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Chamale posted:Governor Jay Nixon of Missouri? That man is 7 billionth tier, the corpse of Osama bin Laden would be a better VP pick than him. Sternness toward blacks is a plus.
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Dec 11, 2014 08:45
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BristolSOF posted:That along with Gov. Susana Martinez getting picked by a moderate Republican... wouldn't that force Hillary to a pick a Hispanic candidate? It really depends upon which moderate Republican is picked and how well they do amongst hispanics. If the situation calls for a populist hispanic over a milquetoast hispanic, I think Hillary would go for Gutierrez. GOP pick of a moderate, hispanic woman could force Hillary to choose a non-hispanic in order to shore up the non-hispanic vote. SedanChair posted:Sternness toward blacks is a plus. Yeah, it is when you're losing among whites, black turnout is projected to be abyssmal, and hispanics begin disobedience campaigns or dissent against your candidacy. Social unrest could play a large role in the 2016 campaigns, depending upon how things develop.
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Dec 11, 2014 08:46
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My Imaginary GF posted:Social unrest could play a large role in the 2016 campaigns, depending upon how things develop. Do not fear MIGF, your banker cop masters are safe.
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Dec 11, 2014 08:50
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SedanChair posted:Do not fear MIGF, your banker cop masters are safe. I fear for Democratic turnout in 2016. Hammering from blacks for not doing enough, hammering from latinos for doing too much for others, hammering from whites for doing too much while not doing enough.
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Dec 11, 2014 08:52
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Why, are you a democrat or something? what the gently caress for
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Dec 11, 2014 08:54
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So to be clear, your argument here is that if the Republicans put a Hispanic person on the ticket, Hillary should choose a white VP so she can pick up votes from people who won't pull the lever for a person of color.
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Dec 11, 2014 08:55
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Chantilly Say posted:So to be clear, your argument here is that if the Republicans put a Hispanic person on the ticket, Hillary should choose a white VP so she can pick up votes from people who won't pull the lever for a person of color. If the Republicans go with a moderate enough ticket willing to enact and campaign on some immigration reform, Clinton may attempt to capture the racist vote, yes. SedanChair posted:Why, are you a democrat or something? what the gently caress for Ain't no party like the Democratic party 'cause we been partying since 1792/1828 so get with the party or gently caress off.
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Dec 11, 2014 08:59
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My Imaginary GF posted:Yes, unless the situation calls for a white male and Webb is found with a live boy or dead girl, Dean goes Munch, and Emanuel can't be used, in which case Nixon is the last one left alive. I can't see it happening. Nixon is too tied up with the Ferguson unrest, he would only slightly gain votes among old whites and cost millions of votes from African-Americans and young whites. He is the last Democrat you'd want on the ticket. He'd reinforce the narrative that young people shouldn't bother voting and basically be a worst-case scenario. I think the only situation Hillary would pick Jay Nixon is if the 15th Amendment somehow got revoked. SedanChair posted:Why, are you a democrat or something? what the gently caress for He's the kind of democrat that's actually in charge of the Democratic Party.
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Dec 11, 2014 09:00
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My Imaginary GF posted:Gutierrez or Castro, depending upon what weakness in her narrative she needs to counter. Upon a canine's posterior the sun hath shone. Castro's the handicappers' favorite but let's throw a wild card in the mix: Anthony Foxx. He's gonna be looking for a new gig after his current job's over, he's definitely not running for governor since that's already been spoken for, and probably won't be going for Richard Burr's seat in the senate. Black guy, from the south and a battleground state, has ties to Obama to keep his fanbase excited. And most importantly totally in the pocket of industry. Alec Bald Snatch fucked around with this message at 09:07 on Dec 11, 2014 |
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Dec 11, 2014 09:02
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Chantilly Say posted:So to be clear, your argument here is that if the Republicans put a Hispanic person on the ticket, Hillary should choose a white VP so she can pick up votes from people who won't pull the lever for a person of color. I can see the argument. If only one ticket is all-white in this election, that ticket will pick up a ton of votes because of it. And I think it would be suicide for Hillary to pick a black running mate (if one were available). It's Latino or white. Black people are getting left out of this election.
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Dec 11, 2014 09:02
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BristolSOF fucked around with this message at 07:13 on Apr 3, 2015 |
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Dec 11, 2014 09:03
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SedanChair posted:I can see the argument. If only one ticket is all-white in this election, that ticket will pick up a ton of votes because of it. You're right on this SedanChair. You're correct. You know the time between the first black congressmen elected and the second? Yeah, gonna take as long for a black man to get back to executive power in a non-token manner.
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Dec 11, 2014 09:05
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My Imaginary GF posted:You're right on this SedanChair. You're correct. You're right that black people will get left out of this election, but it's not an election for Democrats to court the racist vote. That strategy wouldn't work, because whites for whom that's a big issue won't be voting for Hillary in 2016 no matter who she picks. The racists on the right and the social justice people on the left aren't going to flip parties in 2016, they'll look at the candidates and decide whether or not to stay home. It's up to each party to turn out that segment of their base, not to capture the segment from the other party.
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Dec 11, 2014 09:11
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SedanChair posted:I can see the argument. If only one ticket is all-white in this election, that ticket will pick up a ton of votes because of it. Depends on the level of cynicism at play on a range between Mister Rogers and Henry Kissinger. Blacks turn out at a far higher rate than Hispanics, and there's enough of them in a few close states that if it becomes a choice between who to pander to with a token pick, I'd put money on black.
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Dec 11, 2014 09:14
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comes along bort posted:Depends on the level of cynicism at play on a range between Mister Rogers and Henry Kissinger. Blacks turn out at a far higher rate than Hispanics, and there's enough of them in a few close states that if it becomes a choice between who to pander to with a token pick, I'd put money on black. That's assuming blacks will turn out in 2015. Given the recent issues, and the probability of another police-induced death being caught on camera between now and the start of supertuesday's media cycle, black turnout isn't something which can be taken for granted. Chamale posted:You're right that black people will get left out of this election, but it's not an election for Democrats to court the racist vote. That strategy wouldn't work, because whites for whom that's a big issue won't be voting for Hillary in 2016 no matter who she picks. The racists on the right and the social justice people on the left aren't going to flip parties in 2016, they'll look at the candidates and decide whether or not to stay home. It's up to each party to turn out that segment of their base, not to capture the segment from the other party. Part of the narrative you build is to convince those sorts of folk to not vote for your oppo. Social Justice ain't gonna rock the vote in 15/16, so no need to appease them. Racists? Theys on the fence over turning out to vote. E: Huge gently caress'n complicating factor which is going unaddressed: raising contribution limits. My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 09:29 on Dec 11, 2014 |
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Dec 11, 2014 09:18
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Chamale posted:You're right that black people will get left out of this election, but it's not an election for Democrats to court the racist vote. That strategy wouldn't work, because whites for whom that's a big issue won't be voting for Hillary in 2016 no matter who she picks. The racists on the right and the social justice people on the left aren't going to flip parties in 2016, they'll look at the candidates and decide whether or not to stay home. It's up to each party to turn out that segment of their base, not to capture the segment from the other party. Oh we're not talking about people who know they're racist. They'll just manage not to show up to vote for a black person ever again. comes along bort posted:Depends on the level of cynicism at play on a range between Mister Rogers and Henry Kissinger. Blacks turn out at a far higher rate than Hispanics, and there's enough of them in a few close states that if it becomes a choice between who to pander to with a token pick, I'd put money on black. Dem bosses will see every black gained as two whites lost.
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Dec 11, 2014 09:36
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watch bush start a loving war 2
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Dec 11, 2014 09:39
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SedanChair posted:
The reliable white dem voters who'd stay home or vote for the other guy if a black was on the ticket are either dead, living in states that don't matter, or had already been voting for republican nominees for a couple decades anyway. e: Obama in 2012 is probably the floor for the white vote overall for a good while and he still got over 300 EV. Alec Bald Snatch fucked around with this message at 09:48 on Dec 11, 2014 |
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Dec 11, 2014 09:44
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comes along bort posted:The reliable white dem voters who'd stay home or vote for the other guy if a black was on the ticket are either dead, living in states that don't matter, or had already been voting for republican nominees for a couple decades anyway. Obama has two more years to cement the association of the words "black" and "failure" in the white public mind. Racism will be open and bipartisan by 2016.
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Dec 11, 2014 09:48
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SedanChair posted:Obama has two more years to cement the association of the words "black" and "failure" in the white public mind. Racism will be open and bipartisan by 2016. Dukakis got more of the white vote than Obama last time. Like I said, the floor's been set, and I seriously doubt Hillary will pull in Mondale numbers among whitey, and that's what it's gonna take at minimum for a Republican to win the presidency.
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Dec 11, 2014 09:57
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Chantilly Say posted:So to be clear, your argument here is that if the Republicans put a Hispanic person on the ticket, Hillary should choose a white VP so she can pick up votes from people who won't pull the lever for a person of color. Don't bother paying attention to the "it needs to be this race and gender" people. Thats not how vice presidents have been chosen in the past (aside from Palin and Ferrarra who were both gimmick picks designed to save sinking campaigns) and I see no reason for that to change this cycle. If you want to know who Hillary is going to pick you should look for the following things. The person is not hated (or hatable) by most Americans, is not ridden with scandals, can give a decent (or at least not bad) speech, has policy views which line up with the nominee's and is liked by the nominee. You can discount the "he needs to be from this state" people too because they haven't been chosen like that for decades.
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Dec 11, 2014 12:50
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My Imaginary GF posted:Yes, unless the situation calls for a white male and Webb is found with a live boy or dead girl, Dean goes Munch, and Emanuel can't be used, in which case Nixon is the last one left alive. You're not getting the nod Rahm, stop deluding yourself.
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Dec 11, 2014 13:57
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Raskolnikov38 posted:Also he has the added advantage of it being true when he says "I was not part of my brother's administration." He's refused to badmouth his brother's presidency and that would be a significant liability in distancing himself from that trainwreck.
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Dec 11, 2014 16:42
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comes along bort posted:Dukakis got more of the white vote than Obama last time. Like I said, the floor's been set, and I seriously doubt Hillary will pull in Mondale numbers among whitey, and that's what it's gonna take at minimum for a Republican to win the presidency. The issue with talking about the 'white' vote is that it's not really monolithic. There's whites in the South, who vote Republican overwhelmingly, then there's whites everywhere else who are reasonably friendly to the Democrats. The Democrats can afford the Republicans running up the cracker vote in the South, it's the vote in the rest of the country that matters.
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Dec 11, 2014 16:45
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Full Battle Rattle posted:watch bush start a loving war
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Dec 11, 2014 16:52
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Rick Perry: ‘Running for the presidency’s not an IQ test’ look at perry hedging against his smart people glasses
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Dec 11, 2014 17:25
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My Imaginary GF posted:Gutierrez or Castro, depending upon what weakness in her narrative she needs to counter. Gutierrez already spends most of his time in Puerto Rico or Miami (which is why he's always on Univision). I don't think he wants to interrupt his pre-retirement with all the bother of campaigning.
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Dec 11, 2014 19:25
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Man_of_Teflon posted:Rick Perry: ‘Running for the presidency’s not an IQ test’ I think that besides the hilarity that is Perry admitting publicly that he's an idiot is his use of scripture to justify ignoring the poor and needy. You're doing Christ's work on Earth Perry!
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Dec 11, 2014 19:28
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You guys are underestimating Jeb. He's no dumb dumb like his brother and as Florida governors go wasn't a spectacularly horrible governor in a pretty big swing state. As far as sharing the name, it's a bit like a new Rocky, Alien, Jurassic Park or Terminator movie. No, no. This time it'll be really great! We have a new director!
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Dec 12, 2014 00:56
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BiggerBoat posted:You guys are underestimating Jeb. He's no dumb dumb like his brother and as Florida governors go wasn't a spectacularly horrible governor in a pretty big swing state. On the other hand, he looks like a total dork  And Dubya is definitely the most politically skilled of the brothers.
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Dec 12, 2014 02:06
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SedanChair posted:On the other hand, he looks like a total dork Just how much of your perception of the Bush family is based upon Lil' Bush?
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Dec 12, 2014 02:49
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Here are the issues I see campaigns building a narrative around for 2015/2016: Public sell Torture & global economy/security Domestic civil rights and police accountability Immigration reform: Too fast, or too slow? Donor sell Financial regulation & interest rates Airline regulation One-time reshoring tax exemption & reverse acquisition crackdown Social Security fund management & privitization Cuban normalization and re-integration Pick two of the above for your public pillars and three of the below for fundraising. Identify which potential Veep picks signal what policy positions towards where on the above.
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Dec 12, 2014 02:49
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Mitt thinks Jeb is a weak candidate, and he's thinking about doing something about it.quote:For most of the past year, Mitt Romney supporters have publicly said he should consider running again. And for most of the past year, Romney has seemed uninterested. 
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Dec 12, 2014 02:52
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Ahahaha the power of delusion folks. Mitt can be the candidate forever, and Biden can be veep forever.Raskolnikov38 posted:Just how much of your perception of the Bush family is based upon Lil' Bush? They're one of the most illustrious families in the history of public life. And since Dubya was the most successful politician in their line, I guess that has quite a bit to do with my perception. (?)
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Dec 12, 2014 02:58
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SedanChair posted:They're one of the most illustrious families in the history of public life. And since Dubya was the most successful politician in their line, I guess that has quite a bit to do with my perception. (?) Lil' Bush was a TV show.
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Dec 12, 2014 03:01
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Raskolnikov38 posted:Just how much of your perception of the Bush family is based upon Lil' Bush? Question: was Pappy Bush really obsessed with saltines, or was that an invention of the show?
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Dec 12, 2014 04:41
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SedanChair posted:And Dubya is definitely the most politically skilled of the brothers. It's been a long time since we've seen "Bush is a secret genius."
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Dec 12, 2014 06:24
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I will give sedanchair that dubya is smarter than common perception but he' still nowhere near the level he ascribes to Bush.
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Dec 12, 2014 06:27
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BiggerBoat posted:You guys are underestimating Jeb. He's no dumb dumb like his brother and as Florida governors go wasn't a spectacularly horrible governor in a pretty big swing state. Mostly I wonder how rusty he'll be after ten years out of politics
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Dec 12, 2014 06:30
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Badger of Basra posted:It's been a long time since we've seen "Bush is a secret genius." "Good at politics" != "Genius."
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