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Yeah, now those guys are saying the bus drove onto the minefield to avoid the Grad Strike.
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Jan 14, 2015 22:15
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It seems nuts to me that conspiracy theorists are so far down the rabbit hole that they'd look at a video like that and think it was some sort of false flag attack by Ukraine, orchestrated by the same brilliant military minds that brought you the Ilovaisk retreat.
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Jan 14, 2015 22:38
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I've made a version of the video where they show the bus minus the gory corpses inside the bus if anyone wants a trauma free way of look at the impact site https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16pUz8nVLR4
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Jan 14, 2015 22:51
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Bloomberg reports that Russia to use it's $88 billion "Reserve Fund" for currency stabilization along with the national bank reserves. FWIW oil seems to have recovered quite a bit today, which may help the Ruble as well.
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Jan 14, 2015 22:56
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OddObserver posted:Bloomberg reports that Russia to use it's $88 billion "Reserve Fund" for currency stabilization along with the national bank reserves. FWIW oil seems to have recovered quite a bit today, which may help the Ruble as well. Are you..joking? I'm seeing Brent still trading in the 48s right now - it needs to be probably twice that for Russia's economy to stabilize. I mean this entire downward spiral began when Brent hit what - 70? A slight recovery into the high-40s is not going to save the Ruble.
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Jan 14, 2015 23:02
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OddObserver posted:Bloomberg reports that Russia to use it's $88 billion "Reserve Fund" for currency stabilization along with the national bank reserves. FWIW oil seems to have recovered quite a bit today, which may help the Ruble as well. Assuming that the ruble is merely stabilized instead of recovering, how long will that reserve fund actually last?
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Jan 14, 2015 23:05
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Cuntpunch posted:Are you..joking? I'm seeing Brent still trading in the 48s right now - it needs to be probably twice that for Russia's economy to stabilize. I mean this entire downward spiral began when Brent hit what - 70? A slight recovery into the high-40s is not going to save the Ruble. Well, it's 48 up from 44 or something, no?
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Jan 14, 2015 23:07
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quote:Assuming that the ruble is merely stabilized instead of recovering, how long will that reserve fund actually last? Just enough time for the rich to transfer their money and families to Europe before everything collapses.
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Jan 14, 2015 23:08
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Brown Moses posted:I've made a version of the video where they show the bus minus the gory corpses inside the bus if anyone wants a trauma free way of look at the impact site Do you think this is going to result in more sanctions?
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Jan 14, 2015 23:12
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I was taking a look at some of the estimated casualty figures, and while there's a lot of uncertainty about the exact numbers the general range is still pretty shocking. Deaths in the thousands, plus countless more wounded and captured per side. Are these kinds of manpower losses sustainable? The Ukrainian military as an organization doesn't strike me as robust to high attrition, and while Russia has the obvious advantage on paper their need for "secrecy" gives them a self-imposed disadvantage. Then there's the separatists, who add a weird element to the whole thing. They're the least cohesive and weakest force on their own, but without them Russia doesn't have the necessary "cover" for their invasion. They need to be the ones to spearhead offensives to keep up the narrative of "liberating" Novorossiya, but they clearly don't have the capacity. Yet they can't be dislodged either since the Russian forces act as a backstop (as we saw the last time it seemed like separatist lines were going to completely crumble). Is there any sense that either army could break in the coming year, or can they really just keep fighting a permanent stalemate until someone's economy collapses? We keep seeing intense scenes of shelling and battles at various flashpoints but there's so little actual movement anymore, partly because of the Minsk protocols but partly because no one has the means to make any progress. If we're still reading about cyborgs holding Donetsk airport and random Grads blowing up buses of civilians after another year it's going to be a bit strange. I guess Syria's still burning away years later but as bad as Ukraine has it that's nothing compared to how devastated Syria is, and I'd like to hope the crisis will end before things get quite that bad.
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Jan 14, 2015 23:14
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Dusty Baker 2 posted:Do you think this is going to result in more sanctions?
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Jan 14, 2015 23:17
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Dusty Baker 2 posted:Do you think this is going to result in more sanctions? Why would it? No Western Europeans or North Americans have died in that bus. It didn't even make the news in many places.
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Jan 14, 2015 23:17
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Brown Moses posted:I've made a version of the video where they show the bus minus the gory corpses inside the bus if anyone wants a trauma free way of look at the impact site Dusty Baker 2 posted:Do you think this is going to result in more sanctions?
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Jan 14, 2015 23:21
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Dolash posted:I was taking a look at some of the estimated casualty figures, and while there's a lot of uncertainty about the exact numbers the general range is still pretty shocking. Deaths in the thousands, plus countless more wounded and captured per side. Are these kinds of manpower losses sustainable? The Ukrainian military as an organization doesn't strike me as robust to high attrition, and while Russia has the obvious advantage on paper their need for "secrecy" gives them a self-imposed disadvantage. Well Ukraine is set to have another couple of waves of Mobilization: http://sputniknews.com/military/20150113/1016859995.html, each wave is about 50,000 soldiers.
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Jan 14, 2015 23:22
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Dusty Baker 2 posted:Do you think this is going to result in more sanctions? Might get the separatists governments a "Terrorist Organizations" status in the EU: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/europe/europe/2015-01/15/c_127387606.htm
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Jan 14, 2015 23:25
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kalstrams posted:Uhm, I must have missed traumaful version. Can you link that one? Here it is, dead women and children with some nasty wounds from shrapnel. Dusty Baker 2 posted:Do you think this is going to result in more sanctions? Depends heavily if they can link it to attacks from Russia. I'm still working on the Bellingcat project on artillery attacks from Russia, but it's clear that has been happening, and we've already found video evidence of it supported by satellite map imagery.
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Jan 14, 2015 23:28
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OddObserver posted:Bloomberg reports that Russia to use it's $88 billion "Reserve Fund" for currency stabilization along with the national bank reserves. FWIW oil seems to have recovered quite a bit today, which may help the Ruble as well. I think the Ruble is going to stay depressed for a while, it may creep back into the 50s (if things go well) but a lot of capital has left Russia for good and I think it will take a while for trust to return. The question is if this is a true bottom for oil.
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Jan 14, 2015 23:35
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Brown Moses posted:Here it is, dead women and children with some nasty wounds from shrapnel.
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Jan 14, 2015 23:36
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Cocoa Ninja posted:It seems nuts to me that conspiracy theorists are so far down the rabbit hole that they'd look at a video like that and think it was some sort of false flag attack by Ukraine, orchestrated by the same brilliant military minds that brought you the Ilovaisk retreat. In both post-communist states and the middle east, where routine high level government incompetence and cruelty is the norm, there is widespread belief in conspiracy theories which rely on the assumption of extreme competence in certain elites. It seems like a huge contradiction but I feel like it's somehow causal. The more hosed up government has been in your lifetime, the more you believe someone somewhere in a government is an ultra genius acting 25 steps ahead of the game.
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Jan 14, 2015 23:39
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So my wife has put her foot down and is saying we are 100% going to Ukraine in September no matter what. The trouble is just in the east and kiev is totally safe and don't be such a coward because she NEEDS to visit her family every year or two. Is this a really bad idea? I keep saying that the country is an active war zone right now and things could spill over any time, it's way too unpredictable. And even if not a danger of being shot, there's a danger of being stuck in the country if there's an airport shutdown or no-fly zone or who the hell knows what might happen. Am I being paranoid or is she dismissing the risks?
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Jan 14, 2015 23:40
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Baronjutter posted:So my wife has put her foot down and is saying we are 100% going to Ukraine in September no matter what. The trouble is just in the east and kiev is totally safe and don't be such a coward because she NEEDS to visit her family every year or two. Is this a really bad idea? I keep saying that the country is an active war zone right now and things could spill over any time, it's way too unpredictable. And even if not a danger of being shot, there's a danger of being stuck in the country if there's an airport shutdown or no-fly zone or who the hell knows what might happen. Don't fly in Malaysia Airlines.
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Jan 14, 2015 23:42
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kalstrams posted:Thanks. Looks very strange. The OSCE just put out a statement saying the "bus had shrapnel damage consistent with a nearby rocket impact, estimated by the SMM to be 12-15 meters from the side of the bus." http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/134636 The hole that was left is consistent with other grad craters I've seen as well, as is the shrapnel damage.
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Jan 14, 2015 23:45
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Baronjutter posted:So my wife has put her foot down and is saying we are 100% going to Ukraine in September no matter what. The trouble is just in the east and kiev is totally safe and don't be such a coward because she NEEDS to visit her family every year or two. Is this a really bad idea? I keep saying that the country is an active war zone right now and things could spill over any time, it's way too unpredictable. And even if not a danger of being shot, there's a danger of being stuck in the country if there's an airport shutdown or no-fly zone or who the hell knows what might happen. If her family lives in Kiev and the West it should be okay (from what I heard, this isn't a solid yes), I think if anything happens it may simply be from economic disorder (protests, maybe heightened crime) rather than active combat. I can understand why your wife would want to see her family in a time such as this. If anything it might be a good idea to ask if they want (or gift it to them) high priced Western goods (iphones/laptops etc) because prices are going way up for them (especially if people are holding Hryvnia) and will likely continue to do so especially since another 10% import tax will be soon slapped on them. Ukrainian prices even before the tariff now are 20-30% over American prices. I don't know her family's economic situation obviously, but I have a feeling things may be rough for a while in Ukraine especially.
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Jan 14, 2015 23:47
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Best Friends posted:In both post-communist states and the middle east, where routine high level government incompetence and cruelty is the norm, there is widespread belief in conspiracy theories which rely on the assumption of extreme competence in certain elites. It seems like a huge contradiction but I feel like it's somehow causal. The more hosed up government has been in your lifetime, the more you believe someone somewhere in a government is an ultra genius acting 25 steps ahead of the game. A little while ago I heard of a book whose title perfectly summarized this Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible. I see the "nothing is true, everything is possible" ultra skeptic + conspiracy theorist combo frequently in Serbia.
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Jan 14, 2015 23:47
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Brown Moses posted:The OSCE just put out a statement saying the "bus had shrapnel damage consistent with a nearby rocket impact, estimated by the SMM to be 12-15 meters from the side of the bus."
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Jan 14, 2015 23:49
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Brown Moses posted:Here it is, dead women and children with some nasty wounds from shrapnel. I've seen a lot of artillery damage, and a lot of mine damage. That doesn't look like a mine at all.
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Jan 14, 2015 23:51
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Would it have been close enough to the impact site for concussive force to be a lethal factor?
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Jan 14, 2015 23:53
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kalstrams posted:Alright. It seemed underwhelming for nearby Grad hit, but I have not seen high resolution footage of single Grad hitting a location so my thoughts are based on crappy featurephone videos of Georgian war ear and older, where Grads never work alone and consequences are never shown up close. There is an another video that shows the actual grad strikes near that checkpoint --- they cover a large area, but mostly ended up just hitting fields. A couple of other vehicles actually had near misses. Edit:http://youtu.be/G7e0oyomwpw The bus is right back of the camera OddObserver fucked around with this message at 00:22 on Jan 15, 2015 |
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Jan 14, 2015 23:58
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Baronjutter posted:So my wife has put her foot down and is saying we are 100% going to Ukraine in September no matter what. The trouble is just in the east and kiev is totally safe and don't be such a coward because she NEEDS to visit her family every year or two. Is this a really bad idea? I keep saying that the country is an active war zone right now and things could spill over any time, it's way too unpredictable. And even if not a danger of being shot, there's a danger of being stuck in the country if there's an airport shutdown or no-fly zone or who the hell knows what might happen. Where in Ukraine? Kiev is perfectly fine unless Russia really invades. I've got family there, they're doing fine. Well, stay away from volunteer centers (the ones that are supporting the Ukrainian troops) maybe, there have been bombs going off near those lately.
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Jan 14, 2015 23:59
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Lithuania published a manual on how to survive a Russian attack. http://www.newsweek.com/lithuania-publishes-book-educating-citizens-how-respond-russian-invasion-297347 quote:Lithuania’s national defence minister Juozas Olekas unveiled a new public information book entitled ‘How to act in extreme situations or instances of war’ at a press conference on Tuesday evening, prompted by the threat of a Russian invasion, Baltic news service Delfi reports. HUGE PUBES A PLUS fucked around with this message at 00:13 on Jan 15, 2015 |
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Jan 15, 2015 00:05
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Baronjutter posted:So my wife has put her foot down and is saying we are 100% going to Ukraine in September no matter what. Yo dog, let's do a goonmeet. https://www.facebook.com/dorothypub?fref=pb&hc_location=friends_tab&pnref=friends.all
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Jan 15, 2015 00:07
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Honestly September's so far away from now that it's hard to say what the situation will be like by then. The whole war could be over, and in a number of different ways. If you were going tomorrow then Kyiv would probably be safe enough but give it nine months and they might be anointing Putin emperor on the city's rubble.
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Jan 15, 2015 00:17
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OddObserver posted:There is an another video that shows the actual grad strikes near that checkpoint --- they cover a large area, but mostly ended up just hitting fields. A couple of other vehicles actually had near misses. It's fairly poop quality and shows from afar. I have very bad ability to eyeball distances/elevations.
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Jan 15, 2015 00:39
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Last time we went to Kiev hungarian airlines went bankrupt like the day we were flying out, nearly trapping us there. Also it was a record cold snap that killed a few hundred people. Also my in-laws house wasn't actually finished despite the contractor's promises so I had to help finish their house out of desperation for somewhere private to sleep. I do not like to go to Ukraine. I love my in-laws and grand-in-laws though. We will certainly try to bring them things they need. We sent them a bunch of clothing twice but both packages got "lost" in the mail  Grandparents live right downtown in Kiev near the main square, in-laws live about 30 min north in a little suburb/village with their own newly built house and a car. Everything's gas though for heat and cooking, but they have a wood stove at least. Kiev gets fairly reliable electricity but the village now has the power off about 50% of the time on a schedule. Have they fixed that loving reactor turbine yet?
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Jan 15, 2015 01:30
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Baronjutter posted:Last time we went to Kiev hungarian airlines went bankrupt like the day we were flying out, nearly trapping us there. Also it was a record cold snap that killed a few hundred people. Also my in-laws house wasn't actually finished despite the contractor's promises so I had to help finish their house out of desperation for somewhere private to sleep. I do not like to go to Ukraine. I love my in-laws and grand-in-laws though. The levels of general corruption aren't quite comparable, but one thing my girlfriend has had success with in shipping gifts and such back to Poland is to actually wrap the packages in paper so that any so tampering is immediately obvious. She does it out of a general paranoia about the postal service over there, but so far it seems to have worked and nothing has gone missing. Might give it a try.
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Jan 15, 2015 01:57
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Baronjutter posted:Last time we went to Kiev hungarian airlines went bankrupt like the day we were flying out, nearly trapping us there. Also it was a record cold snap that killed a few hundred people. Also my in-laws house wasn't actually finished despite the contractor's promises so I had to help finish their house out of desperation for somewhere private to sleep. I do not like to go to Ukraine. I love my in-laws and grand-in-laws though. That sounds like some bad luck, unfortunately it is going to remain rather unpredictable especially the effects major financial events (default/hyperinflation) which may or may not happen . Unfortunately, yeah I wouldn't trust the regular mail and if you are taking higher value gifts, I would put them on your carry on (just saying). As for the Zaporizhia plant since there was second incident about 2 weeks ago and I guess there is a debate in the Russian press is there was a radioactive leak. I would be interested if anyone had some less political charged and more recent info. However, as others have said, everything is so unpredictable, it is unclear what Ukraine is going to look like 9 months from now. I guess you can plan, but I don't know about buying non-refundable tickets.
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Jan 15, 2015 02:04
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Smerdyakov posted:Maybe it's a side effect of being too familiar with the wacky funhouse hall of mirrors Russian domestic politics, but I can practically loving guarantee no one on RT or any of the other propaganda organs of the Russian state have ever said (in english) that "the Ukrainian language doesn't exist." Nor has anyone on RT et. al said "fascism's not such a bad thing" except to be shouted down. Now, these things are said all the goddamn time inside of Russia in a number of oblique and explicit ways, but I don't think an english-speaking audience has ever heard these things. Again, Zhirinovsky says poo poo like that every day, but he's never been on/ been covered by RT for that exact reason. Someone like him who embodies all the contradictions/conspiracies in Russian beliefs would transparently appear as a complete loving lunatic to the larger world. Also, he once ordered his bodyguards to rape a pregnant journalist on live TV, which kinda kills your chances for a sympathetic hearing of your views in the west. But consider this recent interview with Hanne Nabintu Herland done on RT's "Worlds Apart" program- It's worth watching at least the 12 minutes up until the first break. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7k0OHYpW5A Lots of Spenglerian bullshit. For her part Miss Boyko is very accommodating. Also worth mentioning is Paul Craigs Roberts, former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Reagan, and frequent contributer/guest on RT. Usually he's introduced as a former member of the Reagan administration- so far hosts have always neglected to mention that, until recently, PCR was a long time contributor to VDARE, as well as other white nationalist publications. You''ll remember back during the Crimean referendum, politicians from around Europe were invited to observe the voting- note the names and the parties they belong to. http://rt.com/news/international-observers-crimea-referendum-190/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SpZMKdCjY4U I'm sure others can provide more examples. So, you're correct in saying "Fascist" is rightfully used as a pejorative on RT. But by presenting people like those I mentioned as innocuous political commentators, they are also legitimizing and empowering the extreme right- fascism's intellectual heirs. Hence the contradiction. edit: sp Dilkington fucked around with this message at 02:30 on Jan 15, 2015 |
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Jan 15, 2015 02:10
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  Graham Phillips.http://i.imgur.com/t5rQdOg.jpg Edit: Somaen posted:Russia is refusing to give up the soldier for the same reason it refused to give up the guy who probably poisoned Litvinenko to Britain. Armenians are not happy about this. At the Russian base:          Edit3: Purported trophies of "cyborgs". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dE4FZm8dLxk Edit2: hosed up with nms/nws stuff as noted below. cinci zoo sniper fucked around with this message at 03:59 on Jan 15, 2015 |
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Jan 15, 2015 03:41
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kal, you might want to edit that Graham Phillips tweet for the Youtube thumbnail.
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Jan 15, 2015 03:54
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Young Freud posted:kal, you might want to edit that Graham Phillips tweet for the Youtube thumbnail.
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Jan 15, 2015 04:00
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