo will fall apart and they can get another nine years starting in 2020ish jet sanchEz fucked around with this message at 17:37 on Dec 5, 2014 |
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 17:35
|
|
|
Furnaceface posted:Try losing your brother over this poo poo. I cautioned my sister to not buy a house for now but her and her husband have dove in and moved into a $320k place in Langley. For now I am happy for her but deep down I know that they're going to suffer for this mainly because they don't make that much--I make slightly more than them combined. It is better to not fight with families or friends on this because it is their matter in the end.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 17:52
|
|
|
jet sanchEz posted:My friends keep buying but I think I am in a different demographic than most in this thread I think that's how it's going to go down. They'll get the boot right before a big crash then spend the next 4 years screaming about how liberal/ndp tax and spend policies have collapsed the economy. Then after the economy starts to recover a bit they'll get elected, take all the credit, and we'll enjoy 16 more years of strong stable economic growth and this time any talk of "regulations" or "industrial safety" or "human rights" will be demonized out of public discourse because remember what happened to the housing market and canadian economy the last time we made oil execs pay a tax or maintain their pipelines? And yeah, don't even bother warning people or trying to "save" them, you come across as a crazy christian rambling that you don't want your family member to end up going to hell because the END TIMES are coming and only those within sin or mortgage debt will enter the gates of renters heaven.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 18:06
|
|
|
If you want a laugh, give this a read: http://www.freedomthirtyfiveblog.com/2014/12/growing-household-debt.html This apparently counts as sophisticated financial thinking.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 18:41
|
|
|
Lexicon posted:This apparently counts as sophisticated financial thinking. If you can't trust an article filled with emoticons, what CAN you trust
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 18:47
|
|
|
"Meanwhile, a recent report from the Equifax credit bureau reveals that Canadians now carry a total of $1.5 trillion of debt. This is 7.4% more than a year ago. And it works out to be roughly $43,200 per capita. But not to worry because if we remove the mortgage portion..." I lost it at this point, can't read on, laughing too hard. Ok let's go back, let's try this again. "But not to worry because if we remove the mortgage portion, then the total amount of debt has only increased 2.7% from 2013. This is actually quite sustainable eh, because if the inflation rate is 2.7% and our debt increases by the same amount then the real value of our debt wouldn’t have gone up at all" Nope, sorry, I'm out.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 18:50
|
|
|
Grand Theft Autobot posted:Real Estate is tearing my friends apart. Half of us are staying in the cities, and either buying or renting, the other half of us are moving to the burbs. I passed around some funny articles about a neighboring suburb going apeshit in town hall meetings about the city council deciding to put sidewalk construction in their budget. In my opinion, if the construction of sidewalks is the third rail of your local politics, you need to move. I also passed around this video when one friend asked me what I thought of West St. Paul. To be fair to the residents of West St. Paul, every Canadian and Northern U.S. city east of the Coast Mountains looks grey and wintery like that for 60% of the year. I would much rather be a resident of West St. Paul than Miami 
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 18:58
|
|
|
Lexicon posted:If you want a laugh, give this a read: http://www.freedomthirtyfiveblog.com/2014/12/growing-household-debt.html This is satirical...right?
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 19:04
|
|
|
jet sanchEz posted:My friends keep buying but I think I am in a different demographic than most in this thread It's silly to think that they INTEND to lose, it's more like they have a back-up plan for when it does, and HOLY poo poo if people aren't going to be looking for a someone other than themselves to blame when poo poo hits the fan!
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 21:43
|
|
|
People are 100% convinced that prices are "supposed" to keep rapidly growing as the natural state. If they don't, something went wrong, something intervened to stop this natural process. When the crash comes it won't be seen as an expected consequence to collective financial stupidity, someone else will be to blame. Probably the government. They did it, they didn't mow their lawn enough and all our property values went down!
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 22:15
|
|
|
Cultural Imperial posted:
TD warns of challenges ahead after missing targets. BMO also missed their Q4 targets. CIBC and RBC have apparently done well this year, but they aren't exactly tap-dancing in happiness about it. At best, they seem to be cautiously optimistic of the years ahead. etalian posted:The canadian banks did have a close call during the 2008 mega-recession and required government help to stay well capitalized to the tune of 114 billion CAD: melon cat fucked around with this message at 23:33 on Dec 5, 2014 |
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 23:11
|
|
|
Professor Shark posted:It's silly to think that they INTEND to lose, it's more like they have a back-up plan for when it does, and HOLY poo poo if people aren't going to be looking for a someone other than themselves to blame when poo poo hits the fan! Yeah, "intend" was a poor choice of words but I don't think any tory will be surprised if they lose and they will most definitely have a great time in the house blaming everyone else for the woes of the country. It will be a frustrating thing to witness, I am sure.
|
|
#
?
Dec 5, 2014 23:13
|
|
|
melon cat posted:And to add to this: As somebody who has been calling for a bubble collapse since 2008/09, and has also been telling people to avoid Canadian banks like the plague, there is no smug emoticon big enough to describe my feelings right now. It's coming, like a freight train, and I hope everybody who thought they were smarter than truth and mathematics eats an entire bag of poo poo.
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2014 00:23
|
|
|
melon cat posted:The Canadian FIs certainly had what could be described as a soft-landing (largely due to that government-assisted capitalization you mentioned), but even then, the Canadian market's correction wasn't anywhere close to the U.S. FIs'. Heck, I clearly remember Harper bragging about the Canadian FIs stability as a model to be emulated during the '08 shitstorm and Canadians getting all super-smug about it. Well most of the smugness does overlook how the banks did require a stealth bailout to stay healthy during the 2008 mega-recession. History pretty much shows when you have a irrational exuberance driven bubble it always ends in a big meltdown regardless of all the false hopes people have for the banks and economy being well prepared for the downtown. etalian fucked around with this message at 02:55 on Dec 6, 2014 |
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2014 00:43
|
|
|
http://www.straight.com/news/784486/housing-demand-rise-after-apocalyptic-scenario-doesnt-play-out-canadian-marketquote:“Certainly demographics are at the core of housing demand, and a fundamental principle of demographics is that people do not leave the housing market when they turn 60, or 70, and increasingly, given the substantial increase in life expectancy we have enjoyed over the past century, not even when they turn 80,” the think-tank noted.  Man I hope everyone believes this and buys a house for xmas. namaste friends fucked around with this message at 03:19 on Dec 6, 2014 |
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2014 03:17
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 16, 2024 18:18 |
|
|
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/12/05/2062831/canadian-part-time-worker-update/quote:While it’s easy to lose track amid the din associated with the release of the US jobs report, the Great White North also published its latest jobs numbers on Friday. These data are highly volatile on a month-to-month basis, but we still think some interesting information can occasionally be gleaned from looking at the annual changes. In particular, we noticed something eye-catching about the flows into part-time and full-time work. So the jobs numbers probably aren't that bad.
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2014 09:10
|
|