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Amos Moses posted:Oh I was yelling at that CI moron. I know plenty of over-leveraged idiots living paycheque to paycheque who consider my lack of post-secondary to be the worst decision a person could possibly make and take relish in reminding me of it, while never having struggled a single day in their lives to get where they are. I look forward to watching them lose everything while I peace out to the developing world and enjoy living life off my massive savings. 
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Apr 6, 2015 20:46
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CI posts good links alongside his glee so I don't mind. At least his posts are interesting. Also I've come around to the "people who live way beyond their means deserve to get hosed" mentality. You don't need to be a genius to realize that hey maybe you shouldn't spend money you don't have.
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Apr 6, 2015 20:46
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OhYeah posted:1. Stop eating so much, you fat bastard In this case she is lazy as the government will pay for bypass surgery is required for medical reasons (like my wife after her last pregnancy drove her type 1 out of control)
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Apr 6, 2015 21:18
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Amos Moses posted:Sorry not all Canadians can be so educated to be as euphoric as you are when you flex that mighty fiscal prowess you've got going on there. The reasons things are the way they are is because that ignorance is being fellatiated by every level of society from your mom and dad to the PMO. This isn't some virtue you're defending, it is the wholesale selling of EVERYONES future and everyone participating in it is scum and deserve everything coming to them. I plan on sipping a fine wine and toasting everyone's surprising comeuppance. gently caress them. ocrumsprug fucked around with this message at 22:05 on Apr 6, 2015 |
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Apr 6, 2015 21:21
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Amos Moses posted:Oil picking up steam now drat. lmao doesn't change how Alberta baselined their province budget on $75+ oil or how the energy sector has cut billions of dollars in capex plus done layoffs galore.
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Apr 6, 2015 21:28
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etalian posted:lmao doesn't change how Alberta baselined their province budget on $75+ oil or how the energy sector has cut billions of dollars in capex plus done layoffs galore. Literally who gives a gently caress (apart from the government)? The assholes who were making mad amounts of money during the boom should've saved it for the inevitable bust, because this has happened literally multiple times in my life already. It's pretty predictable, so anyone who failed to account for that can get hosed. The Alberta government is run by retards and I very much want to vote them out, no question. We saw all the signs coming up to this, though, and we still re-elected the cunts, so I suppose we can only blame ourselves.
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Apr 6, 2015 21:46
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LITERALLY no one gives a poo poo about this RECOVERY of oil prices because of this thing called volatility you retards. https://twitter.com/SBarlow_ROB/status/585166195361456128 LITERALLY now would be a good moment for you idiots to take some time to google 'contango' and pause and reflect upon this implication for oil prices. Oh yeah btw, if you think Yemen is going to make oil prices go back up to $100 consider for a moment that the loving saudis have the 4th largest military in the world, consisting of some really new poo poo that the americans. If you think a bunch of country bumpkins with AKs and toyota hiluxes are going to seriously disrupt oil prices i recommend you hedge your oil futures pocket money and invest in condos in the best place on earth
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Apr 6, 2015 22:03
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Cultural Imperial posted:LITERALLY no one gives a poo poo about this RECOVERY of oil prices because of this thing called volatility you retards. Also despite the rapid shutdown of rigs, US oil production is expected to 8% higher than last year.
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Apr 6, 2015 22:34
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Whilst eating lunch in the square, I listened to a grizzled old construction worker advise his younger companion how best to rustle up his taxes so that he could afford the payments on a $750k house instead of just a $500k one, in the event interest rates jump back to 7 or 8%. So close to responsibility, yet so far. 
Rime fucked around with this message at 23:26 on Apr 6, 2015 |
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Apr 6, 2015 22:44
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Cultural Imperial posted:LITERALLY no one gives a poo poo about this RECOVERY of oil prices because of this thing called volatility you retards. I've heard the Saudi's have all the latest toys and a huge budget but the quality of their troops is "which is the shooty end of this rifle??" and their officers and leadership are a corrupt clusterfuck of bought promotions.
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Apr 6, 2015 23:22
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We're talking about a bunch of al qaeda funded shitlords with 5 wives who'd literally rather be playing candy crush than sweating to death in a cave. Even the CF could steam roll these idiots.
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Apr 6, 2015 23:28
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http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2015/03/broker-boot-sparks-questions.htmlquote:#1 – What on earth is a rate comparison website? Can you imagine if Vancity or Prospera or some poo poo did this? 30% of Canada's GDP depends on FIRE and this poo poo is allowed.
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Apr 7, 2015 00:12
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Cultural Imperial posted:http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2015/03/broker-boot-sparks-questions.html Pffft! Sounds like this commie wants to have regulations for 30% of the economy.
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Apr 7, 2015 00:23
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Baronjutter posted:I've heard the Saudi's have all the latest toys and a huge budget but the quality of their troops is "which is the shooty end of this rifle??" and their officers and leadership are a corrupt clusterfuck of bought promotions. Basically all arab militaries are like this, only good for terrorizing the local population due to a massive laundry list of structural problems and pretty much useless for waging a real military campaign.
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Apr 7, 2015 00:24
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COVER YOUR EYES, DEEPLY IMMORAL SCHADENFREUDE INCOMING http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...rticle23815533/ quote:Energy investors are dreading what they are about to see – the financial ravages of a full quarter of deeply depressed oil prices. Good thing oil will be back up at $100/bbl by the end of the year. 
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Apr 7, 2015 00:39
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In a related note: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...rticle23769285/ quote:If Tasha Ptasinski had put her Calgary condo on the market last year before oil prices crashed, she would have come out farther ahead. Also clever real estate agent doesn't understand the connection between oil prices and inflated alberta real estate
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Apr 7, 2015 00:53
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ocrumsprug posted:The reasons things are the way they are is because that ignorance is being fellatiated by every level of society from your mom and dad to the PMO. But this is part of the problem. You'd expect a young person's financial ignorance to be reigned in by institutions and people who have come before them and have tons more experience/expertise. Instead this ignorance is being supported. It's like the student loan crisis in America. Everyone is borrowing huge loans to pay for college, so obviously that must be a good investment, right? And yet parents and banks don't tell these 18-year olds that maybe it isn't, or maybe they should figure out what it's actually like to live under a lot of debt before they go signing papers, etc. I'm of the opinion that you can't really blame the young and inexperienced for their ignorance if it's being so widely supported. That's like blaming a teenager for having a kid when their state provided no sex education. Of course the did something stupid, they didn't know there was a smarter alternative. And yet it's those people who are going to suffer the most, though the broader society will also feel the effects.
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Apr 7, 2015 01:17
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Cultural Imperial posted:LITERALLY no one gives a poo poo about this RECOVERY of oil prices because of this thing called volatility you retards. Just a little note: the people who they're fighting, the Houthis, are Shia (so allegedly funded by Iran) and have been doing this insurgency thing almost since the 1970s. In fact, they're one of the reasons Egypt ended up on the pro-US side: years of fighting there made them broke. Also, the Saudi military isn't known for being the most professional in the world. Consider their original operation into Yemen, which they called "Scorched Earth". American weapons don't come with American training and American tactics (and an American command structure/officer corps). To bring it back to the thread though, there's no way this, or anything short of world war, brings oil close to $100 in the near future. The Saudi plan to stop the expansion of shale gas/alternative sources seems to have worked really well.
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Apr 7, 2015 01:19
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Isentropy posted:To bring it back to the thread though, there's no way this, or anything short of world war, brings oil close to $100 in the near future. The Saudi plan to stop the expansion of shale gas/alternative sources seems to have worked really well. Not really it failed miserably given how even with the rig downsizing, oil producing areas like the US will actually crank out even more this year. It will naturally case some pain leading to smaller companies going under but I don't see the low $50 price changing any time soon. You can also pretty much forget about seeing $100+ oil too.
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Apr 7, 2015 02:30
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etalian posted:In a related note: The oil shock is a few months old by now. Why are these fools acting like they're surprised that things on the ground aren't reflective of oil prices a year ago?
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Apr 7, 2015 03:42
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Y'all acting like Canadians aren't innumerate morans.
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Apr 7, 2015 04:19
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http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/former-bank-of-canada-adviser-says-zero-rate-inescapable-in-oil-shocked-canada lovely Canadian economy most likely to lead to 0% interest rate. quote:Canada’s central bank will eventually join global peers by cutting interest rates to zero to revive flagging output, said Fidelity Investments’ David Wolf.
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Apr 7, 2015 05:34
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Cultural Imperial posted:LITERALLY no one gives a poo poo about this RECOVERY of oil prices because of this thing called volatility you retards. Yup. However, on the glide path to oversupply we are going to get bear rallies like this where something stupid leads to a minor rip. Keeping production off market is tough. If you are choking back production those 45% year decline curves for the most agressive wells glide path to 18%, which matches their post-3 year rate. Which is why production lags rig utilization in the current PADD numbers posted by Baker Hughes. The kicker is that it takes new production about 5 days to pull backlog out of inventory, and +2 days to plug (tie in) the new wells into the system. This leads the supply cushion, the amount of production ready to replace old supply at an ever accelerating rate, and since production is done on a accounting last in first out method, everyone is always eager to turn back on the taps as soon as it makes economic, or post-tax economics to frac it. This ensures there will always be volumes of oil to flood into the market, keeping prices depressed. Jeff Currie at Goldman is doing a good talk on CNBC about this, as is Ballsnay Capital tomorrow. Saudi market share is decreasing actually, and as of last week they were raising prices to price match on cargos being sent to China for June delivery. So that intra-OPEC cannibalization was what led to half of the spike today, the other third being dollar risk taking intraday which you can tell as momentum falls into the end of day prints on heavy selling pressure (heavy downticks) and the residual being a fresh backlog in tankers being unable to land in Texas to unload fresh cargoes. So the energy inventory numbers will be lower than expected, as more is parked offshore gulf of mexico, to splooge the market in 3 weeks. Martin actually is arguing the same thing you are; because Contango will accelerate as more volumes rush to market, pushing the curve steeper; which makes it all the more lucrative for refiners to lock in profits, at the expense of upstream who must dump more crude to lockin revneue to meet fixed cost obligations. Now if we have any line outages, or bottlenecks in tanker supply, then differentials widen, and the loss dumping accelerates until someone goes boom. In which case, Keyera and Kinder Morgan building our own version of Cushing OK. for Canada excess capacity so we are not dumping our only resource backing our percieved national stability is a pretty smart idea. If however you are a refinery, you are happier than Milhouse in flood pants. Since even if you are selling it for negative profits, you can effectively pass the losses down into the upstream margins, which will feed back into the currency FX market and local job market. On another note, everyone saw the Govt sold off their GM shares today, right ? Huge block trade and I'm curious to hear what people think those shares capital gains should be used for. Don't say a 1 time tax break. Please. On a scale of 1 to fiscal crisis, I would rate the sale of that block, well below the intrinsic value of GM (price to book; nothing sekret about that analysis or stock opinion) as being on par with the privitzation of a minor crown company. Which goes to show just how dead set serious Harper is about keeping all cards on the table before downgrading Canada's credit rating, and causing more problems for the FX/labor markets. Hal_2005 fucked around with this message at 06:08 on Apr 7, 2015 |
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Apr 7, 2015 05:43
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Ccs posted:But this is part of the problem. You'd expect a young person's financial ignorance to be reigned in by institutions and people who have come before them and have tons more experience/expertise. Instead this ignorance is being supported. It's like the student loan crisis in America. Everyone is borrowing huge loans to pay for college, so obviously that must be a good investment, right? And yet parents and banks don't tell these 18-year olds that maybe it isn't, or maybe they should figure out what it's actually like to live under a lot of debt before they go signing papers, etc. Young people buying over priced shoeboxes is definitely a problem, but it is not contained to just the Millennials. This is everyone. (NB. not literally everyone) There are 60 year olds retiring with mortgages. There are 45 year olds with 40 year mortgages that can only afford the mortgage by turning their home into a boarding house, and having someone live in the garage with a porta-potty. There are 25 year olds buying 300 sqft boxes in what was politely called "the stix" before they were born. Some of these are probably engaged and will have a baby in less than 3 years. None of this is smart. None of this should be encouraged. None of this is even normal. People are buying stuff they would not even rent, even if it was half the cost (and it is half the cost.) Anyone telling people that this is acceptable, socially normal behaviour should be called out on the massive disservice they are providing. My wife has a number of co-workers that are ~10 years older than us. This puts them into the position of having purchased a house in Vancouver before the insanity kicked in, and maybe even having inherited their parents home. They are now selling these houses, literally winning the loving lottery, and are now sinking these winnings into... You guessed it, a new more expensive house. I get to hear about how this is a good and normal thing to do. gently caress no! This is not a good thing, and when that guy ends up with a 500K house he paid 2.5M for, he deserves to be mocked for it. At a certain point, you need to stop excusing peoples inexperience for the massive problem they are causing. You don't have to blame them for it, but you certainly do not have to stifle your chuckle when they get what is coming them. ~~~ As an aside, I know several people that have started to actually encourage people thinking about buying. Very much like telling someone on the ledge of a building to jump, and for the same reason. Biggest financial decision of your life, and you leave it up to a casual acquaintance telling you to go for it. You are an email from a Nigerian prince away from bankruptcy anyways and deserve what the future has in store. (Also, there will be less competition when the market eventually does collapse.)
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Apr 7, 2015 06:00
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Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates at 2.25% today, probably scared by house prices in Sydney.
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Apr 7, 2015 06:09
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Amos Moses posted:Sorry not all Canadians can be so educated to be as euphoric as you are when you flex that mighty fiscal prowess you've got going on there. You're right, the Canadian economy should be held hostage in perpetuity so that Joe Schlub the pipefitter can keep his overpriced house in newfoundland. CI is 100% correct in saying that there is no world in which all of this can be unravelled with no one getting hurt, and I'm personally fine with the people who made the dumbest decisions holding the largest portion of the bag. I have a 'chip on my shoulder' because I want to live in Vancouver in ~10 years and I think that there's a good chance that it will be pretty lovely then, in large part because of policies like this. I have a chip on my shoulder because my sister and her fiance are probably going to spend over half a million dollars soon on a townhouse in some far-flung suburb of the GVRD and that's profoundly hosed up. All of these things affect me and the people I went to high school and university with negatively. Most of the smartest and most talented of us have gone to the US to work as a result, and there's a good chance that a lot of us will never return. Pretty sure that that's going to have a much bigger long term consequence than allowing the paper wealth of foolish homeowners (who already tend to be relatively well-off) to evaporate.
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Apr 7, 2015 06:52
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blah_blah for prime minister.
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Apr 7, 2015 07:00
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Why would anyone live in Vancouver even if finances weren't a concern. It's so bereft of any culture or anything interesting.
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Apr 7, 2015 07:14
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shrike82 posted:Why would anyone live in Vancouver even if finances weren't a concern. We've been trying to figure that out for the last 360 pages or so.
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Apr 7, 2015 07:22
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I don't begrudge anyone of the profits they made by timing the market and selling their house at the right time, so why should I have any sympathy for the ones that fail? No one forced you to make a huge leveraged bet into an undiversified procyclical asset class, if it works out, great, if it doesn't and you get burned well poo poo son it's all in the game and the game be the game.  EDIT: TL;DR the king stay the king Throatwarbler fucked around with this message at 07:30 on Apr 7, 2015 |
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Apr 7, 2015 07:27
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shrike82 posted:Why would anyone live in Vancouver even if finances weren't a concern. It depends In the 80's there was a booming mining /timber/energy industry and Vancouver was the center for the merged Vancouver stock exchange. Back in the 80s this was THE place to list new equity, and I do not mean that without any irony. It was NASDAQ before NASDAQ and American Exchange became big, or the UK Turquoise sheets. UBC and U Victoria by extension got alot of heavy govt. money to become a full industrialization/cosmo. city which could compete with the emerging Seattle to Los Angles "wealth miracle" so the BC govt. dropped the capital gains and work subsidization rates to near zero for media, telecom and software startups. This led to the 90's when the place became a hotbed for money that wanted to capitalize on Canada's poo poo foreign exchange market, and also did not want to pay the 45% base taxes for the US. So while many corps listed as US exchange, they had cross listings or asset managers in Canada in VC. This eventually spread to Asia, where like all Asia Pac. countries, the large volumes of new wealth from the Asian Tigers ran into Vancouver. Nearly all this was developer cash, and Hutchinson was a big developer for the bay area from industrial shitstain to yuppie mecca. Bre-X came and went, the exchanges were gutted, and most of the brokerages and wealth effect in both security exchange consolidation, investor bitter memories and no corporate financing killed 99% of the mining in BC. Timber exchanges delisted when Toronto acquired the merged Alberta/Vancouver group for the Toronto capital pools. Most brokers and managers moved east. BC was scared shitless of defaulting on their debt so agreed to both restructure their govt with selling off Federally gifted assets to the BC crown, and privatizing all their state assets with exception of the key provincial parks which they did not get in the Rockies division. BC gov. went populist, dropped the tax rate on foreign capital to 0% to offset the wealth effect flight to Calgary / Toronto/NYC/Seattle. BC went into debt. Continued to double down on property subsidization to developers. First property rip and collapse happened in 98. BC Govt and city of Vancouver lost a large chunk of the "hollywood north" industry due to SAG lockouts on Canadian Vancouver productions after the X-files wrapped up and FOX shuttered most of their standing soundstages in downtown and Kelowna. 2004-2013 BC govt went full tilt on sov. debt using the same financial advisors who advised Greece and Detroit. Unlocked a bunch of formerly earmarked properties that were on the 87 national park/property roll for natural reserves for Whistler and the surrounding plaza's, hoping to win the bid and recreate the economic stimulus of the 88 Calgary and 94 Olympics. Blew themselves up in the bidding round, never broke even. Covenants on the bonds insist on credit grade, which made BC Treasury seek aggressive expansion of the rezoning of old industrial areas for new commercial/wholesale speculation in a replication of the Seattle/Austin business model. Consultants at the time promised 10% growth in vancouver, which in 2005 sounded like a really great deal vs the 4% US growth rate and awesome dollar:canada dollar trade. BC gov now locked into keeping credit rating, so as BC growth stalled vs. Alberta/SK and refinancing became tougher vs. everywhere else in the world BC turned a blind eye to foreign property laundering & speculation until Federal govt. was getting US inquiries ahead of FATCA and the IRS Clampdown on foreign shell company laundering. 2014-15. About 80% of VC and the surrounding properties out to the Okanagan wine country are owned by foreign shell or asset management companies. Nearly all are for tax avoidance or profit manipulation. Of the industrial core left in Vancouver proper we have 3 vestigial dealers, and some govt. departments, and 4 internationally known software publishers who are in various modes of downsizing. Like King and Queen in Toronto only about 50% at most actually property that people live in. So in the event of a debtor in possession event, where the home owner walks away, Canada will be stuck with a stupid inventory of real estate they have no idea how to get off of, since there is literally not enough industrial productivity in downtown Vancouver to meet this excess supply. TLDR: Same as the ghost cities in deep north China. Absurd returns lead to absurd wealth speculation, which encourages everyone else to build, assuming people will come. Vancouver cannibalized all industrial working area, right out to the dredgable port area so that they could fill this mythical offshore demand thinking they were moving to Vancouver but in reality they were playing global tax games, like Australia and Swissy. So if you showed a map of Vancouvers urban planning to any major US contractor in 2015, its obvious the Civic planners and Provincial govt. by subdivisions and roadway access bottlenecks were zoning/profit making for speculators vs. building a working, livable metropolis. Like say, Calgary or Houston that were designed in the 1980's for populations in excess of 3 million when they were only small 400,000 burbs. Urban planning made a profitable choice, like Hong Kong or Guandong to pack in profit-maximizing units vs. anything else to offset all the revenues Vancouver and BC lost when the base metals, import terminals and and soft wood industries blew up in the 70-99 era of bad government. Hal_2005 fucked around with this message at 07:46 on Apr 7, 2015 |
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Apr 7, 2015 07:44
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What's Hal_2005's gimmick? I've seen him post about running a hedge fund as well being a leading conservative MP but the way he posts strikes me as someone needing mental help.
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Apr 7, 2015 07:53
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shrike82 posted:What's Hal_2005's gimmick? He's how we got the  tag added.
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Apr 7, 2015 07:58
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I mean look at the guy's listing of "premier" Canadian products.Hal_2005 posted:Sure
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Apr 7, 2015 08:00
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shrike82 posted:I mean look at the guy's listing of "premier" Canadian products. It's hilarious, because the only ones people outside the country may have heard of in the list (Such as CGI, Corelle, Lotus, SNC) are widely regarded as terrible. highliner fish products and McCain french fries are the backbone of our innovation.
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Apr 7, 2015 08:11
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blah_blah, you might be pleased to know that hootsuite now has a 'data science' wet works type group. 
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Apr 7, 2015 09:10
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The University of Winnipeg's Institute of Urban Studies just released a paper showing debt levels per neighbourhood in pretty fine detail, with 90% of the population included. http://winnspace.uwinnipeg.ca/bitstream/handle/10680/817/2015%20Living%20in%20the%20Red.pdf?sequence=1 The wealthier the area, the more consumer debt they have, with the richest areas like Wellington Crescent and Tuxedo being among the worst offenders for debt to income percentage. Their bankruptcy risk map doesn't seem to take into account people who don't hold any consumer debt products, so I'm wondering what the map would look like if it included people who are smart enough to not be in debt in the first place. If nothing else, it's neat to just take a look at your own neighbourhood; all the rental apartments on our side of the street are solid green, but the single dwelling homes across the street are all in the moderate debt range, and this seems to repeat for the next couple of blocks. I'd love to see something like this for a city like Vancouver or Toronto. So far the news sites are mainly talking about how even though our poorer neghbourhoods have low debt as a percentage of total income, they're still at a greater risk of bankruptcy, but not a peep about how if interest rates go up, all of those folks in the "rich" areas are gonna be pretty hosed.
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Apr 7, 2015 09:23
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etalian posted:Basically all arab militaries are like this, only good for terrorizing the local population due to a massive laundry list of structural problems and pretty much useless for waging a real military campaign. Anyone who is interested in this particular subject might want to read this: http://www.meforum.org/441/why-arabs-lose-wars
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Apr 7, 2015 09:25
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Coxswain Balls posted:The University of Winnipeg's Institute of Urban Studies just released a paper showing debt levels per neighbourhood in pretty fine detail, with 90% of the population included. When I saw this all I could think of was 'the rich will eat themselves.'
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Apr 7, 2015 13:38
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EvilJoven posted:When I saw this all I could think of was 'the rich will eat themselves.' How typical of them. Not even kind enough to share their meals!
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Apr 7, 2015 13:52
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