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With the impending import price hikes I'm guessing now is the perfect time to buy big ticket goods, as long as you're pretty sure you aren't going to be losing your job between now end of fiscal.
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Jan 14, 2015 14:50
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The cad is 80 cents this morning. lmao
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Jan 14, 2015 16:39
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10 year bond is at record low since 2009 or something. RBC is now offering 10 year fixed mortgage at 3.99%
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Jan 14, 2015 16:44
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quote:
https://twitter.com/amberkanwar/status/555375926700437504?s=09
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Jan 14, 2015 16:50
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Sounds like I need to stock up on model trains now. Also I post a lot of hilarious stuff from the condo "booster" and general housing bulls on the Victoria/South Island real-estate and development forums I go to. It's supposed to be a normal cross section of the population but it seems to really skew right-libertarian. Maybe I'm just naive and haven't interacted with that sort of folk enough, but nearly everyone on the site will throw out "socialist" as a catch-all pejorative for any sort of politics or policy they don't like. If a centre-right politician announces they're spending tax money on basically anything other than highway infrastructure or a tax cut/incentive to a condo developer it's socialism. The weird thing is they seem to genuinely believe it. They won't just toss the word out there as a meaningless insult, they'll actually go into depth as to why the policy comes from socialist ideology and why it represents dangerous "social engineering" and "spending other people's money". -Anything to do with bike or pedestrian infrastructure is socialism, cars are the preferred method of transport so any spending on anything other than car stuff is going against the market. Government spending other people's money on things they don't want in an effort to get them to change their lifestyle is socialism. -Anything to do with the environment or "climate change" (usually always in quotes) is socialism. Climate change may or may not be happening but if it is the market would respond to it, and we in Canada will benefit anyways and climate change will probably be good for Victoria and it's housing market anyways. Also Victoria is a city, how can it tackle climate change all by its self? Thus any policy about emissions or energy use is socialism because it's attempting controlling people's behavior and spend their money (tax is theft) on things they don't want. -Not approving every single condo tower anywhere and everywhere in the city is socialism because socialists are stupid idiots who don't believe in market economies or supply and demand. Socialists think we have an affordability problem (high housing prices are something to be proud of, poor people need to move to cities where their poor-person skills are in demand) but restricting supply of high end luxury condos won't do anything to help affordability. -Any sort of design review or architectural standards for buildings is socialism because it's basically a politburo censoring art like in the soviet union (which killed a TON of people). -All housing bears are socialists because why would anyone want a housing crash?? Only people who emotionally hate other people's success and don't have any equity them selves would be so petty as to cheer for a housing crash, and those people are socialists. -Any sort of hint of caring about first nations issues is socialism because white guilt is an invention of socialists as are any sort of class/race issues. It's the government that hurt first nations in canada so the solution is zero government intervention, not more oppressive socialism. Also residential schools and basically everything the first nations went through were all products of socialism because it was the government trying to control people and force people to do things and take away their property rights. Things that 100% are NOT socialism: Tough on crime police spending. We need to spend more money on the police, we need to round up those homeless people they are hurting business!!! Roads and highways, the market has spoken and we love driving, spending on roads is respecting the will of the people. Tax breaks for developers and business. A wise investment in the economy. Stadiums or anything to do with sports because did you know Victoria used to have an NHL team if only we'd spent more on our stadium maybe our city could afford some sort of pro-sports team and then we'd be on the map and the cash would come raining down!!!
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Jan 14, 2015 16:54
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Cultural Imperial posted:Yo if you guys are really interested in oil, check this poo poo out: I've seen a lot of the opposite reported in the news actually - traders are looking to store oil. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/12/us-oil-tanks-analysis-idUSKBN0KL0AZ20150112 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-13/oil-storage-is-king-as-commodity-traders-exploit-crash-in-crude.html
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Jan 14, 2015 17:00
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I was totally wrong about Victoria. We must exterminate that blight off the face of the earth. After Vancouver though.
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Jan 14, 2015 17:11
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Cultural Imperial posted:I was totally wrong about Victoria. We must exterminate that blight off the face of the earth. After Vancouver though. What about Edmonton? Land of the humble blue collar worker and seat of power in the "great" province of Alberta.
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Jan 14, 2015 17:12
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Cultural Imperial posted:I was totally wrong about Victoria. We must exterminate that blight off the face of the earth. After Vancouver though. Nah that forum is just a magnet for the like 100 libertarians who fantasize about skyscrapers being rammed up their butts by a strong willed developer father figure.
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Jan 14, 2015 17:58
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Oil slump to boost Toronto home prices u guysquote:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil..._medium=twitter
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Jan 14, 2015 18:18
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Baronjutter posted:Nah that forum is just a magnet for the like 100 libertarians who fantasize about skyscrapers being rammed up their butts by a strong willed developer father figure. What does libertarian even mean in a Victoria context, anyway? Probably any opinion to the right of the means of granola production shouldn't necessarily be collectively owned I would imagine 
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Jan 14, 2015 19:21
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Hal_2005 posted:Oh, and I should mention, a good follow up to this thread would be someone to research the windfall carbon tax Obama is thinking of making mandatory for all NAFTA; since clearly you all are not spending your new found wealth fast enough on the new found savings from cheap gasoline fast enough on US consumer poo poo at Target. This is 100% serious, sadly. 
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Jan 14, 2015 19:34
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Cultural Imperial posted:The cad is 80 cents this morning. lmao It's over 83 still, don't get me excited like that
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Jan 14, 2015 19:56
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blah_blah posted:It's over 83 still, don't get me excited like that I just did a quick conversion of my investments. I've lost a shuttled of money in the past couple days but because it's all in us dollars I'm up higher than ever. Burn this motherfucker to the ground
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Jan 14, 2015 20:06
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Lexicon posted:What does libertarian even mean in a Victoria context, anyway? Probably any opinion to the right of the means of granola production shouldn't necessarily be collectively owned I would imagine Nah, full on all tax is theft unless spent on police and roads and even that would be ideally privatized and paid for by a gold backed currency or bitcoins. Anyone against pipelines are economic terrorists who should be sent to camps. Anyone who supports "first nations" rights but isn't giving their house and their land over is a hypocrite. Full on reactionary right/libertarian. Global warming is a plot by socialists and statists to control the economy and consumer habits which are sacred and should never be influenced but all marketing is awesome and buyer beware. A few are big into Illuminati and HARP stuff too but don't post about it on the site anymore because it might scare away all the big important developers and local business they want to buddy buddy with to get work from. They are all super super housing bulls and have great faith in Harper's economic action plan keeping the economy going great if it's not sabotaged by socialists and parasites. They pretty much ran anyone who isn't a housing bull off the site, specially the ones that actually had facts and figures because it was upsetting the realtors and condo PR team people who post there. A few people who actually had good info on why a condo's weird financing system was a huge red flag and a bad pre-sale investment got banned for spreading too much negative speculation and slandering our fine development industry. That condo of course later went bankrupt and turned out to be a huge scam. Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 20:26 on Jan 14, 2015 |
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Jan 14, 2015 20:22
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Kafka Esq. posted:haha, you're so full of poo poo. The president is going to alter a treaty by himself, is he? You couldn't tell from this? Hal_2005 posted:and the market moves back into normal backwardation, where supply takes care of itself, and normal cost producers are given their true, time value adjusted rate of return (100% of the profits and a full value capture; much to the bitter salty tears of traders and socialists everywhere). Hint: Traditional socialist logic is that we need wealth transfer because labor (normal cost producers) are being screwed by capitol (Traders, managers, and middlemen).
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Jan 14, 2015 20:38
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golden bubble posted:You couldn't tell from this?
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Jan 14, 2015 20:45
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As for the Norway fund, there's only one problem I can think of for it. The Norway Sovereign fund is supposed to cover government deficits in emergencies, so if the general Norwegian economy collapses, the fund might get spent trying to prop it up. The actual asset allocation looks fairly good. Only 5% of the fund is real estate, and the rest of it appears to be well diversified across many markets and countries. If Hal actually has some info indicating otherwise, I'd be interested in hearing it. But the fund appears as safe as an investment fund could be.
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Jan 14, 2015 21:08
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Whoa what the gently caress just happened to oil
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Jan 14, 2015 21:19
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Cultural Imperial posted:Whoa what the gently caress just happened to oil what do you mean?
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Jan 14, 2015 21:24
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Bilirubin posted:what do you mean? Wti is up 4.5%
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Jan 14, 2015 21:29
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Bilirubin posted:what do you mean?
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Jan 14, 2015 21:38
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By looking at the Nasdaq it just seems like a temporary raise, we'll know for sure tomorrow probably.
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Jan 14, 2015 22:17
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Lexicon posted:If the Saudis wield so much power in the oil market, and have the ability to price out the oil sands and shale operations - why wait till late 2014 and not nip it in the bud way sooner? Saudis really don't have any power given the failure of OPEC and it's not like they welcomed the oil price crash. Starving out small/mid cap western energy companies is just the silver lining. golden bubble posted:As for the Norway fund, there's only one problem I can think of for it. The Norway Sovereign fund is supposed to cover government deficits in emergencies, so if the general Norwegian economy collapses, the fund might get spent trying to prop it up. The actual asset allocation looks fairly good. Only 5% of the fund is real estate, and the rest of it appears to be well diversified across many markets and countries. If Hal actually has some info indicating otherwise, I'd be interested in hearing it. But the fund appears as safe as an investment fund could be. On a side note it's pretty smart what Norway did with their oil money, instead of letting it create dutch disease they just quarantined it from the local economy via a big sovereign fund. etalian fucked around with this message at 00:09 on Jan 15, 2015 |
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Jan 15, 2015 00:07
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blah_blah posted:It's over 83 still, don't get me excited like that It's not the Canadian dollar falling off a cliff, it's investors running to the USD. The CAD is virtually unchanged vs GBP, JPY, AUD, or any other currency that matters. What currency is falling off a cliff compared to the USD *and* everything else? The Ruble.
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Jan 15, 2015 01:06
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ductonius posted:It's not the Canadian dollar falling off a cliff, it's investors running to the USD. The CAD is virtually unchanged vs GBP, JPY, AUD, or any other currency that matters. Canada still not as bad as Russia....
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Jan 15, 2015 01:40
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LemonDrizzle posted:Got any more information on that? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-08/norway-on-alert-as-oil-losses-have-government-exploring-options.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-07/hayman-s-bass-says-oil-plunge-will-discipline-petro-state-norway.html Basically do a cash reconcilation to their current entitlement programs, which is on their website, and now figure out what a -30% cut in the euro based revenues are. The picture is pretty well reflected in the NOK bond yields and swap market, which is the country will run out of money right around the time of 2017 at 44-47/bbl oil. Which, is rough about where we are trading at, give or take and will continue to do so for a few years until someone blows up.
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Jan 15, 2015 03:36
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Two links that don't say anything like what you said, followed by a paragraph of gibberish, finished off with a ludicrously specific prediction ("Oil will trade at 44-47/bbl for a few years"). Hal_2005 everybody, he'll be here all night or until someone makes him take his meds.
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Jan 15, 2015 03:53
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Guy DeBorgore posted:Two links that don't say anything like what you said, followed by a paragraph of gibberish, finished off with a ludicrously specific prediction ("Oil will trade at 44-47/bbl for a few years"). Hal_2005 everybody, he'll be here all night or until someone makes him take his meds. I'm sorry, are you reading the same thing I did ? Or are you too stupid to read a financial trade journal article, but not dumb enough yet to delete your post ? Which is it. I'll back up a few steps: The Norwegian government constructed a 860 billion dollar investment fund, which like the Canada Pension Plan or OTTP goes out and invests in assets to generate a cash flow to offset the entitlement spending of the Norwegian people. On average, the fund is supposed to be a positive, self sustaining vehicle which will never be drawn upon. Kind of like the IMF's SDR or Russia's national resource fund, which they will likely start drawing on starting this week to prevent a currency route. Now if you read the second article, you would notice a bond manager, noticed that Norway changed the rules, and while their blond & blue eyed citizens think the fund is self sustaining, they are actually drawing about 21 billion out of the fund to cover shortfalls in their government programs. Because what was once oil revenues which were being collected either by Statoil dividends or as royalty payments suddenly do not make enough to cover their cash shortfall. So, if you take 21 billion, and you run rate that, assuming the hole in the tax base or revenues does not accelerate, (it will) then we can assume Norway will either suffer a credit rating downgrade since their net worth is decreasing, largely due to their large sov. fund and thus will need to devalue their currency or prevent capital from leaving by increasing the scarcity of currency to speculate on (why bankers tend to hike rates, when they don't see or like inflation happening on their watch). Let me know if im going too fast for you. Now, if we know their currency is struggling to maintain purchasing power, and the only way to keep up its purchasing power is shrink the amount of currency in circulation, then everything NOT oil will go up in cost both to make, and will become less competitive with all exports to europe, which can't afford much Norwegian poo poo like Yara fertilizer or other dutchy crap as it is. So, you can now read the second article where the Norwegian government straight up admits, that yes: this is a really big loving problem. And while they attempted to diversify their investments into everything NOT oil, they will likely not have enough reserves of currency to cope with the large layoffs or new unemployed workers who will further increase their entitlement cash burn rate. Thankfully Guy, while you may think I am a lunatic, I know you Are a loving idiot who I can only speculate (see what I did there?) is too autistic to even qualify to make the statements I made. And that makes me feel better about any other comments you may post in follow up or any other google crap you can rebuttal, because if this was wrong, then we would see the foreign exchange rate for Norway be inverting like the Swiss or US dollar. To be nice, and skirt a ban I'll turn the argument on its head. If you think Norway is a shining example of diversified petrostate communism, please explain to me how their bond yields are convexing and their currency is down 20% since the OPEC announcement. Next reconcile that with your worldly knowledge of their consumer confidence rates. All that information is found on bloomberg's retail website, so I assume you know how to google and get back to me/ or the thread.
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Jan 15, 2015 04:28
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Basically any country that's been enjoying the oil boom honey money whether it's Norway or Russa will get badly screwed over the next few years.
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Jan 15, 2015 04:34
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Hal_2005 posted:science
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Jan 15, 2015 04:40
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That was a very clear and well-put explanation, I'll admit I haven't been giving you nearly enough credit. And vice-versa, I'm well aware the falling oil price will hurt Norway economically and force them to cut back on government spending, undergo a painful and slow deflation, draw down on their sovereign wealth fund, or some combination of all that. You said, specifically, that the fund was in danger of "going bust," i.e. wiped out, and it's nowhere near that point. Drawing $21b from $860b is only 2%, I think even a fund that size could return enough to beat 2% + inflation. I agree they'll likely have to dip into far more than that in the coming years but there's no chance of them running through the whole thing anytime soon.
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Jan 15, 2015 04:55
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Hal_2005 is Kyoon meets Zero Hedge in the best possible way The brilliance of Norway, similar the Saudi royal family is how they took oil money and transformed into a well diversified investment. etalian fucked around with this message at 05:02 on Jan 15, 2015 |
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Jan 15, 2015 05:00
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How bad are things going to get in Norway that they'll burn through $860B in 3 years of $45/bbl oil prices, exactly? Bonus question: what does this have to do with the Canadian housing bubble anymore?
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Jan 15, 2015 05:07
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news..._medium=twitterquote:The mayor of Vancouver is crediting the city’s economic strategy for record-high building permit values of $2.8-billion.  yes cheap debt has nothing to do with this stfu mayor moonbean
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Jan 15, 2015 06:55
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I thought children's hospitals were really bad for property values though...
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Jan 15, 2015 07:22
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Australia Wins Gold at the house price olympics:  
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Jan 15, 2015 10:51
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Jumpingmanjim posted:Australia Wins Gold at the house price olympics: We demand representation! 
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Jan 15, 2015 11:02
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Yup that German graph is us alright. If it wasn't for Munich it would be flat.
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Jan 15, 2015 11:19
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Jumpingmanjim posted:graphs What is Germany doing differently than say Canada or Australia?
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Jan 15, 2015 13:02
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