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I just don't think that the Dem bench is very strong there, its one representative and a bunch of former holders of minor state-wide offices. Their biggest hope is to ride Hillary's coat-tails but even then I'd think Sandoval is favored.
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Mar 28, 2015 02:36
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If Hillary wins by 2012 Obama margins or better the Senate is D regardless of what happens in Nevada. There are too many seats in purple states in play for multiple Rs to run a +7 race over their candidate unless their candidate is in the clown camp which is at least a small possibility right now. If she loses the Senate is lost. The only time any of these races turn out important on their own is in a 2 point election or if the nominee isn't her.
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Mar 28, 2015 14:26
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Adar posted:If Hillary wins by 2012 Obama margins or better the Senate is D regardless of what happens in Nevada. There are too many seats in purple states in play What map are you looking at? There's Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and New Hampshire. Florida I don't think is in play at all, the only hope there is Rubio gets picked as VP candidate, and Ayotte I think is only possible to get rid of if Governor Hassan runs. Iowa may be purple but there's no way in gently caress Chuck Grassley is going to face a serious challenge, and Nevada is all but lost if Sandoval runs, which means Dems need to win one extra seat.
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Mar 28, 2015 16:42
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I kind of wonder if the big bundlers and the DNC are even going to try to pick up US House and state legislative seats because if you want to start making some inroads for the re-districting, you gotta start winning some elections on the state level first and that takes time to do to build up the infrastructure. Otherwise we could be looking at another 10 years of a GOP House majority and 10 years of GOD control of a whole lot of state legislatures. And that's going to make it even harder for new talent to rise up in the ranks
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Mar 28, 2015 16:44
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Amused to Death posted:What map are you looking at? There's Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and New Hampshire. Florida I don't think is in play at all, the only hope there is Rubio gets picked as VP candidate, and Ayotte I think is only possible to get rid of if Governor Hassan runs. Iowa may be purple but there's no way in gently caress Chuck Grassley is going to face a serious challenge, and Nevada is all but lost if Sandoval runs, which means Dems need to win one extra seat. I think there are a couple other states the Dems might be looking at: their best chance would probably be North Carolina, as Burr is basically a non-entity in the state and I'm told Anthony Foxx is pretty popular (plus he'd be running alongside Cooper who will be challenging McCrory). There's also Missouri, although I don't know how popular/unpopular either Blunt or Kander are. There's also the potential that someone successfully primaries McCain (I thought I saw an article floating around a couple weeks ago about Schweikert considering a primary challenge), or the bottom falling out so hard in Kansas that voters take it out on Moran, but I admit these increasingly sound like flights of fancy.
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Mar 28, 2015 16:51
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Indiana is an open seat, that's a pickup opportunity in a state where Democrats are surprisingly competitive in non-presidential statewide races.
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Mar 28, 2015 16:53
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Missouri is not in play, as it stands McCaskill only won re-election in a presidential election year because "If it's a legitimate rape.....". Blunt doesn't need to be popular, he has an R next to his name.
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Mar 28, 2015 16:56
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Pinterest Mom posted:Indiana is an open seat, that's a pickup opportunity in a state where Democrats are surprisingly competitive in non-presidential statewide races. 2 officials elected to office bases on a statewide vote since...2004, I believe. Not exactly inspiring confidence.
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Mar 28, 2015 18:39
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Reminder: the GOP controls the house for more reasons than gerrymandering in the 2010 census. Democrats are naturally denser located than Republicans, we tend to over elect candidates compared to republicans. Even without the gerrymandering of the 2010 census the republicans would still be in control of the house, just by a smaller amount. We would need to switch to a completely different system to end the republican advantages in the house, until then we can keep getting more of the popular vote nationwide in house elections while still having fewer of the seats. Democrats need to win by a very large margin to control it.
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Mar 28, 2015 18:41
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Amused to Death posted:What map are you looking at? There's Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and New Hampshire. Florida I don't think is in play at all, the only hope there is Rubio gets picked as VP candidate, and Ayotte I think is only possible to get rid of if Governor Hassan runs. Rubio has said that he won't run for both senator and president, so if he runs for president, which a lot of people are saying he will, then the Democrats at least have a chance in Florida. Murphy's a good candidate and can win if things fall apart at the top of the ticket for Republicans. Sandoval is a dream candidate for Republicans in Nevada but he might not go for it, he's been very reluctant so far and even if with an open seat he might prefer to spend the next two years as governor. You're probably right in New Hampshire, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Hassan run. There only need to be five flips and there's seven states for you. Then you get longer shots like Republicans pissing away another race in Indiana, John McCain or Chuck Grassley falling over dead or any number of other potentialities. Rothenberg also lists Johnny Isakson as being merely "favored" instead of "safe." Though that probably more relies on a Democratic surge in Georgia and I certainly don't find it likely.
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Mar 28, 2015 23:43
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Cliff Racer posted:Rubio has said that he won't run for both senator and president, so if he runs for president, which a lot of people are saying he will, then the Democrats at least have a chance in Florida. Murphy's a good candidate and can win if things fall apart at the top of the ticket for Republicans. Sandoval is a dream candidate for Republicans in Nevada but he might not go for it, he's been very reluctant so far and even if with an open seat he might prefer to spend the next two years as governor. You're probably right in New Hampshire, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Hassan run. There only need to be five flips and there's seven states for you. Then you get longer shots like Republicans pissing away another race in Indiana, John McCain or Chuck Grassley falling over dead or any number of other potentialities. Rothenberg also lists Johnny Isakson as being merely "favored" instead of "safe." Though that probably more relies on a Democratic surge in Georgia and I certainly don't find it likely. Won't run for President and Senate if he gets the nomination, or won't run for the Presidential nomination and Senate? He's not getting the nomination so it's a big difference.
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Mar 28, 2015 23:44
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evilweasel posted:Won't run for President and Senate if he gets the nomination, or won't run for the Presidential nomination and Senate? He's not getting the nomination so it's a big difference. He responded to the question with regard to Florida's law against doing both pretty much saying it's either run for Senate or President. However there is of course wiggle room. It mainly depends on how quickly he crashes and burns. He needs to stay in for a while before he runs out of time, deadline for filing in Florida is May 2016. Though I doubt the party will wait that long to find out if they've got an incumbent running or if they need to build up someone. Florida Law doesn't allow him to be on the ballot for both the Senate and President/VP. Marco Rubio posted:“I haven’t even thought that far ahead. I think by and large when you choose to do something as big as that you‘ve really got to be focused on that, and not have a exit strategy,” the Florida Republican said of a potential run for the White House.
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Mar 29, 2015 01:35
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So in other words, Rubio's returning to the Senate. Because there's no way he's still in the race in May.
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Mar 29, 2015 16:18
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I disagree wholeheartedly, he's only getting in in mid-April, he won't pull the plug in just a month unless his roll-out is disastrous, and I doubt that it will be.
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Mar 29, 2015 16:53
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Cliff Racer posted:I disagree wholeheartedly, he's only getting in in mid-April, he won't pull the plug in just a month unless his roll-out is disastrous, and I doubt that it will be. Sorry, I should have clarified which May I meant. I was referring to Gyges's May 2016 deadline.
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Mar 29, 2015 16:56
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ComradeCosmobot posted:Sorry, I should have clarified which May I meant. I was referring to Gyges's May 2016 deadline. I should probably apologize, I thought that May 2015 was the cut-off for registering for the primaries. Come to think of it, May 2016 is a super late deadline. If he waits that long he'd actually be exiting the race after Florida's primary has ended, really loving over his state's voters.
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Mar 29, 2015 17:02
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Cliff Racer posted:I should probably apologize, I thought that May 2015 was the cut-off for registering for the primaries. Come to think of it, May 2016 is a super late deadline. If he waits that long he'd actually be exiting the race after Florida's primary has ended, really loving over his state's voters. Florida has two primaries. A presidential preference primary currently scheduled for March 15 and a general primary in August. Hence the May deadline. Unless Rubio has the nomination by May, he's free to register in the August primary.
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Mar 29, 2015 17:23
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The way the 2016 primary calendar is shaping up, we'll know the nominee by mid-to-late March, at the latest. There are just too many primaries in big states the first two weeks of that month, including Florida's on the 15th.
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Mar 29, 2015 17:28
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Isn't Rand Paul also having the same issue with running? I know for sure in that state he can't do both at the same time and I guess it doesn't look like the state is going to change that law like he wanted.
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Mar 30, 2015 00:53
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FlamingLiberal posted:Isn't Rand Paul also having the same issue with running? I know for sure in that state he can't do both at the same time and I guess it doesn't look like the state is going to change that law like he wanted. He can't run in a primary for both offices, so they're switching over to a caucus just for him. Edit: Tentatively, that is. I don't know if any official steps have been taken.
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Mar 30, 2015 01:00
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FlamingLiberal posted:Isn't Rand Paul also having the same issue with running? I know for sure in that state he can't do both at the same time and I guess it doesn't look like the state is going to change that law like he wanted. The kentucky presidential primary is fairly late and not that important. We'll be well into primary campaigning season by the time Rand has to make up his mind one way or the other, meaning that he will have the information he needs. If he has a genuine shot at the presidential nomination, he can put his name on the KY presidential primary ballot and try to pick up some extra momentum by winning his home state. In this case he could attempt to defend his seat as a write-in candidate, being drastically more well-known and popular than any other republican in the state. If he has no shot at being anything other than a protest candidate, like his father, he will put his name down as a senate candidate and focus on keeping his seat. Alternatively he can get the state GoP to switch to a caucus rather than a primary, which would get around the ballot issue but which they haven't made up their minds about yet. The move has gotten through some of the relevent committees but has not been put to a general vote of the state GoP leadership (there's a central commitee that has to vote on it, separate from the smaller commitees that have approved it already). Another consideration is that the state's gubernatorial elections are off-year and there's one coming up in 2015. Currently there are two obstacles to passing an LBJ law: the democratic stateouse and the democratic governor, who would veto. There's no way to affect composition of the House until the 2016 generals, but, if a republican wins the governors' mansion, Rand might have some hope that the new republican governor could whip up the votes to pass a bill. PupsOfWar has issued a correction as of 01:13 on Mar 30, 2015 |
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Mar 30, 2015 01:06
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ComradeCosmobot posted:So in other words, Rubio's returning to the Senate. Because there's no way he's still in the race in May. Is Rubio a lock for reelection if he runs again? Didn't Crist's campaign drain away a lot of liberal and moderate votes back in 2010? If the Democrats run a decent candidate (which I guess is the real problem in Florida) in a presidential year, don't they have at least a decent chance of picking up the seat?
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Mar 30, 2015 01:39
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Naked Lincoln posted:Is Rubio a lock for reelection if he runs again? Didn't Crist's campaign drain away a lot of liberal and moderate votes back in 2010? If the Democrats run a decent candidate (which I guess is the real problem in Florida) in a presidential year, don't they have at least a decent chance of picking up the seat?
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Mar 30, 2015 02:08
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every good flordia democrat is black and therefor unelectable at the state level every florida democrat who might be electable at the state level is awful at everything except finding ways to gently caress themselves. it is a Big Problem and will not be solved until lawton chiles returns from his long slumber 'neath the Mountain
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Mar 30, 2015 02:10
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Naked Lincoln posted:Is Rubio a lock for reelection if he runs again? Didn't Crist's campaign drain away a lot of liberal and moderate votes back in 2010? If the Democrats run a decent candidate (which I guess is the real problem in Florida) in a presidential year, don't they have at least a decent chance of picking up the seat? Do not underestimate the power of incumbency. I don't know if I'd say he was a lock but the race would definitely be at least lean R, if not R favored. And thats only because Murphy has stepped in, without him it would be even further out of reach.
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Mar 30, 2015 02:13
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could rubio see a serious primary challenge from republicans outraged at his flirtation with moderate stances?
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Mar 30, 2015 02:58
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No. Mainly because there don't appear to be any people interested in such a race. Incidently, McCain seems to be lucking out on that front too. It had looked like two sitting representatives were considering primary challenges but both have recently moved away from that. All he has to worry about now is some state senator, who should be easy prey.
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Mar 30, 2015 04:16
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Joe Sestak announced his candidacy for US Senate in Pennsylvania today. Continuing the Democratic party tradition of too-clever-by-half gimmicks, he pledged to "walk 500 miles" across the state and then spent a minute awkwardly putting on boots. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxKvgBvdCEM His campaign has already honored a request from The Proclaimers to stop using the song.
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Apr 3, 2015 01:25
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As Daily Kos noted, it's an impressive stunt, but he wasted a lot of time just plodding across the commonwealth, time that could have been spent calling donors or talking to voters.
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Apr 3, 2015 01:30
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Huh, I thought he started walking a month ago? As a matter of fact I'm pretty sure he did.
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Apr 3, 2015 10:30
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CaptainCarrot posted:As Daily Kos noted, it's an impressive stunt, but he wasted a lot of time just plodding across the commonwealth, time that could have been spent calling donors or talking to voters. If you're not dialing for dollars as you walk, or using the walk for informal, face-to-face quid pro's, then you're not going to win.
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Apr 3, 2015 17:42
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John McCain will run for a sixth term. He's 78, but notes his mother is 103 and "doing fine".
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Apr 7, 2015 11:57
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Does his mom also have an unhealthy obsession with bombing a certain foreign country?
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Apr 7, 2015 14:08
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Joementum posted:John McCain will run for a sixth term. He's 78, but notes his mother is 103 and "doing fine". I hope someone's told him that he's going to have to make it to at least 104 if he wants to beat Byrd.
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Apr 7, 2015 17:38
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Well, that didn't take long. The Senate Conservatives Fund wants to replace John McCain. Reminder: Ted Cruz regularly fundraises for this group, which is run by Ken Cuccinelli.
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Apr 7, 2015 18:50
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whoah the Cooch is behind that? i saw that edit 
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Apr 7, 2015 18:52
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FlamingLiberal posted:Does his mom also have an unhealthy obsession with bombing a certain foreign country? No, but her name is Barbara.
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Apr 8, 2015 02:27
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Dems are pushing Josh Shapiro to run for PA-Sen I know he's been groomed for higher office, but is he a better candidate than Sestak?
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Apr 10, 2015 15:03
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Franco Potente posted:Dems are pushing Josh Shapiro to run for PA-Sen I don't know. But Sestak lost to Toomey the first go round and rematches are generally not the best thing
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Apr 10, 2015 15:08
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I am not sure if you've talked about it because, lol we suck as a state, but there's a good chance that Joe Manchin is going to run for Governor in 2016. He doesn't have to give up his senate seat to run (he's up for 2018) but that would trigger a special election for his seat when he presumably would win the governorship (there's no one with any real chance of beating him.)
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Apr 10, 2015 15:10
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