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This could have all been avoided if vodka was plentiful and cheap.
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Feb 6, 2015 12:05
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YF-23 posted:Greece doesn't have a problem with just its internal oligarchy. Or did you think that the faulty German submarines we purchased with bribes were actually Greek? And that's just an example, there's countless more (hello Siemens - it got brought up in a journalist question at the press conference yesterday). Yes, Michael Christoforakos is a free man because the Greek judicial system is bad, not because Germany is protecting him. It's not Germany's fault that Greece was unable to prosecute him before the statues of limitations where reached and it's not Germany's fault that Greek officials are highly corrupt.
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Feb 6, 2015 12:08
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LemonDrizzle posted:Lol, Finland's eurosceptic party is forcing a vote of confidence against its government because they haven't forced Greece out of the eurozone yet. The Finn is a bloodthirsty beast and when deprived of Russians to shoot he turns his wrath on the first best alternative target. Russians and Greeks - both Slavs 
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Feb 6, 2015 12:18
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Shazback posted:With all the people blaming Greece's situation at the feet of the EU/Troika/Germany based on the austerity that was forced on Greece, I went to look at the road map that was set out for Greece, to just revel in how hostile and neoliberal it would be. I was expecting line after line of health care spending slashes, pensions being cancelled or even perhaps a few draconian situations such as sacking huge numbers of public servants. Obviously that was a completely delusional idea and the complete opposite happened. So to reach budgetary targets, countries had to enact more and more austerity, severely worsening the depression Europe was already in.
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Feb 6, 2015 13:10
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Geriatric Pirate posted:
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Feb 6, 2015 13:31
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Are we sure that austerity cannot work? If SYRIZA can get it's hands on all the oligarchs that are evading taxes with impunity, can clamp down on corruption and fight tax evasion in general, they could use the new revenue to satisfy their creditors and spend more of them on the poor, rehiring government employees, restoring cuts to social programmes.
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Feb 6, 2015 14:07
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Lol EDIT: Just had an interesting austerity discussion with a Lithuanian friend of mine. She's pretty smart and holds a degree in econ. Basically, in her words, the Baltics didn't have any options besides implementing austerity or defaulting. Here are some arguments why it helped Lithuania (I'm paraphrasing some things here): -Lithuania didn't have a realistic alternative. The country didn't have the funds to stimulate spending. Either you default and take the IMF death pill, or implement austerity and climb out of the recession yourself. -Exports became competitive and helped drag the economy out of its slump. -Interest rates went down when the government implemented an austerity-ridden budget. -This in result attracted a bunch of companies to establish large corporate centers, which greatly improved the job market and raised the income bar for local yuppies (her examples include Barclays and Western Union). So why didn't it work for Greece? 
awesome-express fucked around with this message at 14:35 on Feb 6, 2015 |
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Feb 6, 2015 14:14
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Torrannor posted:Are we sure that austerity cannot work? If SYRIZA can get it's hands on all the oligarchs that are evading taxes with impunity, can clamp down on corruption and fight tax evasion in general, they could use the new revenue to satisfy their creditors and spend more of them on the poor, rehiring government employees, restoring cuts to social programmes. Improving civil administration isn't austerity, austerity is reducing the immediate expenditure on civil administration regardless of its impact on efficiency and total government expenditure.
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Feb 6, 2015 14:17
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Torrannor posted:Are we sure that austerity cannot work? If SYRIZA can get it's hands on all the oligarchs that are evading taxes with impunity, can clamp down on corruption and fight tax evasion in general, they could use the new revenue to satisfy their creditors and spend more of them on the poor, rehiring government employees, restoring cuts to social programmes. Greece's fiscal problems would be a lot better off that way, but the central idea of auserity being expansionary is still flatly absurd: in the economy, your spending is someone else's wages. Government spending cuts to finance interest payments is just a removal of spending that would otherwise comprise someone's wages, resulting in higher unemployment and economic shrinkage.
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Feb 6, 2015 14:18
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CSM posted:Keynes published his work "A Treatise on Money" when British government debt was above 150%: A country with war debt (i.e. debt from a shock that hasn't created a uncompetitive public sector) and a country with debt that's been accumulated to give voters/friends easy, well-paying jobs are the same thing. In fact they're different in almost exactly the way I described in the post you quoted... awesome-express posted:Lol The bolded part: Neither did Greece, nor do they have the money today. Essentially they're just begging for more from the EU... It "didn't work" (i.e. the results didn't happen immediately which is equivalent to failure for goons) partly because Greece was much slower to implement changes than Lithuania and Greece had bigger fundamental problems than Lithuania. Greece was a debt fueled economy with a dual deficit whereas Lithuania had a relatively well-functioning government and an overheating private sector, but even the private sector overheating was mainly in the financial/housing sector instead of just about everywhere. Torrannor posted:Are we sure that austerity cannot work? If SYRIZA can get it's hands on all the oligarchs that are evading taxes with impunity, can clamp down on corruption and fight tax evasion in general, they could use the new revenue to satisfy their creditors and spend more of them on the poor, rehiring government employees, restoring cuts to social programmes.
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Feb 6, 2015 14:57
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Another big problem why Greece has more problems than other countries with the reform program is the fact that they are doing it only kicking and screaming, which does not instill confidence in potential investors. Having regular demonstrations in which well respected politicians like Angela Merkel are defamed as Nazis do not lead to more money flowing into Greeks.
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Feb 6, 2015 15:18
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GaussianCopula posted:Another big problem why Greece has more problems than other countries with the reform program is the fact that they are doing it only kicking and screaming, which does not instill confidence in potential investors. Having regular demonstrations in which well respected politicians like Angela Merkel are defamed as Nazis do not lead to more money flowing into Greeks. If only the Greeks stopped being so rude and uncouth during their protests (as opposed to French or Germans who are always mild and gentle), clearly everyone would take them seriously! This is even more stupid than the press complaining about Vafourakis' dress code.
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Feb 6, 2015 15:38
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Gantolandon posted:If only the Greeks stopped being so rude and uncouth during their protests (as opposed to French or Germans who are always mild and gentle), clearly everyone would take them seriously! Other countries will treat you like poo poo if they find out you faked your credentials to join their monetary union.
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Feb 6, 2015 15:39
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awesome-express posted:Other countries will treat you like poo poo if they find out you faked your credentials to join their monetary union. You say this like everyone wasn't knowing and complicit in the fakery. It was pretty clear that the EU was expanding at the expense of strict adherence to its treaties at the time.
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Feb 6, 2015 15:41
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Gantolandon posted:If only the Greeks stopped being so rude and uncouth during their protests (as opposed to French or Germans who are always mild and gentle), clearly everyone would take them seriously! French are a pretty rowdy crowd but Germany is pretty mild mannered. Sure PEGIDA does not look great but compare these 2 pictures (to not have bias I simply used the top-left picture found for the keywords "greece demonstration" and "germany demonstration" via GIS) Greece  Germany  Where would you rather built your new factory? You could also look at the whole first page of GIS with those keywords and compare them to Spain, Portugal, Ireland etc. and you will see Greece looks by far the worst.
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Feb 6, 2015 15:49
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We have about 5% unemployment here vs. >25% unemployment in Greece, with them having seen a tremendous decline in living standards, of course our demonstrations look tame compared to them.
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Feb 6, 2015 15:55
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Feb 6, 2015 15:55
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The consensus on Varoufakis' diplomatic efforts so far doesn't seem terribly good - he's not swayed any of the hawkish countries or organisations away from their initial positions, and none of the countries sympathetic to Greece have done anything more than express a bit of sympathy; essentially, all they've done is say "yeah, the situation sucks but we're not picking a fight with Germany just for your sake so you're going to have to comply." e: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-06/eurogroup-chief-rules-out-bridge-loan-sought-by-greece quote:Euro-area governments won’t grant Greece’s request for a short-term financing agreement to keep the country afloat while it renegotiates the terms of its financial support, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, chair of the bloc’s finance ministers’ group, said. "Accept our deal by the end of the month or accept national ruin." LemonDrizzle fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Feb 6, 2015 |
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Feb 6, 2015 16:11
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GaussianCopula posted:French are a pretty rowdy crowd but Germany is pretty mild mannered. Sure PEGIDA does not look great but compare these 2 pictures (to not have bias I simply used the top-left picture found for the keywords "greece demonstration" and "germany demonstration" via GIS) You're either completely disingenuous, really caught up in a sense of overwhelming national superiority, an absolute fuckwit, or a combination of all three. 
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Feb 6, 2015 17:24
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LemonDrizzle posted:Lol, Finland's eurosceptic party is forcing a vote of confidence against its government because they haven't forced Greece out of the eurozone yet. The Finn is a bloodthirsty beast and when deprived of Russians to shoot he turns his wrath on the first best alternative target. hahaha
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Feb 6, 2015 17:26
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Pesmerga posted:You're either completely disingenuous, really caught up in a sense of overwhelming national superiority, an absolute fuckwit, or a combination of all three. I designed the experiment before looking at the results and actually expected a picture like the one you posted to come up for Germany and the my message would still be the same. But let's look at other countries that were forced to do reforms after the crisis: Spain:  Portugal  Ireland  Italy  Where would you invest?
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Feb 6, 2015 17:46
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LemonDrizzle posted:The consensus on Varoufakis' diplomatic efforts so far doesn't seem terribly good - he's not swayed any of the hawkish countries or organisations away from their initial positions, and none of the countries sympathetic to Greece have done anything more than express a bit of sympathy; essentially, all they've done is say "yeah, the situation sucks but we're not picking a fight with Germany just for your sake so you're going to have to comply." To the surprise of absolutely no one they are unable to find an government that would like to support the opposition in their own land, by either showing that the opposition could have success with their plans (e.g. Spain, Portugal) or giving them more ammunition to attack the governing party from the right (e.g. France), while at the same time alienating the most powerful country (Germany) and their allies. In my eyes the key failure by SYRIZA was to partner up with the nationalist/rightwing-populist/anti-semitic ANEL party and to try to go for broke on the day after the election. They should have done what many pundits expected and make it work with To Potami, using that as an excuse to work moderate their stance and work something out with their European partners. I would have hated it because it would have meant a better deal than Greece deserves in my opinion, but it would have worked. Now Greece is going to either jump off the cliff or get new elections.
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Feb 6, 2015 18:03
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GaussianCopula posted:Where would you invest? In a country where the logistics infrastructures (highways, railways, canals, airports...) have been actively maintained throughout the last thirty years. What's the point of having a factory if I can reliably ship my production?
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Feb 6, 2015 18:05
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GaussianCopula posted:I designed the experiment before looking at the results and actually expected a picture like the one you posted to come up for Germany and the my message would still be the same. But let's look at other countries that were forced to do reforms after the crisis: This isn't an experiment, and there definitely isn't design in it. Googling 'demonstrations in [country X]' is not a way of determining whether a country is safe for investment, nor does it tell you anything about demonstrations/protests/riots. I could just grab a few photos of German environmentalists being tear-gassed or water-cannoned by the police, and use it to justify not investing in Germany because people are too violent/anti-business/risky for tourism or whatever really. It would be equally (in)valid as an argument.
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Feb 6, 2015 18:08
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awesome-express posted:Just had an interesting austerity discussion with a Lithuanian friend of mine. She's pretty smart and holds a degree in econ. Basically, in her words, the Baltics didn't have any options besides implementing austerity or defaulting. Someone with an economics education who insists that There Is No Alternative? Well I never... GaussianCopula posted:French are a pretty rowdy crowd but Germany is pretty mild mannered. Sure PEGIDA does not look great but compare these 2 pictures (to not have bias I simply used the top-left picture found for the keywords "greece demonstration" and "germany demonstration" via GIS) I used this Highly Scientific And Representative Method and searched for "Germany May Day Demonstration" and "Greece May Day Demonstration": Germany first 2 hits:   Greece first 2 hits:   The swarthy German is violent and untrustworthy, whereas the Greek is noble and civilized. Orange Devil fucked around with this message at 18:22 on Feb 6, 2015 |
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Feb 6, 2015 18:15
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I just used the GaussianCopula Young Capitalist Investor Experiment, and guys I think I found the next big thing to invest in. With such oderly demonstrations how can my factories be at risk? The research checks out.
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Feb 6, 2015 18:24
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Greek Mass Gathering: German Mass Gathering:  A striking juxtaposition if you ask me.
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Feb 6, 2015 18:28
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Realtalk: Germany sucks if you're an investor. Nobody wants to invest in Germany, not even the Germans. http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/diw-weak-infrastructure-investment-threatens-german-future-a-907885.html
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Feb 6, 2015 18:36
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^^^ Sad but trueOrange Devil posted:German Mass Gathering: 
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Feb 6, 2015 18:37
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Cat Mattress posted:Realtalk: Germany sucks if you're an investor. Nobody wants to invest in Germany, not even the Germans. Probably helps explain the absurdly over-exuberant German savings rate.
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Feb 6, 2015 18:42
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Nektu posted:^^^ Sad but true Be fair it was a really stupid metric that only deserves mockery.
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Feb 6, 2015 18:45
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Now is the time for the rest of the European Left to bring their governments to their knees with unrest in solidarity with Greece. If SYRIZA really is the basis for a new alternative to austerity folks better act like it.
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Feb 6, 2015 18:53
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Cat Mattress posted:Realtalk: Germany sucks if you're an investor. Nobody wants to invest in Germany, not even the Germans. double nine posted:Be fair it was a really stupid metric that only deserves mockery.
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Feb 6, 2015 18:55
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A Buttery Pastry posted:To reiterate: German dead weight. Nektu fucked around with this message at 19:05 on Feb 6, 2015 |
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Feb 6, 2015 19:01
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Geriatric Pirate posted:Greece is in a political union which has countries where the MEDIAN wage is half of the Greek MINIMUM wage and GDP per capita is about 1/3rd of Greece's, so the argument that Germany owes something to Greece because Greece is poor still breaks down. How is this important when there are countries in the Eurozone that are considerably wealthier than Greece? Should someone only give a poo poo when it is absolutely the poorest country rather than face a massive loss of a standard of living in comparison to where it was? Also, your GDP number is misleading as hell. In PPP terms (which is useful here), in 2015 Bulgaria (the poorest country in the EU) was $17,869 and Greece (using 2014 numbers) was $24,575. Bulgaria was 1/3rd in nominal terms but prices in Greece are much higher and ultimately the difference isn't nearly as drastic. So should Greece only be helped once its GDP per capita PPP is lower than Bulgaria? You are quite intellectually dishonest. quote:Argument I have also been saying it is costs from bailing out their bank, bailout costs have lead to massive deficits previously. This also seems to have been ignored. However there is also a logical disconnect here, because even if interest and repayments aren't comparably bad, Greece's other macro-economic indicators at the same time are terrible, it can't be an absolute comparison but a relative one. Greece was still projected to be in deficit in 2015 (by at least 3%, most likely more), which meant they kept on having to borrow which means they had to keep on having the same measures. A 3% deficit isn't much for wealthy economy but Greece is not a healthy economy, so even when the situation is in at its best, Greece can't leave the program. Basically, not it is still not good enough. Also: Greek interest payments once were huge which helped spur the mount of debt in the beginning. quote:Greece paid 15.5 bln euros in net interest payments in 2011, 17% of total general revenues. This is the highest among all OECD countries and more than 3 times the OECD average of 5%. It is also more than double the 8% average for other peripheral countries in the euro zone. Greece needs to be allowed to return to not just a primary deficit but a true deficit and be allowed measures to stabilize on a social level, and that requires interest and repayments not only comparable to France or Italy but comparably better than them. This is something the rest of Europe should want because it allows Greece to start deleveraging itself. quote:#3) Greek debt was unsustainable because the recession was taking too long (only true if you're a goon and think structural reform and economic growth happens overnight) It is very clear the Greek people as a whole have had a enough, they tried your reforms and they aren't sustainable. It was and still is a time for a new plan. You are pretending there is a unlimited time scale to think with here, and there isn't. quote:#4) Greece needs more money now because of a potential future crisis later (we all know how going into a crisis with an uncompetitive economy and high debt levels worked out for Greece last time) What you are doing is making sure the Greek economy is weak, with high employment and debt levels, the perfect recipe for things to get worse. Your prescription for "competitiveness" is nuts (very high unemployment and laughable minimum wages versus prices) and Greece is running out of time. quote:Also just a clarification on Keynesian stimulus: It's supposed to be used to smooth out shocks in the economy. If your economy was operating at a higher "level" than it should have been because of decades of borrowing regardless of whether things were good or bad, things are a bit different. Eh Neo-Keynesians have been adamant that current policy versus Greece doesn't make any sense, if a economy in is a crisis but don't starve it until it is even in worse shape. They may saw over time that Greece should cut costs and try to find a more sustainable budget but it needs to get out of the woods to get there. You refuse to allow Greece out of the woods. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 19:24 on Feb 6, 2015 |
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Feb 6, 2015 19:08
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Cat Mattress posted:Realtalk: Germany sucks if you're an investor. Nobody wants to invest in Germany, not even the Germans. A left leaning institute publishes a study that the German government doesn't spend ("invest) enough money. If you look at Foreign Direct Investments, Germany is #5 in the world, behind the US, UK, Hongkong and China. Greece on the other hand is 56th, behind Bulgaria, Morocco and Venezuela. Ardennes posted:Eh Neo-Keynesians have been adamant that current policy versus Greece doesn't make any sense, if a economy in is a crisis but don't starve it until it is even in worse shape. They may saw over time that Greece should cut costs and try to find a more sustainable budget but it needs to get out of the woods to get there. You refuse to allow Greece out of the woods. Why does the left only read Keynes when the times are bad but never in good times? Never heard of them saying "we have a budget surplus, let's start a savings account, so that we can use that money to buffer the economy in the next bust cycle." GaussianCopula fucked around with this message at 19:19 on Feb 6, 2015 |
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Feb 6, 2015 19:13
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GaussianCopula posted:Why does the left only read Keynes when the times are bad but never in good times? Never heard of them saying "we have a budget surplus, let's start a savings account, so that we can use that money to buffer the economy in the next bust cycle." As a non-leftist I agree this is a core weakness of leftist economics. This does not mean they're wrong now. In fact -almost everybody- agrees that Greece cannot pay back those loans, not just the neo-Keynesians.
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Feb 6, 2015 19:25
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GaussianCopula posted:Why does the left only read Keynes when the times are bad but never in good times? Never heard of them saying "we have a budget surplus, let's start a savings account, so that we can use that money to buffer the economy in the next bust cycle." Probably because everything since 2008 fell apart when economies were already over leveraged? If you asking me that economies should having an savings account and try to get in a good fiscal position at some point, I don't disagree but the bone to pick right here is refusing to ever allow a fiscal stimulus. Also a surplus and savings doesn't necessarily have to come from cutting welfare programs either. You can argue for savings AND social welfare at the same time, you need revenue to do it. Greece honestly probably shouldn't be in the Eurozone in the long term, but it needs to stabilize itself to get out of it and build up reserves for its own currency. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 19:31 on Feb 6, 2015 |
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Feb 6, 2015 19:27
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Ardennes posted:Probably because everything since 2008 fell apart when economies were already over leveraged? If you asking me that economies should having an savings account and try to get in a good fiscal position at some point, I don't disagree but the bone to pick right here is refusing to ever allow a fiscal stimulus. Why did the left not tell Greece in 2000, 1990, 1980 or any point in between that they should stop the deficit spending because the times are "good". I believe that political incentives are structured in a way that make the Keynesian model unworkable in the long run, because no one will ever do the other half of his plan. But I guess in the long run we are all dead, and the long run for Greece is here.
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Feb 6, 2015 19:31
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DOCTOR ZIMBARDO posted:Now is the time for the rest of the European Left to bring their governments to their knees with unrest in solidarity with Greece. If SYRIZA really is the basis for a new alternative to austerity folks better act like it. Forgot to include the article with this - https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/02/syriza-merkel-euro-far-right/ It's worthwhile to underline that Germany and other rich economies benefit considerably from having the weak members in the Eurozone. Thinking of Greece as a mooch state is totally off-base. Adar posted:As a non-leftist I agree this is a core weakness of leftist economics. This does not mean they're wrong now. In fact -almost everybody- agrees that Greece cannot pay back those loans, not just the neo-Keynesians. Keynes isn't a leftist.
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Feb 6, 2015 19:34
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