Franks Happy Place posted:

1) Saudis need money to fund their war (and the concomitant social bribery campaign they will need to run in order to keep the domestic population happy, naturally)

2) Saudis need everyone else in the world to be as un-annoyed with them as possible right now. Why would they try to orchestrate an OPEC curtailment right when they need friends?

Neither of those two things are enough to, like, push them into high production, but they certainly lean against reducing consumption.

As for the effect this 'war' is having on oil prices, like I said a week ago, an Iranian nuclear deal is a WAY bigger positive than a Saudi safari in Yemen is a negative.

Brannock posted:

Median income per province

Reverse Centaur posted:

If you can find a house for $700,000 in North Van you should buy it in a second. That's gotta be half a million off at least. My parents just sold their lovely townhouse with tens of thousands of special assessments due for close to $700k with a six person bidding war in less than 24 hours.

quote:

Q1 condo sales in #Ottawa weakest since at least 2004. Only 510 units sold, lower than 540 in Q1 2009, but inventory up 150% since then

https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/585888631438487552

etalian posted:

Ha your parents are smart cashing out of the bubble.

Basically anyone with half a brain would sell their Vancouver cracks for big bucks and then invest the proceeds in index funds.

etalian posted:

lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s90QrUJBjJU

quote:

Understatement--> Days of most Winnipeg homes selling above list price are over http://www.cbc.ca/1.3024857

https://twitter.com/BenRabidoux/status/585905957365919744

Baronjutter posted:

Yeah my parents at one point owned 2 houses but during the lowest point in the 80's they sold the 2nd house (which was divided into 2 rentals). We'd have been legitimately wealthy if they had held onto that 2nd house. Their current house is worth 750-850ish and the 2nd house sold recently for about 650. Everyone told them not to sell but then panicked because the market was down.

Most of the old boomer family friends I've grown up with all have similar financial sense. Buy when everyone else is buying, sell when everyone else is selling. House flipping seems popular, lets get into that! lovely BC resource town going through a boom? Now's the time to buy because it will only keep going up! Or they don't even buy/sell based on making money, it's just based on whims. House feels too big and hard to look after so sell it and buy a condo. Hate your condo so buy a house again. Just, generally be really really bad with your money but blunder through because they are riding high on all the 90's to now equity they've gained, and good paying jobs. Then they go on about how the next generation's so bad with money and don't have the financial sense to buy a house.

Cultural Imperial posted:

So Regina, Ottawa and Winnipeg housing markets are cratering. lol

Coxswain Balls posted:

Yesssssss. I'm really hoping that housing costs will become reasonable again by the time my partner and I decide to have kids.

Coxswain Balls posted:

That goes without saying. Just how bad things end up becoming is one of the main things that's going to determine whether or not we decide to have children and/or get a home.

Cultural Imperial posted:

Serious post: this is probably the worst consequence of a prolonged housing bubble. While reproductive technology is innovating in leaps and bounds, it is an absolute tragedy that rational people have to choose between mortgage debt indentured servitude and reproduction. Especially given the way demographics are changing. gently caress this country.

quote:

Why house prices can soar but still be affordable. The effect of falling interest rates in one graph (via Desjardins) http://twitter.com/tamsinrm/status/585460569211277313/photo/1

https://twitter.com/tamsinrm/status/585460569211277313

Cultural Imperial posted:

Coylter posted:

That's insane right?

I mean, to believe that you're getting something affordable is literally to burrow your head in the sand and not think that rates can go up ever.

Cultural Imperial posted:

Serious post: this is probably the worst consequence of a prolonged housing bubble. While reproductive technology is innovating in leaps and bounds, it is an absolute tragedy that rational people have to choose between mortgage debt indentured servitude and reproduction. Especially given the way demographics are changing. gently caress this country.

quote:

Sydney closes in on $1m median house price


Sydney's median house price could crash through the $1 million mark before the end of the year.

Cheap debt, immigration and a booming NSW economy has some property experts tipping more than 10 per cent price growth before December.

"We revised our numbers last week for to grow between 11 to 15 per cent for the year, and the current tempo is clearly for 15 per cent," SQM Research chief executive Louis Christopher said.

"It could be as early as the fourth quarter of this calendar year that Australian Property Monitors reports a median house price above the $1 million mark."

SQM Research on Tuesday reported Sydney's median asking price for homes has hit $1.066 million.

The measure reflects a vendor's desired sale price, rather than the price, and is always substantially higher than median sales values. But Mr Christopher believes actual house prices are headed in the same direction of asking prices.

"It's going to happen before this cycle is through," he said of medians surpassing $1 million. "It will happen."

The median price for a detached home in Sydney is currently $882,000 according to figures published by the Real Estate Institute of Australia. Rival property research group Australian Property Monitors calculated in December put the median detached house price slightly lower at $876,000 at the end of December, with a new round of values data to be released within the fortnight.

APM chief economist Andrew Wilson believes Sydney's median is so close to reaching $1 million that he has mounted a clock on his desk counting down the months, days, hours and seconds until the milestone.


"In December we were on track to reach $1 million by the middle of next year, but prices are now accelerating and we're likely to get there earlier than we first predicted," Dr Wilson said.

"Sydney's price growth is tracking between 3 and 4 per cent a quarter, and it will definitely be double figure results by the end of the year."

Low income growth is likely to keep a lid on house price growth at 4 per cent a quarter, Dr Wilson said, but the low cost of borrowing and higher equity stakes that fast capital growth has afforded homeowners means prices will continue on a steady, stable upward trajectory.

"A lot depends on whether we can sustain this rate, because incomes just aren't growing, but sharp falls in interest rates will continue to increase borrowing capacity," he said.

BIS Shrapnel analyst Angie Zigomanis agreed. "The latest interest rate cut helped fuel more activity, and we think that further cuts will help fuel it further," he said.

Mr Zigomanis argues that discounted loan rates at rock bottom levels have made owning a million dollar home an achievable goal for average buyers.

"If you borrow a $1 million on the current discounted loan rate between 4.5 per cent and 5 per cent, that equates to around $45,000 to $50,000 in interest repayments each year ... and if you took a rule of thumb that a bank allows for 30 per cent of income to go to home loan repayments, it means you're only earning about $150,000 a year - or for two people, that's $75,000 each - and that's not too far above the average wage," he reasoned.

More than 32 per cent of homes sold in Sydney during 2014 fetched a sales price of more than $1 million, according to RP Data analyst Tim Lawless. This is a substantial increase on prior years. In 2013, a quarter of homes were sold for more than $1 million. In 2012, prestige sales in this bracket made up just 18 per cent of transactions.

"The proportion [of homes selling for more than $1 million] is becoming very large," Mr Lawless said. "And it's not yet 50 per cent, but if the current rate of growth continues, we'll be there in two years."

RP Data Core Logic analysts, which use a different methodology for calculating median values, have recorded the median selling price for detached homes of $781,600.

Against this measure, RP Data analyst Tim Lawless believes Sydney's median house price is more likely to hit $1 million in 2017.

But he is sanguine about the likelihood of house prices running that high.

There are too many headwinds, he argues.

"Affordability constraints are likely to put some natural brakes on market conditions, as well as the fact that rental yields are being severely compressed," he said.

The investor segment is one of the primary drivers of capital gains across Sydney, but low rental yields combined with potential restrictions on lending to investors could substantially curb demand across the demographic, he added.

"Historically, any markets that have continued to grow at high rates for a long period of time generally have a longer downside as well. And so even if those [million dollar] results do come through, then potentially prices might not stay that high for very long."

cowofwar posted:

Well they've been dropping for like a decade now and they're basically at zero in a lot of places. There is a lot of expectation that Canada will drop it's overnight to zero eventually, especially with an oncoming recession. Seems like borrowers have been overall winners.

cowofwar posted:

Well they've been dropping for like a decade now and they're basically at zero in a lot of places. There is a lot of expectation that Canada will drop it's overnight to zero eventually, especially with an oncoming recession. Seems like borrowers have been overall winners.

shrike82 posted:

What's the median household income there?

Cultural Imperial posted:

So Regina, Ottawa and Winnipeg housing markets are cratering. lol

shrike82 posted:

What's the median household income there?

Cultural Imperial posted:

EvilJoven posted:

My wife and I would probably have a few kids underfoot by now if you could go back to the old 'one parent stays home until the kids are old enough to ride the school bus and do the latchkey kid thing' model of parenting.

Right now the thought of paying over half my salary to daycare, buying a second car to ferry them around and then watch my kids have to fight to the death for lovely 6 months no benefits contracts 20 years from now is one of the biggest reasons why we'll probably never have kids.

Cultural Imperial posted:

Serious post: this is probably the worst consequence of a prolonged housing bubble. While reproductive technology is innovating in leaps and bounds, it is an absolute tragedy that rational people have to choose between mortgage debt indentured servitude and reproduction. Especially given the way demographics are changing. gently caress this country.

jm20 posted:

If you do choose to have ______, you will 'find a way' to make your budget work, like every other family in the world.

Cultural Imperial posted:

Ladies and gentlemen, this thread is dedicated to young Einsteins like this all across Canada. Anyone can have whatever they want; you'll just "find a way to make it work".

Let me spell it out for you, idiot. It's called risk management.

jm20 posted:

If we all waited until we were 'financially steady' for children we would be having kids well into our mid 30's, perhaps even 40's. Speaking to risk management specifically, it makes far more sense to be financially 'less secure' and have children early than risk having kids in your ate 30's where complications skyrocket.

You might need another break CI.