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That actually sounds really interesting, do you have any sources on Chinese involvement in Zimbabwe?
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Apr 1, 2015 05:55
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FrozenVent posted:I don think those huge infrastructure projects are intended to turn a profit. They're intended to keep people employed. Yeah but they're not building them in China, they're building them in other countries. Keeping Zimbabweans or Indians employed is irrelevant to China. I think China thinks if it gives enough money to other countries they'll be contractually obligated to be Chinese allies, and that this will get China international influence? Somehow? That's not going to happen, Zimbabwe and friends will disappear the second the money stops coming. I don't think China quite understand how diplomacy works. The US has a military that can regime change whoever they want whenever they want, and can through sanctions can cripple a country's economy by locking them out of the entire developed world, and on top of that has more money to give out. China doesn't have any sticks to deal with foreign countries, only carrots icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 06:06 on Apr 1, 2015 |
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Apr 1, 2015 05:59
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TsarZiedonis posted:That actually sounds really interesting, do you have any sources on Chinese involvement in Zimbabwe? Sure, I can't source you on the rural clinic issues our projects have encountered, I can give you citations on the impact of Chinese anti-unionism upon the garment trade, the collapse of platinum refining due to extraction-focused dealings, and the impact of land reform [to shift from a focus upon internal consumption to internation export which resulted in Chinese monopolies on agricultural trade) dealings. Give me until Friday to find an old brief I did on the issues, send me a PM if I forget.
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Apr 1, 2015 06:34
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Cool, thanks! I'm surprised someone with actual real life experience is even posting on DnD.
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Apr 1, 2015 07:09
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TsarZiedonis posted:Cool, thanks! I'm surprised someone with actual real life experience is even posting on DnD. MIGF's Africa stuff feels pretty legit, but based on his overall gimmick I'd advise you to take everything he says with a grain of salt.
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Apr 1, 2015 07:12
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Off the top of my head, if you don't have to worry about it, a great primary source on Zimbabwe, and China in Africa, would be Cablegate. Gives you the US understanding in concise form, allowing you to compare the secondary sources/available academia and technical work with reality. In my mind, Zimbabwe and China in Africa are inseprable topics, as Chinese foreign policy has been since the 70s to use Zim as their gateway to Africa, and where China goes in Zim, so goes China in the rest of the subcontinent. It also helps that China runs all their operations out of Zim, so you hear some crazy poo poo from Zim expats in certain communities about the Generals, Grace, and the Beijing connection.
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Apr 1, 2015 07:56
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I can second MIGFs general idea that Africans really dislike Chinese infrastructure projects. In Benin, all the people I talked to said the same things: 1. The Chinese bring in their own workers. Nobody in the area gets paid. 2. The Chinese workers self-segregate, and when they do go out of their camps, they tended to be jerks 3. The actual projects took longer than they said and with very poor quality 4. No training on maintenance was done. No training of engineers, etc to teach how to make infrastructure themselves in the long-run either. 5. A lot of open corruption is done with local governments and police by the Chinese to keep the Chinese workers out of trouble, and to make up for the project not going on time.
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Apr 1, 2015 14:00
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So apparently the inevitable overtaking of US GDP by China is going to happen around 2030 now. Last year they were predicting it'd happen in 2024 In 2011 they were predicting 2018 Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 23:54 on Apr 1, 2015 |
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Apr 1, 2015 23:44
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Fojar38 posted:So apparently the inevitable overtaking of US GDP by China is going to happen around 2030 now. 2017 is for GDP by Purchasing Power Parity. 2030 is for nominal GDP. By some estimates China already has a larger GDP PPP.
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Apr 2, 2015 00:01
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Anosmoman posted:2017 is for GDP by Purchasing Power Parity. 2030 is for nominal GDP. By some estimates China already has a larger GDP PPP. Yeah I edited my post when I realized that some said PPP. It should all be nominal predictions now. Still noticing a pattern.
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Apr 2, 2015 00:04
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Fojar38 posted:So apparently the inevitable overtaking of US GDP by China is going to happen around 2030 now. According to your numbers, new year's prediction will be 2038.
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Apr 2, 2015 00:06
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whatever7 posted:According to your numbers, new year's prediction will be 2038. Most articles I've read expect China to miss its 7% growth target this year and are already seeing a more noticeable amount of capital flight. So yeah it will probably be pushed back again. And again. And again. Especially as the US economy surges.
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Apr 2, 2015 00:14
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Is national PPP GDP a useful measure of anything? PPP per capita gives you a better idea of quality of life, but a larger national figure doesn't help you when international deals are still worked out in nominal dollars.
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Apr 2, 2015 00:25
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Peel posted:Is national PPP GDP a useful measure of anything? PPP per capita gives you a better idea of quality of life No that's pretty much it. The relation between PPP and nominal has to do with some macroeconomic fuckery and I'm sure is very interesting, but it's a useless measure of international clout or influence, which is what people comparing the GDPs want to do
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Apr 2, 2015 00:38
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TsarZiedonis posted:That actually sounds really interesting, do you have any sources on Chinese involvement in Zimbabwe? I found my EndNote bibliography for that brief. Do you have PMs/an email, or would you prefer I dump 'em all in here? e: for instance, the citations look like this--- Brautigam, D. (2012, August 20th, 2012). Kenyan Traders Protest Against Chinese Competitors. Retrieved from http://www.chinaafricarealstory.com/2012/08/kenyan-traders-protest-against-chinese.html Abstract Professor and Director, International Development Program, Johns Hopkins University/SAIS; Visiting Professor, University of Bergen, Norway; and author of The Dragon's Gift: The Real Story of China in Africa (Oxford U. Press, 2009, 2011). A China scholar, I first went to Africa in 1983 to research Chinese engagement and never stopped quote:The proliferation of Chinese traders in African markets is one of the perinneal sore spots in China-Africa relations. This video highlights the recent protests in Nairobi where African traders fear and resent the competition. Consumers generally welcome the expansion of products at lower cost, but frequently complain about the low quality of cheap goods. My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 16:56 on Apr 4, 2015 |
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Apr 4, 2015 16:41
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Peel posted:Is national PPP GDP a useful measure of anything? PPP per capita gives you a better idea of quality of life, but a larger national figure doesn't help you when international deals are still worked out in nominal dollars. National PPP GDP is a useful measure on the potential war economy of a country.
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Apr 4, 2015 19:53
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Bip Roberts posted:National PPP GDP is a useful measure on the potential war economy of a country. No it isn't. Edit: You can't adjust the price of advanced military hardware and vehicles, like missiles and warplanes, to the cost of living, which is what PPP measures. Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 21:07 on Apr 4, 2015 |
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Apr 4, 2015 20:14
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Fojar38 posted:No it isn't. Advanced military hardware no (which is only made in advanced economies and therefore imported). Basic supplies, basic weapons, food etc, maybe.
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Apr 4, 2015 21:28
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asdf32 posted:Advanced military hardware no (which is only made in advanced economies and therefore imported). Basic supplies, basic weapons, food etc, maybe. None of which are as relevant in warfare as they used to be.
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Apr 4, 2015 21:31
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Fojar38 posted:None of which are as relevant in warfare as they used to be. In E. Africa, a major importer of Chinese arms, the types of warfare you find are done with machetes, light armored vehicles, and children attacking in waves with heavy machine guns and Chinese kalashnikovs.
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Apr 4, 2015 21:33
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My Imaginary GF posted:In E. Africa, a major importer of Chinese arms, the types of warfare you find are done with machetes, light armored vehicles, and children attacking in waves with heavy machine guns and Chinese kalashnikovs. When Bip Roberts said "war economy" I assumed he meant "war economy" ie. the mass mobilization of national industry towards warfare. Anyone with a moderately sized economy can support that style of proxy warfare if they set their mind on it. When it actually comes to the ability to militarize the economy, GDP per capita is a better measure for domestic production and nominal GDP is a better measure for imported weaponry. Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 21:46 on Apr 4, 2015 |
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Apr 4, 2015 21:41
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Well specifically it was a used as a big part of "how many tanks and guns can the Warsaw bloc produce" question.
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Apr 4, 2015 21:45
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The Warsaw Pact (Soviet Union, really) was also economically self-sufficient and practiced a command economy.
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Apr 4, 2015 22:01
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Fojar38 posted:The Warsaw Pact (Soviet Union, really) was also economically self-sufficient and practiced a command economy. Well someone asked what it was used for.
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Apr 4, 2015 22:11
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Fojar38 posted:When Bip Roberts said "war economy" I assumed he meant "war economy" ie. the mass mobilization of national industry towards warfare. Anyone with a moderately sized economy can support that style of proxy warfare if they set their mind on it. GDP measurements don't matter. What matters is mampower: can you mobilize 40,000 air force cadets aged 7-16 to charge when you say charge?
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Apr 4, 2015 22:14
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My Imaginary GF posted:GDP measurements don't matter. What matters is mampower: can you mobilize 40,000 air force cadets aged 7-16 to charge when you say charge? Chinese war strategizing used to involve using China's sheer bulk against any given enemy (throw people at them because they'll run out of bullets before we run out of people) but then they saw the Gulf War and shat a brick.
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Apr 4, 2015 22:19
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Also more than military affairs, in terms of actual financial weight a nominal GDP is going to matter much more since PPP is only showing costs not assets. Also, I assume the discussion is over "international power" and in that sense China only has so much Yuan to work with, they may have lower costs but international markets work with currency. Basically, it will likely take quite a while for it to happen, and it may eventually work out that China gets caught in a middle-income trap/inverted demographics pyramid and the the relative power of the two countries becomes relatively static over the long-term as the "progress" China is making over the US slows to a crawl.
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Apr 4, 2015 22:26
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My Imaginary GF posted:I found my EndNote bibliography for that brief. Do you have PMs/an email, or would you prefer I dump 'em all in here? No, this is great, thank you! Oh, and when you mentioned "Grace" earlier, was that a reference to Mugabe's wife?
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Apr 4, 2015 23:27
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TsarZiedonis posted:No, this is great, thank you! Yes it was. I have a lot of Zim specific books and articles, if you're looking for something more concentrated. There's also a general "he said, she said" book I read of Chinese and American perspectives on Chinese involvement in African affairs. If you have an email, I can send them to you pretty easily. Came across a book you may enjoy--- Alden, C., Large, D., & Oliveira, R. S. d. (2008). China returns to Africa : a rising power and a continent embrace. New York: Columbia University Press. Once you read that, contrast it with: Brautigam, D. (2009). The dragon's gift : the real story of China in Africa. Oxford England ; New York: Oxford University Press. quote:Abstract: Its another Brautigam book; she's a very respectable expert on the subject, and I can personally vouch for her depth of knowledge. My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 23:46 on Apr 4, 2015 |
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Apr 4, 2015 23:42
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Ardennes posted:Also more than military affairs, in terms of actual financial weight a nominal GDP is going to matter much more since PPP is only showing costs not assets. From what I can tell, this is already starting to happen. Thanks to the one-child policy, there are far more people 45+ than there are younger than 30. As those born before the policy was started are retiring right around now, it's going to be a huge cost sink on their kids. Their kids have to support their own families in high-cost cities like Shanghai, with relatively lovely wages, plus their parents now because there isn't a good safety net in China for the elderly.
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Apr 5, 2015 06:53
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Slaan posted:From what I can tell, this is already starting to happen. Thanks to the one-child policy, there are far more people 45+ than there are younger than 30. As those born before the policy was started are retiring right around now, it's going to be a huge cost sink on their kids. Their kids have to support their own families in high-cost cities like Shanghai, with relatively lovely wages, plus their parents now because there isn't a good safety net in China for the elderly. Ultimately the problem is probably going to be domestic consumption, everyone was expecting the Chinese middle class to grow and develop a consumer culture that would be enough to pull China along but obviously there are problems with that expectation as expenses for the middle class grows. There is obviously a Chinese middle class but discretionary spending is still quite low and with the one child policy, it has caused the demographics of a late-developed country in a country that is still very much developing. Admittedly unlike Japan, China still has a peasant work force to pull from but they are still going to have considerable costs of taking care of the elderly. Right now Chinese nominal GDP is about 60% of US GDP, but it is quite possibly China starts to move toward a more "traditional" growth model in the next 10 years looking at the constantly downward revisions of GDP.
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Apr 5, 2015 09:50
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 ooh baby Look at the Hang Seng  Do they have shoeshine boys in China? 
I would blow Dane Cook fucked around with this message at 15:21 on Apr 9, 2015 |
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Apr 9, 2015 14:10
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Didn't Chinese regulators ban margin trading last month?
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Apr 9, 2015 14:32
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Arglebargle III posted:Didn't Chinese regulators ban margin trading last month? They are trying to crack down on it.
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Apr 9, 2015 14:42
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Jumpingmanjim posted:
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Apr 9, 2015 19:09
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Npr had a story about the Shanghai stock exchange and all the people on the sidewalks giving sure-fire investment advice. http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2015/04/08/398338647/sidewalk-touts-trade-tips-on-shanghais-booming-bull-market
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Apr 9, 2015 21:35
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Shifty Pony posted:Npr had a story about the Shanghai stock exchange and all the people on the sidewalks giving sure-fire investment advice. This time it is going to be different, no fate.
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Apr 9, 2015 22:37
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Fojar38 posted:Chinese war strategizing used to involve using China's sheer bulk against any given enemy (throw people at them because they'll run out of bullets before we run out of people) but then they saw the Gulf War and shat a brick. That's not quite true, human wave was a tactic used by the PLA, but strategically it always involved the usage of infiltration tactics (see the first phase of the Korean War) to position your forces on the enemy flank without being detected, and then use fast human wave attacks to overrun individual units and ambush the retreaters. For the latter part of the cold war, the Chinese military never modernized because it was expected to fight against a Soviet tank invasion, and therefore the people's war doctrine was paramount since the only logical way to fight against that would be to draw them into the interior country and bleed them like 100x Afghanistan.
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Apr 9, 2015 23:31
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Typo posted:That's not quite true, human wave was a tactic used by the PLA, but strategically it always involved the usage of infiltration tactics (see the first phase of the Korean War) to position your forces on the enemy flank without being detected, and then use fast human wave attacks to overrun individual units and ambush the retreaters. This WAS true for the most part.. but you must remember that the Cold War ended with the fall of the Berlin Wall in the late 1980's. I would add that generally the Chinese get to work on time everyday and it is becoming more typical for them to have condos/apartments/houses & vehicles. The middle class is expanding in China. This gives China an economic advantage especially in the last few years.
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Apr 9, 2015 23:37
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A3th3r posted:This WAS true for the most part.. but you must remember that the Cold War ended with the fall of the Berlin Wall in the late 1980's. I would add that generally the Chinese get to work on time everyday and it is becoming more typical for them to have condos/apartments/houses & vehicles. The middle class is expanding in China. This gives China an economic advantage especially in the last few years. They are in a better place to fund a modern military, but right now their focus is pretty much still on asymmetrical warfare. After the first Gulf War everyone pretty much gave up on the idea of anything approaching a conventional war against the United States for the foreseeable future.
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Apr 9, 2015 23:44
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