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ErIog posted:
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Jan 6, 2015 02:43
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ErIog posted:Racist sentiment exists for sure, but you haven't demonstrated its connection to outcomes in the GOP primary process. If it was as strong as you say it is then shouldn't Pat Buchanan and David Duke have gotten the nominations? You don't think the GOP base has gotten more racist as time goes on? The 80s weren't some kind of high point for racism or anything. The dog whistles all still work. I don't think racism alone would be enough to derail the Christy campaign, but adding coal to that particular engine is his appointment of a muslim judge and the fact that he himself doesn't seem racist. If he isn't willing to blow all the dog whistles (benefit of the doubt he might have some integrity) he won't get in, and even if he is willing there is guaranteed to be somebody willing to do it louder.
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Jan 6, 2015 02:54
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Peztopiary posted:You don't think the GOP base has gotten more racist as time goes on? The 80s weren't some kind of high point for racism or anything. The dog whistles all still work. The GOP hasn't gotten more racist and the 80s weren't a high point, but the further back you go, the more blunt they were about it, and were on record using nomenclature that is straight offensive by today's standards. Lee Atwater's southern strategy video that gets posted here every day perfectly encapsulates this.
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Jan 6, 2015 02:57
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Peztopiary posted:You don't think the GOP base has gotten more racist as time goes on? The 80s weren't some kind of high point for racism or anything. The dog whistles all still work. I don't think racism alone would be enough to derail the Christy campaign, but adding coal to that particular engine is his appointment of a muslim judge and the fact that he himself doesn't seem racist. If he isn't willing to blow all the dog whistles (benefit of the doubt he might have some integrity) he won't get in, and even if he is willing there is guaranteed to be somebody willing to do it louder. Sure, racism might play an overall role, but I think he'll blow the standard Reagan Republican dog whistles with the best of them. It's unclear that blowing those dog whistles actually matters in the primary. Santorum did a better job at it than Romney, but Santorum came in second. This is because racism is one of their "principled stances" they indulge for a while in the primary that gets thrown out when they pull the lever for the candidate they think will beat the Democrat. Fulchrum posted:I repeat - the backlash against Charlie Crist for shaking the Presidents hand, and the subsequent replacement with Bat Boy. Yes, the photo of the pro-choice/pro-environmental regulation Republican sure was done in by that one time he shook the hand of a black guy. Nailed it.
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Jan 6, 2015 03:01
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Bernie Sanders hired progressive uber-blogger Matt Stoller and Professor Stephanie Kelton as his economic advisors for his new role as ranking member of the Budget Committee. They're both advocates of Modern Monetary Theory, which holds that deficits don't matter at the macro level if you can just keep printing cash. It's pretty clear we'll be seeing a Ryan-esque budget manifesto out of his office this spring as a possible campaign platform.
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Jan 6, 2015 04:21
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Joementum posted:Bernie Sanders hired progressive uber-blogger Matt Stoller and Professor Stephanie Kelton as his economic advisors for his new role as ranking member of the Budget Committee. They're both advocates of Modern Monetary Theory, which holds that deficits don't matter at the macro level if you can just keep printing cash. It's pretty clear we'll be seeing a Ryan-esque budget manifesto out of his office this spring as a possible campaign platform. Well, its true. Deficits don't matter so long as you have a stable political order and continue to make debt servicing obligations. Hell, the larger the deficit, the greater the economic growth, with inflation naturally balancing out your debt. This modern monetary theory, it sounds like poo poo up my alley.
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Jan 6, 2015 04:47
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My Imaginary GF posted:Well, its true. Deficits don't matter so long as you have a stable political order and continue to make debt servicing obligations. Hell, the larger the deficit, the greater the economic growth, with inflation naturally balancing out your debt. If more Democrats like the people you are posting as a caricature of actually paid attention to it then perhaps the Democrats could provide an alternate coherent economic vision to "like the way the Republicans manage it, but less bad". Edit: However good luck getting Democrats united on something like that without the ghost of LBJ sticking his nose in their faces. Jazerus fucked around with this message at 06:30 on Jan 6, 2015 |
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Jan 6, 2015 06:28
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Jazerus posted:If more Democrats like the people you are posting as a caricature of actually paid attention to it then perhaps the Democrats could provide an alternate coherent economic vision to "like the way the Republicans manage it, but less bad". Literally all Obama has been harping on for like 3 years now has been about raising the minimum wage and putting lots of money into rebuilding infrastructure. Yes, you can argue that he's only doing this because he doesn't have the means to, but to say that there's not an alternative plan proposed is absurd. (unless your definition of alternate is Literally Socialism)
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Jan 6, 2015 06:30
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ErIog posted:Yes, the photo of the pro-choice/pro-environmental regulation Republican sure was done in by that one time he shook the hand of a black guy. Nailed it. Actually, yes. Charlie Crist was on his way to a sweet office in the US Senate until he gladly accepted stimulus money. It was only then that Rubio was able to jump in and cry RINO in order to win the primary. Before Charlie Crist hugged Barack Obama he was unstoppable in Florida.
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Jan 6, 2015 06:35
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computer parts posted:Literally all Obama has been harping on for like 3 years now has been about raising the minimum wage and putting lots of money into rebuilding infrastructure. Yes, you can argue that he's only doing this because he doesn't have the means to, but to say that there's not an alternative plan proposed is absurd. Obama has been doing so and progressives in general have been doing so but there's not really a broad consensus (unless there were a Democratic majority in both houses, in which case their differences would be ironed out quickly on those issues) among Democratic politicians on those issues. Additionally, while those ideas are important and valuable and need to be implemented, they are not indicative of a different economic theory from the current mainstream, which is a worldview in which revenue and spending must be related and balanced and the government must remain relatively small and act through contractors and stimulus packages if interacting with the economy. These are artificial limitations which do not conform to the reality of the nature of sovereign debt, which is something that MMT explains particularly well.
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Jan 6, 2015 06:39
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Gyges posted:Actually, yes. Charlie Crist was on his way to a sweet office in the US Senate until he gladly accepted stimulus money. It was only then that Rubio was able to jump in and cry RINO in order to win the primary. Before Charlie Crist hugged Barack Obama he was unstoppable in Florida. The polling and the timeline doesn't quite back this up, though. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida,_2010#Polling Your initial assessment of him being "unstoppable" seems suspect considering he was only polling at 57% with almost nobody else in the race in January. Then his comments about the stimulus were in February of 2009, but it wasn't until 10 months after that Rubio caught up to him in the polls. He was also still above 50% in the GOP primary for 8 months after he commented about the stimulus. The stimulus may have been somewhat of a final straw in a lot of ways, but he was not well-liked by conservatives before that either. As a centrist Republican he was one of the first casualties of the Tea Party wave, and considering his other policy positions he would have been even if he hadn't supported the stimulus. Many other GOP politicians were drummed out for far less. Look at what happened to Cantor. It seems like it would have been pretty easy to see from his time in office that his support in that primary would be soft, and Rubio was a better-than-average candidate at taking advantage of that. That was also only a statewide primary, and not a national primary. Saying that Chris Christie would have something like that happen to him over Sandy stuff doesn't really seem applicable considering the two situations are completely different on their face and then we also have the more relevant data points of the 2008/2012 GOP primaries to look at. ErIog fucked around with this message at 07:24 on Jan 6, 2015 |
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Jan 6, 2015 07:05
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Jazerus posted:If more Democrats like the people you are posting as a caricature of actually paid attention to it then perhaps the Democrats could provide an alternate coherent economic vision to "like the way the Republicans manage it, but less bad". Unlimited deficit spending... ...on providing weapon systems to Israel. Change we can believe in. Unfortunately, not a position that Hillary or Christie would support. Jeb, though? I think we can trust Jeb to spend and spend without taxing.
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Jan 6, 2015 07:15
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ErIog posted:The polling and the timeline doesn't quite back this up, though. The state GOP turned on Crist after the "stimulus hug", he was dead to them at that point. If Crist hadn't gone on a vanity Independent run and instead backed Kendrick Meek with education as a major issue, there's a slim chance that Rubio might've lost that 2010 Senate seat.
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Jan 6, 2015 08:09
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skaboomizzy posted:The state GOP turned on Crist after the "stimulus hug", he was dead to them at that point. If Crist hadn't gone on a vanity Independent run and instead backed Kendrick Meek with education as a major issue, there's a slim chance that Rubio might've lost that 2010 Senate seat. That's the common folksy wisdom, but I haven't seen evidence that actually bears it out, though. I would appreciate if you found some and posted it. The polling I linked to before has Crist steady among primary voters for like 8 months after that hug.
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Jan 6, 2015 12:48
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Well, there's one former Republican governor who's definitely not running for president in 2016. http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2015/01/06/bob-mcdonnell-sentencing/21321365/ USA Today posted:RICHMOND, Va. — Former Virginia governor Bob McDonnell, who asked a judge Tuesday for mercy for his wife and himself, was sentenced to two years in federal prison for public corruption. Having lived in Virginia through his term, he was pretty milquetoast – basically trying not to rock the boat of public opinion too much since The Cooch could be the bad cop/culture warrior. So it's actually kind of depressing from a certain point of view to see a ruling like this. Not because I think he's a good guy or that he didn't do anything wrong, just that it sucks that we have other Republicans that are literal comic book villains making people's lives miserable for kicks and the best we can do is lock up one for a couple hundred grand in illicit gifts.
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Jan 7, 2015 01:58
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Your 2016 Republican nominee:quote:Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker will launch a new political organization in the coming weeks and has tapped a national political strategist to serve as his campaign manager should he decide to run for president, multiple GOP sources told CNN.
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Jan 7, 2015 21:24
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Unless it's!quote:Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who has been encouraged by his allies to consider another run for the White House, will meet with several of his former political advisers Wednesday in Menlo Park, Calif., for a private dinners.
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Jan 7, 2015 22:50
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It's going to be hilarious if so many of the moderate establishment Republicans jump in that Ted Cruz' lock on insanity is enough to catapult him to front runner status by virtue of the other factions diffusing their vote.
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Jan 7, 2015 23:54
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In which Scott Walker endorses collectivism.
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Jan 8, 2015 00:31
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Joementum posted:In which Scott Walker endorses collectivism. Late to the Christie stuff but him accepting gifts like football tickets from Jones is also problematic because Christie also helped give Jones' company a contract to operate the observation desk at the new one world trade. It's not really just about football loyalties though that is what south Jersey/Philly would have you believe. It's not a legal problem though because of reasons.
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Jan 8, 2015 01:12
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GOP people in my family were trying to tell me what a great shot Scott Walker has in the 2016 primary, and how he's single-handedly saving Wisconsin's economy. It was awesome to point out to them that Wisconsin was ranked 49th in job creation under Walker, and that he also has no college degree. They tried to play the college degree thing like, "well, that means he's a real person!" Usually politicians without college degrees have some kind of compelling narrative about going to the University of Highly Successful Private Sector Employment or their time in the military to point to. Scott Walker has neither. He dropped out of school, worked for IBM for a handful of years(marketing), and then has been a career politician since 1993. It's gonna be awesome to see the talk radio hosts who often bemoan "career politicians" start talking him up. The fact that Scott Walker thinks he can run tells me he has no idea how politics actually works. Scott Walker is useful to the moneyed interests in Wisconsin. He's worth exactly nil outside of Wisconsin because there's a dozen other buffoons from other states that are on that same gravy train, but on a national level. Scott Walker running would be hilarious, and I think he should do it. He might even put in a worse performance than Perry did last time, and end up having to bow out before Super Tuesday. ErIog fucked around with this message at 01:37 on Jan 8, 2015 |
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Jan 8, 2015 01:32
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The reason Rand isn't going to run is all the politicians in KY hate him and he can't defend his Senate seat if he does. He will announce he's not running in about Nov. Unless some republicans utter exploed
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Jan 8, 2015 02:10
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Fulchrum posted:That unskewing the poles ever got any traction suggests you're giving them too much credit. That was an argument from the base, Republican candidates (aside from Romney, who needed people to be optimistic) basically ignored it. The left did that same thing this year with Sam Wang. Admittedly there was more push back but at the same time the basic event was the same for both sides. Cliff Racer fucked around with this message at 03:02 on Jan 8, 2015 |
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Jan 8, 2015 02:54
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Fulchrum posted:I repeat - the backlash against Charlie Crist for shaking the Presidents hand, and the subsequent replacement with Bat Boy. Crist did not get dumped for Scott, he got dumped for Rubio. Remember, he opted out of running for a third term in order to run for senate instead. It was only after he lost that that he went independent. Cliff Racer fucked around with this message at 03:02 on Jan 8, 2015 |
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Jan 8, 2015 02:58
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sbaldrick posted:The reason Rand isn't going to run is all the politicians in KY hate him and he can't defend his Senate seat if he does. He will announce he's not running in about Nov. Unless some republicans utter exploed He can move to Texas and run for his dad's old seat.
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Jan 8, 2015 03:31
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Again I am stupid. How does it make sense to anyone inside Fortress Republican to put Mitt up for the nomination again? Is there some elaborate Mitt-as-kingmaker scenario they are going for where Mitt blesses the most Serious Man from within the Quiet Rooms? Or Mitt the Steadfast, whereby he acts as an establishment VP rudder to a firebrand Bootstraps candidate that wants to rid the USA of the tyranny of fire departments and medical services for the elderly. Because it cant possible be about running him as the actual presidential candidate again, can it?
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Jan 8, 2015 04:08
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It makes a lot of sense if you're someone like Lanhee Chen (the person Romney was meeting with today) who ran Romney's foreign policy shop during the campaign and was probably going to be named his Nat Sec Advisor in the administration.
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Jan 8, 2015 04:14
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Maybe Mitt just ran the numbers and figured out that he can have the best personal security force on the planet for 7 months with just a small 4m campaign-loan kickstarting outlay?
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Jan 8, 2015 04:17
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shadow puppet of a posted:Again I am stupid. How does it make sense to anyone inside Fortress Republican to put Mitt up for the nomination again? Is there some elaborate Mitt-as-kingmaker scenario they are going for where Mitt blesses the most Serious Man from within the Quiet Rooms? Or Mitt the Steadfast, whereby he acts as an establishment VP rudder to a firebrand Bootstraps candidate that wants to rid the USA of the tyranny of fire departments and medical services for the elderly. Unlike any of the other potential candidates Mitt already has access to more than enough money to run. Plus he's the only candidate with guaranteed no possibility of having unknown skeletons(Though I hear he once drank coffee before a swim meet.) coming to destroy everything. Which, given the field, is a significant leg up on everyone. Also nominee Mitt redux would be almost as hilarious as one of the more insane candidates winning, so I really want it to happen.
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Jan 8, 2015 05:28
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If Mitt runs again, I guarantee it won't be on his own dime.
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Jan 8, 2015 05:30
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Joementum posted:If Mitt runs again, I guarantee it won't be on his own dime. Of course he won't. But sitting on that pile of cash does at least give the illusion that it could happen, which makes a passable bluff.
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Jan 8, 2015 05:40
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Well I guess I should hope for Mitt to run as well at least as a signal to Cain and Gingrich that it is also their time once more.
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Jan 8, 2015 05:43
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Robert Costa: "According to an audience mbr. at Stanford today, Romney ducked a direct answer about his 2016 plans, and joked about ducking the question" Mitt 
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Jan 8, 2015 05:43
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2016 is really shaping up to be hilarious. If only the democratic primary looked as entertaining from here.
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Jan 8, 2015 05:57
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Donnt be so sure of that. We could be inches away from an insurgent Lamanga '16 upending the entire Democratic side as he threatened to do in '08 I've still got a heap of "Dal's got the pluck for it!" cafepress t-shirts ready pull out of storage once he declares.
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Jan 8, 2015 06:04
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eternalname posted:2016 is really shaping up to be hilarious. If only the democratic primary looked as entertaining from here. In his house at Microsoft, dead Mark Penn waits dreaming 
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Jan 8, 2015 06:06
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As fun as it is to laugh about Mark Penn, you guys do know that Lanny Davis sets up a table in the Capitol to hand out pro-Hillary brochures during Benghazi hearings, right?
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Jan 8, 2015 06:08
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Gyges posted:Unlike any of the other potential candidates Mitt already has access to more than enough money to run. Plus he's the only candidate with guaranteed no possibility of having unknown skeletons(Though I hear he once drank coffee before a swim meet.) coming to destroy everything. Which, given the field, is a significant leg up on everyone. I am genuinely looking forward to finding out if  has had a human behavior module upgrade since 2012. Has his small talk repertoire been expanded beyond the height of trees?
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Jan 8, 2015 06:55
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My favourite Mitt annecdote from the last election was his opening conversational gambit with constituents on the trail being: quote:When making small talk with locals, he peppers the conversation with curious details. (“We stayed in the Courtyard hotel last night,” he told a woman at a diner. “It’s a LEED-certified hotel.”) I cannot imagine how I'd personally react to being told that by anyone.
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Jan 8, 2015 06:57
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shadow puppet of a posted:My favourite Mitt annecdote from the last election was his opening conversational gambit with constituents on the trail being: Oooh, and a polite smile and nod. It's like the polite way to tell someone "Cool story bro."
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Jan 8, 2015 08:05
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