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Bigass Moth
Mar 6, 2004

I joined the #RXT REVOLUTION.
:boom:
he knows...
This season has five goats in the final five but unfortunately one has to win. Even in the context of the season it is ok to say there are no strong players left.

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Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

Natalie isn't a goat. She's played hard and played well, going back to the early stages. When the guys were a mess and Drew was voting Kelley like a badass, Natalie pulled together the women to vote him out. Natalie went to Exile Island in place of Julie in order to solidify her bond with Baylor, and, in turn, Missy. Natalie was tight as can be with Jeremy but people didn't even realize how tight and Jeremy was their priority target.

Natalie made a kind of crazy move in keeping Keith, but covered it up successfully somehow so even if it seemed bad, it seems to have worked out for now. And, finally, Natalie just spearheaded the move to take out Jon, getting vengeance and taking out probably her biggest jury threat. She's guaranteed safe into the F4 because she has an immunity idol. If she makes it to the end she probably wins.

If she wins F4 immunity, which she has a good chance at (esp with Missy having a broken ankle, and even moreso if Keith goes out in fifth) then she gets to the end. If Keith is still around, there's a chance he will stick with her, too, because he's Keith. And finally, there's still a chance Missy or Baylor might willingly go to the jury at F4 which would guarantee Natalie's safety to the end (this possibility seems slightly stronger now that Jon says there was a plan for half of each couple to take a dive, and Missy's foot might also factor in). All of this lines up very well for Natalie.

She can still lose but she's put herself in a great position by virtue of being a good player.

IRQ
Sep 9, 2001

SUCK A DICK, DUMBSHITS!

Natalie most certainly has played a good game to get so many people who loving hated her going into this season to think she deserves to win.

At the same time yeah the other players are all goats.

Juanito
Jan 20, 2004

I wasn't paying attention
to what you just said.

Can you repeat yourself
in a more interesting way?
Hell Gem

Fast Luck posted:

Natalie isn't a goat.
[..]
She can still lose but she's put herself in a great position by virtue of being a good player.
I agree with your entire post. She hasn't had it easy either. The fact that she lost her partner first, is big. The fact that she and her sister were the only immediately recognizable people when the season started. I think people figured out Rocker, but it wasn't obvious the way the TWINNIES were.

Go Natalie.

King Burgundy
Sep 17, 2003

I am the Burgundy King,
I can do anything!

Fast Luck posted:

Natalie isn't a goat. [other good words]

Yes, this, exactly. I'm going to be really sad if she gets knocked out at 4.

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Always root for the trainwreck.
Missy/Jaclyn/Keith final!

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Yeah, Natalie's a legit good player and would be a solid-to-good winner.

Baylor's a bad player. But after Natalie she's the only one left who has even a shred of an argument to make for playing the game well. And even then when we've said that we've always said it under the hypothetical where she takes out Natalie. In that case she'd have two big moves she could claim and no obviously stupid moves like the others. Missy, Jaclyn, and Keith are basically working with negative credits.

Basically my power rankings at this stage look like this:

1) Natalie
...
...
...
2) Baylor
...
...
3) Missy
...
4) Jaclyn
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
5) Keith

Mills
Jun 13, 2003

It's just a shame that Natalie is a bigot.

Robnoxious
Feb 17, 2004

Mills posted:

It's just a shame that Natalie is a bigot.

She also raises roosters for cock fighting.

Narcissus1916
Apr 29, 2013

I'd be much more inclined to agree with everyone's "This is the worst strategy ever!" postings if you guys didn't say the same drat thing every year.

.....

Though this season is wretched.

Truther Vandross
Jun 17, 2008

Natalie was playing almost exclusively to remove Jon, which is great and all, but to act like she's a great player focused on winning is really disingenuous.

.TakaM
Oct 30, 2007

Natalie is going to win because of her dolphin rainbow shirt, she's pretty much cheating.

DaisyDanger
Feb 19, 2007

Sorry, a system error occurred.
No joke, I want that shirt.

bbf2
Nov 22, 2007

"The White Shadow"

Mills posted:

It's just a shame that Natalie is a bigot.

Did she say anything bigoted during her stints on TAR? I don't think she's said anything bigoted on this show, at least. Her sister did (with the "Josh is a girl" thing) and its natural to assume that they share the same sensibilities, but not necessarily a given so I don't think its fair to put that on her.
I never saw either of their TAR seasons so I have no idea if she said anything offensive on those, if she did I would like to know what it was to help inform my opinion for tomorrow night.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=

bbf2 posted:

Did she say anything bigoted during her stints on TAR? I don't think she's said anything bigoted on this show, at least. Her sister did (with the "Josh is a girl" thing) and its natural to assume that they share the same sensibilities, but not necessarily a given so I don't think its fair to put that on her.
I never saw either of their TAR seasons so I have no idea if she said anything offensive on those, if she did I would like to know what it was to help inform my opinion for tomorrow night.

They kept talking about another team as the "evil gays" but it was clearly in jest and the other team mentioned in interviews that they were really close with the Twinnies. I think they are just the type to want a gay best friend without realizing what they're actually saying. Rude but not intentionally cruel or anything.

Nexal
Apr 21, 2010

Moby - Extreme ways
Once again... Season 30 ... Probst is promoting everywhere that next season is gonna be GOOD. Just like caramoan :rolleyes: and he was suprised that people liked Philippines season. What is that Probst thinks is good? Big personalities?

Sudden Loud Noise
Feb 18, 2007

Nexal posted:

Once again... Season 30 ... Probst is promoting everywhere that next season is gonna be GOOD. Just like caramoan :rolleyes: and he was suprised that people liked Philippines season. What is that Probst thinks is good? Big personalities?

Tyler Perry will be literally be hidden somewhere on the island, holding an immunity idol. You must defeat him in combat to receive the idol.

Homestar Runner
Oct 9, 2012

This is the best videogame
I have ever played!

bbf2 posted:

Did she say anything bigoted during her stints on TAR? I don't think she's said anything bigoted on this show, at least. Her sister did (with the "Josh is a girl" thing) and its natural to assume that they share the same sensibilities, but not necessarily a given so I don't think its fair to put that on her.
I never saw either of their TAR seasons so I have no idea if she said anything offensive on those, if she did I would like to know what it was to help inform my opinion for tomorrow night.

she's a crossfit coach so at the very least it's safe to assume she's Real Dumb

Robnoxious
Feb 17, 2004

Sudden Loud Noise posted:

Tyler Perry will be literally be hidden somewhere on the island, holding an immunity idol. You must defeat him in combat to receive the idol.
I think we've seen the last of the Tyler Perry Idol and Redemption Island.
Enough blowback has shown that the dwindling public still watching have had enough of that poo poo.

Anonymous Zebra
Oct 21, 2005
Blending in like it ain't no thang
The best part is that the Tyler Perry Idol didn't even get used. Like its special power could have literally been "This realistic idol is completely useless, and is just for show" and Tony's tactic still would have worked.

Binary Logic
Dec 28, 2000

Fun Shoe

Anonymous Zebra posted:

The best part is that the Tyler Perry Idol didn't even get used. Like its special power could have literally been "This realistic idol is completely useless, and is just for show" and Tony's tactic still would have worked.

Of course it got used, as a threat that trying to vote Tony out would not work. It allowed him to be very aggressive and at times obnoxious because he knew he was safe.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

Hey Hey Let's Go! 喧嘩する
大切な物を protect my balls


Anonymous Zebra posted:

The best part is that the Tyler Perry Idol didn't even get used. Like its special power could have literally been "This realistic idol is completely useless, and is just for show" and Tony's tactic still would have worked.

Sorry, it never got played. It got used heavily...

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

I just watched the Ponderosa videos and I'm a little worried that Natalie doesn't seem to get any credit from the jury. Jeremy is legitimately confused when he gets voted out as to why Natalie betrayed him and even when Wes tells him she didn't he doesn't seem to really believe it. I assume Reed and Jon set Jeremy straight but who knows with this crew? Then when Jon gets voted out he and Alec assign all the credit to Missy, literally the least deserving person of that credit.

I'm a little concerned that even if Natalie can get to the F3 that if Missy is there she might just steal all the credit since Natalie played too subtle a game.

IRQ
Sep 9, 2001

SUCK A DICK, DUMBSHITS!

Well that would be the poo poo icing on the poo poo cake that has been this season.

Narcissus1916
Apr 29, 2013

I kind've want Missy to win a million dollars.

Just because, holy poo poo, that's some great tabloid fodder.

Robnoxious
Feb 17, 2004

Narcissus1916 posted:

I kind've want Missy to win a million dollars.

Just because, holy poo poo, that's some great tabloid fodder.
Muffin wins the million and gets it all swindled from the first guy she meets on Dial-A-Date.

Bjay9
May 3, 2011

Kid, touch is for video games and gynecologists
Let's be serious with ourselves though. IF Keith/Missy/Jacquelyn win, we might finally be able to say there is a winner less deserving than Fabio. Let that sink in.


And I love me some Fabio.

Bigass Moth
Mar 6, 2004

I joined the #RXT REVOLUTION.
:boom:
he knows...

Bjay9 posted:

Let's be serious with ourselves though. IF Keith/Missy/Jacquelyn win, we might finally be able to say there is a winner less deserving than Fabio. Let that sink in.


And I love me some Fabio.

Bob was worse than Fabio IMO.

Nexal
Apr 21, 2010

Moby - Extreme ways
When is the finale?

Adus
Nov 4, 2009

heck
fabio might be one of the "worst" winners, but he definitely deserved to win that dumb season at least out of those in the finals. sash and chase were just that bad at the social game that fabio's general lack of one was still better.

Bjay9
May 3, 2011

Kid, touch is for video games and gynecologists

Bigass Moth posted:

Bob was worse than Fabio IMO.

Bob was awesome because Sugar handed him the win plus come on, he was like an adorable grandpa.


Nexal posted:

When is the finale?

Tonight!

UltimoDragonQuest
Oct 5, 2011



Nexal posted:

When is the finale?
1h20 from now
8pm EST

thexerox123
Aug 17, 2007

Bigass Moth posted:

Bob was worse than Fabio IMO.

Except he made the most impressive fake idol in the history of the game! And a second one! Bob was great. And he actually won a whole lot of challenges.

thexerox123 fucked around with this message at 00:47 on Dec 18, 2014

Nexal
Apr 21, 2010

Moby - Extreme ways

UltimoDragonQuest posted:

1h20 from now
8pm EST

Thank you.

IRQ
Sep 9, 2001

SUCK A DICK, DUMBSHITS!

Bjay9 posted:

Let's be serious with ourselves though. IF Keith/Missy/Jacquelyn win, we might finally be able to say there is a winner less deserving than Fabio. Let that sink in.


And I love me some Fabio.

Ironically, you meant Natalie from Samoa, the name of the most deserving potential winner for this season and also the least deserving winner of all time (for the next 3 hours anyway).

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
Even if Natalie loses, at least after the past few episodes she's probably won a spot on the next returning players season. Might be fun to see her play with smarter players.

Deceptive
Dec 27, 2012

mancalamania posted:

Even if Natalie loses, at least after the past few episodes she's probably won a spot on the next returning players season. Might be fun to see her play with smarter players.

That would require her to go on a season with her twin though.

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova

Bigass Moth posted:

Bob was worse than Fabio IMO.

Bob is underrated as a bad winner; his jury performance is astonishingly bad and it's tainted even more because he seems to have been handed the win by an Onions + Randy jury alliance.

On the other hand Susie would have been the winner otherwise, so. The narrative of that season is basically "who does Sugar want to win the game" and since the jury would never acknowledge her greatness, a Bob win will suffice. He should also get credit for surviving to the end basically by virtue of him being the only sane person on that season

Mercaptopropyl
Sep 16, 2006

I can be framed easier than Whistler's Mother
I'm halfway through the Ponderosa videos so far and I'm not really sure if they're worth it but Wes was pretty hilarious.

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Nexal
Apr 21, 2010

Moby - Extreme ways
Previously on Survivor...

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