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Mercaptopropyl
Sep 16, 2006

I can be framed easier than Whistler's Mother
Keith was hilarious this episode.

There's nobody left capable of getting any votes except Natalie and Keith so I'm really hoping Keith wins. Can't wait to see Missy's ego on display next week, whether it's from the jury or the finals.

Really hoping that Baylor chooses Keith over Natalie and we get to watch Keith win in the F3 against Missy and Baylor.

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Absolute Zero
Mar 12, 2007

Best QB in Arizona history*

*projected

Mercaptopropyl posted:

Really hoping that Baylor chooses Keith over Natalie and we get to watch Keith win in the F3 against Missy and Baylor.

Honestly if Baylor is ballsy enough to make this kind of move I think she deserves to win. Keith is awful at survivor.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Yeah if I'm anyone left in the game, I want to go to final tribal council with anyone except Natalie now. The question is whether Missy/Baylor would be willing to vote her out if she doesn't have immunity at F4.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

Fast Luck posted:

Yeah if I'm anyone left in the game, I want to go to final tribal council with anyone except Natalie now. The question is whether Missy/Baylor would be willing to vote her out if she doesn't have immunity at F4.

It's tough to say for sure, but I think Natalie has this won. Assuming Jaclyn is out next, for Natalie to not make the Final 3 at this point she needs to somehow lose Final 4 immunity AND have Missy and Baylor both agree to betray her AND have Missy and Baylor not want to pursue the strategy of one of them voluntarily leaving to have a free jury vote AND have Keith not be willing to force a tie for her. And then it's hard to imagine Natalie losing at Final 3 unless the jury is super bitter and votes for Keith out of spite. And even then, that requires Keith squeaking into the Final 3 too somehow.

Truther Vandross
Jun 17, 2008

Hahahahahahah visualize the win motherfucker

Red_Museum
Apr 17, 2011

Shredded Hen
Jeremy's face when Jon was talking about trust at tribal council was pure disgust framed by Josh and Wes laughing.

I kinda love how there have been a bunch of perceived winners edits so far this season, like the editors are just having fun.

DaisyDanger
Feb 19, 2007

Sorry, a system error occurred.
I let out an audible ughhhhhhhhh when Missy was telling Baylor about how she can't vote for Jon, but goddamn if it didn't pay off in the end.

:golfclap:

Missy is the loving worst, even after this episode.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

mancalamania posted:

It's tough to say for sure, but I think Natalie has this won. Assuming Jaclyn is out next, for Natalie to not make the Final 3 at this point she needs to somehow lose Final 4 immunity AND have Missy and Baylor both agree to betray her AND have Missy and Baylor not want to pursue the strategy of one of them voluntarily leaving to have a free jury vote AND have Keith not be willing to force a tie for her. And then it's hard to imagine Natalie losing at Final 3 unless the jury is super bitter and votes for Keith out of spite. And even then, that requires Keith squeaking into the Final 3 too somehow.

I wish this was true, but Jax is petulant and whiny and the single true remaining goat. I could see Missy taking her to the end because that as well as because of her silly respect for Jon, and I could see Baylor kind of wanting to win this thing.

Anyway Natalie made a great save after last ep's tribal, and whatever she did tonight was masterful. You see this with couples and I guess it goes for twinnies as well; quite often, one is a lot more palatable without the other.

Binary Logic
Dec 28, 2000

Fun Shoe

DaisyDanger posted:

I let out an audible ughhhhhhhhh when Missy was telling Baylor about how she can't vote for Jon, but goddamn if it didn't pay off in the end.

:golfclap:

Missy is the loving worst, even after this episode.

As Richard Hatch said in his RHAP podcast, it's strange that even after 29 seasons people go on Survivor and have no idea how to play the game. And I guess Missy hasn't seen last season yet which was the latest reminder from Woo that "playing with honour" is a good way to lose a million dollars.

Binary Logic fucked around with this message at 12:56 on Dec 11, 2014

Rarity
Oct 21, 2010

~*4 LIFE*~
As a long time Twinnie fan, this episode was an absolute delight. Natalie's got this game sewn up.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

mancalamania posted:

It's tough to say for sure, but I think Natalie has this won. Assuming Jaclyn is out next, for Natalie to not make the Final 3 at this point she needs to somehow lose Final 4 immunity AND have Missy and Baylor both agree to betray her AND have Missy and Baylor not want to pursue the strategy of one of them voluntarily leaving to have a free jury vote AND have Keith not be willing to force a tie for her. And then it's hard to imagine Natalie losing at Final 3 unless the jury is super bitter and votes for Keith out of spite. And even then, that requires Keith squeaking into the Final 3 too somehow.
I'm not sure Jaclyn is out next but I agree with you that Natalie is in great shape. Unless everyone forgets about Keith and lets him float to the end, he's a higher priority target than Natalie, and if he wins immunity, they can vote out Jaclyn and Natalie has an idol anyway. If Keith wins immunity again at F4, there's a good chance he may not vote against Natalie, and a small chance one of Missy/Baylor may agree to go to the jury. If Keith is already gone before F4, then there's like a 90% chance that Natalie wins immunity.

JesusSinfulHands
Oct 24, 2007
Sartre and Russell are my heroes
I agree with the general contours of your analysis although 90% is too high. F4 challenges could really be anything these days, and Natalie is not that much better athletically than Baylor or Jaclyn.

Sand Monster
Apr 13, 2008

Poque posted:

Alec's face is cracking my poo poo up

Arguably the greatest part of the episode.

CODChimera
Jan 29, 2009

I wasn't a big fan of the start of this season(what happened again? I remember Jeremy, the racist guy and a second twin) but these last few episodes have been decent. Hoping we get a decent winner in Natalie but I wouldn't mind seeing Baylor win.

I don't want to see Jaclyn win. Doubt she can at this point though.

Joose Caboose
Apr 17, 2013

To Vex a Stranger
Mar 15, 2004
Rawr!

Sand Monster posted:

Arguably the greatest part of the episode.

Everytime Alec's face showed up, even before he was on the council, my girlfriend and I would just laugh our asses off because his dumbfounded looks are just so absurd.

Athanatos
Jun 7, 2006

Est. 1967

To Vex a Stranger posted:

Everytime Alec's face showed up, even before he was on the council, my girlfriend and I would just laugh our asses off because his dumbfounded looks are just so absurd.

You should watch his Ponderosa where he goes on about how he was smartly playing the game by doing nothing and how big of a threat he was.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

He actually did seem to be doing sort of well? He had Baylor wanting to keep him at least past Keith, and he had Jon and Jaclyn liking him too. I'm not sure if it would have got him anything because he didn't have alliances or anything but there were some seeds there.

bbf2
Nov 22, 2007

"The White Shadow"

Fast Luck posted:

He actually did seem to be doing sort of well? He had Baylor wanting to keep him at least past Keith, and he had Jon and Jaclyn liking him too. I'm not sure if it would have got him anything because he didn't have alliances or anything but there were some seeds there.

You could say the same about Carter from Philippines or Eddie from Caramoan. There are always dudes who are dragged to the end because they're mostly nonthreatening and people kind of like them.

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova
I was pretty worried about Natalie through the immuntiy challenge of this episode, and so I was glad to see her pull the Jon blindside off (even though it would have been so much more satisfying last week!)

Taking a step back, it's still completely insane that there were two pairs in-tact in the final six! I have no idea what Jon's strategy was if this vote went according to plan — it seems like he pretty much just imagined he would be in the Final 3, and that's it? Was he going to take Natalie? Did he imagine Natalie would side with the much stronger jury threat over Missy/Baylor? He also managed to pull a Phillippines Penner (although not quite to that level of idiocy), staying inactive for an "easy boot" when it's clear a big move has to come very soon.

I don't think Natalie is as well-set up as people are making her out to be. Or, at least, she shouldn't be, but who knows with this cast. She is easily the biggest jury threat and there's pretty much no way that she should make the finals without winning the last immunity, considering the other people in the game. If the final four are Missy/Baylor/Natalie/anyone, Missy and Baylor would be stupid not to take the fourth person with them.

I think right now, my biggest fear is that Natalie gets booted before the finals and Keith ends up beating one or both of Missy/Baylor just because people think they're annoying. I actually think Keith somehow winning would be the best example of a "bitter jury" in the history of the game, just because he's soooo bad at Survivor and the people he could beat wouldn't have played a particularly bad social game.

newtestleper
Oct 30, 2003
Jury threat of final 5.

1. Natalie
2. Missy
3. Jaclyn
4/5. Kieth/Baylor

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I'm crushing hard on Natalie and Baylor right now. That saved this season for sure.

It was a major episode for Natalie. That vote on Alec was probably a mistake but she did a great job covering it up, she won immunity, she backed Baylor against Missy, she managed to get Keith to keep his trap shut, and then that poo poo eating grin at the end killed me. I need a cap of that. That was Natalie's game winning move if there's Justice. She's not a lock but that idol should get her to F4 and then she just has to win immunity or hope that Baylor bond holds.

And I want to give Baylor credit on this one too. Fighting back against her mother was key to making this happen. She could have folded and given in to her mom. That's been her MO most game even before Missy with Josh. Some of this should probably go to Natalie for becoming a strong enough force for Baylor that she'd side with her, but Baylor was making total sense to Missy and without her standing her ground Natalie's move would have been poo poo out of luck.

Binary Logic posted:

As Richard Hatch said in his RHAP podcast, it's strange that even after 29 seasons people go on Survivor and have no idea how to play the game. And I guess Missy hasn't seen last season yet which was the latest reminder from Woo that "playing with honour" is a good way to lose a million dollars.

I really got the impression that Missy knew she was playing against her interests and didn't care. Baylor was plainly saying that it would kill their game and Missy said she didn't care. She was content to lose for Jon. I'll defer to Baylor on this one since she has the best idea of her mom. She's got some kind of issues with men and bending over backwards for them.

And what was with all her talk about honesty and loyalty? Did she forget Jeremy?

Absolute Zero posted:

Honestly if Baylor is ballsy enough to make this kind of move I think she deserves to win. Keith is awful at survivor.

100% agreed. Keith is a giant goat and should not get a Fabio win here. Fabio was an idiot but he didn't actively sabotage his game every week. If Baylor makes a major power move to get out Natalie immediately after playing a key role in getting out Jon/Jaclyn by standing up to her mom about it? Then I'd give my vote to Baylor easily. But I don't think the jury would see it that way. They wouldn't have seen how willing Missy was to throw her game away for Jon so they wouldn't realize how important Baylor was there. Missy would seem much more like the brains and Keith might just get that bitter vote.

Professor Shark
May 22, 2012

I hope that Natalie goes after Jax, because then I would actually be really impressed by Baylor.

Homestar Runner
Oct 9, 2012

This is the best videogame
I have ever played!
Natalie is a complete tool and everyone rooting for her ITT is rooting for her by default

James315
Dec 17, 2006

315 [Mp 40] everyone

newtestleper posted:

Jury threat of final 5.

1. Natalie
2. Missy
3. Jaclyn
4/5. Kieth/Baylor

1. Natalie
2. Keith
3. Jaclyn/Missy/Baylor

Milovan Drecun
Apr 17, 2007
I masturbate in traffic.
I love Jeremy and Josh, they are super buddy-buddy on the jury. Jeremy keeps nudging and grabbing Josh in excitement.

I think Natalie has a strong chance of winning but Baylor/Missy sneakily strongest if they bring Jaclyn to the end. Which can only happen if Keith doesn't win immunity next round. And then Natalie doesn't win after that. It will be interesting to see if Natalie would rather get rid of Jaclyn or Keith, though I think she no doubt wins if she gets to the final three. Keith could manage a win if Natalie were bitter enough (she'd have no right to be, but given her personality...). Jaclyn's the only one without any real shot.

Robnoxious
Feb 17, 2004

newtestleper posted:

Jury threat of final 5.

1. Natalie
2. Missy
3. Jaclyn
4/5. Kieth/Baylor
1. Natalie
2. Kieth
3. A coconut
4. The howler monkey back at camp
5. Survivor Medic

Homestar Runner
Oct 9, 2012

This is the best videogame
I have ever played!

Robnoxious posted:

1. Natalie
2. Keith
3. Rocker

ftfy

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Listening to Jon's exit interview, interesting Survivor rule debate clarified.

Rob asks Jon if he had the idol when he went out. Jon says it was in his bag at Council but he left his bag with Jaclyn so she had the clothes. But he says she had to give it back and he would have had to have given it to her before getting evicted for her to hold onto it.

Now, entries into the "Jon is a massive idiot" file.

Rob asks Jon what his plan with the Five was. Jon says that Baylor and Jaclyn had volunteered to be voted out and let Jon, Missy, and Natalie go to the end. Apparently Jon believed this. Rob (who never strikes me as a good interviewer) fails to ask why in the world Jon believed Baylor or why Missy would be cool with her daughter getting voted out. He just asks why Natalie didn't go with the deal, if she wanted revenge for Jeremy or just didn't want Jon in F3. No discussion of "That seems like an impossibly stupid deal that no one should buy into."

Although Jon's a good sport, at least. Rob asks if he's bitter that Baylor blindsided him after he gave up his reward and Jon says he did the exact same thing to Jeremy and its part of the game. He also admits he's a hypocrite who was bitter about Missy betraying him and he didn't realize it until he watched this episode and saw what happened and how difficult it was for Missy.

To Vex a Stranger
Mar 15, 2004
Rawr!
We still haven't seen Keith say "I made the dumbest move in survivor history" yet, have we? I remember him saying that in a promo, and every week I don't hear it I say "Yeah, he's still here."

Maybe that's a quote from final jury and he is talking about loving him and wes over?

bbf2
Nov 22, 2007

"The White Shadow"

To Vex a Stranger posted:

We still haven't seen Keith say "I made the dumbest move in survivor history" yet, have we? I remember him saying that in a promo, and every week I don't hear it I say "Yeah, he's still here."

Maybe that's a quote from final jury and he is talking about loving him and wes over?

We never saw Julie say "I feel so betrayed by John right now" either. Some of that stuff was cut out along the way. I'd bet that Keith quote was from after Reed told him he screwed up and was left out of the episode, and they didn't use a clip from the finale in the preview.

Milovan Drecun
Apr 17, 2007
I masturbate in traffic.
I feel like we did hear that, though, after Rocker get into it with Natalie at the challenge. She's talking to Missy and thinks he got her in trouble. I dunno, maybe I am remembering incorrectly??

Mills
Jun 13, 2003

I stopped watching. Has Natalie redeemed herself since being a complete retard over the Rocker stuff?

DaisyDanger
Feb 19, 2007

Sorry, a system error occurred.

Mills posted:

I stopped watching. Has Natalie redeemed herself since being a complete retard over the Rocker stuff?

Most definitely.

Mercaptopropyl
Sep 16, 2006

I can be framed easier than Whistler's Mother
How did I completely forget about how absurdly jealous and/or threatened Jaclyn seems to be by Missy when it comes to Jon. I can't imagine what Jaclyn must be like outside the game when women are around Jon.

Binary Logic
Dec 28, 2000

Fun Shoe

Mills posted:

I stopped watching. Has Natalie redeemed herself since being a complete retard over the Rocker stuff?

If that's what you think, continue not watching.

Mills
Jun 13, 2003

Now I want to know why Daisy and Binary have opposite opinions. :crossarms:

DaisyDanger
Feb 19, 2007

Sorry, a system error occurred.
Then get to watchin' :v:

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

bbf2 posted:

We never saw Julie say "I feel so betrayed by John right now" either. Some of that stuff was cut out along the way. I'd bet that Keith quote was from after Reed told him he screwed up and was left out of the episode, and they didn't use a clip from the finale in the preview.

The big missing one is the weird Jon quote that was like "somebody has the idol, and we're going to BURN IT!!!!" What on earth was he talking about?? I don't even know which Idol he was talking about considering he had half of them!

And how did all of the exit interviewers fail to ask about this?

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Orvin
Sep 9, 2006




At some point after Jon found the first idol, he mentioned that he burned the rules sheet that came with it. I think that was from Reed finding Keith's HII sheet.

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