EuroPol: abide by D&D values or don't post

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YF-23: Feb 17, 2011; My god, it's full of cat!

Geriatric Pirate posted:

No, but that doesn't mean Greece can't and shouldn't. Ideally you have balanced trade everywhere. Surpluses lead to accumulation of savings but lower living standards, deficits to higher living standards for a while. Neither one of those is good, but in the case of an indebted nation like Greece, surplus is probably the better option.

I'm waiting for pictures of you emptying your local supermarket of all Greek olive oil and feta then. If you think that trade surpluses are also bad then by god I expect you to help fix Finland's (or wherever you are from). :colbert:

# ? Feb 10, 2015 18:11

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 18:17

Gorau: Apr 28, 2008

DOCTOR ZIMBARDO posted:

It's totally astounding that a policy as moderate as a New European Deal, breaking with austerity across the entire Eurozone, is considered a farcical break with reality - that only further pain can bring any cure. Never mind actually dismantling capitalism - it's apparently impossible to even imagine moderating it!-

I agree. A European new deal would be great. But it's not going to happen until such time as there is a fiscal union in Europe. The wealthy countries will never agree to what amounts to a gift to other states without some benefit to them. In the US this benefit was growth of the tax base nation wide. In this case it would be a charge on The German, French and Scandinavian countries for the sole benefit of Greece. Not going to happen.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 18:11

golden bubble: Jun 3, 2011; yospos

Gorau posted:

I agree. A European new deal would be great. But it's not going to happen until such time as there is a fiscal union in Europe. The wealthy countries will never agree to what amounts to a gift to other states without some benefit to them. In the US this benefit was growth of the tax base nation wide. In this case it would be a charge on The German, French and Scandinavian countries for the sole benefit of Greece. Not going to happen.

Well, the benefit to the stronger European economies is easier access to the southern European export market, and a weaker currency for better exports. The problem is Germany and friends already got that benefit, and refuse to acknowledge that it is at all related to the current problems in southern Europe. From Merkel's point of view, they got all the benefits of a fiscal union, with none of the downsides (except the whole arrangement is unstable, but the Eurozone will never break up, right?)

# ? Feb 10, 2015 18:17

GaussianCopula: Jun 5, 2011; Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

YF-23 posted:

I'm waiting for pictures of you emptying your local supermarket of all Greek olive oil and feta then. If you think that trade surpluses are also bad then by god I expect you to help fix Finland's (or wherever you are from).

I'm actually boycotting Feta because I believe that PDO are evil and order my olive oil directly from Italy. I can't even think of a single product from Greece that I like.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 18:19

Maarek: Jun 9, 2002; Your silence only incriminates you further.

Riso posted:

Greece/Syriza is not getting what it wants because it publicly tore up any and all agreements.
When you refuse to work within the established system it is not a surprise when everyone tells you to gently caress off.

This is horseshit. Greece is not going to get what it needs because bailing them out is very politically unpopular.

Gorau posted:

I agree. A European new deal would be great. But it's not going to happen until such time as there is a fiscal union in Europe. The wealthy countries will never agree to what amounts to a gift to other states without some benefit to them. In the US this benefit was growth of the tax base nation wide. In this case it would be a charge on The German, French and Scandinavian countries for the sole benefit of Greece. Not going to happen.

For this exact reason.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 18:26

Riso: Oct 11, 2008; by merry exmarx

GaussianCopula posted:

I'm actually boycotting Feta because I believe that PDO are evil and order my olive oil directly from Italy. I can't even think of a single product from Greece that I like.

Haha, you think ordering olive oil from Italy is some kind of quality marker. Sorry, but the Mafia is big on adulteration.

The most important thing you can check for is what type of olives were used. Anything that talks about a mix without mentioning the olive types is bad stuff. Personally I found Aldi/Hofer has very good Cretan oil made out of 100% Koroneiki olives.

Maarek posted:

This is horseshit. Greece is not going to get what it needs because bailing them out is very politically unpopular.

It is unpopular but would not have been a problem until Greece decided to give a finger to everyone it owes money to.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 18:26

Cingulate: Oct 23, 2012; by Fluffdaddy

GaussianCopula posted:

wage development in industrial and trade sectors compared to the previous year.

What the hell is wrong with whoever decided to plot that data like this????

Also, that's a terrifying correlation between Germany and the rest of the EU. It could indicate that it is in Germany's best interest to keep the wages of everyone in the Eurozone going up ...

# ? Feb 10, 2015 18:27

DOCTOR ZIMBARDO: May 8, 2006

golden bubble posted:

Well, the benefit to the stronger European economies is easier access to the southern European export market, and a weaker currency for better exports. The problem is Germany and friends already got that benefit, and refuse to acknowledge that it is at all related to the current problems in southern Europe. From Merkel's point of view, they got all the benefits of a fiscal union, with none of the downsides (except the whole arrangement is unstable, but the Eurozone will never break up, right?)

Also don't forget it's depressing German wages - another win for German industrialists. And one rightists can conveniently blame on the Greeks, torpedoing the only real solution - international solidarity of workers rather than capitalists.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 18:29

Disinterested: Jun 29, 2011; You look like you're still raking it in. Still killing 'em?

Cingulate posted:

What the hell is wrong with whoever decided to plot that data like this????

They were born roughly between the Oder and the Rhine :smugdog:

# ? Feb 10, 2015 18:31

Riso: Oct 11, 2008; by merry exmarx

Disinterested posted:

They were born roughly between the Oder and the Rhine

drat Pollacks.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 18:41

Disinterested: Jun 29, 2011; You look like you're still raking it in. Still killing 'em?

Riso posted:

drat Pollacks.

Time to arrange a partition boys.

But this time, of Germany. Morgenthau, where you at?

# ? Feb 10, 2015 18:42

Bates: Jun 15, 2006

golden bubble posted:

Well, the benefit to the stronger European economies is easier access to the southern European export market, and a weaker currency for better exports. The problem is Germany and friends already got that benefit, and refuse to acknowledge that it is at all related to the current problems in southern Europe. From Merkel's point of view, they got all the benefits of a fiscal union, with none of the downsides (except the whole arrangement is unstable, but the Eurozone will never break up, right?)

Sure but in the US federal taxes are not thought of as wealthy states giving to poorer states. It's taxes individuals pay which are then redistributed to other individuals (among other things). People can freak out about taxes because they don't want to pay them but it's not directed at particular states. In the EU countries give a lump sum of money to the EU which then redistributes them to specific programs in member countries. You as an individual will never receive a cheque from the EU nor will you directly pay a tax to it. So all of the bitching in the US about the dirty poors taking ma monies instead becomes scaled up to nation states within the EU because that's where the wealth transfer takes place but the argument is still essentially the same: I don't want to pay up.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 18:44

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Anosmoman posted:

Sure but in the US federal taxes are not thought of as wealthy states giving to poorer states. It's taxes individuals pay which are then redistributed to other individuals (among other things). People can freak out about taxes because they don't want to pay them but it's not directed at particular states. In the EU countries give a lump sum of money to the EU which then redistributes them to specific programs in member countries. You as an individual will never receive a cheque from the EU nor will you directly pay a tax to it. So all of the bitching in the US about the dirty poors taking ma monies instead becomes scaled up to nation states within the EU because that's where the wealth transfer takes place but the argument is still essentially the same: I don't want to pay up.

There is a contingent of people who are fine with paying as long as they also see some return on their taxes though, which is where receiving benefits directly from the EU would do a lot of good. Wouldn't necessarily matter whether they got more out of it than they put in, just the knowledge that there is some sort of logic to who benefits and who pays beyond "the south is poorer on average, so we'll give them your money".

# ? Feb 10, 2015 19:02

Maarek: Jun 9, 2002; Your silence only incriminates you further.

Anosmoman posted:

Sure but in the US federal taxes are not thought of as wealthy states giving to poorer states. It's taxes individuals pay which are then redistributed to other individuals (among other things). People can freak out about taxes because they don't want to pay them but it's not directed at particular states. In the EU countries give a lump sum of money to the EU which then redistributes them to specific programs in member countries. You as an individual will never receive a cheque from the EU nor will you directly pay a tax to it. So all of the bitching in the US about the dirty poors taking ma monies instead becomes scaled up to nation states within the EU because that's where the wealth transfer takes place but the argument is still essentially the same: I don't want to pay up.

Yeah, and it's much easier to argue that when you don't share a common language or culture. The biggest problem is that taxation is short term and very visible and investments in education, infrastructure, or social programs is long term and much murkier. To a politician the short term is what matters for their career and human beings, in general, are bad at viewing things in the long run. Austerity is a great Eurozone political move for short term thinking, because it requires as little money as possible and doesn't piss off your constituents. In the long term, though, it fails miserably and the absolute best case scenario is that it slows down growth and prolongs your problems.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 19:07

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Maarek posted:

Yeah, and it's much easier to argue that when you don't share a common language or culture. The biggest problem is that taxation is short term and very visible and investments in education, infrastructure, or social programs is long term and much murkier. To a politician the short term is what matters for their career and human beings, in general, are bad at viewing things in the long run. Austerity is a great Eurozone political move for short term thinking, because it requires as little money as possible and doesn't piss off your constituents. In the long term, though, it fails miserably and the absolute best case scenario is that it slows down growth and prolongs your problems.

Ignoring the political difficulties of actually implementing it, a basic income given to every adult in the EU paid for by taxes on the wealthy would be both useful and immediate.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 19:34

double nine: Aug 8, 2013

A Buttery Pastry posted:

There is a contingent of people who are fine with paying as long as they also see some return on their taxes though, which is where receiving benefits directly from the EU would do a lot of good. Wouldn't necessarily matter whether they got more out of it than they put in, just the knowledge that there is some sort of logic to who benefits and who pays beyond "the south is poorer on average, so we'll give them your money".

Even if you made the best, most equitable and most unbiased and just redistribution mechanism man could possibly create, it would still be targetted by the ~~racists~~ eurosceptics as giving money to those lazy Greek/Spaniards/Portuguese/Irish/Bulgarians/... Now this wouldn't be a problem if we had a political elite with a vision and sense of purpose, but we don't. We have an abundance of politicians and a massive lack of Statesmen.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 19:36

GaussianCopula: Jun 5, 2011; Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Ignoring the political difficulties of actually implementing it, a basic income given to every adult in the EU paid for by taxes on the wealthy would be both useful and immediate.

Who are the wealthy who should pay for this and how much would you like to pay out?

# ? Feb 10, 2015 19:36

MiddleOne: Feb 17, 2011

A Buttery Pastry posted:

Ignoring the political difficulties of actually implementing it, a basic income given to every adult in the EU paid for by taxes on the wealthy would be both useful and immediate.

Costs of living across Europe vary way to much for that to in any way be workable.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 20:04

Badger of Basra: Jul 26, 2007

Xoidanor posted:

Costs of living across Europe vary way to much for that to in any way be workable.

Too bad no one thought of that when they decided on the Euro!

# ? Feb 10, 2015 20:05

MiddleOne: Feb 17, 2011

Badger of Basra posted:

Too bad no one thought of that when they decided on the Euro!

# ? Feb 10, 2015 20:09

DOCTOR ZIMBARDO: May 8, 2006

GaussianCopula posted:

Who are the wealthy who should pay for this and how much would you like to pay out?

Instead of defining it on wealth (easy to fudge, big differences across borders), why not define it based on their relationship to the means of production (easy to identify, discrete). And then apply a 100% tax on those assets and take them under control of workers' councils acting under color of state authority.

DOCTOR ZIMBARDO fucked around with this message at 20:31 on Feb 10, 2015

# ? Feb 10, 2015 20:15

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

double nine posted:

Even if you made the best, most equitable and most unbiased and just redistribution mechanism man could possibly create, it would still be targetted by the ~~racists~~ eurosceptics as giving money to those lazy Greek/Spaniards/Portuguese/Irish/Bulgarians/... Now this wouldn't be a problem if we had a political elite with a vision and sense of purpose, but we don't. We have an abundance of politicians and a massive lack of Statesmen.

Sure, but maybe people would be a bit less likely to listen when politicians would suggest getting rid of something which actually helped them out a lot too. I know some people will happily vote to get rid of something which benefits them immensely in the vain hope that they'll be rich some day, but how many people would support getting losing a guaranteed basic income so we could give bankers a tax cut?

GaussianCopula posted:

Who are the wealthy who should pay for this and how much would you like to pay out?

The people who benefit the most from the EU, namely the upper class, irrespective of nationality or citizenship. A Greek shipping mogul shouldn't get out based on being Greek, and a German nurse shouldn't pay for being German.

Xoidanor posted:

Costs of living across Europe vary way to much for that to in any way be workable.

If it absolutely had to be 100% equal in that regard, you could just adjust it according to cost of living on a country-by-country basis. I suppose that would make it slightly harder to argue against southern moochers, since people in the north would receive more money.

DOCTOR ZIMBARDO posted:

Instead of defining it on wealth (easy to fudge, big differences across borders), why not define it based on their relationship to the means of production (easy to identify, discrete). And then apply a 100% tax on those assets and take them under state control.

State control? The means of production should belong to the workers, not the state.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 20:22

DOCTOR ZIMBARDO: May 8, 2006

Of course, pardon my indiscretion.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 20:31

awesome-express: Dec 30, 2008

Badger of Basra posted:

Too bad no one thought of that when they decided on the Euro!

That's what the Maastricht criteria are for, but in its eternal wisdom Greece fudged those numbers so lolz

# ? Feb 10, 2015 20:44

Badger of Basra: Jul 26, 2007

awesome-express posted:

That's what the Maastricht criteria are for, but in its eternal wisdom Greece fudged those numbers so lolz

And in their eternal wisdom the Germans decided to accept them to the single currency.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 20:50

GaussianCopula: Jun 5, 2011; Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

I'd rather keep my free-market capitalism thank you very much.

It might not be implemented perfectly but it's better than communism.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 20:57

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

GaussianCopula posted:

I'd rather keep my free-market capitalism thank you very much.

It might not be implemented perfectly but it's better than communism.

Let's compromise on mixed-market socialism.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 21:20

hump day bitches!: Apr 3, 2011

Wasn't the Maastrich criteria effectively ignored by everyone during till the GFC and euroimplosion when suddenly it started to pop everywhere?

# ? Feb 10, 2015 21:44

Nektu: Jul 4, 2007; FUKKEN FUUUUUUCK; Cybernetic Crumb

awesome-express posted:

That's what the Maastricht criteria are for, but in its eternal wisdom Greece fudged those numbers so lolz

In the end you absolutely can hold the creators of the euro zone accountable for creating an ivory tower construction that started to creak ominously in the seams very shortly after life had a bit of opportunity to fling poo poo at it.

Two options were discussed: further the political unification of europe and THEN create a common currency as crown jewel, or create the currency first in the hope that that pushes along the political unification (even though there were numerous warnings that that poo poo would never fly). Their choice was the incorrect one and they hosed it up - europe is just moving further and further away from a political unification.

Nektu fucked around with this message at 21:56 on Feb 10, 2015

# ? Feb 10, 2015 21:48

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

the war of words is getting serious now: varoufakis is saying he's prepared to consider a "rupture" with the eurozone, while juncker has said "maybe this is the end of a common way with greece; we will not be blackmailed" and schaeuble more or less said "lol gtfo scrubs l2play"

e: the german analyst/commentator in this video is amazing http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-10/schaeuble-says-over-for-greece-unless-aid-program-accepted

LemonDrizzle fucked around with this message at 21:58 on Feb 10, 2015

# ? Feb 10, 2015 21:55

botany: Apr 27, 2013; by Lowtax

Nektu posted:

In the end you absolutely can hold the creators of the euro zone accountable for creating an ivory tower construction that started to creak ominously in the seams very shortly after life had a bit of opportunity to fling poo poo at it.

Two options were discussed: further the political unification of europe and THEN create a common currency as crown jewel, or create the currency first in the hope that that pushes along the political unification (even though there were numerous warnings that that poo poo would never fly). Their choice was the incorrect one and they hosed it up - europe is just moving further and further away from a political unification.

It's not just that they got the order of things wrong, it's more that creating a currency across a highly heterogenous economic area and then not giving the central currency issuer the powers to actually perform that job is loving stupid.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 22:00

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

I am predicting that we will reach peak Schaeuble in tomorrow's eurogroup meeting and he will just spend the entire session screaming "PAY YOUR DEBTS OR GET OUT OF MY CURRENCY ZONE YOU DISGUSTING SWARTHY DEGENERATES AAAAARGH" over and over again.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 22:04

Riso: Oct 11, 2008; by merry exmarx

For those who don't know, Schaeuble is a choleric.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 22:07

A Buttery Pastry: Sep 4, 2011; Delicious and Informative!

Lamadrid posted:

Wasn't the Maastrich criteria effectively ignored by everyone during till the GFC and euroimplosion when suddenly it started to pop everywhere?

Ignored, or the numbers were fudged by rather creative accounting. Greece stands out because of the level of fudging, but they were hardly alone. The Eurozone would have been something like Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Finland, if the criteria had been followed to the letter and no fudging had occurred.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 22:07

Freezer: Apr 20, 2001; The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

Nektu posted:

Two options were discussed: further the political unification of europe and THEN create a common currency as crown jewel, or create the currency first in the hope that that pushes along the political unification (even though there were numerous warnings that that poo poo would never fly). Their choice was the incorrect one and they hosed it up - europe is just moving further and further away from a political unification.

I've been wondering this myself, as it seems like further political integration is now pretty much dead in its tracks. Guess we'll have to see how the Grexit is handled, but I don't see any government in Europe jumping at the opportunity to cede more sovereignty to the EU. I really hope I'm wrong on this point...

# ? Feb 10, 2015 22:09

GaussianCopula: Jun 5, 2011; Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.

LemonDrizzle posted:

the war of words is getting serious now: varoufakis is saying he's prepared to consider a "rupture" with the eurozone, while juncker has said "maybe this is the end of a common way with greece; we will not be blackmailed" and schaeuble more or less said "lol gtfo scrubs l2play"

e: the german analyst/commentator in this video is amazing http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-10/schaeuble-says-over-for-greece-unless-aid-program-accepted

He is a Swiss who lives in the US, but yes he is pretty good on the issue.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 22:10

LemonDrizzle: Mar 28, 2012; neoliberal shithead

GaussianCopula posted:

He is a Swiss who lives in the US.

Oh, fair enough. In my defence, "Axel Merk" sounds pretty Teutonic.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 22:12

Riso: Oct 11, 2008; by merry exmarx

Are you implying the Swiss are not of noble Teutonic blood?

Countryballs: Switzerland is Germany on steroids.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 22:27

Disinterested: Jun 29, 2011; You look like you're still raking it in. Still killing 'em?

Switzerland is not a country. It's a bank with airports.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 22:30

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 18:17

CSM: Jan 29, 2014; 56th Motorized Infantry 'Mariupol' Brigade
Seh' die Welt in Trummern liegen

Gorau posted:

It's true. I doubt very many Greeks post on the forums. However. It is relatively simple. Greek wages exceed what they should be relative to productivity. Therefore one of three things need to happen.

. 1. The currency needs to devalue enough so that wages fall relative to international levels, reducing imports and raising exports. This has the advantage of devaluing internal production at the same time and applying to all people relatively equally. This means internal demand isn't affected, it's only external demand. This is why I thing Greece needs to exit the euro. It's very painful initially but long term is better for the country.

2. Greece finds someone to inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the capital stock of the country raising productivity to another by where wages a fully justified by productivity. This is not likely to happen. Normally this happens over long periods, as companies and people invest in capital stock. But to maintain current standards of living it needs to happen very quickly in Greece.

3. Greece needs to internally devalue all wages to where productivity is balanced with wages. This is the most painful option because it's right in people's face. It causes the most discontent and is usually the most fought option. However to remain in the euro zone it is the only option to restore Greece to a growth path. This option is the major problem with fixed exchange rates without a fiscal Union. With a fiscal union there are other levers to pull without touching wages. The major one being that higher levels of government can invest in the region, with the expectation that investments can be paid back in taxes.

If one of these three options is not followed you are going to get what is happening right now. If wages cannot fall quickly you will get a vicious cycle of layoffs as companies try to stay profitable, laying off what are viewed as unproductive workers and trying to keep productive ones. But this doesn't work, because the constant cycle of layoffs does destroy internal demand, causing falling revenues and more layoffs. This path, trying the maintain wages and standards of living as high as possible and refusing to adjust to reality is far more damaging in the long term than a quick and painful devaluation.

A fourth option would be much higher inflation in the rest of the Eurozone.

Lol, nevermind.

# ? Feb 10, 2015 23:14

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