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V. Illych L. posted:yes, because she wasn't expecting to need to campaign. she had most of the big donors sewn up, she had a good amount of support and inertia behind her, she was looking towards the general election - under the established Rules, the nomination was hers. then some dark horse candidate suddenly gained momentum - pretty much out of nowhere - and before she knew what the gently caress she was losing. it was arrogance and complacency, and she's not doing that again. When's the last time Clinton was in Iowa, and for how long?
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Mar 8, 2015 22:55
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Arkane posted:So...who? Against a damaged Clinton? Al Gore. Jean Shaheen. Tom Udall. Sherrod Brown. Ron Wyden. Maria Cantwell. John Hickenlooper. Mark Dayton. Christine Gregoire. John Lynch. Tom Vilsack. Remember, in this hypothetical they are only entering the race after Clinton has been sufficiently damaged by scandals or mistakes.
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Mar 8, 2015 22:57
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^^^^None of those B- and C-listers would be able to energize the base. It would be a throwaway election.Arkane posted:So...who? Your best bet for finding a politically viable non-Hilary candidate is Hollywood. Sean Penn was credible in 2008, nowadays it would probably be James Franco or Michael Keaton. SNAKES N CAKES fucked around with this message at 23:02 on Mar 8, 2015 |
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Mar 8, 2015 23:00
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No one will vote for a loving inexperienced celebrity.
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Mar 8, 2015 23:25
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No Clinton? Election's turning up Nixon!
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Mar 8, 2015 23:31
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Mitt Romney posted:She's not that brilliant. Look at how poorly she ran her 2008 campaign. I think that's a good indicator of how she'd run any organization, including running the country. Did she or her campaign even know how a caucus worked in 2008? All signs point to her hiring the same loyal idiots for 2016 and not the best people. Odds on Mark Penn getting hired again by Clinton?
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Mar 8, 2015 23:31
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V. Illych L. posted:yes, because she wasn't expecting to need to campaign. she had most of the big donors sewn up, she had a good amount of support and inertia behind her, she was looking towards the general election - under the established Rules, the nomination was hers. then some dark horse candidate suddenly gained momentum - pretty much out of nowhere - and before she knew what the gently caress she was losing. it was arrogance and complacency, and she's not doing that again. This... isn't what happened. Here's a headline from April 2007, 9 months before Iowa: Obama bests Clinton in primary fundraising and then he beat her again in Q2. A candidate that can best the country's most formidable fundraising operation two quarters in a row isn't a "dark horse". HRC had ample notice that the Obama campaign was for real.
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Mar 8, 2015 23:37
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Cliff Racer posted:No one will vote for a loving inexperienced celebrity. On the other hand I think president talking t.rex could really unify the country.
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Mar 8, 2015 23:37
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Pinterest Mom posted:This... isn't what happened. To be fair Obama sank pretty low in the polls over the summer and Clinton made up a lot of ground on fundraising and by most accounts won every debate, there were reasons for false hubris right up through December 2007, which is not to say that Clinton's team and Penn in particular didn't vastly underestimate Obama (and managed their war chest terribly). DynamicSloth fucked around with this message at 23:50 on Mar 8, 2015 |
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Mar 8, 2015 23:45
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So let me get this right in my head. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. From both sides of the aisle the only even remotely viable candidate is Hillary Clinton? The right is full of crabs failing to climb out of a bucket and the left is Hillary Clinton and I don't know some other people I guess.
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Mar 8, 2015 23:49
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ToxicSlurpee posted:So let me get this right in my head. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. Pretty much, with the caveat that most of the Dems aren't even trying because it's Hillary.
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Mar 8, 2015 23:52
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ToxicSlurpee posted:So let me get this right in my head. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. Anyone who thinks that Clinton is a shoo-in for the general is an idiot. There are plenty of people on the Republican side who could plausibly win the general - Walker, Bush, Rubio, Christie, Kasich - and you can't predict the results of an election 19 months in advance.
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Mar 8, 2015 23:55
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The Republicans will eat each other up in the primaries (again) and whoever survives will have no loving chance against Hillary.
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Mar 8, 2015 23:57
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i will laugh and laugh and laugh if you lot manage to vote walker into the white house then i might kill myself, but i'll have a nice hearty laugh before i do
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Mar 8, 2015 23:58
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The people who grew up during Bill's presidency are old enough to vote and we miss the way things used to be 
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Mar 8, 2015 23:59
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AsInHowe posted:Mouse is a social conservative and fiscal libertarian. He has no chance of winning anything outside of a deep red House district. Bugs/Daffy '16 My Imaginary GF posted:if we are adopting necromonger, corpse of Reagan with VP Elanoor Roosevelt wins the democratic nomination. 
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Mar 9, 2015 00:00
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Pinterest Mom posted:Anyone who thinks that Clinton is a shoo-in for the general is an idiot. There are plenty of people on the Republican side who could plausibly win the general - Walker, Bush, Rubio, Christie, Kasich - and you can't predict the results of an election 19 months in advance. Completely correct. Hillary appears to have a couple of structural advantages right now: (1) if the Obama coalition turns out in 2016 as it did in 2008 and 2012 there's not much a Republican challenger can do to win, and (2) the US economy appears to be on a positive swing, which favors the incumbent party in elections. But that's not to say she has a lock and there's a very big question mark around whether she can turn out the vote as Obama did.
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Mar 9, 2015 00:00
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Pinterest Mom posted:Anyone who thinks that Clinton is a shoo-in for the general is an idiot. There are plenty of people on the Republican side who could plausibly win the general - Walker, Bush, Rubio, Christie, Kasich - and you can't predict the results of an election 19 months in advance. Rubio, Christie, really? How are they supposed to make it through their own primaries without getting hamstrung? Much less trying to sell themselves nationally. Same goes for Walker, and nobody cares about Kasich. Ignite Memories posted:The people who grew up during Bill's presidency are old enough to vote and we miss the way things used to be This can't be emphasized enough.
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Mar 9, 2015 00:02
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Pinterest Mom posted:Anyone who thinks that Clinton is a shoo-in for the general is an idiot. There are plenty of people on the Republican side who could plausibly win the general - Walker, Bush, Rubio, Christie, Kasich - and you can't predict the results of an election 19 months in advance. Walker could plausibly win the general if he was running against a potato, maybe
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Mar 9, 2015 00:18
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Sharkie posted:Rubio, Christie, really? How are they supposed to make it through their own primaries without getting hamstrung? Much less trying to sell themselves nationally. Same goes for Walker, and nobody cares about Kasich. I don't know exactly how a non-crazy person is going to make it through the primaries, but it shouldn't be too hard to imagine - McCain and Romney weren't exactly firebreathing conservatives. It's very plausible that with a GOP field that's not as bonkers as last time (the debate stage will have several people on it that are actually Serious, unlike 2012's travelling circus), a GOP base that might value winning more than purity, and with the right mix of circumstances and issues popping up between now and Iowa, someone makes it through unscathed and unelectable. And a successful, relatively popular two-term governor of a crucial swing with federal legislative experience? Is someone you want to take seriously.
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Mar 9, 2015 00:20
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Ignite Memories posted:The people who grew up during Bill's presidency are old enough to vote and we miss the way things used to be In 3 years it will be "anyone born during Bill's presidency".
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Mar 9, 2015 00:22
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420DD Butts posted:Walker could plausibly win the general if he was running against a potato, maybe Depends on the potato really
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Mar 9, 2015 00:26
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What's been clear in every 21st century American Presidential election is that the country is divided on partisan lines and that the result comes down to turnout. It doesn't really matter if the Republicans nominate Walker, Kasich, or Christie, anyone in their broad ideological spectrum starts off with 45% of the vote as does the Democratic nominee, whether that's Hillary (which it will be) or Biden, or O'Malley (which it won't be). The only things that can change this is if one of the parties nominates a candidate outside of their ideological lines. Rand flirts with that line, as does Jeb, Warren doesn't (she's well within orthodoxy), Bernie is well outside of the line.
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Mar 9, 2015 00:38
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Also I don't think people are paying enough attention to Mr. Clinton. He'll probably be keeping a very low profile but he's going to be in the back of everyone's minds, and the few moments he's allowed in front of a camera are going to be golden in terms of energizing the base.
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Mar 9, 2015 00:42
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Sharkie posted:Mr. Clinton. ... keeping a very low profile heh
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Mar 9, 2015 00:43
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mooyashi posted:heh Relatively speaking. But that's just my hunch.
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Mar 9, 2015 00:47
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Why wouldn't the Obama coalition turn out for Hillary? I don't see any numbers that show here being particularly unliked in any significant corner of the Democratic electorate, the fact that she has white skin will give her a boost in Greater Appalachia where Obama's white support tanked, and the electorate will be 3-4 percentage points less white than it was in 2008. Even if she runs a bad, back-to-the-1990s neoliberal campaign I don't see it hurting her too much - the guy who won in '08 did it on the basis of promising to bring Red and Blue America together and heal the breach and move us forward together and all that bargle. Hillary has a chance to mobilize large numbers of non-political or weakly partisan women into voting for her. The window for the traditional Republican coalition to win the presidency probably shut for good in 2008; there just aren't enough white people in the electorate to propel a Republican candidate to 270 electoral votes, barring some sort of outlier event (Watergate-scale scandal, Great Recession pt. II, Dem coalition split and spoiler candidate, etc.). And none of the potential Republican nominees seems like a world-beater, either - not even the putative members of their A-tier (Bush, Walker, etc.). The most likely thing that would keep Hillary from taking the oath of office on 1/20/2017 would be the emergence of a serious health issue, which is my biggest fear right now. FMguru fucked around with this message at 03:01 on Mar 9, 2015 |
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Mar 9, 2015 00:52
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Joementum posted:But that's not to say she has a lock and there's a very big question mark around whether she can turn out the vote as Obama did. Do you expect Obama to be out campaigning or at least rallying the troops? I assume that if the economy is holding together and we don't invade (or re-invade) some country, he would be. When was the last time we actually had the sitting president campaigning for their parties candidate? Clinton didn't really (which was a mistake), Reagan couldn't, Carter was a 1-termer as was Ford, Nixon got tossed, LBJ wasn't well liked, JFK died, so we have to go back pretty far I guess.
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Mar 9, 2015 00:52
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FMguru posted:Why wouldn't the Obama coalition turn out for Hillary? They didn't turn out for Kerry in 2004.
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Mar 9, 2015 00:53
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Bill kept an exceedingly low profile in the '08 campaign until Hillary lost Iowa.
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Mar 9, 2015 00:53
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FMguru posted:Why wouldn't the Obama coalition turn out for Hillary? I don't see any numbers that show here being particularly unliked in any significant corner of the Democratic electorate, the fact that she has white skin will give her a boost in Greater Appalachia where Obama's white support tanked, and the electorate will be 3-4 percentage points less white than it was in 2008. Even if she runs a bad, back-to-the-1990s neoliberal campaign I don't see it hurting her too much - the guy who won in '08 did it on the basis of promising to bring Red and Blue America together and heal the breach and move us forward together and all that bargle. Hillary has a chance to mobilize large numbers of non-political or weakly partisan women into voting for her. Republicans aren't going to be demographically shut out of the presidency for another few cycles. A recession isn't necessary. The most charismatic candidate that doesn't publicly self-destruct will win the general. That's America.
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Mar 9, 2015 00:56
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Joementum posted:They didn't turn out for Kerry in 2004. Voter turnout was higher in 2004 than 2012 and Kerry only got ~5% fewer of the black vote (Hispanics were more divided but that was a different time).
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Mar 9, 2015 01:13
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ZeeToo posted:If global cooling, why is it warm here? That's what Lindsey Graham said, in a craigslist email he didn't send.
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Mar 9, 2015 01:21
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There isn't a single Republican primary canadite at this point who has a snowball chance in hell versus even someone like Joe Biden. Versus a literal potato head like Walker; Biden could just make fart sounds with his armpit every time he's asked a question by the press and still win.
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Mar 9, 2015 01:21
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Venom Snake posted:There isn't a single Republican primary canadite at this point who has a snowball chance in hell versus even someone like Joe Biden. Versus a literal potato head like Walker; Biden could just make fart sounds with his armpit every time he's asked a question by the press and still win. I think you are overestimating the american electorate a Republican can win in 2016 it's not likely versus Hillary, but it's probably a pretty near thing against any other plausible democratic candidate. Mostly I'm just scared of Presidential Nominee Tom Cotton in 2024.
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Mar 9, 2015 01:27
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Good Citizen posted:Republicans aren't going to be demographically shut out of the presidency for another few cycles. A recession isn't necessary. The most charismatic candidate that doesn't publicly self-destruct will win the general. That's America. Scott Walker will collapse the moment the national eye turns to the ruination of Wisconsin. Marco Rubio is charismatic and "moderate" enough to appeal to "independent voters." He's also going to have the everloving poo poo primaried out of him. Everyone else is a joke. It's Hilary's race to lose.
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Mar 9, 2015 01:28
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SpiderHyphenMan posted:Jeb Bush will collapse the moment someone asks him to differentiate himself from his brother. Some had already asked Jeb about his brother. He's not his brother. End of conversation, its a non-starter.
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Mar 9, 2015 01:32
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My Imaginary GF posted:Some had already asked Jeb about his brother. He's not his brother. End of conversation, its a non-starter.
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Mar 9, 2015 01:34
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SpiderHyphenMan posted:Jeb Bush will collapse the moment someone asks him to differentiate himself from his brother. I don't disagree with any of this besides the Jeb thing. He does better confronting the accusations directly than he does dealing with the unspoken perception that he's very much like his brother. But yeah the GOP lineup doesn't match up well against Hilary. A number of things could still remove her from the race, though, and then things get close
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Mar 9, 2015 01:36
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Good Citizen posted:I don't disagree with any of this besides the Jeb thing. He does better confronting the accusations directly than he does dealing with the unspoken perception that he's very much like his brother. He can "confront" it all he wants, if the Dems aren't pants on head stupid they will trot out things like this: 
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