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Pimpmust posted:
Year over year rig count is important right now, not week to week. We're just starting spring breakup, so rig counts normally drop week to week right now. That being said, I'm glad as gently caress I'm not involved with the drilling end end of things right now, they're getting poo poo on hard right now.
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Mar 21, 2015 16:14
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Gorau posted:Year over year rig count is important right now, not week to week. We're just starting spring breakup, so rig counts normally drop week to week right now. That being said, I'm glad as gently caress I'm not involved with the drilling end end of things right now, they're getting poo poo on hard right now. Isn't the inactive rig count at an all time high? That's got to mean something.
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Mar 21, 2015 16:54
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Cultural Imperial posted:Isn't the inactive rig count at an all time high? That's got to mean something. It is and it does. I was just referring to that info graphic. Not so much here but I've been hearing various talking heads and other people freaking out about the fact the week over week numbers are pdeclining faster in Canada right now. Both Canada and the U.S. are going to keep laying down more rigs for the next little while. All the rig contracts that had been keeping the rigs moving are coming to an end right now. Gorau fucked around with this message at 17:28 on Mar 21, 2015 |
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Mar 21, 2015 17:24
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I live in a smaller (28k) oilfield town. The amount of houses with for sale signs in the front is mindblowing. On some streets every 2nd house seems to have a for sale sign. They're all in the development areas. The large expansive communities built from a Home Depot catalog. Never seen anything like this before. On the subject of rig shutdowns. All the rig moving companies that had space for storage are full up. It's not just drilling rigs I'm seeing but flushbys, pressure trucks.. everything. I've been told by a friend at Husky that they're just letting wells sand up. Apparently when(if) oil goes up again they can just attend to them then. I've never seen service side impacted like this before. On the plus side I rent a kind of lovely apartment and the management company called and told me they're cutting my rent heavily in an effort to keep long term tenants so 
Amos Moses fucked around with this message at 17:51 on Mar 21, 2015 |
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Mar 21, 2015 17:45
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Amos Moses posted:I live in a smaller (28k) oilfield town. Drive through Nisku some time. There probably half a billion dollars of equipment laying around unused there. On the subject of Huskey, they're a terrible company. They've put too much money into their SAGD plants and their Chinese offshore stuff and they don't have a lot of capital flexibility. I'm starting to think that the only Canadian oil companies that are going to come out of this in good shape are CNRL and Suncor. Husky, Cenovus, Encana all have capital issues, Talisman and Nexan both sold out and are now being butchered accordingly and all the others are too small to survive.
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Mar 21, 2015 18:10
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Holy poo poo I forgot about Nisku/Leduc. What the hell are they going to do? Isn't Nisku basically just oilfield equipment rentals/manufacturing/rig service companies? I'm east of Nisku and we have a small bit of agriculture but nowhere near enough to support the city let alone a block. I'm still seeing quite a number of new trucks rolling out of the dealerships here as well as other big money toys like Commanders, RVs, boats. I sort of just want to stand on the Yellowhead with a sign screaming for people to save every loving nickel.
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Mar 21, 2015 18:33
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Boy howdy am I glad that I chose to watch these oilfield small players instead of buying shares. Nearly all of them, which were trending up rapidly a year ago, no longer exist. 
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Mar 21, 2015 18:42
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Gorau posted:Drive through Nisku some time. There probably half a billion dollars of equipment laying around unused there. On the subject of Huskey, they're a terrible company. They've put too much money into their SAGD plants and their Chinese offshore stuff and they don't have a lot of capital flexibility. I'm starting to think that the only Canadian oil companies that are going to come out of this in good shape are CNRL and Suncor. Husky, Cenovus, Encana all have capital issues, Talisman and Nexan both sold out and are now being butchered accordingly and all the others are too small to survive. I'm still not sure why Warren Buffet bought such a big position in Suncor seeing how he tends to avoid commodities.
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Mar 21, 2015 19:00
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etalian posted:I'm still not sure why Warren Buffet bought such a big position in Suncor seeing how he tends to avoid commodities. Not really sure either, except that Suncor is a fully integrated oil company (unlike CNRL) with limited exposure to international unrest (as opposed to Exxon, Shell et. al. ) with a very healthy balance sheet and large proven reserves. As a straight oil play there are better choices, but Suncor offers stability over most of them. Also seconding the laughter at anyone who decided to play the junior oil companies. It's no secret that every last one of them is unstable as hell and is one bad deal from going under. See: Athabasca.
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Mar 21, 2015 19:10
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Gorau posted:Not really sure either, except that Suncor is a fully integrated oil company (unlike CNRL) with limited exposure to international unrest (as opposed to Exxon, Shell et. al. ) with a very healthy balance sheet and large proven reserves. As a straight oil play there are better choices, but Suncor offers stability over most of them. Yeah basically all the small players are getting slaughterd, only large cap companies like Suncor have the resources to survive the famine years. Conoco also announced another 7% cut for their operations, with 200 layoffs for Calgary downtown office.
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Mar 21, 2015 20:17
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http://business.financialpost.com/2015/03/20/autocanada-expects-2015-challenges-as-oils-collapse-depletes-buyers-confidence/quote:AutoCanada shares plunge as Alberta slowdown hits car dealerships
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Mar 21, 2015 20:23
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~Energy superpower~
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Mar 21, 2015 20:34
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http://business.financialpost.com/2015/03/20/canadas-household-debt-problem-all-the-more-concering-amid-collapsing-oil-prices-expert-says/ The fiance and I currently rent. We have zero debt. No autoloans, no credit card debt no student debt nothing outstanding on either TransUnion/Equifax. Other than the job market going belly up do I need to worry about poo poo?
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Mar 21, 2015 21:15
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As long as you won't be shocked by the fact that CPP and other benefits you might hope to rely on when you retire are probably going to fall apart and you know to base your long term plans on this you're in a better spot than most. My wife is REALLY itching to buy a house this year now that she's seeing all the awesome deals hitting the market and we're in the same boat but I still don't want to overpay on a house. At least she knows that we should budget for a house we can afford 5 years from now when interest rates are probably at 6% and everyone's stuck with the house they have unless they're willing to take a huge loss on it.
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Mar 21, 2015 21:35
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Anecdotally, I'm hearing lots of reports that our union members are returning to B.C. from Alberta in droves. I suspect the same will be true for the Ontario and Newfoundland locals, so I expect it start showing up in unemployment figures shortly.
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Mar 21, 2015 21:42
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This one is pretty great. Underwater on condo and have student loans and about to have a kid? Time to buy a house! http://business.financialpost.com/2015/03/20/debt-ridden-young-couple-in-vancouver-wants-it-all-bigger-house-kids-early-retirement/
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Mar 21, 2015 21:47
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That can't be real.
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Mar 21, 2015 21:55
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EvilJoven posted:As long as you won't be shocked by the fact that CPP and other benefits you might hope to rely on when you retire are probably going to fall apart and you know to base your long term plans on this you're in a better spot than most. Yeah fiance is in the same boat that we should buy a house. I'd much rather have the father in law pull the trigger on dividing up some of the land at their farmhouse and plopping down a $50-80K RTM. The assholes spending $400k+ on houses here that would go for $50k-70k back in Ontario are up poo poo creek.
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Mar 21, 2015 22:04
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quote:It is a problem of perspective, the planner says. The couple, who are using most of their savings capacity to pay off their wedding, has almost no savings on their balance sheet. Hahahaha Also, two engineers who each make about 75k year lol. They can't loving do simple math to solve their finances. These two idiots have failed at life.
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Mar 21, 2015 22:27
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blah_blah posted:This one is pretty great. Underwater on condo and have student loans and about to have a kid? Time to buy a house! How the gently caress did their mortgage outclimb the value of the condo in 3 years in the middle of a housing bubble? 
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Mar 21, 2015 22:41
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Franks Happy Place posted:Anecdotally, I'm hearing lots of reports that our union members are returning to B.C. from Alberta in droves. I suspect the same will be true for the Ontario and Newfoundland locals, so I expect it start showing up in unemployment figures shortly. And don't forget Nova Scotia. This plus the EI crackdown is gonna have a serious effect on our economy. I'm glad I work in a sector that isn't affected by the oil price, and if anything benefits from it - but the local job market is going to get rocked soon I feel. Too many people went out west with minimal education and got jobs and when they all flood back at the same time...
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Mar 21, 2015 22:43
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blah_blah posted:This one is pretty great. Underwater on condo and have student loans and about to have a kid? Time to buy a house! That budget is something else. Liquidate those people. Literally.
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Mar 21, 2015 22:47
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I missed the part about them spending all their money on their wedding. Amazing.
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Mar 21, 2015 22:48
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The food budget plus restaurant and travel expenses is pretty hilarious.
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Mar 21, 2015 22:55
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Isentropy posted:And don't forget Nova Scotia. This plus the EI crackdown is gonna have a serious effect on our economy. I'm glad I work in a sector that isn't affected by the oil price, and if anything benefits from it - but the local job market is going to get rocked soon I feel. Too many people went out west with minimal education and got jobs and when they all flood back at the same time... EI Crackdown? They gonna start bootin people off EI? On the BC thing if you ask anyone driving a u-haul where they're going it's either Fort St. Johns headin west or St. Johns heading east. I guess I could always move back to Thunder Bay.. ahaha
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Mar 21, 2015 22:56
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http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2015/03/17/who-can-we-trust-on-vancouver-real-estate/quote:Who can we trust on Vancouver real estate? lol the loving sun has decided that maybe they should start doing some journalism.
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Mar 21, 2015 23:02
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blah_blah posted:This one is pretty great. Underwater on condo and have student loans and about to have a kid? Time to buy a house! Retirement readiness: Two (2) stars out of five. What do you have to do to be given only one star? Or zero stars? "I make $100,000 per year but since I live off the grid I burn bales of hundred dollar bills for heat, costing me ten million dollars per year." One (1) star out of five "...but I own my house." Five (5) stars out of five
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Mar 21, 2015 23:07
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She has a defined benefit plan which is pretty big. Also the situation is pretty easy to fix.
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Mar 21, 2015 23:13
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Lumius posted:She has a defined benefit plan which is pretty big. Also the situation is pretty easy to fix. Which is they go kill themselves
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Mar 21, 2015 23:22
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Xoidanor posted:How the gently caress did their mortgage outclimb the value of the condo in 3 years in the middle of a housing bubble? Condos and townhouses have not appreciated much compared to detached houses. MrChips posted:Retirement readiness: Two (2) stars out of five. I mean, 2/5 is about right. They make a lot of money, have one defined benefit pension, and aren't planning on buying an incredibly expensive property (the flipside is that they spend insane amounts of money and have negative net worth). But if everything goes well (i.e., they keep their jobs and work another 30 years apiece) they will be able to retire easily, probably much better than most people of their generation. Of course, there are lots of things that can happen between now and then... blah_blah fucked around with this message at 23:28 on Mar 21, 2015 |
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Mar 21, 2015 23:24
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Cultural Imperial posted:[Tsur Somerville has] also delivered dozens of presentations, unhindered by the need for peer review. Here’s a sample of the titles: “Bubbles”, “Immigration and Real Estate”, “The Effect of Foreign Investment on Vancouver’s Housing Market”, and “Maybe the sky doesn’t have to fall”. This time it's different.
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Mar 21, 2015 23:30
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Cultural Imperial posted:http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2015/03/17/who-can-we-trust-on-vancouver-real-estate/ The SCMP is writing better articles about housing in Canada and immigration in Canada than Canadian newspapers at this point (and obviously the Vancouver Sun isn't a particular good Canadian newspaper in the first place).
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Mar 21, 2015 23:36
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Lumius posted:She has a defined benefit plan which is pretty big. Also the situation is pretty easy to fix. How many 31 year old do you know who are planning to stay with the same employer for thirty years? Alternatively, how many private pension funds will still be around in 30 years? Just look at the situation with the steel mill in Hamilton, or that paper company in Quebec that went and reduced the pension payment of already-retired people. If you rely on a pension plan for survival after retirement, you're a drat fool.
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Mar 21, 2015 23:46
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FrozenVent posted:How many 31 year old do you know who are planning to stay with the same employer for thirty years? Yeah the long term record of private plans isn't too bright.
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Mar 22, 2015 00:05
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Lumius posted:She has a defined benefit plan which is pretty big. Also the situation is pretty easy to fix. Every time I click on one of those they have a defined benefit plan. Makes it seem like they are super common where in most cases its like finding a loving unicorn outside of civil service.
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Mar 22, 2015 00:11
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Saltin posted:Doesn't it depend on the manufacturer's strategy though? VW made a pretty clear shift in the late aughts to value. Prior to that they messed around with the luxury/german side of things. You could pay $50,000 CAD for a VW Passat in 2000, and then there was the ill fated "Phaeton" which was supposed to compete with BMW 5 and 7 series, Audi, etc. That didn't work for them so they started building cheaper cars. They've always had good advertising though, and the current one definitely gets "value" across. They are now the value German brand. (Even though they build a lot of cars in Mexico). My point is listing a bunch of features (ie. heated seats, lots of leg space, price, POWER (that's for you PT6A)) isn't an effective advertising strategy at all. Regardless of whether you're targetting the luxury market, the first-car market, the family car market or whatever, if you want to make an ad that sells, you have to show people how they will BENEFIT from it. So sure, Ferrari can put out an ad that says "my car goes from 0-60 in 3.2 seconds, it has one billion horsepower and is fire engine red" while showing the car going along the highway fast. PT6A is far more likely to buy a car from Lamborghini that has the same features, but instead of a dumb voiceover telling what the car has, shows a guy in his 20s doing donuts in the parking lot and then has a bunch of hot chicks fall on his dick because he's so sexy with his fast car. Because that's the BENEFIT you get from owning that car. And effective marketing is all about benefits, not features.
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Mar 22, 2015 01:29
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blah_blah posted:This one is pretty great. Underwater on condo and have student loans and about to have a kid? Time to buy a house! There is a certain charm to people who have decided that the world will not allow them to have the life they want, so they just do whatever to get it. Also, $1040 a month on food and $970 a month on restaurants means $2010 a month on food. 
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Mar 22, 2015 02:04
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HookShot posted:My point is listing a bunch of features (ie. heated seats, lots of leg space, price, POWER (that's for you PT6A)) isn't an effective advertising strategy at all. Regardless of whether you're targetting the luxury market, the first-car market, the family car market or whatever, if you want to make an ad that sells, you have to show people how they will BENEFIT from it. That's what Lexus is trying to do with their "communication is non-verbal" and I'll still rather whack myself in the testicles than buy or drive a Lexus.
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Mar 22, 2015 02:35
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PT6A posted:That's what Lexus is trying to do with their "communication is non-verbal" and I'll still rather whack myself in the testicles than buy or drive a Lexus. Every single Lexus driver I've ever seen sucks balls at driving, so that's probably a good call. I haven't seen a Lexus ad in ages, so I don't know what one you're talking about. But it sounds dumb, everyone knows Lexus' target market is middle aged women/mothers who want safety to go with the hefty price tag/toys for a classy sedan or small SUV for the kids. That's like BMW trying to convince you to get an X5 instead of an M3. But that's a whole other issue...
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Mar 22, 2015 05:56
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blah_blah posted:Condos and townhouses have not appreciated much compared to detached houses. Remind me to never get a condo. MickeyFinn posted:There is a certain charm to people who have decided that the world will not allow them to have the life they want, so they just do whatever to get it. Also, $1040 a month on food and $970 a month on restaurants means $2010 a month on food. There have quite literally been kings with smaller dietary costs.
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Mar 22, 2015 06:11
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