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namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe

Lead out in cuffs posted:

50+ new posts this morning. It's happening isn't it? Is it happening?

Oh. Ooooh.

:yikes:

It's not happening.

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Kafka Esq.
Jan 1, 2005

"If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)
Does this mean you're gonna buy, CI?

Franks Happy Place
Mar 15, 2011

It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Kafka Esq. posted:

Does this mean you're gonna buy, CI?

I was wondering the same thing, ha.

triplexpac
Mar 24, 2007

Suck it
Two tears in a bucket
And then another thing
I'm not the one they'll try their luck with
Hit hard like brass knuckles
See your face through the turnbuckle dude
I got no love for you
CI is just convincing us all not to buy houses so he can buy them all and price us out of the market

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
http://business.financialpost.com/2015/02/10/why-china-poses-the-next-great-risk-for-a-deflationary-world/

quote:


China is trapped. The Communist authorities have discovered, like the Japanese in the early 1990s and the US in the inter-war years, that they cannot deflate a credit bubble safely.

China has edged out the West as the investment kingpin for the world — expect political influence to follow. Read on

A year of tight money from the People’s Bank and a $250-billion crackdown on shadow banking have together pushed the Chinese economy close to a debt-deflation crisis.

The surprise cut in the Reserve Requirement Ratio — the main policy tool — comes in the nick of time. Factory gate deflation has reached 3.3%. The official gauge of manufacturing fell below the “boom-bust” line to 49.8 in January.

Haibin Zhu from JP Morgan says the 50 point cut in the RRR cut from 20% to 19.5% injects roughly $100-billion into the system.

This will not itself change anything. The average one-year borrowing cost for Chinese companies has risen from zero to 5% in real terms over the last three years as a result of falling inflation. UBS said the debt-servicing burden for these firms has doubled from 7.5% to 15% of GDP.

Yet the cut marks an inflexion point. There will undoubtedly be a long series of cuts before China sweats out its hangover from a $26 trillion credit boom. Debt has risen from 100% to 250% of GDP in eight years. By comparison, Japan’s credit growth in the cycle preceding its Lost Decade was 50% of GDP.

The People’s Bank may have to cut all the way to zero in the end — a $4 trillion reserve of emergency oxygen — but to do that is to play the last card.

The trigger was an amber warning sign in the jobs market. The employment component of the manufacturing survey contracted for the 15th month. Premier Li Keqiang targets jobs — not growth — and the labour market is looking faintly ominous for the first time.

Unemployment is supposed to be 4.1%, a make-believe figure. A joint study by the International Monetary Fund and the International Labour Federation said it is really 6.3%, high enough to cause sleepless nights for a one-party regime dependent on ever-rising prosperity to replace the lost elan of revolutionary Maoism.

Whether or not you call it a hard-landing, China is struggling. Home prices fell 4.3% in December. New floor space started has slumped 30% on a three-month basis. This packs a macro-economic punch.

A study by Jun Nie and Guangye Cao for the U.S. Federal Reserve said that since 1998 property investment in China has risen from 4% to 15% of GDP, the same level as in Spain at the peak of the “burbuja” — the country’s house price bubble. The inventory overhang has risen to 18 months compared to 5.8 in the US.

The property slump is turning into a fiscal squeeze since land sales make up 25% of local government money. Zhiwei Zhang from Deutsche Bank says land revenues crashed 21% in the fourth quarter of last year. “The decline of fiscal revenue is the top risk in China and will lead to a sharp slowdown,” he said.

The IMF says China’s fiscal deficit is nearly 10% of GDP once land sales are stripped out and all spending included, far higher than generally supposed. It warned two years ago that Beijing was running out of room and could ultimately face “a severe credit crunch.”

The gears are shifting across the Chinese policy spectrum. Shanghai Securities News reports that 14 Chinese provinces are preparing a $2.4 trillion blitz on infrastructure to combat the downturn.

How much of this is new money remains to be seen but there is no doubt that Beijing is blinking. It may be right to do so — given the choice of poisons — yet such a course stores up even greater problems for the future. The China Development Research Council, Li Keqiang’s brain-trust, has been shouting from the rooftops that the country must take its post-debt punishment “as soon possible”.

China is not alone in facing this dilemma as deflation spreads and beggar-thy-neighbour currency wars become the norm. Fifteen central banks have eased monetary policy so far this year.

Denmark’s National Bank has cut rates three times in two weeks to minus of 0.5% to defend its euro-peg, the latest casualty of the European Central Bank’s euros 1.1 trillion quantitative easing. The Swiss central bank has been blown away.

Asia is already in a currency cauldron, eerily like the onset of the 1998 crisis. The Japanese yen has fallen by half against the Chinese yuan since Abenomics burst upon the Pacific Rim. Japanese exporters pocketed the windfall gains of devaluation at first to boost margins. Now they are cutting prices to gain export share, exporting deflation.

China’s yuan is loosely pegged to a rocketing US dollar. Its trade-weighted exchange rate has jumped by 10% since July. This is eroding the wafer-thin profit margins of Chinese companies and tightening monetary conditions into the downturn.

David Woo from Bank of America says Beijing may be forced to join the currency wars to defend itself, even though this variant of the “Prisoner’s Dilemma” leaves everybody worse off. “We view a meaningful yuan devaluation as a major tail-risk for the global economy,” he said.

If this were to happen, it would send a deflationary impulse worldwide. China spent $5 trillion on fixed investment last year, more than Europe and America combined, increasing its overcapacity in everything from shipping, to steels, chemicals, and solar panels, to even more unmanageable levels.
A yuan devaluation would dump this on everybody else. It would come at a moment when Europe is already in deflation at minus 0.6%, and when Britain and the U.S. are fast exhausting their inflation buffers as well.

Such a shock would be extremely hard to combat. Interest rates are already zero across the developed world. Five-year bond yields are negative in six European countries. These are no longer just 14th Century lows. They are unprecedented.

My own guess that we would have to tear up the script and start printing money to build roads, pay salaries, and fund a vast New Deal. This form of helicopter money or “fiscal dominance” may be dangerous, but not nearly as dangerous as the alternative.

China faces a Morton’s Fork. Li Keqiang has made it his life’s mission to stop his country drifting into the middle income trap. He says himself that the investment-led model of last 30 years is obsolete. The low-hanging fruit of catch-up growth has been picked. China passed the point of no return five years ago.


Welp

UnfortunateSexFart
May 18, 2008

𒃻 𒌓ð’‰𒋫 𒆷ð’€𒅅𒆷
𒆠𒂖 𒌉 𒌫 ð’®𒈠𒈾𒅗 𒂉 𒉡𒌒𒂉𒊑


etalian posted:

My solution:

All new condo constructions in Vancouver downtown must also build a new cemetery or hospice home next door.

Yeah my brother was showing me his new place in a tall suburban condo and I noticed everyone milling about was white, so I asked what that was about because you just don't see that south of the inlet. He said "you'll see" then opened his curtains to display a beautiful view of a giant old cemetery.

tsa
Feb 3, 2014

Furnaceface posted:

Didnt it only take 2-3 years for the biggest bubble cities in the USA to get hit? And thats with a way more robust economy than Canada.


Not really. If you are talking about how long it took for prices to return to what you would expect outside of bubbles... yea that whole process of deflating did take some time but as soon as the bubble "popped" the pain was nearly immediate. There's also the fact that things like the new owner tax rebate massively sustained the bubble artificially.

The whole "it took 2-3 years" is pretty misleading because from the average persons perspective the adjustment was pretty much overnight.

From a mortgage broker's perspective it was overnight. Like no joke there was one night where like half the subprimes went under.

peter banana
Sep 2, 2008

Feminism is a socialist, anti-family, political movement that encourages women to leave their husbands, kill their children, practice witchcraft, destroy capitalism and become lesbians.

People who post in the comments at greaterfool.ca (or really any bearish writing about the Canadian housing market) are always saying things like, "sure the housing market will crash...WHEN CHINA RUNS OUT OF MILLIONAIRES! LOL!"

tsa
Feb 3, 2014

Cultural Imperial posted:

shots fired from Scott Barlow, a Good Writer for the globe:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...rticle22888116/


Matthew C. Klein's article at ftalphaville:

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/02/10/2116771/yes-looser-credit-and-fraud-drove-the-housing-bubble/


tl;dr US housing meltdown happened because of mortgages not insured by fannie and freddie. Since most marginal lending is backstopped by the CMHC in Canada, it's unlikely that we'll have a housing meltdown of US proportions.

F and F actually required you to have a job with solid work history (going back 1 or 2 years), they just didn't give a poo poo about your credit very much so long as it was clean for the last 6 months or so. While they were of course much better loans than subprimes, they still allowed a pretty high dti ratio and allowed nearly 100% financing with a little creativity.

peter banana posted:

so places that went crazy will get hit hard and places that went up but stayed fairly normal will land softly? Is that the gist?

Ultimately you look at local incomes and local house prices. Do those seem sane or no? Of course even good areas are hit because credit gets frozen and so on but usually losses due to that are quickly recovered.

PT6A
Jan 5, 2006

Public school teachers are callous dictators who won't lift a finger to stop children from peeing in my plane
Why is Canada such a hot market for mainlanders to buy property in, compared to other options anyway? You can get an investor visa in Spain, for example, for a scant EUR500,000, and nicer properties are way, way cheaper. Plus, you then have a path to EU citizenship for yourself and your family, which, patriotism aside, is way more loving useful than Canadian citizenship.

If you're going to fly halfway around the world either way, why would you pick Vancouver over Madrid?

Lexicon
Jul 29, 2003

I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

PT6A posted:

Why is Canada such a hot market for mainlanders to buy property in, compared to other options anyway? You can get an investor visa in Spain, for example, for a scant EUR500,000, and nicer properties are way, way cheaper. Plus, you then have a path to EU citizenship for yourself and your family, which, patriotism aside, is way more loving useful than Canadian citizenship.

If you're going to fly halfway around the world either way, why would you pick Vancouver over Madrid?

This is a fantastic question.

Coylter
Aug 3, 2009
It's right on the other side of the small body of water they are used to living near to.

Baudin
Dec 31, 2009

PT6A posted:

If you're going to fly halfway around the world either way, why would you pick Vancouver over Madrid?

Which would you rather choose: a location that has an established community that shares your language and a lot of your traditions, or some other place where you're going to stick out like a sore thumb?

Ceciltron
Jan 11, 2007

Text BEEP to 43527 for the dancing robot!
Pillbug

PT6A posted:

Why is Canada such a hot market for mainlanders to buy property in, compared to other options anyway? You can get an investor visa in Spain, for example, for a scant EUR500,000, and nicer properties are way, way cheaper. Plus, you then have a path to EU citizenship for yourself and your family, which, patriotism aside, is way more loving useful than Canadian citizenship.

If you're going to fly halfway around the world either way, why would you pick Vancouver over Madrid?

It's odd but one of the main reasons is that 1. they are already here (usually people have friends or relatives and are aware of existing diaspora communities) and 2. we speak English. Many mainland chinese think that the terrible english education they get in school (which puts the french education you get outside of quebec to shame as far as incompetence and uselessness are concerned) will be sufficient for them to get jobs "in business/salesperson" or "as an office worker/lady". It's dream first, plan second.

There's also this insane kind of sort of manifest-destiny belief starting to spread over there where like, it is the supposed eventual dream of all to go to Canada. It's kind of hosed up. One of my girlfriend's college roommates' life goal was literally "find a foreigner, get pregnant from him, force him to bring her to Canada". Thankfully, this was the most...extreme case I've been told about. But it does very much remind me of the way North America was presented as the land of opportunity in Europe as a means of dumping population.

You can imagine how well such a plan would work, but that's the degree to which (some) people fetishise Canada over there.

Rick Rickshaw
Feb 21, 2007

I am not disappointed I lost the PGA Championship. Nope, I am not.

PT6A posted:

Why is Canada such a hot market for mainlanders to buy property in, compared to other options anyway? You can get an investor visa in Spain, for example, for a scant EUR500,000, and nicer properties are way, way cheaper. Plus, you then have a path to EU citizenship for yourself and your family, which, patriotism aside, is way more loving useful than Canadian citizenship.

If you're going to fly halfway around the world either way, why would you pick Vancouver over Madrid?

I think you're forgetting the "Hey I own that place" value of real estate. Anyone who owns anything loves to talk about what they own and where it is. It's way better if a Chinese Millionaire can tell a fellow Chinese Millionaire that he owns a property in a place that they can both relate to, as Coylter and Baudin pointed out.

My favourite example in my own life is from a recent dentist visit. My hygienist happened to live in my part of Halifax, and we started talking about real estate. We both own houses in the area. Then she said she also bought an investment property as well. Did I then go on to talk about my stock portfolio? No, that would be impolite. But she had no problem talking about her investment property, because society permits such a thing.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Basically language. While the older Chinese population of Vancouver primarily speaks Cantonese and the Taiwanese population speak mandarin and like 3 other dialects, most Chinese know enough mandarin to communicate with other members of the diaspora. The majority of Vietnamese are ethnic han and many of them speak Cantonese or mandarin. The smaller communities of Malaysian and south African Chinese mostly know enough mandarin to communicate.

No Singaporeans or thai chinese though. You can't actually make shitloads money in Vancouver so they take a pass. The only Indonesian Chinese who are here are just passing through until the next time they get massacred.

Seattle is starting to see huge amounts of mainlanders in Bellevue because theres a very popular Chinese soap opera set there.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

This is why I laugh heartily every time someone presents Russia as the boogeyman military threat of our time, because if we're headed back down the nuclear rabbit hole it will be China that's doing the knocking. Russia is a joke that can't feed it's army, China is a nightmare for anyone that pays attention to how warm things are getting.

Rich mainlanders are fleeing because they don't want to see their assets redistributed in an attempt to prop up that house of cards, and they don't want to see their children conscripted when the PRC finally decides to start something with India or whomever.

I recommend reading some Chinese history, btw, it's a deeply fascinating region and understanding why it's risen so high and then imploded into internicine warfare so many times is much more satisfying than relying on "lol retard genes and Mao".

Wasting
Apr 25, 2013

The next to go
Well, if CI has given up maybe I'll buy. I can afford it and am tired of not knocking down walls in my place.

I'm getting sick of the incessant nagging from everyone in my life. I'm certain it's a terrible financial decision, but I can't put a price on friends, family, and in laws finally shutting their loving mouth holes.

Sassafras
Dec 24, 2004

by Athanatos
.

Sassafras fucked around with this message at 09:11 on Feb 13, 2015

Baudin
Dec 31, 2009

Wasting posted:

Well, if CI has given up maybe I'll buy. I can afford it and am tired of not knocking down walls in my place.

I'm getting sick of the incessant nagging from everyone in my life. I'm certain it's a terrible financial decision, but I can't put a price on friends, family, and in laws finally shutting their loving mouth holes.

Make sure you run the numbers at a higher interest rate and/or with less income.

Lead out in cuffs
Sep 18, 2012

"That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."




Cultural Imperial posted:

south African Chinese

Yeah this was one of the more interesting bits of culture shock for me: I met more Chinese South Africans within a year of moving to Vancouver than in 25 years of living in South Africa.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

Reverse Centaur posted:

Yeah my brother was showing me his new place in a tall suburban condo and I noticed everyone milling about was white, so I asked what that was about because you just don't see that south of the inlet. He said "you'll see" then opened his curtains to display a beautiful view of a giant old cemetery.

Brave canadian ghosts keep greedy mainlanders from gentrifying neighborhood.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
Grimes' mom weighs in on CP wrecking the arbutus corridor

https://twitter.com/Garossino/status/565371068643549187

quote:

@YVRHousing We should admire when the well-heeled get their hands dirty making empty land productive. They're not hurting anyone...

for reference, the face of Vancouver West Side Affluenza



for just 10 cents a day you can avert this tragedy

namaste friends fucked around with this message at 06:29 on Feb 11, 2015

ocrumsprug
Sep 23, 2010

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-10/genworth-s-mcinerney-pressured-by-44-share-drop-in-three-months

quote:

Genworth Financial Inc. has lost 44 percent from the time it announced a reserve shortfall in November through Monday. That’s set up a test for Chief Executive Officer Tom McInerney when the insurer reports fourth-quarter results later Tuesday.

The CEO has to convince investors that the company has figured out the size of the hole at the long-term care coverage business, and that the gap won’t keep growing, overwhelming the insurer’s other businesses.

“Management has to be careful not to over-promise, and to get the markets comfortable with the fact that there’s some conservatism built into their reserve analysis,” said Sean Dargan, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. “It’s a long-term show-me story.”

Dargan estimated that Richmond, Virginia-based Genworth will record pretax costs of $495 million to add LTC reserves. JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Jimmy Bhullar projected the figure could be $300 million to $500 million, writing that it’s tough to calculate because companies have discretion in determining how much they need to hold for eventual claims.

“We are not overly confident in our estimate,” Bhullar said in a January research note. “We expect results to be marked by poor margins and recurring reserve hikes.”

Long-term care insurance helps pay for nursing-home stays and health aides. Genworth has been raising premiums for existing customers and tightening underwriting for new clients after underestimating claims costs. The company has also been hurt by low bond yields, limiting growth in funds set aside for future claims.

Genworth was one of my targets for shorting if poo poo got real, though I only would have been off by a couple of years.

ronpaulhappening.gif

MiddleOne
Feb 17, 2011

Cultural Imperial posted:

for reference, the face of Vancouver West Side Affluenza



for just 10 cents a day you can avert this tragedy

That's like 2 years of majo for one person, what the gently caress. :psyduck:

Ceciltron
Jan 11, 2007

Text BEEP to 43527 for the dancing robot!
Pillbug
I hope that mayo is gluten and cruelty free!

Vaginapocalypse
Mar 15, 2013

:qq: B-but it's so hard being white! Waaaaaagh! :qq:

Rime posted:

I recommend reading some Chinese history, btw, it's a deeply fascinating region and understanding why it's risen so high and then imploded into internicine warfare so many times is much more satisfying than relying on "lol retard genes and Mao".

LOL like white canadians would ever give up the chance to be racist hypocrites

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Brannock posted:

Mainland Chinese people, especially the ones who actually have the money to invest in Canada, share much more in common with Western whites than they do with actual downtrodden minorities who are victims of actual legit systematic racism. Most of the reasons White People are Great Satan also apply to the rich Chinese.

All the handwringing about the prejudice towards the Chinese is at best misplaced.

Hong Kongers on the other hand are displaced and downtr- ahahahaha

Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN

Vaginapocalypse posted:

LOL like white canadians would ever give up the chance to be racist hypocrites

I see that a new student has arrived at Cultural Imperial's dojo to be tutored in the ancient and inscrutable art of trolling CanPol and CanDebt threads. It is always a pleasure to see a new practitioner learning to align their Chi into the perfect poo poo post and I wish you luck in your future endeavours.

Vaginapocalypse
Mar 15, 2013

:qq: B-but it's so hard being white! Waaaaaagh! :qq:
Uh actually CI is anti-han pro-white so im more like the ken to his ryu biyatch

Lain Iwakura
Aug 5, 2004

The body exists only to verify one's own existence.

Taco Defender


have to wonder what the story is here

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

OSI bean dip posted:



have to wonder what the story is here

gonna own when desperate seller signs become common

Lain Iwakura
Aug 5, 2004

The body exists only to verify one's own existence.

Taco Defender

etalian posted:

gonna own when desperate seller signs become common

i went and dug into this posting a bit and the number is a voip line without an identifying cid (ie: "private number" when they call). if i were a gambling man, i'd expect it to be someone who lives overseas and rents it out but for whatever reason wants to rid themselves of it. i avoid these numbers like the plague when renting simply because it's likely an absentee owner

Lain Iwakura fucked around with this message at 01:14 on Feb 12, 2015

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
Why does it say 15,000$ down? Surely a desperate seller would want the whole thing paid for?

EoRaptor
Sep 13, 2003

by Fluffdaddy

Jumpingmanjim posted:

Why does it say 15,000$ down? Surely a desperate seller would want the whole thing paid for?

Any sort of seller financing is a scam, because it means the property will NOT pass title inspection, insurance inspection, appraisal or home inspection.

It allows the seller to 'prop-up' the price without responding to market conditions, and is therefore fraudulent.

This includes when a builder offers financing!

sbaldrick
Jul 19, 2006
Driven by Hate

Cultural Imperial posted:

Grimes' mom weighs in on CP wrecking the arbutus corridor

https://twitter.com/Garossino/status/565371068643549187


for reference, the face of Vancouver West Side Affluenza



for just 10 cents a day you can avert this tragedy

What the gently caress is wrong with this woman that's she's buying that much mayo and looks like a 100 buck a day crack head.

namaste friends
Sep 18, 2004

by Smythe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtH68PJIQLE

yeah baby

etalian
Mar 20, 2006


It was named the best song of 2012 on Pitchfork, which in 2014 also named it the best song of the decade as of August 2014

Kalenn Istarion
Nov 2, 2012

Maybe Senpai will finally notice me now that I've dropped :fivebux: on this snazzy av

OSI bean dip posted:

i went and dug into this posting a bit and the number is a voip line without an identifying cid (ie: "private number" when they call). if i were a gambling man, i'd expect it to be someone who lives overseas and rents it out but for whatever reason wants to rid themselves of it. i avoid these numbers like the plague when renting simply because it's likely an absentee owner

Actually there's been a scam around vancouver for a while now where someone advertises fake sales. I wouldn't be surprised if this is it.

Oh god I'm so desperate you can have my fire sale for only 15,000 oh but you need to pay in cash now no cheques.

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OhYeah
Jan 20, 2007

1. Currently the most prevalent form of decision-making in the western world

2. While you are correct in saying that the society owns

3. You have not for a second demonstrated here why

4. I love the way that you equate "state" with "bureaucracy". Is that how you really feel about the state

PT6A posted:

Why is Canada such a hot market for mainlanders to buy property in, compared to other options anyway? You can get an investor visa in Spain, for example, for a scant EUR500,000, and nicer properties are way, way cheaper. Plus, you then have a path to EU citizenship for yourself and your family, which, patriotism aside, is way more loving useful than Canadian citizenship.

If you're going to fly halfway around the world either way, why would you pick Vancouver over Madrid?

Forget Spain, Portugal is even cooler. Nice climate if you like it hot, nice people, great food. We went to Lisbon last summer and it was one of the best times we ever had. The older parts of Lisbon like Alfama are just terrific.

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