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Professor Shark posted:
but it happened in GTA not Vancouver
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Feb 3, 2015 03:12
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Sassafras posted:Honestly, Calgary's been the least bubbly major city over the last decade. They started a bit late in the mid-2000s, and the oil price crash in 2008 kicked everybody there hard and made them wary even as interest rates plummeted. And here, just as soon as they start to go crazy a second time, oil bombs again. That just makes them look even dumber. They know better than anyone about this cycle of boom and bust and yet they still think to themselves "But this time it will be different!  "
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Feb 3, 2015 04:43
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How did Montreal manage to avoid real estate bubble problems? It seems much more reasonably priced compared to the other big name cities.
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Feb 3, 2015 04:51
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etalian posted:How did Montreal manage to avoid real estate bubble problems? Back in 1995, a walk-up in St-Henri cost 80k. A duplex in lower westmount was selling for 250k.
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Feb 3, 2015 04:53
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etalian posted:How did Montreal manage to avoid real estate bubble problems? The spectre of separation has a negative effect on pricing, not to mention the general economic vibrancy of the place.
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Feb 3, 2015 05:01
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Lexicon posted:The spectre of separation has a negative effect on pricing, not to mention the general economic vibrancy of the place. forced to learn a messed up version of french too
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Feb 3, 2015 05:08
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Lexicon posted:The spectre of separation has a negative effect on pricing, not to mention the general economic vibrancy of the place. I'd argue the Bank of Montreal and CN leaving Montreal was the nail in the coffin, but the province was/is dunzo going back to the early 80's when they straight up elected René Lévesque. Many tend to forget, prior to 75 Quebec was a leading "have" province with a legitimate shot in 79 according to many Euro journals as being one of the top places in the world, perhaps eclipsing Paris in 20 years. Name an industry but if you pull up the TSX from the 70's, more than half the 'diversification' liberal economists today whine about was due to the carving out and populism which killed the Quebec based shipping, advanced nuclear tech, aerospace, and bioscience programs growing out of McGill and Laval graduate programs. PQ led to the single largest emigration when they doubled the sales tax, killed R&D credits at a provincial level and then enabled Teamsters/United Steel (read the Cotroni crime family) to drive out most of the precious metal/forest industry. What followed is pretty well documented, starting with the Canadair plant shutdowns and finally, ending with BMO when the Bank had to explain to shareholders why they were paying more to keep a vestigial office presence in a province which generated less than 3% of their earnings. What most saw in 95 was the deindustrialization of Quebec which had been 10 years in the making. Kind of like Ontario/NFld. today Would not be shocked if we see Rona, Bombardier and Dollarama (or Jean Coutu) incorporate in the USA inorder to do proper bond offerings or allow themselves to be sold in the next 5 years http://business.financialpost.com/2012/11/27/takeovers-are-coming-some-of-quebecs-biggest-companies-vulnerable-to-foreign-bids/ (sorry I didn't reply to the responses to the named corp champions/brands; don't hate. Yes, I did get Lotus wrong, it was late and I was going from memory. Busy with work & all. I stand by all the others as they are iconic brands who still are goodwill and have recognition talent; even Standard Brands does, ever eat a Dare food product recently ? ).
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Feb 3, 2015 05:19
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etalian posted:How did Montreal manage to avoid real estate bubble problems? Montreals bubble also came in the form of a zillion new condos.
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Feb 3, 2015 05:35
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ocrumsprug posted:Montreals bubble also came in the form of a zillion new condos. It's basically a post-real estate bubble city.
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Feb 3, 2015 06:39
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http://www.marilyn.ca/AtHome/segments/Daily/February2015/2_2_2015/HouseShopCanada Ahahhahaha this loving video, eveything about it. Also Victoria is a good buy because it already had it's correction so now is the time to buy, in fact it might even be too late BUY BUY BUY!!! Vibrant Victoria is pushing this vid . Also, this is loving amazing: Debt and mortgages aren't bad for a country. Croatia has 90% ownership rate and almost no one has a mortgage, yet canada is a better place to live and people from Croatia move here. Thus, there is absolutely no correlation between debt load and health of an economy. Also europe has a horrible housing model because anywhere worth living in Europe is like 100x more expensive than Victoria. Doctors have to live in 600sqft apartments while here they could own a house. Canadian housing model is the world's best. Cheap plentiful single family homes like in the US, but no bubble due to our superior banks and general superior Canadian culture. Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 20:46 on Feb 3, 2015 |
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Feb 3, 2015 20:40
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Baronjutter posted:http://www.marilyn.ca/AtHome/segments/Daily/February2015/2_2_2015/HouseShopCanada Rockwood AKA loving Guelph is 65 minutes away from Toronto WITHOUT TRAFFIC. That turns into 2-2.5 hours real quick during rush hour. Every. Day.
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Feb 3, 2015 21:38
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Sovy Kurosei posted:The place I own already lost tens of thousands of dollar in value as far as the City of Edmonton is concerned. I got that update in the beginning of January so I imagine it will get much worse as this year goes on. You do realize that an assessment doesn't mean much for how much your house is worth, right? Mass appraisals like that are guidelines at best - though we often see people that insist the value of their property should be the same as the assessed value.
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Feb 3, 2015 22:03
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Yeah I've seen places go for hundreds of thousands over assessed. At the time time, places go for under. Although if a place is going for under assessed that's a good candidate to challenge the assessment. Lot of people don't know you can challenge it if you think it's too high. I've seen idiots challenge it for thinking it was TOO LOW. Why yes I want to pay more in property taxes. It was a matter of pride for them. They knew their house was better than their neighbours but were mad they were reporting more or less the same value. No they weren't planning on selling, it was a matter of pride.
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Feb 3, 2015 22:10
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peter banana posted:Rockwood AKA loving Guelph is 65 minutes away from Toronto WITHOUT TRAFFIC. That turns into 2-2.5 hours real quick during rush hour. Can't put a price on spending literal years of your life in bumper to bumper traffic. After all, who raises kids in the city? Living near downtown is fun when you're a kid and all that but as you grow older and more mature you're going to want to move to the suburbs. In Halifax you get a lot of people who live 40-50 minutes away from the city in places that really shouldn't have been amalgamated (hey, why are there actual gold mines, christmas tree farms, and lobstering operations in my city boundaries?) who whine about how the city isn't doing enough to help with their commute and how those pesky bike lanes are taking away from real Canadians who pay taxes.
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Feb 3, 2015 22:25
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Baronjutter posted:Yeah I've seen places go for hundreds of thousands over assessed. At the time time, places go for under. Although if a place is going for under assessed that's a good candidate to challenge the assessment. Lot of people don't know you can challenge it if you think it's too high. I've seen idiots challenge it for thinking it was TOO LOW. Why yes I want to pay more in property taxes. It was a matter of pride for them. They knew their house was better than their neighbours but were mad they were reporting more or less the same value. No they weren't planning on selling, it was a matter of pride. I'm trying to help a friend who saw his assessment jump by ~$100,000 or so in the last year. No big changes to the house, and the comparables the city provided don't give any evidence of a huge shift either. Too bad he's in Ontario for the next month or so, so actually helping him won't happen for a while yet.
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Feb 3, 2015 22:28
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Isentropy posted:Can't put a price on spending literal years of your life in bumper to bumper traffic. After all, who raises kids in the city? Living near downtown is fun when you're a kid and all that but as you grow older and more mature you're going to want to move to the suburbs. That's the thing though. Guelph isn't the suburbs. It's farm/university/farm-university town. I mean, I like Guelph, but no one's going to mistake it for part of Toronto. There's a significant stretch of suburbs and then a significant stretch of nothing and then Guelph as you head out of Toronto. Baronjutter posted:Yeah I've seen places go for hundreds of thousands over assessed. At the time time, places go for under. Although if a place is going for under assessed that's a good candidate to challenge the assessment. Lot of people don't know you can challenge it if you think it's too high. I've seen idiots challenge it for thinking it was TOO LOW. Why yes I want to pay more in property taxes. It was a matter of pride for them. They knew their house was better than their neighbours but were mad they were reporting more or less the same value. No they weren't planning on selling, it was a matter of pride. A lot of the farm properties I look up on Zoopraisal (which probably counts for nothing, because it compares nearby) are way UNDER the asking price. Farms listed at $800k come up as $200k. What accounts for that? People just being chancers?
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Feb 3, 2015 22:43
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peter banana posted:A lot of the farm properties I look up on Zoopraisal (which probably counts for nothing, because it compares nearby) are way UNDER the asking price. Farms listed at $800k come up as $200k. What accounts for that? People just being chancers? Or the appraisal is way off - are these located in the county by chance? I might be able to tell you more if I had an area to look into, some jurisdictions use varying approaches to value which can give a bit of variance in the appraised value. Something to recognize is the assessment is used for tax purposes, meaning they have to compare like versus like. Consistency between properties is more important than accuracy in the value reached. Like I said earlier, they're not reliable for a value estimate. e: send me a message if you want me to dig a bit. The answer could be they're asking wayyyyy too much. Baudin fucked around with this message at 22:48 on Feb 3, 2015 |
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Feb 3, 2015 22:46
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Baudin posted:Or the appraisal is way off - are these located in the county by chance? I might be able to tell you more if I had an area to look into, some jurisdictions use varying approaches to value which can give a bit of variance in the appraised value. I see, farm businesses only pay 25% of what the HST for a regular business would be, maybe that accounts for it. Or maybe the appraisal's way off.
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Feb 3, 2015 22:47
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peter banana posted:I see, farm businesses only pay 25% of what the HST for a regular business would be, maybe that accounts for it. Or maybe the appraisal's way off. Assessment, not appraisal. Big difference  HST shouldn't make a large difference in the assessed value.
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Feb 3, 2015 22:49
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Absolutely mindblowing interview by Izabella Kaminska with a guy who's got a good theory on why oil prices are hosed forever. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/02/03/2109272/a-conversation-with-michael-masters/ quote:Back in May 2008, nobody — especially regulators — had a clue about what was causing crude oil prices to spike to $100-per-barrel-levels, and mostly everyone was inclined to either blame “China” or “speculators” or some combination of the two.  quote:But as Masters explained to FT Alphaville on Monday, the core part of his argument was always based on the notion that prices respond to order flows irrespective of whether they are speculator or hedger driven. Furthermore, he added, the inelastic nature of the oil market has always meant it can take a very long time — people’s entire careers — for imbalances to be corrected, something that understandably allows for serious mispricings to last a very long time. tl;dr speculators drove the price oil up so high, producers responded. Producing oil requires a huge amount of capital expenditure and now that the infrastructure is in place, we won't be seeing cheap oil ever again because innovation has made it so cheap and easy to produce, not to mention a bunch of the infrastructure is just sitting around idle. tl;dr::tl;dr lol alberta
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Feb 4, 2015 00:24
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Scott Barlow has an easier to digest summary: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/top-links-oils-crash-is-like-the-end-of-the-tech-bubble/article22757284/ quote:
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Feb 4, 2015 00:25
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Baronjutter posted:http://www.marilyn.ca/AtHome/segments/Daily/February2015/2_2_2015/HouseShopCanada lmao what a Backpfeifengesicht 
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Feb 4, 2015 01:41
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Cultural Imperial posted:tl;dr speculators drove the price oil up so high, producers responded. Producing oil requires a huge amount of capital expenditure and now that the infrastructure is in place, we won't be seeing cheap oil ever again because innovation has made it so cheap and easy to produce, not to mention a bunch of the infrastructure is just sitting around idle. you mean "we wont see expensive oil ever again" or did I misunderstand the guy's arguments?
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Feb 4, 2015 01:44
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Dreylad posted:you mean "we wont see expensive oil ever again" or did I misunderstand the guy's arguments? Yes, i meant expensive. brain fart
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Feb 4, 2015 01:45
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Even Saudi Arabia's head oil honcho pretty much sees a snowball's chance of hell of getting $100 per barrel given all the rapid advances in the industry. lmao looks like Alberta will have more than a year or two of a commodity price famine. The province needs at least $75 dollar per barrel to balance the province budget.
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Feb 4, 2015 01:49
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etalian posted:Even Saudi Arabia's head oil honcho pretty much sees a snowball's chance of hell of getting $100 per barrel given all the rapid advances in the industry. Guess who's going to shoulder that particular burden whether they want to or not (hint is the public servants)
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Feb 4, 2015 01:51
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I can't wait for Alberta to become the maritimes
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Feb 4, 2015 01:54
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Cultural Imperial posted:I can't wait for Alberta to become the maritimes At least no more whining from Albertans about other provinces stealing their money. Also owns how all the great modern inventions like derivatives basically horribly broke concepts like supply and demand. Basically overallocation in speculative commodity products on a massive scale caused the bubble.
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Feb 4, 2015 02:11
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etalian posted:At least no more whining from Albertans about other provinces stealing their money. Cmon man. Ask yourself what changed. Derivatives have been around for centuries. Glass stegall and gently caress bill Clinton. Also double gently caress Greenspan
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Feb 4, 2015 02:14
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etalian posted:At least no more whining from Albertans about other provinces stealing their money. I remember in one of the older CanPol threads there was an Albertan poster (not PT6A) who claimed that if Alberta had actually put oil money in the reserve fund then the other provinces would have definitly used the federal government to steal it somehow, meaning that really poor Alberta had no choice but to pre-emptively blow all their oil money because otherwise they wouldn't get to keep it. So yeah, don't hold your breath. One way or another, whether they are doing great or doing poorly, Albertans will find a way to convince themselves that the rest of the country is screwing them.
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Feb 4, 2015 02:15
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Albertans get excited over a few dollars increase even though the province needs at least a $75 price to balance the budget: http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Lamphier+prices+surge+again+raising+hopes+Alberta+oilpatch/10784774/story.html
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Feb 4, 2015 02:29
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Baudin posted:Or the appraisal is way off - are these located in the county by chance? I might be able to tell you more if I had an area to look into, some jurisdictions use varying approaches to value which can give a bit of variance in the appraised value. Another thing to realize is that if a property is actively used for farming purposes the standard for valuation is not always market value - In jurisdictions I'm familiar with atleast the assessment of farmland and buildings used for farming activities is regulated and there are all sorts of exemptions and non assessable components to these properties that may not translate to what they actually want for the property on the market. Also there could be potential for other uses besides farming (say a re-zoning of the property) which could influence the value to a potential purchaser in a way that is not reflected in the assessment calculation. As for your friend trying to get his assessment reduced, my experience from talking to people in res assessment is that if the property owner can provide even a couple of comparable sales at a lower level than the current assessment they get a reduction. The Assessment Review Boards see so many baseless or unsupported appeals that the first glimpse they get of a home owner who has actually put some time and effort into the process and has the ghost of an argument, they decide to reduce.
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Feb 4, 2015 02:37
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Helsing posted:I remember in one of the older CanPol threads there was an Albertan poster (not PT6A) who claimed that if Alberta had actually put oil money in the reserve fund then the other provinces would have definitly used the federal government to steal it somehow, meaning that really poor Alberta had no choice but to pre-emptively blow all their oil money because otherwise they wouldn't get to keep it. There's a good reason why Norway moved its oil royalty money into a sovereign fund.
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Feb 4, 2015 03:56
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etalian posted:There's a good reason why Norway moved its oil royalty money into a sovereign fund.  http://www.nbim.no/en/
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Feb 4, 2015 08:29
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Even Rabbits have condos now:quote:Urban rabbits are downsizing their homes, some even to small "studio" burrows, according to a study of European rabbits http://www.bbc.com/earth/story/20150203-town-rabbits-downsize-homes
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Feb 4, 2015 09:47
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We have bunnies in our neighborhood. Urban bunnies rule. 
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Feb 4, 2015 14:43
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Starsfan posted:As for your friend trying to get his assessment reduced, my experience from talking to people in res assessment is that if the property owner can provide even a couple of comparable sales at a lower level than the current assessment they get a reduction. The Assessment Review Boards see so many baseless or unsupported appeals that the first glimpse they get of a home owner who has actually put some time and effort into the process and has the ghost of an argument, they decide to reduce. I could literally use the comparables they presented as their "evidence." I kind of want to talk to the assessor responsible and see if they bothered to look at what the prior year's assessment was, since there's nothing that supports the massive jump in assessed value. Sadly I don't have any residential contacts at the assessment department since I don't do single family houses (commercial/multifamily/industrial/bit of land) so this is kind of stretching my expertise as it is.
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Feb 4, 2015 17:15
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It's also what the House of Saud does, they take money from a cyclical commodity and cleverly diversify out into multiple investment types.
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Feb 5, 2015 03:11
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...rticle22796181/ “If oil does continue to stay where it is, I would say by the spring you’re going to see a lot of buyers out there trying to take advantage of the fear in the market,” said Sotheby’s Canadian president and chief executive officer Ross McCredie." Realtors 
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Feb 5, 2015 04:09
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Pieces posted:http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...rticle22796181/ I lolled at the article CI posted explaining the commodity bubble, basically it was driven by big money chasing commodities as a good asset class investment, so the high price was the illusion of demand more than anything else. Well the price of oil has to go up eventually, even though people believe it will stick at a low market rate over the next few years due to a vast amount of oversupply. http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/bartiromo/2015/01/11/bartiromo-saudi-prince-alwaleed-oil-100-barrel/21484911/ quote:Q: Will prices continue to fall?
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Feb 5, 2015 04:18
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