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etalian posted:Albertans to soon stop whining about the injustice of the canadian equalization system. Not stop, just complain in the other direction.
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Dec 15, 2014 06:35
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Lexicon posted:Not stop, just complain in the other direction. "We carried the whole Canadian economy and employed workers from every province for a decade, the rest of Canada owes us!" will be the attitude.
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Dec 15, 2014 06:38
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Are there any "have" provinces left that aren't dependent on oil?
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Dec 15, 2014 14:31
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You guys are the worst armchair economists  ----- Average house price in Canada rises almost 6% to $413,649 House prices in Canada are moving even higher, according to Canadian Real Estate Association data released today. The average price of a Canadian home sold in November was $413,000, an increase of 5.7 per cent over the previous 12 months. The number of sales in the first 11 months of this year is also up, by about five per cent, compared to 2013's level. http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/average-house-price-in-canada-rises-almost-6-to-413-649-1.2873346?cmp=rss
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Dec 15, 2014 15:46
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etalian posted:Albertans to soon stop whining about the injustice of the canadian equalization system. .. and move back to Newfoundland?
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Dec 15, 2014 15:51
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Brannock posted:What do you think a Lost Decade would do for Canadian art? Canadian art cannot poo poo the bed till after either I sell the famous painting I have or loan it to the National Gallery (it will go to the Gallery as they don't have one by this guy and can't afford one at current prices).
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Dec 15, 2014 19:08
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Baronjutter posted:"We carried the whole Canadian economy and employed workers from every province for a decade, the rest of Canada owes us!" will be the attitude. And so the cycle will begin anew.
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Dec 15, 2014 21:22
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It's going to be particularly amusing if the liberals win next years election. There's going to be a lot of rage from the people that still hate Pierre Trudeau if his son becomes the PM, especially if it coincides with a regional recession in Alberta again.
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Dec 15, 2014 21:26
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Baudin posted:It's going to be particularly amusing if the liberals win next years election. There's going to be a lot of rage from the people that still hate Pierre Trudeau if his son becomes the PM, especially if it coincides with a regional recession in Alberta again. My favorite part is how media coverage always reports on the CPC/government's decisions and then gets a quote from the LPC (aka nobodies) on the matter and ignores the NDP (aka official opposition). Trudeau is a nobody MP that recently rode his dad's coat-tails in to provincial and now federal politics. cowofwar fucked around with this message at 23:25 on Dec 15, 2014 |
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Dec 15, 2014 23:22
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http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/joe-oliver-says-ottawa-looking-at-hot-housing-market-as-ministers-meet-1.2873239quote:
WE NEED TO TAKE MEASURES TO COOL THIS MARKET BUT WE STILL PREDICT A SOFT LANDING! LOL!
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Dec 15, 2014 23:25
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I'm curious as to what these people think a "housing bubble" actually would be. It's not 30% overvalued houses and historic amounts of personal debt?
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Dec 15, 2014 23:30
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Presumably they don't want to call it for what it is in order to avoid undermining confidence. Right now it's all speculation and rumour but once the Bank of Canada or government recognizes it as a bubble people will start paying attention. Officially recognizing it will also require a policy change from both parties, which is unfortunate because the government has no ideas aside form status quo resource extraction and the BoC has no ideas aside from copying the US Fed - and since Canada is looking at a very different trajectory than that of the USA that means we're going to sit in a pot above full flame and convince ourselves that the water isn't going to boil.
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Dec 15, 2014 23:38
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The knock on effects of this are going to be enormous, but I wonder if there's a way to take advantage of it (that doesn't involve buying a house at rock bottom prices, obviously. I can't afford anything even 30% lower.)
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Dec 15, 2014 23:44
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Do we have any evidence that the BoC speaks in forked tongues as such?
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Dec 15, 2014 23:44
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Kafka Esq. posted:The knock on effects of this are going to be enormous, but I wonder if there's a way to take advantage of it (that doesn't involve buying a house at rock bottom prices, obviously. I can't afford anything even 30% lower.) Or just take the safe route and limit your exposure to Canada by making it a minor component (<20%) of your investment portfolio as it should be.
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Dec 15, 2014 23:54
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Kafka Esq. posted:The knock on effects of this are going to be enormous, but I wonder if there's a way to take advantage of it (that doesn't involve buying a house at rock bottom prices, obviously. I can't afford anything even 30% lower.) It's also funny that despite all the pundits crowing about the balanced vibrant Canadian economy, in terms of market cap energy and banking make up 60% of the total market cap in the country. By comparison for US the highest cap sector sector, IT/Tech makes up only 20% of all US equity.
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Dec 16, 2014 00:01
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Speaking of oil sector investment it kills me when I hear about people that put their life savings into the company they've worked for all their lives "because the stock does so well." The sheer amount of ruin it can bring to people about to retire when downturns occur in that sector is terrifying, especially if the company folds.
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Dec 16, 2014 00:17
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Baudin posted:Speaking of oil sector investment it kills me when I hear about people that put their life savings into the company they've worked for all their lives "because the stock does so well." The sheer amount of ruin it can bring to people about to retire when downturns occur in that sector is terrifying, especially if the company folds. Investing in the traded equity of your employer (beyond the point of taking advantage of the free money of share-purchase schemes and then divesting ASAP) is outright insanity.
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Dec 16, 2014 00:22
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Baudin posted:Speaking of oil sector investment it kills me when I hear about people that put their life savings into the company they've worked for all their lives "because the stock does so well." The sheer amount of ruin it can bring to people about to retire when downturns occur in that sector is terrifying, especially if the company folds. I participate in a company stock program but mainly because it has a 15% discount, along with just a single month holding period before you can sell. People do get into trouble by holding company stock for too long since they think will get extra rich by holding it longer. On a side note Suncor has already dropped by 50% this year from the 52 week high. Basically across the board canadian energy company dropped like a stone in december, with many companies being 50-60% lower than their pre-famine highs.
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Dec 16, 2014 00:25
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Lexicon posted:Investing in the traded equity of your employer (beyond the point of taking advantage of the free money of share-purchase schemes and then divesting ASAP) is outright insanity. How about borrowing to buy as many stocks as possible every year to invest as much as feasible since you get a 30% or so lower price?  e:Though I introduced this as an oil company thing it applies to apparently a wide array of sectors. God drat this reminds me of the 20's etalian posted:Basically across the board canadian energy company dropped like a stone in december, with many companies being 50-60% lower than their pre-famine highs. I'm starting to look at some of the stronger energy companies to see if there are many that are significantly undervalued (I was also considering the banks because hot drat do I like some regular dividends). Baudin fucked around with this message at 00:36 on Dec 16, 2014 |
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Dec 16, 2014 00:34
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Baudin posted:How about borrowing to buy as many stocks as possible every year to invest as much as feasible since you get a 30% or so lower price? Well if anything it's a good bargin hunting opportunity assuming you can wait a few years for a feast commodity cycle and also have stock fun money to wager. The large cap energy stocks are good bet IMO given their PE, good rainy day funds and also low price to book. Suncor:  You could also buy a Canadian energy/global energy sector ETFs instead of going with individual company stock. In Warren Buffet's hamburger story you want to buy the hamburgers when they are cheap not when they are rising in price. etalian fucked around with this message at 00:52 on Dec 16, 2014 |
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Dec 16, 2014 00:45
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etalian posted:Well if anything it's a good bargin hunting opportunity assuming you can wait a few years for a feast commodity cycle and also have stock fun money to wager. Pretty much exactly what I was thinking. I have an aversion to investing in stocks involving the local economy, especially when it's doing well (unlike my entire family, apparently) but I think I'll break it in this instance.
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Dec 16, 2014 00:52
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Baudin posted:Pretty much exactly what I was thinking. I have an aversion to investing in stocks involving the local economy, especially when it's doing well (unlike my entire family, apparently) but I think I'll break it in this instance. If you don't want to invest in single stocks there are energy ETFs for Canada or on the higher level global energy sector ETFs. Basically it's been a really lovely month for energy stocks in general, with even large cap companies seeing a 50% swan dive from their 52 week high. 
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Dec 16, 2014 00:54
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cowofwar posted:Presumably they don't want to call it for what it is in order to avoid undermining confidence. Right now it's all speculation and rumour but once the Bank of Canada or government recognizes it as a bubble people will start paying attention. Officially recognizing it will also require a policy change from both parties, which is unfortunate because the government has no ideas aside form status quo resource extraction and the BoC has no ideas aside from copying the US Fed - and since Canada is looking at a very different trajectory than that of the USA that means we're going to sit in a pot above full flame and convince ourselves that the water isn't going to boil. Nobody wants to repeat a Greenspan and speak truth which causes the markets to poo poo themselves. Irrational exuberance definitely applies here though.
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Dec 16, 2014 01:05
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Still waiting for the inevitable meltdown of Canadian finance companies and REITs.
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Dec 16, 2014 01:12
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etalian posted:Suncor: Warren Buffet owns quite a lot of Suncor Hamburgers too.
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Dec 16, 2014 01:18
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Saltin posted:Warren Buffet owns quite a lot of Suncor Hamburgers too. Ironically he bought Suncor around its peak value 14 months ago since he got excited over the whole tar sands scheme.
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Dec 16, 2014 01:24
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etalian posted:Ironically he bought Suncor around its peak value 14 months ago since he got excited over the whole tar sands scheme. And now we drink his milkshake. 
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Dec 16, 2014 01:34
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Rime posted:And now we drink his milkshake. 
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Dec 16, 2014 01:36
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cowofwar posted:Presumably they don't want to call it for what it is in order to avoid undermining confidence. Right now it's all speculation and rumour but once the Bank of Canada or government recognizes it as a bubble people will start paying attention. Officially recognizing it will also require a policy change from both parties, which is unfortunate because the government has no ideas aside form status quo resource extraction and the BoC has no ideas aside from copying the US Fed - and since Canada is looking at a very different trajectory than that of the USA that means we're going to sit in a pot above full flame and convince ourselves that the water isn't going to boil. The next ~2 years will be very interesting. Nobody knows what overall effect this year's events will have, and that sure as heck isn't a good thing.
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Dec 16, 2014 02:15
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melon cat posted:And to add that list- the BOC has no wiggle room. When the markets are behaving the way they are right now (ie. lots of uncertainty, and a slumping dollar) they'd usually cut interest rates. But since they cut rates to all-time lows, then failed to increase them a bit to cool off the housing market, they don't have that option anymore. Well at least the oil sector crash horseman has arrived, still watching for the real estate and financial sectors to catch up.
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Dec 16, 2014 02:56
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etalian posted:Well at least the oil sector crash horseman has arrived, still watching for the real estate and financial sectors to catch up. Nice analogy, but what's the fourth horseman? (Ah, who am I kidding. We all know that it'll be government spending, which will no doubt see absurd cuts in the name of "austerity". A word that, by the way, will always remind me of Shen-ji Yang and the Ascetic Virtues... and I'm not sure why.)
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Dec 16, 2014 03:05
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Just think of it as a low budget prequel to what will happen in Australia. Also thanks for the dirt cheap Canadian energy stocks Obama!
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Dec 16, 2014 03:10
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David Corbett posted:Nice analogy, but what's the fourth horseman? The fourth horseman is the Service Economy.
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Dec 16, 2014 03:13
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David Corbett posted:Nice analogy, but what's the fourth horseman? The 4th horseman is bail-ins. Where the system itself no longer has enough liquidity or pledgable assets to give for repo markets to function properly. The only reason the TALF and TARP programs worked was because the Federal Reserve was able to offer money for all forms of toxic debts and their overlying swaps/derivs/clo's that let people trade and give credit on their gross balance sheet strength vs. their net balance sheet strength. If you look at most contained credit events, the main blowout is not the sudden shock in bond yields or equity risk premiums but when suddenly you have a shock to the market and then funds and markets can no longer move volumes necessary for the price mechanism to work. A good example of this is all the Canadian investment funds that blew up this weekend and the blowouts in the E&P sector on the TSX. It was not the bond yields that blew out some of those names, it was when suddenly banks had to price and get their own books flat when large blocks of equity, derivs and debts suddenly were asked to move, and there was no second market to offtake that risk, so they had to "net" that into the existing market tape, which led to massive pressure downards. The same thing happened in Greece and is happening in Russia and Japan's bond market. Various websites have wrote quite a bit on the market breaks which now happen on a semi-hourly basis in the Japanese and US Treasury STRIP markets. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2012/sdn1203.pdf The only thing that is pretty much holding Canada's financial sector together is that BoC has one of the largest non-leveraged balance sheets out there. Next to the IMF and the German Bud, if push came to shove, the Saudi, Canada, ECB and BoE would likely be called on with the IMF to form a SDR after a debt jubilee which would collapse most of the currency and swap market in a huge rate reset. Note, the chances of that happening according to the othernight market and VIX (the oil VIX is higher) is about 10% now, but since you asked what the 4th horseman may be, I thought I'd pipe in. It's for this reason that when you get to a certain level, as Draghi said; deflation is no joke, and it really is 'whatever it takes' to get out of the liquidity trap. This poo poo is capital gains, and wealth effect caustic quicksand (to keep it Frack related!). Edit2: While the post above on 'thanks for the cheap energy stocks Obama' is cute, you may want to ask your Parents or a broker/dealer for a copy of the BMO Energy or Goldman Commodity outlooks today which pretty aptly describe what happens in a balance sheet recessionary bear market. Hint: those energy stocks which trade at a 18%/a yield on equity are about XYZ% overvalued when pricing in their cash-sustainable CAPEX and FD cost. Edit3: BoC has very little wiggle room, since there are like zero primary central banks to the main-clearing market dealer (the central bank of central banks) which have any creditability left, ex-UK, CAD & EU. And EU is a joke, as per Mario's constant comments on easing. If Canada does a QE, like we did in the 90's where we sold some of our gold to shore up our FX reserves to prevent a credit crisis post-Trudeau spending binge, then we will be in the same liquidity trap that killed Ireland & Portugal. And nearly nuked CIBC & Desjardins via ABCP. Hal_2005 fucked around with this message at 04:26 on Dec 16, 2014 |
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Dec 16, 2014 04:20
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Hal_2005 posted:wisdom and science awesome post
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Dec 16, 2014 04:34
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Alberta will have to make ends meet in other ways such as being a low cost on-location spot for the next Lord of the Rings film.
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Dec 16, 2014 04:47
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etalian posted:Alberta will have to make ends meet in other ways such as being a low cost on-location spot for the next Lord of the Rings film. Is the geography similar to the South Island?
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Dec 16, 2014 04:54
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Cultural Imperial posted:awesome post ty, If you look around, there are websites where if you ask nicely, you can likely get the reports reprinted without their institutional watermarks. Gamersgate is fun and all, but to be 100% honest, from where I sit, and a few other goons (a few you would recognize on CNBC and Bloomberg; no, not Charlie Rose), this problem is likely going to be something people need to take seriously. Not "goldbug" level, but if ever there was a time to be seriously vested and learn WTF Hal means when he says that zany poo poo about swaps and your RRSP's Value at Risk (or exposure to currency related theta decay), now would be a really good time to learn some poo poo. It would also be close to the point where asking questions such as: if the 10-year market suddenly expands by YYZ%, what will happen to my ability to roll over my student loan. If loan demand for subprime or BB+ rated small business loans suddenly crater, what will that mean for your ability to startup or if you are in a venture backed industry, how will that affect both your gate-keeping clauses and liquidity event. Or: An average market event leads to a 28% loss in capital gains. The average 3-year loss on an index fund has been 5%. Could you deal with a 18% loss in wealth, esp. if that is tied to your total personal margin ? What if it took you 19 years to get back to that same level, as it did for those who invested in the NASDAQ from 1995 to 2001. Or: If Moore's law holds for software (and it is, given the advancement of C# and cryptography), it is expected that in the next 5 years every graduate post-2010 will be needing to upgrade their training talents every 5 years just to keep their skills and productivity competitive with the global replacement rate of human capital, mostly due to India and Chinese high-value workcenters outsourcing and replacing Canadian, US and EU talent pools. In the period of 1955-1980 that replacement rate was 20 years, tightening to 7 years pre-crash in 2001. How many of you can or plan to afford to do a full masters degree or PHD at an ivy league school just to keep your wage parity trend with that of your babyboomer parents (where your wage grows by about 10% every 5 years, in real terms; as you move up the society ladder to CEO/Chairman gigs at 55-80, or at least happily retired in Florida?). Or: If the average CPI pension fund suddenly 'breaks the buck' because defined obligations of pensions are defined benifit, and to match your obligations the fund must return 18% per year, and the market only returns 7%; and suddenly your defined plan becomes a PayGo against your will; or you are given a lump sum like the UAW spinouts (and what will happen to the Detroit funds); how will that affect your financial planning scenario & retirement off-ramp. Personally? that is what I'd be directing interest towards. I'd also suggest D&D do a hard 180 pivot towards focusing less on Communist and more co-educating on both financial literacy and regional geopolitical/socioeconomic information sharing. Hal_2005 fucked around with this message at 05:17 on Dec 16, 2014 |
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Dec 16, 2014 05:05
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Hal_2005 posted:I'd also suggest D&D do a hard 180 pivot towards focusing less on Communist and more co-educating on both financial literacy and regional geopolitical/socioeconomic information sharing.  The lack of personal and familial economic options is a big part of the reason why D&D swings Left IMO. Nitpick: To say D&D is Communist or focused on Communism is hyperbolic. LF was more like that. D&D on the whole would be better described as: 'Socialist for the Needs, Capitalist for the Wants'.
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Dec 16, 2014 05:33
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