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The Something Awful Forums > Archives > Comedy Goldmine > The Goodmine > TRUMP: holy FUCK its november 8th

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De Nomolos: Jan 17, 2007; TV rots your brain like it's crack cocaine

Michigan and Wisconsin will move as far away from the Democrats as NC and Georgia will move towards them in the next decade.

Black people and Hispanics are moving to the later. The former are increasingly whiter.

Soon you won't be able to make that "USA/Jesusland" map anymore.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 03:55

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# ? May 10, 2024 05:52

ErIog: Jul 11, 2001

Sir Tonk posted:

What is it with *young* Republicans and constantly talking about obsessively working out?

I'm going to go with Barney Frank's take

In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king. In a country with a 35% obesity rate the guy who goes to the gym once a month and avoids excess carbs has the moral high ground.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 04:44

Pinterest Mom: Jun 9, 2009

Tempest_56 posted:

It's worse than that for the GOP, honestly. If you look at historical trends and give each party every state that they've won at least five out of the last six elections for and it ends up being 257-158 in favor of the Ds. Even restrict that to six for six and it's still 242-102. Maybe stretch it to include all those southern states that've voted R for the last four elections straight - then you're still at 257-191. The GOP is at a HUGE structural disadvantage to the point where they can win everything remotely possible west of the Mississippi and south of the Mason-Dixon (ie everything that's not the coast states and MN) and STILL be trailing. To have a shot they need to really set the world on fire with a candidate - not much in the current field has the kind of star power for that.

You're taking a sample of six elections, five of which the GOP lost, and saying "if elections keep going like the last six, the GOP is hosed".

There's no guarantee the next election, or the next three or five, will go like the last six. Talk of a permanent Democratic advantage is delusion. Obama won by just four point in 2012, he could have easily lost if the economy was a bit worse, the Republican candidate a bit more palatable, the debates had gone a little bit more against him.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 04:54

Meg From Family Guy: Feb 4, 2012

Readers of this thread may enjoy this article: In 2016 campaign, the lament of the not quite rich enough
http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...ry.html?hpid=z1

# ? Mar 26, 2015 05:05

Alec Bald Snatch: Sep 12, 2012; by exmarx

De Nomolos posted:

Michigan and Wisconsin will move as far away from the Democrats as NC and Georgia will move towards them in the next decade.

Black people and Hispanics are moving to the later. The former are increasingly whiter.

Soon you won't be able to make that "USA/Jesusland" map anymore.

Nah MI and WI are getting less white as well, just at a much slower pace owing to their overall slow (or practically nonexistent in Michigan's case) growth.

For all the blacks leaving the Rust Belt, California, and Northeast for the South, even more whites are moving.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 05:19

Jerry Manderbilt: May 31, 2012; No matter how much paperwork I process, it never goes away. It only increases.

comes along bort posted:

Nah MI and WI are getting less white as well, just at a much slower pace owing to their overall slow (or practically nonexistent in Michigan's case) growth.

For all the blacks leaving the Rust Belt, California, and Northeast for the South, even more whites are moving.

For reference there were over 2 million less whites in California in 2010 than there were in 1990.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 05:27

PupsOfWar: Dec 6, 2013

where do white people go

# ? Mar 26, 2015 05:29

Alec Bald Snatch: Sep 12, 2012; by exmarx

Starbucks, the dentist, Kenny Chesney concerts. White people go many places.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 05:35

Nintendo Kid: Aug 4, 2011; by Smythe

PupsOfWar posted:

where do white people go

Hell, mostly.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 05:40

i say swears online: Mar 4, 2005

Texas. Also hell.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 05:41

skaboomizzy: Nov 12, 2003; There is nothing I want to be. There is nothing I want to do.
I don't even have an image of what I want to be. I have nothing. All that exists is zero.

If they're old, Florida and Arizona.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 06:15

BrutalistMcDonalds: Oct 4, 2012; Lipstick Apathy

I think one article that should scare Democrats is this one. The title sounds like it's something a Republican booster would write, but he's a liberal writer, so.

But it's some indications why I think the Republicans (more specifically, Jeb Bush) will take the White House:

quote:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/the-emerging-republican-advantage-20150130

[In 2008,] some commentators, including me, hailed the onset of an enduring Democratic majority. And the arguments in defense of this view did seem to be backed by persuasive evidence. Obama and the Democrats appeared to have captured the youngest generation of voters, whereas Republicans were relying disproportionately on an aging coalition. The electorate's growing ethnic diversity also seemed likely to help the Democrats going forward.

These advantages remain partially in place for Democrats today, but they are being severely undermined by two trends that have emerged in the past few elections�one surprising, the other less so. The less surprising trend is that Democrats have continued to hemorrhage support among white working-class voters�a group that generally works in blue-collar and lower-income service jobs and that is roughly identifiable in exit polls as those whites who have not graduated from a four-year college. These voters, and particularly those well above the poverty line, began to shift toward the GOP decades ago, but in recent years that shift has become progressively more pronounced.

The more surprising trend is that Republicans are gaining dramatically among a group that had tilted toward Democrats in 2006 and 2008: Call them middle-class Americans. These are voters who generally work in what economist Stephen Rose has called "the office economy." In exit polling, they can roughly be identified as those who have college�but not postgraduate�degrees and those whose household incomes are between $50,000 and $100,000. (Obviously, the overlap here is imperfect, but there is a broad congruence between these polling categories.)

[...]

Some Democrats believe that the party's support among millennial voters�the 18-to-29-year-olds who first went to the polls in the 2000s�and their successors can mitigate any losses among other groups. It is true that these voters were an important part of the original Obama coalition, but they are not quite as enthusiastic about the Democrats as they once were. In 2006, 60 percent of young voters backed Democrats in House races; that number hit 65 percent in 2008, fell to 60 percent in 2012, and slid to 54 percent in 2014. Moreover, an ongoing study by the Harvard Institute of Politics has found a steady deterioration in young voters' support for Democrats since its peak in 2008. "Our recent polling," the study wrote last fall, "shows that on a wide range of issues and questions, young voters ... now look very much like the electorate at large�pessimistic, untrusting, lacking confidence in government."

[...]

Yet while middle-class voters are generally socially liberal, they oppose candidates on this basis only when those candidates take extreme positions. And so, when Republican politicians have soft-pedaled their views on abortion or guns or immigration, middle-class voters have largely ignored these issues in deciding whom to back�reverting to their natural tendency to focus on topics like taxes, spending, and the size of government. In 2014, Democrats in Arkansas, Colorado, Maryland, Ohio, and Virginia learned this the hard way when they centered their campaigns on their opponents' opposition to abortion rights or gun control�and lost.

[...]

The Democrats' best chances in next year's elections will come if Republicans run candidates identified with the Religious Right or the tea party or the GOP's plutocratic wing. If Republicans are smart, they will nominate for president someone in the mold of George W. Bush in 2000 or the numerous GOP Senate candidates who won last year�a politician who runs from the center-right, soft-pedals social issues, including immigration, critiques government without calling for abolishing the income tax and Social Security, and displays a good ol' boy empathy for the less well-to-do. Such a candidate would cater to the Republican advantage among the middle class without alienating the white working class.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 06:39

plogo: Jan 20, 2009

Omi-Polari posted:

that number hit 65 percent in 2008, fell to 60 percent in 2012, and slid to 54 percent in 2014

Note the exclusion of 2010 here.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 06:52

Pirate Radar: Apr 18, 2008; You're not my Ruthie!
You're not my Debbie!
You're not my Sherry!

Jerry Manderbilt posted:

Chris Christie kinda looks like Luca Brasi from The Godfather.

Come on, don't tell me you haven't imagined the man as a mobster.

His public persona is founded on being Governor Tony Soprano, thinking of him as being a little mobster-ish is already the point.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 09:27

Pillowpants: Aug 5, 2006

De Nomolos posted:

Michigan and Wisconsin will move as far away from the Democrats as NC and Georgia will move towards them in the next decade.

Black people and Hispanics are moving to the later. The former are increasingly whiter.

Soon you won't be able to make that "USA/Jesusland" map anymore.

We're forgetting the more important demographic shift of Texas in this.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 10:41

Jazerus: May 24, 2011

Cognac McCarthy posted:

Has Andy Borowitz ever written anything remotely funny in his life?

Jazerus fucked around with this message at 04:24 on Apr 16, 2015

# ? Mar 26, 2015 14:14

Sir Tonk: Apr 18, 2006; Young Orc

ErIog posted:

In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king. In a country with a 35% obesity rate the guy who goes to the gym once a month and avoids excess carbs has the moral high ground.

Once a month would be fine, but they spend more time at the gym than with their wives...

# ? Mar 26, 2015 14:18

Alec Bald Snatch: Sep 12, 2012; by exmarx

Pillowpants posted:

We're forgetting the more important demographic shift of Texas in this.

Texas is much further off from Democrats becoming competitive outside municipal elections again.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 14:22

ufarn: May 30, 2009

More like Nomentum amirite

# ? Mar 26, 2015 15:27

Look Sir Droids: Jan 27, 2015; The tracks go off in this direction.

If Wisconsin and Michigan are draining more Democratic votes than Republicans, that's fine. They're also draining electoral votes in the process. So if you're the Democrats you make that trade for NC and GA all day every day.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 15:27

Joementum: May 23, 2004; jesus christ

He's still using his email list to push shady crap...

# ? Mar 26, 2015 15:59

mcmagic: Jul 1, 2004; If you see this avatar while scrolling the succ zone, you have been visited by the mcmagic of shitty lib takes! Good luck and prosperity will come to you, but only if you reply "shut the fuck up mcmagic" to this post!

Joementum posted:

He's still using his email list to push shady crap...

Are you implying that there are GOP candidates that don't do that? Isn't that pretty much the entire conservative movement?

# ? Mar 26, 2015 16:03

Tempest_56: Mar 14, 2009

Pinterest Mom posted:

You're taking a sample of six elections, five of which the GOP lost, and saying "if elections keep going like the last six, the GOP is hosed".

There's no guarantee the next election, or the next three or five, will go like the last six. Talk of a permanent Democratic advantage is delusion. Obama won by just four point in 2012, he could have easily lost if the economy was a bit worse, the Republican candidate a bit more palatable, the debates had gone a little bit more against him.

Permanent, absolutely not. But there's absolutely an in-built advantage going on at this current time and a significant one. And I don't see a better way to get an idea than watching those results - the statistics are always going to be suspect because there's just not that many presidential elections to look at. It's not like you're going to be seeing New England or the West Coast turn red for Scott Walker - historical trends are likely to stay true.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 16:06

DaveWoo: Aug 14, 2004; Fun Shoe

Joementum posted:

He's still using his email list to push shady crap...

I love the little disclaimer there.

"This email being sent by Mike Huckabee may not necessarily reflect Mike Huckabee's views."

# ? Mar 26, 2015 16:12

logikv9: Mar 5, 2009; Ham Wrangler

Joementum posted:

He's still using his email list to push shady crap...

If I paid Huckabee enough could I make him send out a Hillary campaign ad? :allears:

:allears:

# ? Mar 26, 2015 16:20

Inside Out Mom: Jan 9, 2004; Franklin B. Znorps
Dignity, Class, Internet

Could someone please provide a run down of how Scott walker is fuckin up in Wisconsin? I don't think you're bullshitting me on it, but I haven't heard anything about him destroying the state. Hell last I heard he had a surplus of some sort. I don't think he's a great guy or leader but it'd be nice to have some sources to go through aside from just, you know, goonpinions.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 16:26

Look Sir Droids: Jan 27, 2015; The tracks go off in this direction.

There's three major things that can burn Walker on his management of Wisconsin that aren't matters of opinion:

1. His tax cuts have blown a giant hole in the budget deficit. They're not fiscally prudent.

2. He has cut a lot of funding from what was an excellent university system.

3. The jobs he promised would be created from enacting his policies just haven't panned out. Not even close.

Just do some Googling and you can find sources.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 16:30

DaveWoo: Aug 14, 2004; Fun Shoe

Inside Out Mom posted:

Could someone please provide a run down of how Scott walker is fuckin up in Wisconsin? I don't think you're bullshitting me on it, but I haven't heard anything about him destroying the state. Hell last I heard he had a surplus of some sort.

"Had" being the operative word here. Here's an article that summarizes the budget situation:

Scott Walker cut $541 million in taxes last year. Now his state will miss a $108 million debt payment.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 16:31

Mitt Romney: Nov 9, 2005; dumb and bad

DaveWoo posted:

"Had" being the operative word here. Here's an article that summarizes the budget situation:

Scott Walker cut $541 million in taxes last year. Now his state will miss a $108 million debt payment.

Not really sure how that will be seen as a negative by the GOP base. They thrive off of government dysfunction. Walker is doing everything he can to make it look like government can't function. If the state does run into legitimate financial issues you will see even more privatization of services, land and more.

He made highly visible budget cuts and made tax cuts. Now he can point to it and say "see look government sucks we need more privatization, I made tough cuts and cut taxes - vote for me".

It's sort of similar to what they do with public education budgets, USPS legislation and so on. Same thing they say about Obamacare after they cripple it in red states. Same reason government shutdowns actually benefit the GOP in the long term- it gets more people disappointed and angry at the government.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 16:55

Bicyclops: Aug 27, 2004

DaveWoo posted:

I love the little disclaimer there.

"This email being sent by Mike Huckabee may not necessarily reflect Mike Huckabee's views."

"You won't catch me in one of those Ron Paul newsletter situations!"

# ? Mar 26, 2015 17:02

Bobby Digital: Sep 4, 2009

Bicyclops posted:

"You won't catch me in one of those Ron Paul newsletter situations!"

"You know how unbelievably fleet of foot cancer can be."

# ? Mar 26, 2015 17:29

woke wedding drone: Jun 1, 2003; by exmarx; Fun Shoe

DaveWoo posted:

I love the little disclaimer there.

"This email being sent by Mike Huckabee may not necessarily reflect Mike Huckabee's views."

If only Ron Paul had thought to do that.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 17:29

DaveWoo: Aug 14, 2004; Fun Shoe

Mitt Romney posted:

Not really sure how that will be seen as a negative by the GOP base. They thrive off of government dysfunction. Walker is doing everything he can to make it look like government can't function. If the state does run into legitimate financial issues you will see even more privatization of services, land and more.

He made highly visible budget cuts and made tax cuts. Now he can point to it and say "see look government sucks we need more privatization, I made tough cuts and cut taxes - vote for me".

It's sort of similar to what they do with public education budgets, USPS legislation and so on. Same thing they say about Obamacare after they cripple it in red states. Same reason government shutdowns actually benefit the GOP in the long term- it gets more people disappointed and angry at the government.

Walker can certainly try to make that argument. But I suspect that "Scott Walker drove his state into debt" is going to resonate a lot better with pretty much everyone outside the extreme GOP base.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 17:30

Scrub-Niggurath: Nov 27, 2007

Pinterest Mom posted:

How to win a general election as a Republican.

Step 1. Depress evangelical turnout.
Step 2. ????

Whatre they gonna do, vote Democrat?

# ? Mar 26, 2015 17:35

MC Nietzche: Oct 26, 2004; by exmarx

Scrub-Niggurath posted:

Whatre they gonna do, vote Democrat?

Not vote at all.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 17:36

Alkydere: Jun 7, 2010; Capitol: A building or complex of buildings in which any legislature meets.
Capital: A city designated as a legislative seat by the government or some other authority, often the city in which the government is located; otherwise the most important city within a country or a subdivision of it.

Mitt Romney posted:

Not really sure how that will be seen as a negative by the GOP base. They thrive off of government dysfunction. Walker is doing everything he can to make it look like government can't function. If the state does run into legitimate financial issues you will see even more privatization of services, land and more.

He made highly visible budget cuts and made tax cuts. Now he can point to it and say "see look government sucks we need more privatization, I made tough cuts and cut taxes - vote for me".

It's sort of similar to what they do with public education budgets, USPS legislation and so on. Same thing they say about Obamacare after they cripple it in red states. Same reason government shutdowns actually benefit the GOP in the long term- it gets more people disappointed and angry at the government.

The GOP thrives off of government dysfunction affecting other people. As soon as it starts affecting the straight white protestant male negatively the GOP starts getting upset.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 17:56

PupsOfWar: Dec 6, 2013

Alkydere posted:

The GOP thrives off of government dysfunction affecting other people. As soon as it starts affecting the straight white protestant male negatively the GOP starts getting upset.

Yeah, but then you get to try and blame those effects on black people in Milwaukee, which the GoP is super good at.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 18:01

Captain_Maclaine: Sep 30, 2001; Every moment I'm alive, I pray for death!

Look Sir Droids posted:

There's three major things that can burn Walker on his management of Wisconsin that aren't matters of opinion:

1. His tax cuts have blown a giant hole in the budget deficit. They're not fiscally prudent.

2. He has cut a lot of funding from what was an excellent university system.

3. The jobs he promised would be created from enacting his policies just haven't panned out. Not even close.

Just do some Googling and you can find sources.

No no don't you see, that just means he hasn't cut taxes enough! If he hadn't been sandbagged by liberals and commies or whatever, everything would have worked and we'd all have unicorns and puppies.

# ? Mar 26, 2015 18:02

FilthyImp: Sep 30, 2002; Anime Deviant

^^^
I fully expect the whole "Lets not pay our debt because we're so loving poor" thing will come back time and time again, too.

Can someone make a gif where

zooms in and becomes

Preferably with RAND PAUL 2016?

Thanks in advance.

FilthyImp fucked around with this message at 18:08 on Mar 26, 2015

# ? Mar 26, 2015 18:05

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# ? May 10, 2024 05:52

PupsOfWar: Dec 6, 2013

I used to think pence was a viable candidate until I looked and saw how chubby he's gotten since he was in congress

there's no more room for fat candidates in this race, mike

# ? Mar 26, 2015 18:12

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