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Joementum posted:And now Harris is in. If she clears the field early it'll be really good for the CA Democrats. If there's a tough-fought primary, CA's idiotic top two system could cause issues. Goodwin Liu is probably pretty thrilled with this news.
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Jan 13, 2015 02:19
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:Ah, sweet. I'm wondering who'll run for governor in 2018 though (and I hope it's just her in the field, given how our primary system works). If Harris runs for Senate (and wins, which is probable but hardly certain), it's Gavin. It's very likely they discussed this and divvied it up so that Harris gets Senate, Gavin gets Governor. Gavin's been the heir apparent for governor for a while, and would be governor right now if Brown hadn't resurrected himself.
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Jan 13, 2015 02:28
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:Ah, sweet. I'm wondering who'll run for governor in 2018 though (and I hope it's just her in the field, given how our primary system works). Gavin Newsom has been fighting for the governorship since about as long as I can remember. His statement saying he won't run for Senator because he wants to focus on California and not Washington D.C. suggests we should gear up for another run for governor from him.
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Jan 13, 2015 02:31
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Why does California have a top-two primary thing anyways? What's the point?
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Jan 13, 2015 02:33
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:Ah, sweet. I'm wondering who'll run for governor in 2018 though (and I hope it's just her in the field, given how our primary system works). It's going to be Newsom if Brown is dead or not running again.
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Jan 13, 2015 02:35
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kurona_bright posted:Why does California have a top-two primary thing anyways? What's the point? So that there's actual competitiveness in elections that would otherwise just be no-hope Republican forced to run against some incumbent Democrat and vice versa for other areas of the state.
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Jan 13, 2015 02:39
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Raskolnikov38 posted:It's going to be Newsom if Brown is dead or not running again. Brown can't run again, there's a two term limit in place. Brown's previous two terms were before it was enacted, so he was exempt, but unless the term limits are repealed Jerry Brown won't be governor again.
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Jan 13, 2015 02:42
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kurona_bright posted:Why does California have a top-two primary thing anyways? What's the point? Back when the state senate wasn't dominated by Republicans and Dems couldn't pass a budget without 60% support (budgets that don't raise taxes can be passed with a simple majority now), the Dems needed one more Republican to pass the budget. That Republican was Abel Maldonado, and he did so under the condition that the legislature introduces a ballot initiative to turn California's primary system into the mess we have now. Californians thought it was a good idea for various reasons and it passed. In fairness to Maldonado, he wasn't just being an rear end in a top hat (he was a very moderate Republican) and his intentions were in the right place (in his mind, making elections more fair), but the execution was bad. Bizarro Watt has issued a correction as of 03:11 on Jan 13, 2015 |
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Jan 13, 2015 03:09
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Joementum posted:Something tells me the CA TV networks are going to find out exactly how much that's worth. Something tells me its worth a lot more than what you think it is for a post as big as CA senator.
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Jan 13, 2015 04:23
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Cliff Racer posted:Something tells me its worth a lot more than what you think it is for a post as big as CA senator. Yes I am sure the billionaire will struggle to get their names out.
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Jan 13, 2015 09:24
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Joementum posted:Gavin's out, leaving Harris, Villarigosa, and Steyer to fight it out for the CA Senate seat.
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Jan 13, 2015 09:28
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what's the problem with the jungle primary?
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Jan 13, 2015 15:04
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Voyager I posted:Yes I am sure the billionaire will struggle to get their names out. Yeah I'm sure he has some sort of very populous constituency that isn't already filled by another, better candidate. People aren't going to go "who is that?" when Kamala Harris announces she's running and she isn't going to have trouble raising money either. Neither are a bunch of other Democrats and probably at least one credible Republican. Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman couldn't spend their way to victory in 2010, Ro Khanna couldn't spend his way to victory in 2014. Why should we believe it is any different here.
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Jan 13, 2015 15:45
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WhiskeyJuvenile posted:what's the problem with the jungle primary? There was a Forum segment on it a few months ago. I forget the specifics, but the gist seems to be that it hasn't actually helped any third parties yet, and there is at least one case in Southern California where a new, left-leaning district ended up with two Republicans on the ballot because the Democrats split their votes four ways. I'm going off memory, but my impression was that it's another one of those things that sounds like a good idea but actually turns out to be pretty stupid.
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Jan 13, 2015 16:27
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WhiskeyJuvenile posted:what's the problem with the jungle primary? A 60-40 district where the 60% party has four competitive candidates and the 40% has two.
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Jan 13, 2015 17:08
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Yes, the jungle primary creates perverse incentives for candidates and voters in primary elections and doesn't accomplish either of its purported goals of making third parties and intra-party fringe candidates more competitive. Here's a tip: don't look to Louisiana for ideas on electoral reform.
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Jan 13, 2015 17:28
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Louisiana is a perfect source of ideas. Anyone you see proposing them should be shot into the sun, allowing for the better ideas to come forth.
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Jan 13, 2015 17:31
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Cliff Racer posted:Yeah I'm sure he has some sort of very populous constituency that isn't already filled by another, better candidate. People aren't going to go "who is that?" when Kamala Harris announces she's running and she isn't going to have trouble raising money either. Neither are a bunch of other Democrats and probably at least one credible Republican. Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman couldn't spend their way to victory in 2010, Ro Khanna couldn't spend his way to victory in 2014. Why should we believe it is any different here. He has the all important "D" next to his name.
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Jan 13, 2015 20:26
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Cliff Racer posted:Yeah I'm sure he has some sort of very populous constituency that isn't already filled by another, better candidate. Steyer, the single biggest donor to Democrats, has made climate change his issue. If he runs, it will be with that as an agenda and focus for the campaign. Meanwhile, Loretta Sanchez has also declared for the CA Senate race. She currently represents the 46th Congressional District (Anaheim).
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Jan 13, 2015 20:48
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Joementum posted:Here's a tip: don't look to Louisiana for ideas on electoral reform. Imagine how much funnier the Cochran McDaniel poo poo show could have been as a Jungle election.
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Jan 14, 2015 01:06
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:He has the all important "D" next to his name. Yeah he does, and so will a shitload of his opponents in the primary and, if he makes it there, probably one in the general as well.
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Jan 14, 2015 02:17
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Cory Booker is a Kamala Harris fan.
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Jan 14, 2015 02:25
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kurona_bright posted:Why does California have a top-two primary thing anyways? What's the point? Independents and populists like it, so it does well in the initiative system. Kobayashi posted:and there is at least one case in Southern California where a new, left-leaning district ended up with two Republicans on the ballot because the Democrats split their votes four ways. Mine. Course corrected in 2014, though. But it almost happened again. Four Democrats and two Republicans in the primary, the top Democrat just barely won 2nd place. Lycus has issued a correction as of 02:27 on Jan 14, 2015 |
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Jan 14, 2015 02:25
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California also has the top-two system because a previous open primary system ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blanket_primary ) was ruled unconstitutional for potentially forcing political parties to endorse a candidate they didn't want, back in 2000. So the new, constitutionally-kosher system was supported partly based on the popularity of the old "blanket primary" system.
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Jan 14, 2015 02:28
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So take this anecdote for what it's worth (quite possibly nothing) but I met a fairly politically informed American traveller who shares a hairdresser (I know, I know) with Russ Feingold, who said he is definitely running. Just another hint that D&D's second favourite senator might be making a comeback.
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Jan 19, 2015 11:13
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Tammy Duckworth says she is a few weeks away from making a decision to challenge Mark Kirk and I would be shocked if she decides not to. http://atr.rollcall.com/tammy-duckworth-senate-bid-illinois-201/
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Jan 19, 2015 22:55
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Rygar201 posted:Imagine how much funnier the Cochran McDaniel poo poo show could have been as a Jungle election. That plausibly could have ended with US Senator Travis Childers. We can only imagine the new and strange directions this chart would have taken. 
oldswitcheroo has issued a correction as of 00:37 on Jan 20, 2015 |
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Jan 20, 2015 00:34
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How different would our politics look had David Duke won his senate election in 1990—as in, if black Louisianans didn't turn out en masse to vote against him.
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Jan 20, 2015 00:39
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I think it's great Kyoon's getting work as a graphics designer. It explains how he's able to afford the recent re-regs.
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Jan 20, 2015 02:20
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Looks like Twitter superstar Chuck Grassley is going to be running for re-election for sure. Guess we can cross Iowa off the "possible D pickups" list.
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Jan 21, 2015 23:27
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Assume seat pickup dead.
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Jan 22, 2015 02:51
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Wrong thread. My bad. But yeah the Democrats didn't exactly inspire my faith in there ability to get out the vote in the weeks prior to the November midterm. It was like making the arrangements for a funeral. So defeatist. Their timing to take a turn to the left couldn't be worse either. This is a pretty great article on the matter: http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/pat-garofalo/2015/01/15/are-dems-trolling-the-left-with-paid-sick-leave-transactions-tax-push dorkasaurus_rex has issued a correction as of 14:46 on Jan 22, 2015 |
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Jan 22, 2015 14:42
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dorkasaurus_rex posted:Wrong thread. My bad. But yeah the Democrats didn't exactly inspire my faith in there ability to get out the vote in the weeks prior to the November midterm. It was like making the arrangements for a funeral. So defeatist. This guy misses that the Democrats couldn't pass any of this stuff in 2013 either. The sticking point is the House, if you can get any of this stuff past a Republican House it's getting through the Senate even if the Democrats have lost the Senate (because hell has frozen over).
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Jan 22, 2015 15:10
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Steyer's out. The likelihood of Senator Harris happening is rapidly approaching 100%.
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Jan 22, 2015 21:49
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Hey maybe Steyer will get lucky and Feinstein will keel over before the election, he can't be worse than her.
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Jan 22, 2015 22:00
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Joementum posted:Steyer's out. The likelihood of Senator Harris happening is rapidly approaching 100%. I still think that there's a good probability she doesn't just walk to the nom. Villaraigosa should have a number of strong constituencies to draw from and its possible that, should he run, he and a Republican grab slots 1 and 2 in the primary. If I were him I'd go for it too. The Newsom/Harris deal looks set to eat up Cali's top slots for another decade and if these other candidates want a position they had might as well seek it now.
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Jan 23, 2015 01:28
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Cliff Racer posted:The Newsom/Harris deal looks set to eat up Cali's top slots for another decade and if these other candidates want a position they had might as well seek it now. I don't disagree that Villarigosa would be a formidable primary candidate, but Diane Feinstein is 81, currently....
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Jan 23, 2015 01:31
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Joementum posted:I don't disagree that Villarigosa would be a formidable primary candidate, but Diane Feinstein is 81, currently.... Yeah but she's in relatively good health for her age.
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Jan 23, 2015 02:03
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I don't care how good her health is, she needs to go for a lot of reasons, preferably by retiring because that makes it easier. I had actually hoped Steyer's interest was in order to raise his profile and gain experience in campaigning before going for Feinstein's seat in 18, whether she retires or not. And if she doesn't, hell yes i'd take Villaraigosa going at her, bad as he is. Or anybode else...
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Jan 23, 2015 03:19
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Gorilla Desperado posted:I don't care how good her health is, she needs to go for a lot of reasons, preferably by retiring because that makes it easier. I had actually hoped Steyer's interest was in order to raise his profile and gain experience in campaigning before going for Feinstein's seat in 18, whether she retires or not. And if she doesn't, hell yes i'd take Villaraigosa going at her, bad as he is. Or anybode else... He's not going to primary a sitting senator, none of them are unless it gets to the point where they trundle her around like a vote casting mummy. Even then I doubt voters would respond well to that, people love their incumbents. You people love to talk about how Jeb's been out of politics for too long or that such and such candidate is fading into irrelevancy. Well if those cases are true then Villaraigosa has to factor in those same concerns when deciding how much longer to wait. Its not like he only recently left office. Cliff Racer has issued a correction as of 04:30 on Jan 23, 2015 |
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Jan 23, 2015 03:24
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