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Ardennes posted:Supposedly, anti-Americanism is way way up in Moscow, and Western businessmen have been leaving. I think it is going to be touch and go for a while, reserves will be burnt off and on for a while. The Russians still need higher oil prices. You said you've worked in Moscow- what is the relationship between natives and foreign workers usually like? After the bombing of the Chinese embassy things got real tense between regular people and expats, but as I understand it, never so bad that people were leaving jobs.
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Dec 26, 2014 05:12
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Nintendo Kid posted:No you didn't, as it was a joke about Germans invading in World War I and World War II. (as well as various annexations and other wars, but primarily the Kaiser and the Fuhrer).
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Dec 26, 2014 05:14
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Dilkington posted:You said you've worked in Moscow- what is the relationship between natives and foreign workers usually like? After the bombing of the Chinese embassy things got real tense between regular people and expats, but as I understand it, never so bad that people were leaving jobs. Well, the Kosovo war was way way before my time, but things have steadily gotten more tense in the past year but far from hostile. It is a lot more difficult to hate someone that you know and have beers with. I left in November but I have only hear second hand from that point, supposedly the last 2 weeks have been a real deep decline in perception. I just picture this the kindling for a bonfire being built and built on top of itself. That said there are a lot of moving parts about the economic question though and I do think it is a question of dollar and cents.
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Dec 26, 2014 06:07
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Ardennes posted:I don't know if I want to bring up the previous discussion on Lenin but very little of it is actually corroborated by sources or is readily accepted by most of Anglophone/American academics. That's hardly surprising, seeing as how the argument was basically about what Lenin could have been had he possessed Stalin's resources, not what he was. Luckily, academics don't deal in could have beens. He was unscrupulous in his methods (see revolutionary terror), extremist in his ideals (see the third international), application of most of his moderate policies could be described as abolishment of moderation, not active moderation, which could be ascribed to inability to commit due to lack of resources, manpower or popular support. Anyways, this was about comparing Lenin's and Stalin's ethnic policies. I claim they were as different as British colonial policies towards the native americans during and before the American war for Independence.
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Dec 26, 2014 06:59
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Ardennes posted:Well, the Kosovo war was way way before my time, but things have steadily gotten more tense in the past year but far from hostile. It is a lot more difficult to hate someone that you know and have beers with. I left in November but I have only hear second hand from that point, supposedly the last 2 weeks have been a real deep decline in perception. This worries me. I've applied for a fellowship to live and work in Moscow after graduation, though I haven't been declined or accepted yet. I've been told that Fulbrights have been pulled out of Moscow, but I haven't been able to find any reports to substantiate it.
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Dec 26, 2014 07:19
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blainestereo posted:That's hardly surprising, seeing as how the argument was basically about what Lenin could have been had he possessed Stalin's resources, not what he was. Luckily, academics don't deal in could have beens. In reality his approach to affairs after the civil war were actually rather cooperative to the West, and the proof is in his economics proposals from the late civil war period. He was a brutal man among brutal men fighting brutal men, but the "extremism" of Bolshevikism wasn't unique to itself in many ways and when the Reds had the upper hand they were only too happy to start cooperating to keep the country functioning. Stalin was completely different and had a vision he wanted to put into action bar the consequence. I have I feeling your grasp of the actual sources of the period are loose compared to selective secondary material. Shes Not Impressed posted:This worries me. I've applied for a fellowship to live and work in Moscow after graduation, though I haven't been declined or accepted yet. I've been told that Fulbrights have been pulled out of Moscow, but I haven't been able to find any reports to substantiate it. I wish I had good news, we will see in the new year. I haven't heard about Fulbrights but I know AC has been out for a while at this point and that American business have pulled out or have sent their families away. I still have friends there from various countries (including Russians themselves) and they are taking it different ways. I think this is the point that the flood of memories of the 1990s are coming back and fear is really growing. That said, it may settle into a slow lingering decline (sort of like the EU) that may moderate feelings a bit or it may suddenly all go to poo poo in the blink of an eye. Welcome to some interesting times.
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Dec 26, 2014 07:34
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blainestereo posted:...application of most of his moderate policies could be described as abolishment of moderation, not active moderation, which could be ascribed to inability to commit due to lack of resources, manpower or popular support. The word salad up front doesn't in any way explain what you mean, and unless you're next post is a erudite discussion of how the move from War Communism to the NEP represents the abolishment of moderation, I'm gonna have to assume you're just repeating a random selection of John Birch Society talking points. Ardennes posted:I have I feeling your grasp of the actual sources of the period are loose compared to selective secondary material. Nailed it. Shes Not Impressed posted:This worries me. I've applied for a fellowship to live and work in Moscow after graduation, though I haven't been declined or accepted yet. I've been told that Fulbrights have been pulled out of Moscow, but I haven't been able to find any reports to substantiate it. Even if they're not, the other big hurdle is getting the visa processed. I've heard from Russians (of various levels of repute) that US consulates are rejecting a lot more visas for Russians and generally creating more hassles, and that the Russian consulates have retaliated, or that it started the other way around. I haven't seen any official news about it, but I know of people from both countries that have been having more problems than normal, even when going through agencies that are supposed to know how to grease all the right palms.
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Dec 26, 2014 10:06
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Smerdyakov posted:Even if they're not, the other big hurdle is getting the visa processed. I've heard from Russians (of various levels of repute) that US consulates are rejecting a lot more visas for Russians and generally creating more hassles, and that the Russian consulates have retaliated, or that it started the other way around. I haven't seen any official news about it, but I know of people from both countries that have been having more problems than normal, even when going through agencies that are supposed to know how to grease all the right palms. In cases like these, regarding visas and the whole study abroad aspects, it seems like anecdotes carry more weight than any official channels. A Ukrainian kid lives on my floor and his parents live in Russia now running a furniture business. Apparently the ruble tanking has meant they've shut down their business for the whole winter and are coming back to the US to wait it out. I actually would rather visit now and understand the personal impact from a greater perspective, especially outside of Moscow. But besides my physical appearance allowing me to blend in, I can't imagine that the narrative propaganda isn't just going to tank a lot of prospects for inter-communication.
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Dec 26, 2014 10:42
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Smerdyakov posted:Even if they're not, the other big hurdle is getting the visa processed. I've heard from Russians (of various levels of repute) that US consulates are rejecting a lot more visas for Russians and generally creating more hassles, and that the Russian consulates have retaliated, or that it started the other way around. I haven't seen any official news about it, but I know of people from both countries that have been having more problems than normal, even when going through agencies that are supposed to know how to grease all the right palms. It has been a back and forth battle for a while, and I don't see it getting better. The State department more or less shutting down its summer work program was a giant blow to a lot of young Russians since it was pretty much the only way they could work in the US without a H-1B. It was a poorly regulated program that if anything let many employers be abusive, but it is even sadder that many Russians were happy to put up with it because it was better than their options back home. I have a friend that probably can't even get a US tourist visa at this point. The Russian visa process itself is obviously not a picnic either and obviously Putin has done plenty to make things less than hospitable. Shes Not Impressed posted:In cases like these, regarding visas and the whole study abroad aspects, it seems like anecdotes carry more weight than any official channels. I do think the future of Russia, especially on a social level is pretty hard to predict at this point and if anything I believe it is at a turning point (even if the odds are a negative one). I do find (on a personal level) that most Russians talk to, talk to me as an person not an American but if anything from what I have been hearing I might be speaking of a bygone age. I will admit all I have is anecdotal accounts and hearsay, it is hard to get a good source on public mood beyond polls. That said, if you are going there academically, there isn't much of a replacement for physically being there. I would say keep your ear to the ground and then make a gut check. If you do go, have flight insurance and think ahead about what your limits are. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 11:05 on Dec 26, 2014 |
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Dec 26, 2014 10:54
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Smerdyakov posted:The word salad up front doesn't in any way explain what you mean, and unless you're next post is a erudite discussion of how the move from War Communism to the NEP represents the abolishment of moderation, I'm gonna have to assume you're just repeating a random selection of John Birch Society talking points. Yeah, fine, NEP contradicts this theory big time. It's worth noting Stalin was a big proponent of NEP too though, right until the point where he decided to squeeze the country dry for industrialization's sake.
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Dec 26, 2014 10:58
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Along with electricity, it appears Visa has pulled the plug in Crimea. http://watcher.com.ua/2014/12/26/visa-zablokuvala-bankivski-kartky-v-krymu/ quote:The company ceased to serve users of Visa bank cards in Crimea: It is said in many posts on the forum peninsula. And the USS Donald Cook has entered the Black Sea to provide peace and stability to the region. http://cne-cna-c6f.dodlive.mil/uss-donald-cook-to-enter-black-sea-2/ HUGE PUBES A PLUS fucked around with this message at 13:42 on Dec 26, 2014 |
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Dec 26, 2014 13:39
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Smerdyakov posted:Even if they're not, the other big hurdle is getting the visa processed. I've heard from Russians (of various levels of repute) that US consulates are rejecting a lot more visas for Russians and generally creating more hassles, and that the Russian consulates have retaliated, or that it started the other way around. I haven't seen any official news about it, but I know of people from both countries that have been having more problems than normal, even when going through agencies that are supposed to know how to grease all the right palms. I'm not going into any detail, but that is not a real thing. It'd also be pretty hard to grease palms when it comes to Visas (not that this isn't a popular scam run by local lawyers in a lot of places, though). The palm greasing generally takes place with third parties like schools or employers. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 14:34 on Dec 26, 2014 |
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Dec 26, 2014 14:23
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HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:Along with electricity, it appears Visa has pulled the plug in Crimea.
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Dec 26, 2014 14:45
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Forgall posted:Not really sure what the point of double loving people of Crimea is... When in doubt, gently caress everyone.
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Dec 26, 2014 14:53
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Forgall posted:Not really sure what the point of double loving people of Crimea is... Hey, they voted to be part of Russia.
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Dec 26, 2014 15:08
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spacetoaster posted:Hey, they voted to be part of Russia.
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Dec 26, 2014 15:14
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That kinda seems lovely. You can't access your funds and you have a foreign occupying force on your land. drat.
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Dec 26, 2014 15:22
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kalstrams posted:*loud minority Everybody I know was for it. Except for the tartars. They knew what was coming again for this.
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Dec 26, 2014 15:36
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spacetoaster posted:Everybody I know was for it. Edit: awesome-express posted:That kinda seems lovely. You can't access your funds and you have a foreign occupying force on your land. drat. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 16:06 on Dec 26, 2014 |
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Dec 26, 2014 16:03
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kalstrams posted:If I were a hellspawn I too would be against an Orthodox rule. On a more serious note, even Russian government has said that it was some 30ish percents in reality - I can dig up the numbers if you really want me to. Please do.
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Dec 26, 2014 16:04
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kalstrams posted:Russian government has said that it was some 30ish percents in reality - I can dig up the numbers if you really want me to. I'm not arguing. The Russians are who I talk to in Crimea. When this was going down they were all so positive about it. Now that's a minority position. Heck, my family won't even talk too much to me because everyone is afraid of the FSB.
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Dec 26, 2014 16:14
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Disinterested posted:Please do. Titled "Problems of inhabitants of Crimea", report by President's council of societal development and human rights of Russian Federation, goes into some matters in some detail. One of the points is about referendum, which, in accordance with opinions literally every specialist and citizen interview, concludes following:
Imagine real numbers if this is official report. Edit: spacetoaster posted:I'm not arguing. The Russians are who I talk to in Crimea. Edit2: Don't take this personal, but your parents having to mind their words does not sound too positive either. Edit3: Simple math, to put Crimea and Sevastopol together (while that is not too applicable, someone may be curious statistically), puts 7.98% - 12.77% (Sev) + 12.45% - 24.91% (Cri) = from 20.43% to 37.68% people voted 'for' in referendum, and six out of seven voters did not necessarily agree with goal of the referendum. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 16:30 on Dec 26, 2014 |
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Dec 26, 2014 16:15
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kalstrams posted:
No kidding.  I simply said the people I talked to which amounts to a handful of Russians. kalstrams posted:
Why would I take that personal? And nobody is claiming that it's "positive". I thought everyone was stupid for going to Russia. Everything was looking really good for the future and now it's all smashed. I'm pretty pissed off TBH. *edit* And I'm worried about whether I can sell my vacation home/stuff, because I don't think I'll be wanting to go back. spacetoaster fucked around with this message at 17:00 on Dec 26, 2014 |
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Dec 26, 2014 16:57
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My reading skills strike back.  How much do dachas go for in Crimea? spacetoaster posted:Why would I take that personal? And nobody is claiming that it's "positive". On a side note, we have people who will advocate that it's positive and great, though their posting efforts have seen decline together with the rouble. 
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Dec 26, 2014 17:07
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Russia and South Ossetia will integrate in February on a "deeper" level than Russia has with Abkhazia. Echo Moscow speculates that this could lead to formal annexation of South Ossetia. http://itar-tass.com/en/russia/769374
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Dec 26, 2014 17:13
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http://news.yahoo.com/dollar-mortga...zk4XzEEc2VjA3Nj So Russians have mortgages denominated in USD because Jesus Christ why?
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Dec 26, 2014 17:30
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Three Olives posted:http://news.yahoo.com/dollar-mortga...zk4XzEEc2VjA3Nj Banks offered lower interest rates on USD mortgages because they're vultures and people took it because they didn't realize how bad an idea that is.
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Dec 26, 2014 17:34
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Zeroisanumber posted:Banks offered lower interest rates on USD mortgages because they're vultures and people took it because they didn't realize how bad an idea that is. Granted my context is being from the US and as such having everything denominated in the de facto world reserve currency but it absolutely blows my mind that someone would take out a huge loan denominated in powerful and stable foreign currency, like the only way that could not gently caress you over is if the US tanked which would be devastating worldwide financial markets.
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Dec 26, 2014 17:50
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Three Olives posted:Granted my context is being from the US and as such having everything denominated in the de facto world reserve currency but it absolutely blows my mind that someone would take out a huge loan denominated in powerful and stable foreign currency, like the only way that could not gently caress you over is if the US tanked which would be devastating worldwide financial markets. If both currencies held completely steady, it'd be a fine deal. But looking at the macro it's a dumb idea and a colossal risk.
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Dec 26, 2014 18:00
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There are people in major metropolitan areas who collect salaries in foreign currency. For them, it makes financial sense. But I suspect they make up a single digit minority of all those loan holders. Also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0y6xUxaqNa4
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Dec 26, 2014 18:05
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Zeroisanumber posted:If both currencies held completely steady, it'd be a fine deal. But looking at the macro it's a dumb idea and a colossal risk. I could kind of understand that if you were say taking a loan out in another third tier currency but betting that your currency is going to hold steady against the de facto world reserve currency is madness, at best you are just hoping that you don't get completely hosed.
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Dec 26, 2014 18:07
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blainestereo posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqSamAsouAc From a while ago but this is oddly catchy. No idea what the hell is going on in it though.
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Dec 26, 2014 18:10
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Three Olives posted:http://news.yahoo.com/dollar-mortga...zk4XzEEc2VjA3Nj Three Olives posted:I could kind of understand that if you were say taking a loan out in another third tier currency but betting that your currency is going to hold steady against the de facto world reserve currency is madness, at best you are just hoping that you don't get completely hosed. The reason is that non-Russian banks like Nordea have been offering loans to Russians on lower interest rates pegged to the dollar or the euro. The banks knew that the rouble was volatile as all gently caress so no bank outside of Russia wants to loan anything in it, even though they might have wanted to get into the Russian markets during the good times. Basically, the Russians who took loans pegged to foreign currencies prior to the current Russian economic crisis took a gamble to benefit from the lower interest rates that the euro and the dollar enjoyed on account of European and American central bank's actions, and lost. Not really a matter of greed by banks.
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Dec 26, 2014 18:36
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http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-saudis-decided-not-to-prop-up-oil-1419219182 I thought this was a really interesting look at how hosed Russia is with oil, it seems prevailing wisdom is the US was jacking with oil prices to hurt Russia and Iran but what is really happening is US oil production costs have scared the poo poo out of the Middle East and we probably aren't close to the oil floor yet.
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Dec 26, 2014 18:59
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So Russia's got a new military doctrine, judging the Ukraine conflict and NATO are a serious threat to the security of the nation. Let me just say 
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Dec 26, 2014 19:09
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kalstrams posted:
Just depends. I got mine 15 years ago. Then it was about 20,000 U.S. dollars. I honestly had semi-serious plans about just moving there when I retire.
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Dec 26, 2014 20:57
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Well, tough luck. While I'd like to say something other than "welp", I don't foresee changes for good in Crimea, not in the near future at least.
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Dec 26, 2014 21:05
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kalstrams posted:Well, tough luck. While I'd like to say something other than "welp", I don't foresee changes for good in Crimea, not in the near future at least. Yeah, the money isn't an issue, years of awesome vacations to Crimea have made it more than worth the loss now. I'm currently "lawyer" shopping for getting my family moved out. Romania seems to really have it's stuff together, so that might be a good second home too.
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Dec 26, 2014 21:09
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spacetoaster posted:Romania seems to really have it's stuff together, so that might be a good second home too. Comparatively to Ukraine: yes. By any other standard: no.
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Dec 26, 2014 21:10
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spacetoaster posted:Romania seems to really have it's stuff together, so that might be a good second home too. Don't they have a problem with crazy ultranationalists making GBS threads up their government or was that someone else?
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Dec 26, 2014 21:13
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