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First Solar! Holy poo poo what a great year.
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Feb 24, 2015 14:58
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FSLR announces yield co, shares up 10% pre-market, woo ha 
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Feb 24, 2015 14:58
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CSIQ, you know what must be done. Stop loving around.
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Feb 24, 2015 15:01
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I'm upside limited above 55 (my upside is in fact 0 above 55)....that is the only sour note of this news. And yeah looks good for CSIQ, although I think a yieldco is about 75% priced-in to the stock already. The buying of the projects in the UK means they are almost certainly going to announce one (not much reason to buy them other than a yieldco). Not announcing one will be a negative.
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Feb 24, 2015 15:04
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Uhh when should I sell my SPWR SUNE and CSIQ...I was planning on holding through the year but this is insane.
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Feb 24, 2015 15:51
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I was letting CSIQ ride with a trailing stop -3, tightened that up to -1.50 today. I don't have a good theory about where to get out at this point, but I'll happily take whatever profits I'll have when the stop gets hit.
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Feb 24, 2015 16:03
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I opened a position in TRN last week right before their Q4 earnings release. I'm up ~13%. The firm produces rolling stock used to transport commodities (e.g., oil) across the States. They had been on an upward trajectory for the past couple years due to growing demand for rolling stock plus expectations of updated regulatory requirements which would force users of tank cars etc. to purchase newer, safer versions. TRN also trades at a discount (multiples-wise) to peers like GBX and ARII. They took a big hit late last year due to a combination of falling oil prices and litigation related to one of their road products. I don't believe falling oil prices will have a material impact on their short or mid-term income given the huge backlog of demand for their products plus the fact that energy-related products represent a relatively small sliver of their revenues. I also don't believe the product failure lawsuit will hold up in appeals. I believe news related to that is coming out next month which may be the catalyst for further upside. They've set aside a billion dollars for the lawsuit so if it turns out well for them, they'll be free to throw that back into expanding or share repurchases. Anyone following them or have any thoughts?
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Feb 24, 2015 16:13
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:I was letting CSIQ ride with a trailing stop -3, tightened that up to -1.50 today. I don't have a good theory about where to get out at this point, but I'll happily take whatever profits I'll have when the stop gets hit. I'm in the same boat, a little tighter actually (my cost basis was closer to 22 as opposed to some goons who were cost basis under $20) at around $29.66. I will gladly take my 30%, didn't take VSLR out when it popped a month or two ago thinking i would ride it and now its just flat.
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Feb 24, 2015 16:40
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:I was letting CSIQ ride with a trailing stop -3, tightened that up to -1.50 today. I don't have a good theory about where to get out at this point, but I'll happily take whatever profits I'll have when the stop gets hit. In the same position CSIQ has been a great ride so far  . What's the hive minds opinion of SBUX been in for around a year with a 20%ish gain and thinking about jumping out soon. If only GOGO would turn around 
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Feb 24, 2015 16:44
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BBL has been a bit of a ride as well. I think oil and commodities in general will go back up in the near/mid term, BBL is big enough to weather the storm. Kinda wish I would have bought more a month ago.
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Feb 24, 2015 16:51
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Nephzinho posted:I'm in the same boat, a little tighter actually (my cost basis was closer to 22 as opposed to some goons who were cost basis under $20) at around $29.66. I will gladly take my 30%, didn't take VSLR out when it popped a month or two ago thinking i would ride it and now its just flat. I'm sticking with VSLR until it pops, if it ever does. No doubt it's risky, but by the same token I think it COULD easily double over the course of the next year. It's a mini-SolarCity, yet trades at a much lower multiple relative to the stats that drive those business. And while I am not a big fan of the lease/PPA business model, you can't ignore that their businesses are seeing explosive sales growth.
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Feb 24, 2015 17:09
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Reading this article from a few years ago about Solar farm REITs: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-01-21/solar-costs-to-fall-as-reits-emerge-as-source-of-funding Did that actually pan out? Are there any Solar farm REIT index funds out there? Hard to find much by googling.
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Feb 25, 2015 00:14
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Is CSIQ the new Apple in this thread? I don't see everyone's infatuation with it.
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Feb 25, 2015 04:18
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Is CSIQ the new Apple in this thread? I don't see everyone's infatuation with it. Well it's up over 50% since people started talking about it like 3-4 weeks ago. edit: closer to 60% than 50%. I sold puts against it and they expired worthless, but I would have been better off going long the stock (or buying calls obviously). I never expected it to explode 55%+ though. I thought it was a bargain at $19 or so but goddamn. sleepy gary fucked around with this message at 04:48 on Feb 25, 2015 |
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Feb 25, 2015 04:45
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DNova posted:Well it's up over 50% since people started talking about it like 3-4 weeks ago. It's a small cap company in a niche market, I am sure you can say the same about many similar stocks.
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Feb 25, 2015 06:05
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Is CSIQ the new Apple in this thread? I don't see everyone's infatuation with it. it's funny because I've seen you jump on the bandwagon with so many of these stocks but that said, no. it's not. I'm very familiar with the industry, and pretty familiar with the company (met with someone employed by canadian solar as recently as last week), and I don't know of any reason to be infatuated with the company in particular. the industry as a whole will continue blowing up though, and I'm very much long solar. I think JKS and SUNE are better plays personally.
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Feb 25, 2015 10:43
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Is CSIQ the new Apple in this thread? I don't see everyone's infatuation with it. There's a bunch of posters, myself included, who got in at a good time when it was significantly underpriced at ~$20. I don't think it's a particularly good deal at the current price; if you didn't already hold CSIQ it would not be a particularly great time to buy in. But those of us who did earlier are still going to smugly enjoy talking about this trade that is working out well for the time being. 
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Feb 25, 2015 14:51
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Cheesemaster200 posted:It's a small cap company in a niche market, I am sure you can say the same about many similar stocks. So why not post some of your ideas then? CSIQ was a good play because it was irrationally coupled with falling oil and there was huge upside potential with multiple potential short term catalysts. That's what we're all here for, after all.
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Feb 25, 2015 16:44
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neonbregna posted:In the same position CSIQ has been a great ride so far Looks like GOGO was listening...
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Feb 25, 2015 16:45
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So I signed up for robinhood and put a couple hundred in. This morning placed a trade for bioc, maximum number of shares allowed by the app for my account. The order was pending all day and I just got an email telling me my order was cancelled. It is kinda sad because the stock is going up and i didnt miss the ride up yet, it went up 30% today. Is it normal for brokers to cancel orders?
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Feb 25, 2015 23:00
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Did you place a limit order or market order?
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Feb 25, 2015 23:02
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It was a market buy. Could it be because the stock went up so high as soon as it opened? I placed the order 2 hours before the markets opened.
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Feb 25, 2015 23:08
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I would think that it depends on how much room there was between your market buy and your funds. For instance, you only had $500, and you wanted 10 shares of something at $49.5. If the stock gets up to $50.01 before you get in, you are still requesting 10 shares, it'll never fulfill your order because you dont have the funds.
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Feb 25, 2015 23:11
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A basic question since I'm still relatively new to this. Can someone recommend me a good desktop broker tool ? I usually use the one from my bank, which is kinda ok, but I want to check out what else is out there.
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Feb 26, 2015 00:19
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robinhood https://www.robinhood.com/signup?invite_code=APHRX5TA https://www.robinhood.com/signup?invite_code=TVDOZATJ https://www.robinhood.com/signup?invite_code=RUSRZ5GQ
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Feb 26, 2015 00:35
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mindphlux posted:it's funny because I've seen you jump on the bandwagon with so many of these stocks It's not about liking the company, it's about liking them at the price. I hate Walmart, it's a profitable company though. If they suddenly traded at a PE of 1, I would back the truck up.
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Feb 26, 2015 03:40
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Alright so what stock is stupidly mispriced now? Market as a whole trades at absurd multiples, so it's not exactly easy to find value. I saw mention today that ~every sector is above historical values (not sure if true). Only one seriously on my RADAR is HOS, an oil services company that trades at a deep discount to book, but I'm not quite ready to dive in yet given the volatility of oil prices and current oversupply of oil. The risk of getting in too soon weighs heavily.
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Feb 26, 2015 05:13
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Every asset on the entire planet is mispriced. Price discovery has been eradicated by central banks across the world. They've made sure that every sector index and stock index on the planet is being dragged higher every second of every day in every country. Just take a look at a list of indexes around the world. China, Japan, US, Europe, India, you name it is at the high of the day or a few ticks off all day everyday regardless of anything. Massive collusion at its finest and quite a spectacle to watch. Unfortunately it means that no where will be safe once whatever brings it down occurs.
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Feb 26, 2015 11:37
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zerohedge is leaking
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Feb 26, 2015 13:37
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Jack posted:Every asset on the entire planet is mispriced. Price discovery has been eradicated by central banks across the world. They've made sure that every sector index and stock index on the planet is being dragged higher every second of every day in every country. Just take a look at a list of indexes around the world. China, Japan, US, Europe, India, you name it is at the high of the day or a few ticks off all day everyday regardless of anything. Massive collusion at its finest and quite a spectacle to watch. Unfortunately it means that no where will be safe once whatever brings it down occurs. This time it's different
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Feb 26, 2015 13:54
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District Selectman posted:zerohedge is leaking Well I dunno about what he is talking about (seems like some world markets are underpriced, and plus currency fluctuations play a large role in those markets and the US dollar is booming)....but there's no doubt that the US stock market trades at perilous historical multiples. Which isn't to say that there will be a correction, because it's pretty drat hard to predict when the music will stop. I think the play here is to find cheap stocks that will be able to weather any storm that could occur in the short term, and to make sure you're not overexposed/unhedged.
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Feb 26, 2015 16:59
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Well, when a ten year Treasury is yielding less than 2%, SPY at an earnings yield of over 5% doesn't look too bad. But this year probably isn't going to be like years previous, where you could throw darts, buy whatever they landed on, and make money.
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Feb 26, 2015 17:29
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Jack posted:Every asset on the entire planet is mispriced. Price discovery has been eradicated by central banks across the world. They've made sure that every sector index and stock index on the planet is being dragged higher every second of every day in every country. Just take a look at a list of indexes around the world. China, Japan, US, Europe, India, you name it is at the high of the day or a few ticks off all day everyday regardless of anything. Massive collusion at its finest and quite a spectacle to watch. Unfortunately it means that no where will be safe once whatever brings it down occurs. Heeeeeeeeeeeeeere's Johhny!
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Feb 26, 2015 17:34
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Arkane posted:Well I dunno about what he is talking about (seems like some world markets are underpriced, and plus currency fluctuations play a large role in those markets and the US dollar is booming)....but there's no doubt that the US stock market trades at perilous historical multiples. Which isn't to say that there will be a correction, because it's pretty drat hard to predict when the music will stop. Look at any countries market index (SPY, DAX, FTSE, KOSPI, NIKKEI, Shanghai, ect.). Every last one of them is at the high of the day every day practically all day long. You can't tell me that every company on the planet is so undervalued everyday to where every market index on the planet has to be bought so aggressively to where they trade at the high of the day every day. It suggests massive price fixing on a global scale and thus a removal of honest price discovery. Under a system of price fixing nothing is cheap or expensive.
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Feb 26, 2015 17:42
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Agronox posted:Well, when a ten year Treasury is yielding less than 2%, SPY at an earnings yield of over 5% doesn't look too bad. The nutty thing is that me and my family are horrible monsters who actually wish for another 2008, cause now we finally have sufficient assets where investing blindly into a recovering market would double or triple our savings in a meaningful way (aka as in "never have to work again").
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Feb 26, 2015 17:45
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Jack posted:help me what is "number"
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Feb 26, 2015 17:47
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Jack posted:Look at any countries market index (SPY, DAX, FTSE, KOSPI, NIKKEI, Shanghai, ect.). Every last one of them is at the high of the day every day practically all day long. You can't tell me that every company on the planet is so undervalued everyday to where every market index on the planet has to be bought so aggressively to where they trade at the high of the day every day. It suggests massive price fixing on a global scale and thus a removal of honest price discovery. Under a system of price fixing nothing is cheap or expensive. Are they hitting P/E highs every day? Because merely seeing highs on valuation every day does not have to mean price fixing, it could also reflect rising global productivity and an expanding global economy.
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Feb 26, 2015 17:51
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P/E is a stupid metric as it can be manipulated by a number of accounting tricks. Revenue is a more accurate measure of things and if you look at revenue for the SPY its projected to decline, while the SPY is a tick under all time highs. I presume that would put the SPY p/s ratio at new highs everyday. I honestly haven't looked at revenue projections or p/s ratios elsewhere in the world but I can't imagine they're much better.
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Feb 26, 2015 18:00
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Here is a chart of global GDP: from the world bank quote:Dollar figures for GDP are converted from domestic currencies using single year official exchange rates. For a few countries where the official exchange rate does not reflect the rate effectively applied to actual foreign exchange transactions, an alternative conversion factor is used. Whether or not you accept P/E for a given company, I would think that P/E for entire markets is a reasonable metric, particularly over long periods of time. P/E appears to be high, but not horribly so, for the S&P 500:  Price earnings ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio), Shiller PE Ratio, or PE 10 source while the S&P 500 earnings appear to be in line with the historical trend:  S&P 500 Earnings Per Share. 12-month real earnings per share — inflation adjusted, constant December 2014 dollars. source (note the log scale) I'm not arguing that the indexes are definitely not overpriced, mind you: I'm only arguing that a global price-fixing conspiracy seems less likely of an explanation, than that global markets are evaluating the above data and behaving rationally as bulls.
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Feb 26, 2015 18:17
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quote:It suggests massive price fixing on a global scale and thus a removal of honest price discovery. If you can just arbitrarily change the price of a stock (through price-fixing witchcraft or whatever) you wouldn't have them go up every day all the time. You'd have them go up and down willy-nilly so that you could buy and sell and make lots of money. If you believe lots of stuff is overpriced, you could be right (heck, I agree for large swaths of the market). But if you're going to have a conspiracy behind it, that conspiracy needs a sensible motive or mechanism. quote:P/E is a stupid metric as it can be manipulated by a number of accounting tricks. Revenue is a more accurate measure of things and if you look at revenue I would like to know about some of these accounting tricks that you figure are being used, these ones that allow you to fudge your P/E (but apparently don't affect revenue). Maybe name a single specific company that you think is doing this, and where you think all those lies are accumulating on their balance sheet.
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Feb 26, 2015 18:35
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