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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:I am not sure if you've talked about it because, lol we suck as a state, but there's a good chance that Joe Manchin is going to run for Governor in 2016. He doesn't have to give up his senate seat to run (he's up for 2018) but that would trigger a special election for his seat when he presumably would win the governorship (there's no one with any real chance of beating him.) Really? Manchin was previously governor, and he ran for the Senate after Byrd died. Why would he go back to the mansion? Safer for Democrats?
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Apr 10, 2015 15:17
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Franco Potente posted:Really? Manchin was previously governor, and he ran for the Senate after Byrd died. Why would he go back to the mansion? Safer for Democrats? He loathes being in the Senate. He likes to be "in charge" and he's not been able to really do that like he was as governor or even when he was in the state legislature here. I also know he doesn't like being in the Washington circus. He's a good ole boy type of guy, but the Washington version of that isn't his thing. I'd put it at 60% that he runs for governor.
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Apr 10, 2015 15:20
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:He loathes being in the Senate. He likes to be "in charge" and he's not been able to really do that like he was as governor or even when he was in the state legislature here. I also know he doesn't like being in the Washington circus. He's a good ole boy type of guy, but the Washington version of that isn't his thing. Makes sense, thanks. If Manchin does decide to run for governor and win, this pretty much completely fucks any chance the Dems have of taking back the Senate in 2016.
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Apr 10, 2015 15:21
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Franco Potente posted:Makes sense, thanks. The special election would be interesting. My gut assumption is that a Democrat would win it, but that's just a thought. A lot would depend on what happened in the governor race. Shitheel state AG Patrick Morrisey is deffo gonna run for governor (and lose) and I can see him trying to get in on the senate race. McKinnley might try and run, but he's about as charismatic as a piece of wood. I think Natalie Tennant would be the rational choice since she ran in 2014 and held her own despite it being a wave election against a popular figure with lots of name rec (Natalie has plenty herself.)
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Apr 10, 2015 15:27
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When would the special election be under WV law? He wouldn't be able to appoint his own replacement?
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Apr 10, 2015 15:46
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evilweasel posted:When would the special election be under WV law? He wouldn't be able to appoint his own replacement? Current law (state republicans tried to change it again and failed to ge) would allow him to appoint his replacement and have a replacement election within 28-months e.g., 2018. It would be a hilarious cluster gently caress. BI NOW GAY LATER has issued a correction as of 16:02 on Apr 10, 2015 |
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Apr 10, 2015 16:00
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Franco Potente posted:
is WV's democratic bench that bad where they couldn't field an at-least-remotely-passable senate candidate outside of ole Joe? like yeah I know it has tilted further to the right over the past decade but I'd think they could wrangle a decent field together out of all the democratic state officials that they've had under the tomblin and manchin administrations. Particularly when the Democratic presidential candidate will be hillary, who should generate less visceral backlash in appalachia than obama did
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Apr 10, 2015 16:01
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PupsOfWar posted:is WV's democratic bench that bad where they couldn't field an at-least-remotely-passable senate candidate outside of ole Joe? I'm no expert here, so I'd take Bi Now Gay Later's reading, but I thought Tennant was their big draw, and she lost to Capito by about 30 points. I know it was a bad year for Democrats everywhere, but that's still a pretty thorough rear end-kicking. You're right that a presidential year + a lack of Obama on the ticket may definitely help, but I'd remain pretty bearish on the Democrats' chances in the state.
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Apr 10, 2015 16:08
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PupsOfWar posted:is WV's democratic bench that bad where they couldn't field an at-least-remotely-passable senate candidate outside of ole Joe? I don't think the bench is that bad and the idiots in the legislature managed to piss enough people off this year to maybe get people to pay attention, but the GOP bench is currently deeper. As I said the biggest name for Dems is Natalie Tennant who ran against Shelly Capito in '14. Jeff Kessler (state senator from the northern panhandle) is going to run for governor in '16, which could do him a world of good for statewide rec. Booth Goodwin is a US AG and is going to run if Joe doesn't. He might also be Joe's appointee, though I think Joe would likely appoint someone with no plans to run again, as he did after Byrd kicked it. WV's also a state where someone with money can easily get into the ring and there are more than enough people that could fit that bill. There's also rumors that Gaston Caperton (governnor from 1988-1996) would be interested in running and he'd be able to clear the field. Franco Potente posted:I'm no expert here, so I'd take Bi Now Gay Later's reading, but I thought Tennant was their big draw, and she lost to Capito by about 30 points. I know it was a bad year for Democrats everywhere, but that's still a pretty thorough rear end-kicking. Captio is on a level with Joe Manchin. She's from an old political family, has Charleston and the eastern panhandle on lockdown, and is somehow the most liberal member of the delegation on social issues. Natalie, god love her, didn't stand a chance.
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Apr 10, 2015 16:08
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:Current law (state republicans tried to change it again and failed to ge) would allow him to appoint his replacement and have a replacement election within 28-months e.g., 2018. It would be a hilarious cluster gently caress. Well then, wouldn't that mean if he ran successfully there's essentially no effect - if he wins, he appoints a replacement conservative Democrat who is up for election when he would have been anyway?
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Apr 10, 2015 16:11
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evilweasel posted:Well then, wouldn't that mean if he ran successfully there's essentially no effect - if he wins, he appoints a replacement conservative Democrat who is up for election when he would have been anyway? Maybe! He might also get forced into having the special election early. In 2010 when Byrd kicked it, there was an entire farcas over how it went down and I can fully see the legislature forcing him to have a special election sooner than 2018. BI NOW GAY LATER has issued a correction as of 16:24 on Apr 10, 2015 |
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Apr 10, 2015 16:14
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Franco Potente posted:Dems are pushing Josh Shapiro to run for PA-Sen Probably about the same, assuming he hasn't been doing any scandalous poo poo that hasn't broken yet. The real key is that PA political insiders hate Sestak and he doesn't particularly like them in return. As to candidate quality, ehh, Sestak wasn't bad last time around and lost mostly because of the 2010 wave. Rematches might not look the best but candidates have come out and won them before.
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Apr 11, 2015 00:47
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evilweasel posted:Well then, wouldn't that mean if he ran successfully there's essentially no effect - if he wins, he appoints a replacement conservative Democrat who is up for election when he would have been anyway? There's a minor effect for the officeholder: the winner of the special in 2018/general 2018 would become the most senior member of the Class of 2018 by virtue of being immediately sworn in in November rather than sworn in in January 2019 with the other freshmen. It makes the WV Senate seat marginally more valuable to that candidate because the Senate is still a body that places great import on seniority for things like the quality of your office and such, and being the most senior member of your freshman class (especially if it's a large class like 2014 was) means that you'll advance all the quicker. Ed Markey was elected in a special election in 2013 and has been in office less than two years, but by virtue of how loving huge the class of 2014 is he's already #86 in terms of seniority.
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Apr 11, 2015 05:48
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Rand confirmed on Meet the Press this morning that he's running for Senate in 2016.
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Apr 12, 2015 14:08
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Joementum posted:Rand confirmed on Meet the Press this morning that he's running for Senate in 2016. Has Karl Rove reported anything to Fox News on the subject?
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Apr 13, 2015 03:48
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The AP story about Rubio's Presidential announcement says that his team is telling the RNC to recruit someone to fill his Senate seat, so it looks like he won't run for both spots.
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Apr 13, 2015 16:10
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Joementum posted:The AP story about Rubio's Presidential announcement says that his team is telling the RNC to recruit someone to fill his Senate seat, so it looks like he won't run for both spots. What a chance for the Florida Democratic Party to redeem themse-AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA sorry, I just couldn't keep that going. However, for the sake of argument, say that a miracle happens and the Dems don't nominate the political corpse of Charlie Crist or Alex "Oops, I hosed It Up Again" Sink. Is Rubio's seat winnable? Fritz Coldcockin has issued a correction as of 16:22 on Apr 13, 2015 |
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Apr 13, 2015 16:19
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The FL Dems have pretty weak candidates. In all honestly it's been like 25 years since the FL Dems had anyone win a statewide election who wasn't Bill Nelson. In a presidential year you would think the Dems would have a good opportunity, but I think it's an uphill battle.
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Apr 13, 2015 17:38
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Florida Dems, like Texas Dems, should just start drafting sports stars, gently caress.
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Apr 13, 2015 19:53
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Nonsense posted:Florida Dems, like Texas Dems, should just start drafting sports stars, gently caress. Bring the Ole Ball Coach Home.
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Apr 13, 2015 20:00
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FlamingLiberal posted:The FL Dems have pretty weak candidates. In all honestly it's been like 25 years since the FL Dems had anyone win a statewide election who wasn't Bill Nelson. In a presidential year you would think the Dems would have a good opportunity, but I think it's an uphill battle. We're getting Wasserman-Schultz, aren't we?
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Apr 13, 2015 20:29
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Alter Ego posted:We're getting Wasserman-Schultz, aren't we? Nope. As per Politico, she isn't running for the seat. Patrick Murphy (FL-19) has announced he's running, and Alan Grayson (FL-09) may yet take a shot at it. Gwen Graham (FL-02) would be another contender, but hasn't made any mention of it yet.
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Apr 13, 2015 20:39
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Nonsense posted:Florida Dems, like Texas Dems, should just start drafting sports stars, gently caress. The honorable Senator Tim Tebow.
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Apr 13, 2015 20:54
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The funniest thing about the 2012 election was when Bill Clinton made that speech and Republicans everywhere were lining up to talk about how great Clinton was compared to Obama and how well they were able to work with Clinton compared to Obama and how they always all had massive respect for Bill Clinton. 
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Apr 13, 2015 21:52
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computer parts posted:The honorable Senator Tim Tebow. That would keep him from making his triumphant return to the NFL via one of the teams who are totally talking to his agent about signing him. Also the Florida Republicans don't need to stoop to sports stars.
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Apr 14, 2015 03:35
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computer parts posted:The honorable Senator Tim Tebow. Pretty confident tebow is a Republican. PupsOfWar has issued a correction as of 03:43 on Apr 14, 2015 |
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Apr 14, 2015 03:39
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FlamingLiberal posted:The FL Dems have pretty weak candidates. In all honestly it's been like 25 years since the FL Dems had anyone win a statewide election who wasn't Bill Nelson. In a presidential year you would think the Dems would have a good opportunity, but I think it's an uphill battle. Alex Sink got elected CFO in 2006.
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Apr 14, 2015 06:12
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FlamingLiberal posted:The FL Dems have pretty weak candidates. In all honestly it's been like 25 years since the FL Dems had anyone win a statewide election who wasn't Bill Nelson. In a presidential year you would think the Dems would have a good opportunity, but I think it's an uphill battle. What are the odds Florida dems draft the least popular lady from the photolines to run?
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Apr 14, 2015 06:30
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CaptainCarrot posted:Alex Sink got elected CFO in 2006. So what you're saying is that the state party bankrupted itself on yard signs.
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Apr 14, 2015 13:00
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PupsOfWar posted:Pretty confident tebow is a Republican. Yeah be make a stupidly joke during election day 2012 that the Democrats were only in the lead because Republicans hadn't gotten off work yet to go vote. I thought of was doubly funny because the polls hadn't closed in California yet, and I remember thinking "He's going to be really disappointed in the next few hours."
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Apr 14, 2015 15:40
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CaptainCarrot posted:Alex Sink got elected CFO in 2006.
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Apr 14, 2015 17:31
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Early MD Sen primary poll has Cummings 29%, Edwards, 23%, Van Hollen 22%, but Van Hollen has much, much more money than the other two.
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Apr 16, 2015 04:17
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Another Democrat has jumped into the Pennsylvania primary. This time it's Allentown mayor Ed Pawlowksi.
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Apr 18, 2015 02:20
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Sestak will kick that guy's rear end if its just the two of them. What I'm waiting on is a Shapiro announcement. Or, really, anyone else from the Philly suburbs.
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Apr 18, 2015 03:11
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Saw some polls that had Feingold beating Johnson pretty well in Wisconsin. Any chance we'll get Russ back.  Wisconsin has been pretty retarded lately, so I have my doubts.
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Apr 18, 2015 13:19
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In a presidential year he should win.
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Apr 18, 2015 15:26
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I don't know what Johnson did to become so unpopular but he certainly has alienated his state. I think that him and Kirk are dead men walking though Toomey might just make it.
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Apr 18, 2015 15:28
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Cliff Racer posted:I don't know what Johnson did to become so unpopular but he certainly has alienated his state. I think that him and Kirk are dead men walking though Toomey might just make it. Kirk might be able to squeak out a win, maybe. I'd put it at 30/70 pulling it out vs being sent off to the farm.
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Apr 19, 2015 04:21
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Joementum posted:Early MD Sen primary poll has Cummings 29%, Edwards, 23%, Van Hollen 22%, but Van Hollen has much, much more money than the other two. A poll from Cummings' pollster, for anyone who didn't click the link. I'm not familiar with the field enough to know how much of an effect that has.
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Apr 19, 2015 05:52
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Manchin's staying in the Senate, so that seat's safe for the Democrats.
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Apr 19, 2015 16:51
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