|
SpiderHyphenMan posted:"How would your domestic and foreign policy differ from that of the previous Republican administration?" "We're not here to talk about things that happened over a decade ago, we're here to talk about Clinton's plans to continue Obama's failures in domestic and foreign policy. Now, The Clinton/Obama agenda looks like this: [ramble continues for 4 minutes]" Come on son, that's like cornholer level dodge material.
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 01:50
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 14, 2024 23:45 |
|
|
SpiderHyphenMan posted:It's Hilary's race to lose. Since the first democratic election of a President in Washington, America's history has defined two more remaining major milestones for the American Presidency: The first elected person of colour, and the first elected woman. In 2008, the seemingly further off milestone was achieved by an upstart, narrowing her window of opportunity. In 2016, she won't make the same mistake twice. 
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 01:51
|
|
|
What are the chances Hillary doesn't run at this point?
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 01:56
|
|
|
icantfindaname posted:What are the chances Hillary doesn't run at this point? Unless a health issue or gigantic scandal knocks her out, 100%.
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 01:59
|
|
|
icantfindaname posted:What are the chances Hillary doesn't run at this point? Look up actuarial tables for someone her age contracting a debilitating illness within the next year and a half. Those are the chances
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 02:00
|
|
|
icantfindaname posted:What are the chances Hillary doesn't run at this point? Hillary is running for President already, so zero.
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 02:05
|
|
|
icantfindaname posted:What are the chances Hillary doesn't run at this point? You're asking the chance of a Clinton campaign implosion. I'd give it 25/75 odds.
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 02:08
|
|
|
My Imaginary GF posted:You're asking the chance of a Clinton campaign implosion. I'd give it 25/75 odds. So.. um... 1/3rd? AreWeDrunkYet posted:He can "confront" it all he wants, if the Dems aren't pants on head stupid they will trot out things like this: Nobody gives a gently caress about campaign advisers unless they are literal KKK members. The electorate doesn't remember who any of those people are. As well, accusations that Jeb will be just like W, even if they are based on real concerns that go deeper than his last name, are going to get lost in the noise. All Jeb has to say is, "Democrats have so little ammunition against me that they are still obsessed with my brother."
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 03:09
|
|
|
Idk, you cant just dodge around "did you hire for your staff the man who is widely credited as being the major developer of the Bush Doctrine?"
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 03:15
|
|
|
Scrub-Niggurath posted:Idk, you cant just dodge around "did you hire for your staff the man who is widely credited as being the major developer of the Bush Doctrine?" "No, as you know, I did not hire my brother who was the developer of the Bush Doctrine."
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 03:26
|
|
|
Scrub-Niggurath posted:Idk, you cant just dodge around "did you hire for your staff the man who is widely credited as being the major developer of the Bush Doctrine?" 'As I've said, I'm my own man, and I'm willing to go on the record and say I have no intent to hire George on staff, just as George has no intent to serve in the White House ever again. Now instead of talking about decade old policies, lets talk about the Obama-Clinton agenda that's being put before the voters in this election.'
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 03:33
|
|
|
FMguru posted:Why wouldn't the Obama coalition turn out for Hillary? If for whatever reason OFA doesn't share their database with the Clinton campaign, the same way they never shared it with state parties forcing them to do GOTV from scratch. quote:I don't see any numbers that show here being particularly unliked in any significant corner of the Democratic electorate, the fact that she has white skin will give her a boost in Greater Appalachia where Obama's white support tanked, This might have been true 8 years ago, but the relatively few white Appalachian voters who might have gone for Hillary in the general back then are a lost cause at this point. Scrub-Niggurath posted:Idk, you cant just dodge around "did you hire for your staff the man who is widely credited as being the major developer of the Bush Doctrine?" If GOB's gonna get done it'll be in the primary because he's on video speaking illegal and he's married to one of them. It's already haunting him in Iowa, and even Walker's had to dance the dance lately to build off his sudden name recognition. Alec Bald Snatch fucked around with this message at 03:39 on Mar 9, 2015 |
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 03:35
|
|
|
comes along bort posted:If for whatever reason OFA doesn't share their database with the Clinton campaign, the same way they never shared it with state parties forcing them to do GOTV from scratch.  That seems like an incredible way to cripple Democratic candidates' campaigns last year.
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 03:38
|
|
|
comes along bort posted:This might have been true 8 years ago, but the relatively few white Appalachian voters who might have gone for Hillary in the general back then are a lost cause at this point. *raises paw*
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 03:38
|
|
|
Jerry Manderbilt posted:
OFA's db is out in the wild now, and yes, it was, last year, 2010, and 2012.
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 03:40
|
|
|
Moreover the Appalachian populations are either in states which electorally don't matter (WV, KY, TN) or there's not enough of them to overcome the urban populations (OH, VA, NC).
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 03:41
|
|
|
Scrub-Niggurath posted:Idk, you cant just dodge around "did you hire for your staff the man who is widely credited as being the major developer of the Bush Doctrine?"
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 03:45
|
|
|
Scrub-Niggurath posted:Idk, you cant just dodge around "did you hire for your staff the man who is widely credited as being the major developer of the Bush Doctrine?" voters in a general election don't think of campaigns that way They don't think of the candidate as the potential head of a massive executive team which will craft the nation's policy: Its not "which of these broad party apparatus and ideological frameworks do you trust to keep the country on the right track", its "Which of these people do you want sitting in the chair?" Adviser choices could potentially matter in a primary, where voters are more engaged and ideologically extreme, but the only GoP primary voters who will find Jeb's foreign policy team a big turn-off are people who are locked in to voting for Rand Paul already. comes along bort posted:
Nobody (cept maybe jim webb) is suggesting that it would be a good idea to go all-out in campaigning for white appalachian voters and try to return to the New Deal glory days where you could travel the length of the Appalachians without coming within ten miles of a registered Republican, nor will Hillary do what Bill did and sweep the Mid-South on the strength of the rural poor. But she will improve on Obama's performance there by a few points, just by the default of being white, and this will help to shore up PA, OH and VA (the states Hillary needs to hold) against a moderate drop in minority turnout. She is still hosed without good minority turnout and good margins among urban professionals, but she doesn't need to perform quite as well as Obama in those areas to win. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 03:56 on Mar 9, 2015 |
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 03:46
|
|
|
think of Jeb's "I'm my own man" branding effort this way: it allows distance to his brother, while also enabling attacks on the Obama-Clinton Agenda without opening him up to appearing like a hypocrit
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 04:19
|
|
|
comes along bort posted:If for whatever reason OFA doesn't share their database with the Clinton campaign, the same way they never shared it with state parties forcing them to do GOTV from scratch. I had access to the OFA database for a state auditor campaign last year. I did sub-precinct granularity targeting from it. It is definitely available. And Hilary has already brought on the data and management staff that assembled the Obama coalition, specifically to be able to get it out to vote in 2016
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 05:29
|
|
|
Venom Snake posted:There isn't a single Republican primary canadite at this point who has a snowball chance in hell versus even someone like Joe Biden. Versus a literal potato head like Walker; Biden could just make fart sounds with his armpit every time he's asked a question by the press and still win. I fail to see any situation where that would not just sway over voters and increase his turnout. My Imaginary GF posted:'As I've said, I'm my own man, and I'm willing to go on the record and say I have no intent to hire George on staff, just as George has no intent to serve in the White House ever again. Now instead of talking about decade old policies, lets talk about the Obama-Clinton agenda that's being put before the voters in this election.' Yes, this is an answer that will allow him to placate the press, and do absolutely sweet gently caress all to dissuade the fears of anyone who remembers 2001-2008 and wants no part of that poo poo ever again. THAT is the hurdle he is overcoming, pure gut reaction - that people see the name Clinton, they say "gently caress yeah", and people see the name Bush and scream "gently caress NO!". Throwing out buzzwords and a half hearted spin will not fix that problem, he needs a substantial effort to convince people he is not going to be just like his brother. Which will be difficult, because he is. Republicans have managed to half rehabilitate Bush in their own base, but thats an uphill battle and still huge baggage. Among swing voters and independents, not a goddamn chance are you rehabilitating that. And trying to distract people by saying "Hey look, OBAMA!" won't work, because people will be reminded of it every single time his name is uttered or shown on screen. So unless he wants to be the first candidate since Eisenhower to run on his first name only, he's got no chance of evading the issue.
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 05:37
|
|
|
Fulchrum posted:So unless he wants to be the first candidate since Eisenhower to run on his first name only, he's got no chance of evading the issue.
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 05:39
|
|
|
Fulchrum posted:Yes, this is an answer that will allow him to placate the press, and do absolutely sweet gently caress all to dissuade the fears of anyone who remembers 2001-2008 and wants no part of that poo poo ever again. THAT is the hurdle he is overcoming, pure gut reaction - that people see the name Clinton, they say "gently caress yeah", and people see the name Bush and scream "gently caress NO!". Throwing out buzzwords and a half hearted spin will not fix that problem, he needs a substantial effort to convince people he is not going to be just like his brother. Which will be difficult, because he is. One would also think "Look which party spent years hunting bin Laden and which party killed him" would be an effective retort against trying to sell Bush again to the general public.
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 05:40
|
|
|
I would definitely frame it as "let bin laden stay free to terrorize the world for nearly a decade" when referring to that aspect of the Bush admin.
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 05:46
|
|
|
Cythereal posted:One would also think "Look which party spent years hunting bin Laden and which party killed him" would be an effective retort against trying to sell Bush again to the general public. "ISIS would've never arisen under a Republican administration." e: "I'm Jeb Bush, and I'm here to say: I will torture terrorists. Without torturing terrorists, we would have never killed OBL. Obama-Clinton want to end torture of terrorists."
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 05:48
|
|
|
comes along bort posted:If for whatever reason OFA doesn't share their database with the Clinton campaign, the same way they never shared it with state parties forcing them to do GOTV from scratch. The Quinn campaign in IL had lists of all of the OFA volunteers, I'm sure they weren't the only ones.
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 05:50
|
|
|
The X-man cometh posted:The Quinn campaign in IL had lists of all of the OFA volunteers, I'm sure they weren't the only ones. Those lists don't matter, what matters is the OFA donor db and candidates using it with Obama to make surrogate calls. Also, you have my deepest sympathies for working on Quinn 2014. I've heard all I can take about your disorganized operations.
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 05:52
|
|
|
I to, take the posts of noted Chicago mayor Rahm Emmanuel seriously.
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 06:00
|
|
|
Fulchrum posted:people see the name Clinton, they say "gently caress yeah", and people see the name Bush and scream "gently caress NO!". I honestly think that's what 2016 is going to come down to. Yeah both parties have their bases, but this sort of gut reaction will be enough to tip the scales, especially with getting younger voters motivated by sheer irrational 90s childhood nostalgia (plus the loathing of the early 2000s) to come out and vote. It sounds reductive, and it is, but I think that's what it will come down to. Assuming that Bush is the nom, which is looking increasingly likely.
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 06:07
|
|
|
For once, pure, instinctual gut reaction is going in the Democrats favor. So is the rational argument, but the former is rarer.
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 06:35
|
|
|
Good odds Rahm replaces a damaged Hillary after dispatching "Chewy."
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 13:21
|
|
|
Hillary's chances are so good that she should run her primary on the fact that she's very likely to win. An 'inevitability' campaign of sorts.
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 13:30
|
|
|
My Imaginary GF posted:"ISIS would've never arisen under a Ba'ath administration." Fixed? Saddam, awful as he was, would've crushed daesh before twitter was even a thing. But the last Bush had to go I know, it's not a good narrative because it proposes Saddam should have been left in power, but daesh kinda did arise under a Republican administration, at least indirectly, didn't they?
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 13:42
|
|
|
Who is going to be HRC's VP?
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 14:23
|
|
|
Fulchrum posted:So unless he wants to be the first candidate since Eisenhower to run on his first name only, he's got no chance of evading the issue. 
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 14:38
|
|
|
How soon we forget  
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 14:45
|
|
|
meristem posted:Who is going to be HRC's VP? Biden will be our VP for the next 20 years.
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 14:56
|
|
|
meristem posted:Who is going to be HRC's VP? Al Gore 
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 14:58
|
|
|
Joementum posted:How soon we forget Not that it's a good look for anyone, but Lamar! and Jeb! are among two of the most hilarious names possible to get the exclamation mark treatment. I want to see local election signs for Agnes! or Caitlyn!
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 15:20
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 14, 2024 23:45 |
|
|
Joementum posted:How soon we forget That "Lamar walked here" sign still hasn't been taken down to this day 
|
|
#
?
Mar 9, 2015 15:42
|
|
