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ErIog posted:That's the thing, right. All the stuff about how moderate positions are death doesn't hold up to the scrutiny of the 2012 race. Romney was responsible for Romneycare, but he was the nominee despite the Massachusetts baggage. I think Jeb Bush could pull that same thing. The important thing about the 2012 primaries is that they went on forever, made the GOP look like a bunch of reactionary racist lunatics, gave Obama a huge lead time to define Romney as a vulture capitalist, and forced Romney into endorsing unpopular hard right positions like "self-deportation." The smart money going into 2012 was on Romney taking the nomination, the GOP still tends to hand the nomination to the next guy in line. The issue is what he had to do to secure it, and how long it took. And there's every reason to believe that Bush will face the same problems. In fact, he'll probably face greater problems. Railing against illegal immigrants hurt Romney in the general election, but he could speak in terms of potential legislation. Bush is going to have to answer what he'd do to Obama's executive orders and the millions of people they already cover. Same thing with Obamacare. McConnell got away with lying through his teeth about how he'd destroy Obamacare but nobody would lose their healthcare, national Democrats are unlikely to be as incompetent as to let that slide. The Insect Court fucked around with this message at 10:29 on Jan 2, 2015 |
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Jan 2, 2015 10:27
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Caros posted:Please tell me that washed up santorum was intentional. aw man
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Jan 2, 2015 10:36
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Cliff Racer posted:He really doesn't. He'd be lucky to crack 200 electoral votes. He looks good until you press him hard. He's all surface and nothing else.
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Jan 2, 2015 12:16
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PupsOfWar posted:aw man Serendipity is every bit as good as intention.
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Jan 2, 2015 16:18
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PupsOfWar posted:The establishment is aware that they need a moderate and will throw all of their money and influence in that direction. Dr. Ben Carson was told by God to run, so he's got that going for him. The big problem for the winning establishment candidate this time is that not only does he have to deal with the menagerie of insanity from the unwinables, he's also got competition from people who could win the nomination. So the collection of filled suits are going to have to find ways to pull in votes to replace the splintered establishment/reasonable/pants not on head/moderate block of votes they'll lose to other candidates. The RNC is going to try as hard as possible to control this crazy train, but we all know the wheels are held on with gum and the breaks should have been serviced 30 years ago. Also with Hillary Clinton running there's going to be a lot of people on the right who have convinced themselves she can't win nationally. So the mantra of "Conservatism can't fail, it can only be failed" could toss a couple monkey wrenches at the crazy train itself.
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Jan 2, 2015 18:57
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Carson told NewsMax TV that he will announce whether he is running by May 1st. Stay tuned, America!
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Jan 2, 2015 18:59
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Joementum posted:Carson told NewsMax TV that he will announce whether he is running by May 1st. Stay tuned, America! Dr. Carson may not be the crank America wants, he's certainly the crank with some pill issues America deserves.
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Jan 2, 2015 19:10
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Saw a handmade Ted Cruz 2016 bumper sticker this morning...it's happening!
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Jan 2, 2015 19:44
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I've seen a bunch of Carson ones around, and it's always some white dude.
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Jan 2, 2015 19:48
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Sir Tonk posted:I've seen a bunch of Carson ones around, and it's always some white dude. Can confirm that I saw this at a farm supply co op in Mississippi.
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Jan 2, 2015 19:56
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Cliff Racer posted:He really doesn't. He'd be lucky to crack 200 electoral votes. Democrats have to be real careful, if he can make it out of the Primary against a candidate like Hillary Clinton he maybe formidable. He is going to pull off some younger voters for being isolationist and pro-weed. He is going to have the business class behind him and the Republican nutters are gonna be excited in a general election.
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Jan 3, 2015 23:14
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Mooseontheloose posted:Democrats have to be real careful, if he can make it out of the Primary against a candidate like Hillary Clinton he maybe formidable. No, Dr. Ben Carson has no chance at all of coming anywhere near Presidency. He is a joke candidate. Edit: Just, no.
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Jan 3, 2015 23:15
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Pohl posted:No, Dr. Ben Carson has no chance at all of coming anywhere near Presidency. He is a joke candidate. That post was about Rand Paul. Mooseontheloose posted:He is going to pull off some younger voters for being isolationist and pro-weed. He is going to have the business class behind him and the Republican nutters are gonna be excited in a general election. Hilay will not touch isolationist at all, but I hardly see anything stopping her from being as pro-weed as Paul is. Its not like the drug war is something Democrats inherently love. Paul will likely go to legalising opium, heroin and cocaine, and Clinton will not touch that. But those drugs aren't as popular or as liked as Marijuana.
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Jan 3, 2015 23:18
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Fulchrum posted:That post was about Rand Paul. Well poo poo, I guess I got Carson stuck in my head and I was kinda confused because I don't think Carson talks about legalizing drugs. So yeah. I guess I can just reiterate my point, No. Rand Paul is not going to win, he doesn't even stand a chance. So, no.
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Jan 3, 2015 23:23
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Fulchrum posted:Paul will likely go to legalising opium, heroin and cocaine, and Clinton will not touch that. But those drugs aren't as popular or as liked as Marijuana. I sincerely doubt Paul will of his own accord go in on legalizing anything harder than weed, though I would expect any number of blandly-nonspecific "decriminalize drugs/end the Pohl posted:I guess I can just reiterate my point, No. He's got long odds, but Paul isn't as obviously a walking punchline like Carson, and if he manages to inherit his father's rabid followers, he can at least put in a performance during the primaries, potentially a strong one if the field remains as weak/contaminated as it currently is.
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Jan 3, 2015 23:24
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Here comes Huckabee!
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Jan 4, 2015 01:01
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There has to be an expiration date on calling yourself Governor.
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Jan 4, 2015 01:04
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Fulchrum posted:Paul will likely go to legalising opium, heroin and cocaine
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Jan 4, 2015 01:09
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ufarn posted:There has to be an expiration date on calling yourself Governor. Why? Sarah Palin didn't finish one term and she's still called Governor. Ben Carson: Black people had it better when they were slaves. Obamacare bad. Rand Paul: Ron Paul lite. Mike Huckabee: I used my office as governor to commute the sentence of a convicted rapist, and as soon as he got out he raped and murdered again. Oh yeah, and I did it with another convict who then went on to murder four police officers.
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Jan 4, 2015 02:36
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ufarn posted:There has to be an expiration date on calling yourself Governor. Newt Gingrich still gets called 'Speaker Gingrich' when he was kicked out of that job 16 years ago.
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Jan 4, 2015 02:51
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Fulchrum posted:That post was about Rand Paul. I think he has a powerful narrative if it's the Bush/Clinton III. He is going to talk about new ideas and new people in government and new vision. I hate the man, I think his economic vision and idea of how society work is dangerous but I wouldn't sleep on him because he may have some exploitable ground going forward.
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Jan 4, 2015 02:57
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Aqua Buddah is not going to be the GOP nominee.
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Jan 4, 2015 03:11
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Mooseontheloose posted:I think he has a powerful narrative if it's the Bush/Clinton III. He is going to talk about new ideas and new people in government and new vision. I hate the man, I think his economic vision and idea of how society work is dangerous but I wouldn't sleep on him because he may have some exploitable ground going forward. Yes, I can see how a fresh faced, totally radical and new message would have great appeal to a party whose both name and political position emphasie how they hate anything and everything new.
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Jan 4, 2015 03:57
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That just makes Rand Paul sounds a rematch of Hillary vs Obama, if Obama were an acharismatic white Young Republican. I mean, it would be fun as hell to watch, but we may as well hope they run Santorum if we're dreaming.
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Jan 4, 2015 04:01
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I recently sent AsInHowe a link over AIM about this big tea party convention happening next weekend at a casino in the middle part of the state. One of the sponsors is Rick Santorum's Patriot Voices. He told me that Patroit Voices is literally a bunch of straight guys spending hours talking about sodomy, and if you don't want to talk about that you must be gay.
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Jan 4, 2015 04:17
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FWIW I'm pretty sure you get called your highest title achieved in many style guides and Post's etiquette.
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Jan 4, 2015 04:19
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all aboard the Huckabee train http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/04/us/politics/mike-huckabee-leaves-fox-news-show-to-consider-presidential-run.html
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Jan 4, 2015 05:10
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Also calling it now paradol ex style: my prediction is that Huckabee manages to rally the Republican right behind him and win the primaries against Jeb "Mexican" Bush and then lose to clinton
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Jan 4, 2015 05:12
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:all aboard the Huckabee train *Huckabee train is for heavy freight only, does not subsidize passengers
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Jan 4, 2015 05:13
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mooyashi posted:FWIW I'm pretty sure you get called your highest title achieved in many style guides and Post's etiquette. Yeah. Mr. President is always Mr. President, Governor is always Governor, and (my favorite) mayor is always, in extremely formal settings, "His Honor the Mayor." 
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Jan 4, 2015 05:22
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mooyashi posted:FWIW I'm pretty sure you get called your highest title achieved in many style guides and Post's etiquette. Do they have a hierarchy of all titles compared against each other? Like if someone was both a surgeon general and a 3-star general and speaker of the house what would he/she get called? If this is a bad example I am sure there are better ones.
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Jan 4, 2015 05:26
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Salvor_Hardin posted:Do they have a hierarchy of all titles compared against each other? Like if someone was both a surgeon general and a 3-star general and speaker of the house what would he/she get called? If this is a bad example I am sure there are better ones. Surgeon Generals have been one, three, and four star general equivalents (since they're all either rear admirals, vice admirals, or admirals, with the exception of the guy who served a short term under Reagan before Koop). So Surgeon Generals who were admirals would be the higher position than their 3 star general status.
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Jan 4, 2015 05:33
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Salvor_Hardin posted:Do they have a hierarchy of all titles compared against each other? Like if someone was both a surgeon general and a 3-star general and speaker of the house what would he/she get called? If this is a bad example I am sure there are better ones. That speaker one is super weird and I'm pretty sure they made it a thing just for Newt Gingrich during the 2012 primary cycle because otherwise it would have been Governor X, Senator X, Governor X and Mr. Gingrich. FWIW I might be wrong, but I cannot recall anyone ever referring to a former Speaker as anything other than (former) Congressman/Representative X before that.
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Jan 4, 2015 05:48
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:Also calling it now paradol ex style: my prediction is that Huckabee manages to rally the Republican right behind him and win the primaries against Jeb "Mexican" Bush and then lose to clinton If I were Reince, I might be back-channel encouraging Huckabee to run so that there would be a nonthreat to help split up the hard-right vote and deny Cruz/Rand their natural constituencies. Don't think Jeb will have trouble with those two guys anyway, though. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 05:55 on Jan 4, 2015 |
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Jan 4, 2015 05:49
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Huckabee and Rand do not draw from the same pool, I don't think Cruz does either but he's been around for so short a time that I honestly don't know. Likely he doesn't have much constituency at all and probably is not going to run.
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Jan 4, 2015 06:01
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Cliff Racer posted:Huckabee and Rand do not draw from the same pool, I don't think Cruz does either but he's been around for so short a time that I honestly don't know. Likely he doesn't have much constituency at all and probably is not going to run. I guarantee you Cruz is going to make a grab for it no matter how much it hurts and/or pisses off the rest of his party. The guy is a megalomaniac that acts like he deserves more power than he has. I figure he'll play the "maverick fighting for what's right at all costs" card and act like he's going up against the establishments of both parties to do what he knows in his gut is right. The Tea Party nut bags will eat it up but it's going to divide the GOP something fierce as Cruz tries (and fails horribly) to grab for the presidency and the rest of the GOP tries to put the genie back in the bottle.
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Jan 4, 2015 07:28
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Nintendo Kid posted:Surgeon Generals Safire turns in his grave
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Jan 4, 2015 08:24
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DynamicSloth posted:In a libertarian fever dream maybe. In the real world Clinton and Paul will have the exact same policy position on Marijuana. Neither will do anything about legalizing it nationally and neither are going to stop more states from legalizing it locally. Likely Colorado being a swing state will force the entire Republican (non-batshit) field to mumble some sort of states rights position. Nah, the base is still pretty anti-weed. Ron Paul can plead ideological purity, Rubio and Bush might waffle due to Medical Marijuana likely passing in Florida come 2016, and Ted Cruz might find that it's the most contrarily dickish position to take. Everyone else is going to go full Reefer Madness.
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Jan 4, 2015 09:03
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Gyges posted:Nah, the base is still pretty anti-weed. Ron Paul can plead ideological purity, Rubio and Bush might waffle due to Medical Marijuana likely passing in Florida come 2016, and Ted Cruz might find that it's the most contrarily dickish position to take. Everyone else is going to go full Reefer Madness. I suppose medical marijuana supporters in FL can count on a bump from 57% to 60% in a Presidential election year, but I'm sure Governor Skeletor and the Tea Party legislature will just demolish its effectiveness.
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Jan 4, 2015 09:09
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Cliff Racer posted:Huckabee and Rand do not draw from the same pool, I don't think Cruz does either but he's been around for so short a time that I honestly don't know. Likely he doesn't have much constituency at all and probably is not going to run. Way I see it Huckabee and Santorum would be fighting for the religious right, and Paul and Cruz for the Tea Party contingent, leaving Bush the standout moderate unless Romney commits.
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