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Lumber Liquidators up big today. Did anyone actually play it or were you, like me, exclusively a spectator?
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Mar 12, 2015 17:33
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M_Gargantua posted:I had a limit order that filed as it was dropping. Still overpaid. In at $18.12 for a taste.
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Mar 12, 2015 18:55
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Agronox posted:Lumber Liquidators up big today. Did anyone actually play it or were you, like me, exclusively a spectator? Was tempted to buy it for a bounce, but it seemed way too risky and so I sat out. It has soared back above even my most sanguine expectations. Hats off to whoever bought expecting a quick recovery. Condolences to whoever gambled on a continued free fall.
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Mar 12, 2015 20:20
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I'm staying in on ANR.......its gonna bounce back to 1.30..........
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Mar 12, 2015 20:32
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Do long ellipses indicate pausing for prayer?
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Mar 12, 2015 21:15
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LL will probably take a while to litigate. It'll be a long term case if anything does happen.
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Mar 12, 2015 21:16
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hike posted:LL will probably take a while to litigate. It'll be a long term case if anything does happen. Sales declines will be the first impact. This is a growth company that was priced at a growth multiple (although that has changed with the share decline). In the conference call today, they talked about a ~10% hit to sales following the story. They think that will lessen over time. I guess we'll see.
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Mar 12, 2015 21:35
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Agronox posted:Do long ellipses indicate pausing for prayer? They do.
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Mar 12, 2015 21:44
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Top Bunk Wanker posted:Thank you, to the EBIX suggesting man.
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Mar 13, 2015 14:40
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Hello money, my old friend
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Mar 13, 2015 14:50
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NXPI continues killing it.
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Mar 13, 2015 14:59
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District Selectman posted:Hello money, my old friend Thanks for the heads up! Got in on some Mar 20 26 calls at 0.50 earlier this week.
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Mar 13, 2015 16:57
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I am considering doing the following trade and have been doing some spreadsheeting: Buy YHOO 750 shares (Buy to open) Sell BABA 393 shares (Sell to open) Assumption: YHOO currently moves with BABA at 0.7. The only two cases I lose money are: BABA down and YHOO goes down at their correlation level. Minimal loss BABA stays or goes up and YHOO down. Of those, the second is very unlikely. After YHOO splits off the BABA, I don't see how the value case for YHOO's sum of parts keeps the price down where it is. Worst realistic case, BABA gets valued $60, YHOO share spinoff doesn't happen and I am out $3,000 + whatever losses YHOO takes in the deal. I don't see my potential losses exceeding $3-4,000 with potential gains of up to $10,000.
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Mar 13, 2015 17:09
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I'm loving the kind of diversification robinhood allows without having a huge account, and it's been treating me very well over the last 2 months, but man is it painful waiting 3 days for funds to settle
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Mar 13, 2015 17:09
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greasyhands posted:I'm loving the kind of diversification robinhood allows without having a huge account, and it's been treating me very well over the last 2 months, but man is it painful waiting 3 days for funds to settle I'd rather just pay the $5 for commission than waiting 3 days for my funds. But that's just me.
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Mar 13, 2015 17:23
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nollij posted:I am considering doing the following trade and have been doing some spreadsheeting: This would've been a great trade a few months ago...I think there's a couple of challenges here. You'll face costs of borrowing BABA. You should quantify that. The second is the opportunity cost. Using your own numbers, you're making a $64k bet with a maximal payout of $10k over many months (you're looking at potentially at least 9 months here). You anticipate a maximum of a 6% loss, but you've also capped yourself at a 15.5% gain (both numbers will change slightly with borrow costs). You could potentially find a better trade than this that has the potential to deliver higher returns over that time period. For instance, that wouldn't be that much outperformance versus the annualized average returns of the S&P at the top end of profit potential.
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Mar 13, 2015 17:46
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Isn't there a prohibition on using unsettled funds to trade with (or selling securities purchased with unsettled funds before the settlement date)?
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Mar 13, 2015 17:52
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Phil Moscowitz posted:Isn't there a prohibition on using unsettled funds to trade with (or selling securities purchased with unsettled funds before the settlement date)? http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_riding
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Mar 13, 2015 18:30
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Right, so unless you have a margin account or have settled cash sitting in your brokerage account Robinhood is no different from a regular brokerage, right? Except it seems like Robinhood doesn't even let you buy with your unsettled funds.
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Mar 13, 2015 18:34
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INTC is cheap because their mobile division is hemorrhaging cash and pc sales are meh. I think they're a fantastic company that realizes how badly they hosed up waiting to get into the mobile market and won't make the same mistake again. QCOM is also looking juicier, having dropped every day since their dividend and buyback announcement.
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Mar 13, 2015 22:00
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Slarlid posted:INTC is cheap because their mobile division is hemorrhaging cash and pc sales are meh. I think they're a fantastic company that realizes how badly they hosed up waiting to get into the mobile market and won't make the same mistake again. Anecdotally, Intel sounds like its become a bit of a hellhole. Middle managers who can't get poo poo done, everything is way behind schedule and nothing getting out the door. Everyone working weekends and late hours but just churning. I mean thats not unusual for old large companies who have acquired too many incompetent managers over the years, whose only skill is survival, but still.... Their near monopoly kind of ensures they aren't going anywhere for awhile, but I wouldn't expect it to be outperforming the market anytime soon either.
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Mar 14, 2015 00:31
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Baddog posted:Anecdotally, Intel sounds like its become a bit of a hellhole. Middle managers who can't get poo poo done, everything is way behind schedule and nothing getting out the door. Everyone working weekends and late hours but just churning. I mean thats not unusual for old large companies who have acquired too many incompetent managers over the years, whose only skill is survival, but still.... Their near monopoly kind of ensures they aren't going anywhere for awhile, but I wouldn't expect it to be outperforming the market anytime soon either. Their facilities are still second to none, though, no? I actually haven't been following this company too much anymore--I have a chunk of it in my IRA and forgot about it--but aren't they still one of only a small handful of firms that can produce the smallest chips? I wonder if they might ever get to the point where they have to do contract manufacturing like other firms do with the ARM chips.
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Mar 14, 2015 00:36
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The free riding rule applies if you sell a security (XYZ), buy another security same day (ABC) before the funds from the sale of XYZ settles, then sell ABC within 3 days. Then you've made a full circle trade on credit without having a credit account. Every broker I've ever used allows you to use unsettled funds to purchase ABC in the above example, they just attach a warning that if you sell ABC before XYZ trade settles, you will be subject to 90day freeze. Robinhood is the only brokerage I have used that will not allow you to purchase in the settlement period, cash or margin makes no difference. Most of my trades I hold well over 3 days, so the freeriding rule never bites me but I generally like to rotate out of one security and into another on the same day. Robinhood doesn't allow that. Anyways, margin is supposedly the next thing they are going to introduce so hopefully that will be fixed soon greasyhands fucked around with this message at 01:40 on Mar 14, 2015 |
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Mar 14, 2015 01:36
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greasyhands posted:The free riding rule applies if you sell a security (XYZ), buy another security same day (ABC) before the funds from the sale of XYZ settles, then sell ABC within 3 days. Then you've made a full circle trade on credit without having a credit account. Keeping unsettled funds is probably part of their revenue model.
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Mar 14, 2015 01:54
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Yes, they say that on their website. Their other revenue is margin interest but I guess they aren't offering margin to everyone yet. That makes it even more important for them to keep you in cash as long as possible.
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Mar 14, 2015 03:14
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Interestingly, at 6.0, Intel has the 3rd lowest EV/EBITA for the Dow 30 (Chevron 5.7 and Travelers 5.75 both slightly lower), and the 9th lowest price to book, which seems a bit counter-intuitive for their industry. For some reason, people are buying Nike at a 17.5 EV/EBITDA and a 7.2 price to book. Seems like close to a lock for that stock to underperform.
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Mar 14, 2015 04:31
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Oh man, Ebix is up by 17% and I was too wary to buy into this 
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Mar 14, 2015 10:30
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Arkane posted:Interestingly, at 6.0, Intel has the 3rd lowest EV/EBITA for the Dow 30 (Chevron 5.7 and Travelers 5.75 both slightly lower), and the 9th lowest price to book, which seems a bit counter-intuitive for their industry. I think PE is a better metric considering how much capex they have (I think they are close to 50% of the whole industry). 13x doesn't sound like much but it doesnt look like earnings will grow for the foreseeable future barring cost cuts. [I think there was commentary that they are done with restructuring charges but I'm doubtful, company is definitely too bloated like mentioned by another poster. Would rather trade QCOM until next year, don't think the margin problems are going away but I think the newsflow shouldn't be risky post-S6 loss and it looks like they are sandbagging their guidance.
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Mar 14, 2015 14:56
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Arkane posted:This would've been a great trade a few months ago...I think there's a couple of challenges here. You'll face costs of borrowing BABA. You should quantify that. The second is the opportunity cost. Using your own numbers, you're making a $64k bet with a maximal payout of $10k over many months (you're looking at potentially at least 9 months here). You anticipate a maximum of a 6% loss, but you've also capped yourself at a 15.5% gain (both numbers will change slightly with borrow costs). You could potentially find a better trade than this that has the potential to deliver higher returns over that time period. For instance, that wouldn't be that much outperformance versus the annualized average returns of the S&P at the top end of profit potential. I called my broker and they said they charge margin interest rates for short positions. I decided to back off the BABA short to only cover the BABA position per share of YHOO stock. Admittedly, I should have opened with this trade 2 months ago when YHOO started heading down from 52 to 45. Instead I only bought YHOO around 42 while BABA continues to tank. I honestly don't trust the corporate structure of Chinese companies listing in the US. I have more cash than I know how to effectively gamble with right now. I paid off all my student loans with 6% interest rate. So, if there was a guaranteed 6% I could park my money in until I could otherwise gamble on a stock, I would do that.
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Mar 14, 2015 18:49
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Hammerstein posted:Oh man, Ebix is up by 17% and I was too wary to buy into this Stock movements notwithstanding, smart to be wary. The company's story seems to me to be an illusion...yesterday was a short squeeze with little connection to the business outlook. If you look at the company's organic revenue growth, it is non-existent. They grew revenues from $205m in 2013 to $214m in 2014, but acquired 4 different companies in 2014 to get that revenue to increase. They "beat" the 1 analyst's estimate last quarter via the VERTEX acquisition, which padded 4th quarter results (they break down segment revenues, and you can see that VERTEX was the beat). Same thing happened in 2013 versus 2012, the "growth" was via acquisitions. They're masking stagnant businesses by acquiring new ones constantly, giving the impression that the business is growing. CEO does not give guidance but said he was hopeful for $275m+ in revenue in 2015. That could be seen as a massively expanding business to a naive investor. Yet that too seems intended to deceive given that it's not broken down into how much new revenue is generated by the businesses and how much he plans to generate via acquisitions (I believe there's already been one this year). It's an obvious question, and the CEO was asked numerous times about organic growth on the conference call yesterday and he punted every time. Same thing he did in the 3rd quarter conference call. I've listened to a fair bit of conference calls, and have never heard someone as evasive about the inner workings of the company as this CEO. He obfuscates rather than illuminates where the company is headed, how the business is going...all of the necessary information to evaluate a business, information that should be at the hands of a shareholder. He also uses buzz words constantly, which is very annoying. He even spent a little while talking about his book in the conference call. I hope the people in this stock make money, but in the long-term, unless something changes drastically, the stock appears to be of very low value. It's a collection of profitable, but apparently declining businesses. The CEO appears to be only mildly competent, to put it kindly. If you back out intangibles from the balance sheet, the stockholder equity is -$50m on a company with a market cap of $1.1b, trading at a 18x P/E. You also have the potential for SEC/DOJ intervention, both of which have open investigation of the company....the downside of these appears to have dissipated completely from the stock pricing. To me the potential range of outcomes for this business tilt heavily negative as far as the equity price is concerned, although the time horizon is indeterminate. I could be wrong, and the London deal (which does not appear to be all that large given the revenue forecasts) could be the tip of the iceberg for the business to grow. I'd probably be looking for any type of short squeeze to dip my toe into put options.
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Mar 14, 2015 21:41
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nollij posted:I called my broker and they said they charge margin interest rates for short positions. Jump on predictit and bet against Obama being impeached for very very likely 20% returns over 2 years. Caveats: you can only bet up to $850.
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Mar 16, 2015 03:07
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semicolonsrock posted:Jump on predictit and bet against Obama being impeached for very very likely 20% returns over 2 years. Caveats: you can only bet up to $850. Oh man, this is so much easier than the Iowa Electronic Market to get into. I wish I had known about this before. Currently betting on Putin not being dead.
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Mar 16, 2015 03:52
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ohgodwhat posted:Oh man, this is so much easier than the Iowa Electronic Market to get into. I wish I had known about this before. If it had higher amounts and more liquidity I would be all over it forever. But yeah, it's amazing.
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Mar 16, 2015 04:59
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Eh, lack of liquidity isn't necessarily bad. I've scalped for 3% gains since I made that post... There are some frustrating aspects to how it is currently implemented though.
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Mar 16, 2015 05:26
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Whys this gonna succeed but Intrade failed though..looks exactly the same
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Mar 16, 2015 06:12
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Arkane posted:For some reason, people are buying Nike at a 17.5 EV/EBITDA and a 7.2 price to book. Seems like close to a lock for that stock to underperform. Yeah, Nike couldn't quite break the $100 barrier and early indications are that 2015 sales are not doing them any favors. Treading water at best, sliding back to $80 at worst.
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Mar 16, 2015 06:52
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Didn't intrade or whoever the last betting site up and run off with everyone's money? What makes people think that won't happen again?
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Mar 16, 2015 07:03
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Tautologicus posted:Whys this gonna succeed but Intrade failed though..looks exactly the same CFTC gave PredictIt the green light. As a tradeoff, they're heavily limited ($850 per contract, which to me is child's play compared to Intrade, but its at least better than Iowa). Intrade was sued by the US government. Although technically Intrade wasn't targeted for any of the election stuff (for which they had a no-action letter); they were targeted because they had contracts on gold and oil, which the CFTC told them never to put up (those are highly-traded and regulated markets in the US). The US government had it wrong because anyone with a US address was banned from trading those on Intrade (it wasn't possible to do it) as per the CFTC's instructions, but Intrade was a tiny company and faced enormous fines so they opted to pull out of the US market instead of spending large sums of money fighting back. And then the company ceased all activities a few months after that. They've been reborn as Tradesports, which is a daily fantasy type site in the mold of Fanduel and DraftKings. Daily fantasy was legalized a couple years back. Foma posted:Didn't intrade or whoever the last betting site up and run off with everyone's money? What makes people think that won't happen again? Nope. I was probably Intrade's biggest trader by volume (if not biggest, top 3 for sure), and I got everything promptly. It was a legit company. Likewise, PredictIt is based in Washington, DC. I've exchanged messages with the CEO...seems like a good guy. Hopefully the company is successful. 0 reason we shouldn't be able to trade politics and stuff like that.
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Mar 16, 2015 14:09
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ohgodwhat posted:Oh man, this is so much easier than the Iowa Electronic Market to get into. I wish I had known about this before. Wish I had seen that this bet was available last night, would've been easy money. I'm glad there's something to fill Intrade's place. Too bad that the site's fees are pretty usurious (10% on any profits, 5% withdrawal fee). Also it looks like they're different from Intrade in that you can't short shares (instead it looks like they pair yes/no buyers against each other) so some arbitrage opportunities may be gone. Arkane, do you have any thoughts on that? Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Mar 16, 2015 |
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Mar 16, 2015 19:21
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I'm in a state where I can't use it unfortunately. Not sure exactly what you're referring to, but being able to short a linked market was huge for Intrade for driving up volume, since you could effectively short a whole basket of outcomes as opposed to shorting each one by itself (which could be really expensive for outlier outcomes). I made the recommendation to link up markets with multiple outcomes, no idea if they're handicapped from implementing it or they just haven't gotten that far technology-wise.
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Mar 16, 2015 20:04
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